Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Nogrod]

Looking at Valier...

Dance1
#75 Tries to dismerit the “lynch the silents”-suggestion by making the point that whatever we do the wolves will accustom their ways accordingly to defeat us.

I know that killing the silent ones may sound like a good idea, but I think it folly. Whatever we say the wolves will certainly take into account. If we say kill the silent ones they will talk lots, if we say kill the loud ones they will back off.

But how does this actually dismerit the plan? Here I think Morm has a point about the cobblery: a cobbler would like to point out that we can’t use any tactics – and would like to dismerit especially Farael’s quite reasonable plan that would make the wolves talking and thence force them out in the open for the following Dances to come.

#100 Thank’s Morm for the vote and promises to come back.

#112 Goes on the footsteps of Folwren:

Oh we need to vote. Well I agree with Folwren on this one. I think Farael putting forth so much posting about killing off the silent ones, then not heeding his own advice to be well... wrong.

As I said earlier this looks like a trial to a safe vote. But it’s also pretty superficial as the reason does not hold a bit.

Dance2
#138 Speculates about reasons why Kitanna was killed and then defends herself against Morm’s suspicions. And surely this looks a bit funny:

Let me just say Morm ALWAYS suspects me the first few days....Not to say that sometimes he isn't right, but this time he has no good evidence at all to point to my wolvishness

Just read the part I have bolded... (it kind of reminds me about wolf-Roa saying “I have never been a wolf before” in one game a long time ago )

#162 She starts to really defend herself against Farael with the most elliptic fashion.

I don't consider myself to be a quiet villager, I just need time to adjust to the game and get a feel for people. This is how I have always played. ... What if you are wrong and you kill all us "silent" ones and we turn out to be Ordos, then you lose out on our help later on.

I think we all need to get the feel for people. Why should someone be immune to lynching because of that? Or why is it worse to mistakingly kill the silents (and lose their help) as the louder ones? In fact I see it the contrary way. The silents turn out to be more scary with every Dance done.
She also thinks that Farael’s plan should include the cobblers too as they should be loud and confusing. I’m not sure if that holds in these first Dances. But anyhow – as I have already said – I think the time to look seriously at the cobblers isn’t yet as we should look primarily at the wolves.

#163 She goes even more odd:

If we keep up with your little plan Farael we shall all find ourselves in a great deal of hurt when there are less and less Ordos around.

Now why is lynching the silent ones going to reduce the number of ordos more than lynching other than silent people? There seems to be no way of knowing that to anyone of us – except the wolves and the cobblers. And if Valier is either of them, then her reaction would indeed point that also another baddie might be among the quiet...
Then there was the misunderstanding stuff.

#164 Correcting the misunderstanding.

I have said that we should concentrate on finding a wolf, but Valier seems to be more cobblerish indeed (if the wolvishness thing wasn't an actual slip). Many of her points would look like that. It is also noteworthy that she has said little or nothing of a relatively large group of people. That would be a perfect cobblery (or wolvery) as her wolf (or wolfmate) would nicely stay uncommented and unlinked to her among a host of people.

I’m not saying she is the cobbler, but a very good candidate for it as far as I can see.

[Nogrod]

Looking at Folwren...

Dance1
#17 Even though mainly defending the silent, does the trick of saying a lot and still nothing:

No...I say, search for the people in the center, but do so without forgetting those on the two farthest side of the spectrum of talkative and silent.

#19 After Celuien says she is not trusting her, she goes to answer:

You can not tell, indeed. Not by my looks or words, perhaps. Maybe you will come to trust me, though. I know not. Nor do I care.

#24 When Lal suspected her of nervousness she defended:

No. Not necessarily something to hide. Fear, maybe.

Somehow I remember her confessing that she does not wish to lie in WW (am I totally at wrong here Foley?). Now as a wolf she would have a hard time and thence might act just like this? 19 has the same posture?

#25

I still do not think it is good to kill the silent ones. Be careful...if you must...consider how they usually are. Those with the habits of being silence and shy should not be killed for it.

So defending the “habitually silents” here. If she indeed is a wolf (or a cobbler) we might have one among the silent... as she so fervently tries to defend them against Farael’s plan?

#34 Cautiously admits Farael might have a point, but just might, after he had made a good and reasonable defence of his plan (#29).

#41 Answers Farael’s suspicion on flip-flopping nicely...

But if you choose to think of me as guilty because you managed to half way convince me, so be it.

#42 Points back to Mac for saying nothing, not too seriously though.

#68 Is appalled by Morm and thinks him cobblerish. Says she will not answer Farael any more and underlines that she is un-Foleyish as she is a countess. Oddly personal-feeling post anyway... So actually appalled (why on earth?) or cleverly trying to look as such? It’s good for a wolf to look genuine.

#98 Gives opinions on some others. Leaves Morm be, disturbed by Farael, has no problem with my suspicion of her, Rikae’s reaction to Morm was not problematic (it was Foleyish), Mac is random but starts to make sense, Holby is full of sense, Valier has not been helpful... Of others she had no opinion.

#108 Main suspects Mac, Morm and Farael. Nicely gathering some quite capable dancers together as suspicious. Then reasons why she will vote for Farael and the vote. Saying also that a personal touch is involved:

This is not out of spite. This is not because he voted for me. It is because I do not like what he has done over all in his dealing with me and my posts.

Follows nicely the path set in 68...

#120 Defends her vote not being a revenge vote (as I had pointed out that she might be a wolf covering behind a payback-looking vote!). The following is also interesting:

This may change. This assumption, this suspicion, may be wrong. But I will not be held accountable if it is.

What?

#126

I do not think it is wise to kill Kath. Just my opinion. No time for more.

If Folwren is a wolf, this is very nice indeed. At the last moment showing good sense and empathy. Looking good?

Dance2
#155 Questioning Farael still, defending her vote from Mac’s questioning. Thinks Morm more a cobbler and Farael more a wolf. Says no comment on Kitanna's death but still saying it was safe.


There is a case to be made for Folwren's lycantrophy. Is it a good one? I need to think about it still... I mean cases can be made.

- If it holds that Folwren wishes not to lie even if she is a wolf her enigmaticness in the first posts and the underlining of her non-Foleyishness and the mask are points to be considered.
- At some stages she seems to take the mask off and act passionately and emphatically. That would be veryvery wise move from a wolf as it looks good always, fair and open.
- Literally last minute defence of Kath in #126 which clearly had no chance of actually affecting the lynch of an innocent looks pretty wolvish whitewash...
- She seems to be very keen on defending the silent ones, even though she doesn't seem to come up with any arguments why we should not lynch them.* Why all this? Because a mate in crime is a silent one? Because trying to gain trust and goodwill of those who feel threathened by the plan without actually gaining suspicion on others (but possibly Farael)?
- Being really quick to defend herself all the time, looking a bit nervous if I may say so.

* I'm not saying we should just lynch the silent (whoever they be now?) and I think neither is Farael. But why she wishes to exclude the possibility in principle?

[Nogrod]

Triple posting then...

I will take a break but still I need to vote early as I will not be home during the evening here (RL).

Just a couple of general suspicions.

I might go for Valier or Folwren because of the thoughts analysing their posts have raised. Need to think.

I'm pretty concerned with Naria as always. It's so hard to tell of her.

Farael I seem to agree with quite consistently. That worries me a lot indeed. Although I hope he would little by little come back to the actual discussion about the wolves and not only what to do if we have no clue about who they might be. That sounds a bit suspicious indeed, cobblerish perhaps?

Most concerned I am about all the people I haven't had time to really look at more closely.

[Nogrod]

Just realised it. Why I am a bit more concerned 'bout Naria this time. With both Valier and Folwren I see the principalled defence of the quiets. Who is the quiet here if not her? If either of them (Valier or Folwren) is a baddie, that would imply Naria as a possible fellow-villain...

[Lalwendë]

Cailin seems to me to be quite well up on who to vote for. OK, she voted for Kath to be lynched. Kath of course, was not, but she was then attacked by the werewolves. Was she judged to be 'on to something'? Cailin has now voted for Valier, against whom there seems to be quite the campaign building. This is as though Cailin at the very least knows something...which in turn makes me wonder why she is also against what now seems to be an anti-mormegil campaign in some quarters.

Nogrod is also very anti-Valier, as is Celuien, who also thinks Nogrod is innocent. Celuien's one-line defence of Eomer seems suspiciously designed to slip underneath the radar.

I think Rikae is innocent because of agreeing with my point of view about the wolves picking on Kitanna in the hope to draw attention to me as a newbie.

[Nogrod]

Nice to see someone else alive here Lal!

But I have to disagree with you on two points.

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

Kath of course [...] was then attacked by the werewolves. Was she judged to be 'on to something'?

It is perfectly possible that there was a cobbler or even a wolf amongst those who voted for Kath (Cailín, Macalaure, Nogrod, Eomer), but it is also possible that Kath was lynched by the innocents while the wolves grinned at the side. That would not be unheard of on first Dances.

I think Rikae is innocent because of agreeing with my point of view about the wolves picking on Kitanna in the hope to draw attention to me as a newbie

I tend to see Kitanna's death more as a safe one. Funny indeed that only those that might be thought to be implied / framed by the kill are talking about the framing? Do you really think that if someone agrees with you then she is innocent?

[Lalwendë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nice to see someone else alive here Lal!

But I have to disagree with you on two points.
It is perfectly possible that there was a cobbler or even a wolf amongst those who voted for Kath (Cailín, Macalaure, Nogrod, Eomer), but it is also possible that Kath was lynched by the innocents while the wolves grinned at the side. That would not be unheard of on first Dances.

That is indeed possible, but statistically speaking, at least one of these is likely not to be innocent. That depends on whether you think the Wolves were hoping to throw in a curveball.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I tend to see Kitanna's death more as a safe one. Funny indeed that only those that might be thought to be implied / framed by the kill are talking about the framing? Do you really think that if someone agrees with you then she is innocent?

Hmmm, of course, Rikae could be hoping to get onto my side. Which means one of several things: 1. Rikae is innocent and wants to find an ally to avoid being voted for. 2. Rikae thinks I am a wolf and hopes to appeal to me. 3. Rikae is a cobbler and thinks I am one of the wolves. 4. Rikae is a wolf and is lining me up for the kill and wishes to avoid the chance of me voting away that opportunity. So there's a half and half chance that Rikae is innocent.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalwendë

So there's a half and half chance that Rikae is innocent.

Good - Bad, 50-50...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm still very interested in why Kitanna was chosen. 7 people garnered votes yesterday; if the wolves wanted a safe kill then they would have chosen one of those who did not get a vote. The vote(s) for, or by, Kitanna are the reason why she was chosen.

Very early today, Valier started the rumours, eager for us to make the suspicious connexion between the deceased Kitanna and Lalwendë, Rikae and (interestingly enough, indirectly) Mormegil. She's going for all these characters.

If this is indeed malicious, then she has overstepped her mark. I think I will vote for her today.

Almost mirroring what Mormegil thought about me (in contrast with history!) I have faith in Nogrod's innocence. He seems very right to me.

[Nogrod]

So 13 remaining of which 4 we wish to get rid of. So one of every three, about.

Here's what I think now.

Folwren - Might be a wolf. Probably my best candidate for it now. Which is not much.

Valier - Could be a cobbler. Mac says she's too nervous to be a wolf. So nervous of what if she's innocent? Maybe she's a cobbler indeed? That would be nerve-wrecking (just think about being afraid from both sides and not able to play for the village victory openly) and explain her nervousness?

Farael - I can't see him as a wolf, at least for the time being. Too loud, too risky. Innocent or cobbler then?

Naria - I'm very much afraid of. Hard to tell but known to perform well when under radar.

mormegil - Could be anything but I wouldn't lynch someone who is not able to defend himself because of RL reasons (but I do hope he will be more involved on Dance3).

Lalwendë - I'm bit confused about her. She seems to be as clever as she always is. Still she seems to pick up somewhat dubious tracks every now and then. It might be newbieness to the game, but with her intelligence I wouldn't put it past her to use that fact to her advantage.

Macalaure - I'm getting to see as back to his considerate self. He might pull it out as a wolf surely, but I would not be voting him today. As I said during the last Dance, he's too good to lynch with light grounds. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look at him closely from time to time.

Rikae - She has been here and there and still I can't quite say what she is. That kind of bothers me. If I would have more time during this Dance I would like to check her next, but unfortunately the clock is ticking too fast to me right now. If we both are alive tomorrow I'll be reading her more closely.

Celuien, Eomer, Cailín, Holbytlass - Sad to say, but I have no clear opinion about these people but that they have posted considered posts. They all look reasonable and cool. And that kind of makes me nervous too. If I'm wrong with my considerations of guilt (those in the head of my list here) and we should see this through pure mathematics, then there should be at least one baddie in this quartet. Pinning the one down would be very hard indeed as the others surely are helpful players none of whom I would want to lose... (although Holby and Eomer have been mostly quiet today)

[Nogrod]

I must quit this Dance now and am most torn between my choices. Voting this early is not nice indeed.

Should I go for a possible wolf and vote for Folwren? She being a wolf seems possible, but I don't know how probable it is...

Should I go for a more believable cobbler and vote for Valier? I don't like bandwaggons, even less early ones, but then again her nervousness would speak even more on behalf of her being the cobbler... But getting a cobbler doesn't equal getting a wolf.

Or should I go to the common denominator of my prime suspects (of which both probably are not true but another might be?) and vote for Naria that I both am afraid of and who could be implied by the steady defence of the silent-ones of both Folwren and Valier? (That would mean that either one should be a cobbler who knows Naria to be the wolf - and basically Folwren, if she is a villain, looks more like a wolf than a cobbler to me)

Gah!

I'll go for the wolf.

++ Folwren

Hope you others have more time to discuss the pros and cons of different possibilities...

[Folwren]

The countess smiles a very small smile and a cold laugh escapes her.

It is very strange to be suspected. (As Foley, I really don't know how I'm going to go about to make a feelingless post when so violently attacked...)

Have I not explained myself to you people several times? My concept is not difficulty, and to my knowledge, it hasn't changed. Dullness of wit, perhaps, keeps you from seeing that.

Nogrod, because you have left and claim that you are not coming back, I suppose I can not change your mind, but I have yet have time, perhaps, to say something that will keep the others from believing you and following your lead. Of course, I am also terribly tempted to let myself be killed. It would be poetic justice, I think, if I were to die and you could see your mistake. All your careful reasoning and thought would come to nothing and you'd have to start over. But, no...I would the true dancers win this round and not let the wolves take over.

Before I make any defence, I will comment on others.

Farael, I don't like your excuses. I don't like them at all. To early in the day to know who was quiet and who wasn't? Well, it was obvious that I certainly wasn't. Perhaps if I had talked less, and not been so bold in some posts, you would vote for someone else who talked enough to make themselves suspicious?

I have no new comments on Mormegil because he is not able to post here today. Nothing new except this - I am inclined to believe that he is not a wolf. I think that if I were wolf and I could not be here for a day, I would not bother to vote. That could be taken incorrectly, people might suspect, it's too dangerous. Besides that, wolves get to kill who they like at night. I wouldn't risk absentee voting.

I have not really paid much attention to Naria. Right now, I am going through all this second Dance's posts. It just struck me a moment ago...Valier said this in her first post of this Dance:

Originally Posted by Valier

Well the first day kill is usually one made well sort of in spite, the wolves can kill pretty much anyone they want the first day and have it not really point to anyone and if it does that could just be a way for them to desguise themselves as innocent.

I am not certain, but I think it makes more sense if she meant to say night instead of first day. Anyhow, she says this, and then Naria say:

Originally Posted by Naria

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

The word 'spite' when talking about killing is brought up again. But this time, it is clear that she was talking about her vote. As for as I understand it, one doesn't generally vote out of spite to kill someone.

But that could just be coincidence...

Valier does seem strangely anxious to appear innocent, BUT her posts of defense have been directed towards Farael because Farael is wanting to lynch the quiet ones and Valier is one of those players who (in my experience) is habitually quiet. I've seen her playing a wolf a couple times and she generally does a really good job of appearing innocent, but she does it in a quiet way, going unnoticed and managing to travel through the game without great fits of trying to explain her innocence when there is no way to tell for certain. I do not have any opinion about her following my lead on voting for Farael. It's a free country, isn't it? (Sorry, that's a joke from our house.) And it's possible that he's guilty, isn't it? On the other hand, it was an easy vote for Valier.

As of this dance, Farael has been consistant. He even voted for a person who is quiet! (But Morm's quiet because he can't help but be quiet.) As some people have mentioned. Farael has managed to keep the conversation wholly on his plan of action, posting many times about it.

Nogrod has been very helpful by bringing up two very strong cases against Valier and myself. He is a strong ally, smart and willing to think things over, and he is a dangerous enemy. I am sorry to have made him suspicious of me, because if he really wants to, I'm sure he could tear me down and get me killed, regardless of my innocence.

I am tending towards letting Lalwende remain unsuspected in my mind. Until either I get more time to consider everyone's votes, or she writes more, I am not going to try to talk myself into suspecting her.

Eomer has posted few times, but he tends to make sense, mostly. My only quarrel with him is the fact that he voted for Kath when I thought she was probably innocent.

I find Celuien's words to make sense. Cailin, too, is nonsuspicious.

I have been distracted all morning (customers coming in and out of the store) and this post is taking me ages to write. I apologize. I'm going to send this and then post again with answers to my accusers.

-- Folwren

[Folwren]

Cross posted with Holbytlass's vote.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Naria

Mac, Yes I read through everything and yes I knew the situation. Simply put, I voted for her out of spite.

This lessens my suspicion... umm... not.

Originally Posted by Farael

If the wolves start killing those that are off the trail hoping to lead us away from their scent, that'll leave only the ordos that are on the trail. If the wolves start killing the ones that are on the trail, then we'll notice it and follow their lead to victory!

What if they mix the two? This is what I do when I'm evil.
I agree with Rikae and Cailin: Farael looks quite cobblerish. I fear the whole debate about his strategy is just one big diversion, and I wouldn't discount the possibility that some baddies rather like to discuss his plan than something of importance. Though I like talkative villages very much, I think Farael seems to be a bit loud just for loudness' sake.

About Valier: As far as I have acquainted her, Wolfier plays the game very cool usually, and probably would've just ignored morm's suspicion and hoped everybody would've forgotten it by the time they vote. She's too nervous to be a wolf, especially when there's no seer.
Though I'm a little suspicious of her, too, I'm really not comfortable with this early bud of a Valier-waggon.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Mac, I didn't vote for Morm because at the moment, I was more suspicious of Farael and Farael still seems more dangerous to me. Do you mind? I am inclined to believe Morm is a cobbler rather than a wolf, if he is anything, and I am also inclined to believe that Farael is a wolf rather than a cobbler, if he is anything.

So you took the little chance to lynch the one you're most suspicious of instead of a good chance to lynch the one you're slightly less suspicious of. I'm not too convinced this makes sense...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another thing that I noticed. Celuien, Folwren and Macalaure seem to have felt a need to vote earlier but still continued following and commenting on the game. I'm not saying that it is suspicious as such not to vote in the end even while you could do so. But there is a chance that this kind of action could speak of a need to steer the lynching and still not to leave oneself too closely scrutinised as not being one of those who will in the end actually need to make the final decisions.

Steer the lynching? Yes, of course. I mean, if I vote for somebody then I want that person to die in the end, naturally. I often vote some time before the deadline to achieve that. Especially when you can retract, it's not the best to wait with the vote til deadline, I think.

I hope I will find the time to take a closer look at Celuien, Nogrod and Eomer later. Very bad karma, very bad.

[Macalaure]

darn no editing rule...

Those names CELUIEN, NOGROD and EOMER need to be bolded.
very, very bad karma...