Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVII - Ballroom Blitz

[Kath]

Yeah, so I forgot we have retractable votes. Apologies for the earlier assumption morm.

Now, we have two Wolves and two Cobblers. Which is more likely to make a mistake, or do something that makes them look wolvish? The whole point of the Cobbler is to help the wolves win by keeping suspicion away from them. In this game that job is made even easier because the Cobbler's know the identity of one of the wolves. It makes sense then to assume that, if a wolf looked to be in danger, the Cobbler that knows it's identity would draw suspicion away. That may be something we need to look for over the Days to come.

As to the fighting between people, notably Rikae and morm, that's a pretty normal Day 1 thing and is likely to settle down. However, there is nothing to say that we don't have a particularly bold Cobbler in Rikae who is getting her known wolf (morm) into the spotlight so that all suspicion falls on him on Day 1 when a lynch is less likely to follow than in later Days.

Glad that Mac has started to 'talk' now. His first post seemed pretty normal to me but it's always nice to get some more information!

I'm going to have to vote a bit early toDay by the way. Dancing does take it out of you and I need a rest (or a trip to the panto in fact!) so my vote will come in the next couple of hours. Right now it may go to Farael, because to me he hasn't been vocal enough. I'm used to him making a point and following it til the death, something we haven't seen from him yet. But that could be because it's Day 1. If it doesn't go to him it may go to Holby because she hasn't really said anything. It's been little poems and answers to others.

Actually having just read back over the first page Farael was quite vociferous in his lynch the silent ones plan so I'm more inclined to go for Holby right now. Hopefully she'll come back and talk a bit more before I'm forced to vote.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

While true that the cobblers want to die for the wolves, it would be folly for them to attract the mob to them so soon. The wise cobbler will not be making a big song and dance on the first day; but as the game progresses expect them to become more vocal.

[Nogrod]

So many said that we should concentrate on the wolves and what are we doing here? Talking of the cobblers...

Don't you think it would just be the thing a cobbler would want? The cobblers may be a key to this game, but only later on, Dance 3, 4 - as has been stated quite a few times (that's why I have not seen any reason to make a grand theory about them as we had better things to discuss earlier I was online).

So just finished reading... and my sis is coming to overnight here with her boyfriend a lot earlier than was talked of so I will have only limited time toDay.

But I'll do what I can.

I mean on the wolves.

[Cailín]

I fear I may not be able to rise again when the orchestra strikes a new tune, so I shall have to cast my vote now. Just gathering my thoughts:

Mormegil - I am undecided on him for now. I am inclined to believe he is innocent, anyway, and do not suspect him enough to vote for him.

Kath - has behaved considerably Kath-like. Kath-like can either mean wolvish or innocent. She has stayed fairly neutral and made a few obvious statements. I quite disagree with her suspicions.

Farael - the whole silence-debate made him look a little suspicious, but I tend to agree with the idea that he appears to determined to be wolvish.

Rikae - the early vote from Morm seemed to have cooled her down a little. As she was part of the debate and voiced her opinions in a strong matter, I think she is an innocent.

Nogrod - Nogrod is always a little dangerous. I do not think it means much that he has not voiced a theory concerning the Cobblers. Quite obviously, he does not want to discuss the matter. This leads me to believe that either he is a Cobbler himself or an ordo with such a brilliant strategy that he does not wish to aid the Cobblers by voicing it. I am thinking that if he were a wolf, he would be trying to advise the Cobblers indirectly. Just a personal opinion that will serve for now.

Lalwende - well, she is new to the game. I know it may sound irrational and a little lame, but it would be brutal to vote for her today. I am suspending judgement. Anyway, I do not think she is a wolf.

Kitanna - sounds innocent.

Naria - I am always a little suspicious of Naria.

Macalaure - I do not know Mac (I think), so I am unsure what to expect. However, his case against Nogrod seems rather flimsy to me. But it is the first dance and all cases will be flimsy.

Celuien - has been careful, neutral and calm. I am currently unsure about her alliance. Wolves generally display such behaviour, but my ancestors (bla-di-bla, you know the deal) well, she is often careful, neutral and calm and always innocent.

Valier - has been extremely silent and not very helpful. But this is traditional and without a Seer, Valier's instincts (if she is innocent and if indeed she still has the same marvellous intuition) may be the best we have to go on.

Eomer - *sigh*

Holbytlass - generally not very contributive, but the few points she made were sound and refreshing.

Folwren - the only one who played a leading role in the debate earlier today who I am slightly suspicious of.

++Kath

I wish I had something more solid than thoughts and feelings to base my vote on, but alas. Her posts unsettled me a little and it is true: she makes a scarily good wolf. I am mostly basing my vote on the fact that she suspects the people who I suspect the least.

[Valier]

Valier stamps her foot and pouts " Why does noone want to dance? This is a dance is it not? Morm you rude boy I was waiting ever so patiently for you to suspect and vote for me today....You didn't disappoint. I don't hold it against you....yet. I am quite frassled today and am not quite sure who is a baddie, but I will be here till the deadline and will be doing some more careful reading"

[Celuien]

Morm --> Rikae, 1
Kitanna --> Morm (Rikae 1, Morm 1)
Farael --> Folwren (Rikae 1, Morm 1, Folwren 1)
Morm X Rikae --> Valier (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1)
Cailin --> Kath (Morm 1, Folwren 1, Valier 1, Kath 1)

I'm not quite sure that I understand Morm's reasoning for thinking that Valier is a cobbler. She raised the typical points against plans that rely on clustering wolves into a particular type of category (silent vs loud) in that a wolf would switch out of the tagged group once it was identified. It's a legitmate objection to make.

Twirls lasso

Well, at this point, morm's behavior is jumping out at me the most. So...

++ Mormegil

[Lalwendë]

Hmmm, time to vote soon?

I think I have two candidates in mind. One has been flying under the radar a little too much to escape my attention (see, trying to escape attention only draws it to you). The other seems to be playing cleverly.

But I'm not saying which is which. Only Father Christmas knows that.

I shall vote for:

++Kitanna

[Macalaure]

Sorry for misunderstanding you, Celuien.
But the problem remains that the wolves don't know who will give them a cobblerish hint. I'm sure it'll be easy to misinterpret and take something an innocent said unknowingly for a cobbler hint. I'm sure the wolves' nightly debates are interesting.

Anyway,

Originally Posted by morm

I do also like the fact that Noggie has come under suspicion...it's about time I say.

What keeps you from adding more points to the case?

I realized Nogrod didn't react to what I said in any way. Last time he did that, he turned out furry.

Following my rule of lynching who says least, Holbytlass, Celuien, Eomer and Naria rise on my radar. Valier didn't say a lot, too, but she never does on the first Dance. I would only vote for one of these if I have no better suspect (which I have at the moment), or when I would need to save somebody I feel innocent.

[Nogrod]

Okay, I decided to post this that I was doing before my sis came. I'll try to fill the holes and argue for any possible things afterwards...

Rikae I still find innocentish looking to her defence and activity. A wolf would not raise so much attention.

Lalwendë is reasonable. Can't compare her ways to anything as I presume no one of us can. So I'm not going for any blind actions.

Morm seems to be enjoying his rude boy character as a Dance1 feat. Nothing really exceptional there. If he's after all a good guy I would really like to have him on our side alive.

Celuien, Kitanna, Cailín, Holby: well-spoken, reasonable, calm... themselves at their best or pulling the wolf-thing very beautifully? We should look at them but at least myself will refrain from voting anyone of them after this Dance. When innocent, they are real assets.

Folwren, well un-Foleyish, but as you rightly corrected, that is no problem as you are countess Folwren now... *puzzled*

Macalaure's post still reads to me as a cobblerish one. I see your point on joke (I saw it then, surely), but why to make it and why to target the people you did? But I wish to be after a wolf toDay and see what Mac does alive... he's a good one when innocent and should not be lynched lightly.

Farael is more than reasonable! I would hold this the most promising thing without my lorebooks which depict him running amok after various people incessantly.

Valier the enigmatic again. She can pull the game too, and beautifully! Alongside Valier I'm most nervous about Kath and Naria. They have this tactics of being relatively quiet at least to begin with and contributing just enough to stay in so as no one wishes to vote for them... And they are all highly intelligent and tricksy if the situation requires.

[Nogrod]

As there seems to be no obvious blunders on the part of the wolves I might stick to this "who says the least" or "who plays the safest" or "who is the most dangerous if we have no clue".

That combination would produce: Kath, Valier and Naria. I do not believe we have both wolves here, but we might have one...

[mormegil]

Celuien, you disappoint me. Going for the easy vote.

[Folwren]

The dance is drawing to an end. The final repetition of the song is being played. Soon, we shall be bowing to our partners and drawing away.

I have little to say. I suspect few people - Mac, Morm, and Farael. Farael because he said we should lynch a silent person the first day and then he went off and voted for me and said that later he may retract his vote and vote for a silent person. This he has not done. Understand, it is not because he voted for me that I am bothered, just that he voted for someone who did not talk very little. According to his earlier posts, I am his ideal person not to vote for this round.

What is more, he said that the reasons I gave to him in response to his first accusation made sense and yet he still doubted me because of a gut feeling.

So, for now, unless something changes in the lsat thirty minutes of time, my vote goes to

++Farael.

This is not out of spite. This is not because he voted for me. It is because I do not like what he has done over all in his dealing with me and my posts.

-- Countess Folwren

[Folwren]

Is mormegil really all that rude on a normal bases? And he wasn't overly rude. He was random, but pointed in his randomness. I have seen a few people say he is....I guess I will take their word for it and leave him be for now.

Farael disturbs me immensely. I do not care if he voted for me, but I do care that he has been saying all this time that he thinks we should lynch a silent person and then he goes after someone who talks.

Nogrod may suspect me, but I have no problem with being suspected. I am a suspectable character, am I not? (Out of character, really, seriously, I am purposefully not acting like Foley.)

Rikae's reaction to Morm's random accusation did not alarm me. I only half read it, but even so, it reminds me of something Foley would do.

I have no had much chance to really read other people's posts. Mac is random, but does not strike me as dangerous. (And he also seems to be making more sense as his posts go on. The others, Kath, Cailin, Celuien, Eomer, Lal....I have not formed any opinion on them.

Holbytlass seems to be filled with sense, even if she is supoosed to jest. She seems stable, and likely to observe before throwing out accusations right and left.

Naria made a good point about Rikae, but I can not say if I agree with it. It is too soon in the game.

Valier has posted once and helped no one in doing so.

I can not stay longer just now...I should be able to get on again before voting time.