Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[the phantom]

Well, it's time. I'd love to be able to actually talk a bit and put forth a real effort, but this five minutes is the only chance I have to post today.

And so, without further delay...

++SPM

--SPM

++Mith

but please save your retraction until later in the Day if you possibly can

I won't be able to be here later today.

The game is now yours to win, SPM.

[The Saucepan Man]

Aaargh! We crossed.

But at least you mande the right choice.

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, looking more carefully, I see that you did read my post before doing that.

You know, this makes you look incredibly innocent, phantom. I cannot see a Wolf taking such a risk, but rather think the Wolf would wish to save his or her vote until the last possible moment. But maybe that's what you want me to think.

Originally Posted by the phantom

The game is now yours to win, SPM.

Actually, the choice is now mine to win or lose the game. I only hope that, for the sake of the village, I make the right choice ...

Back later.

[Mithalwen]

Phantom, my dear, if you are innocent, you have just lost us the game..... ironically I was leaning to the pan man beint the guilty one but my choice is now immaterial it seems... just a question of being lynched or devoured.

Well played Sauce...

[Mithalwen]

Because you can negate a vote of mine to force a tie......

Of course if you are innocent we could gang up on TP ...but youaren't are you....

Been far to confident about my innocence like Ang before... only myself, Fea and a wolf could be certain. Yes it would require more restrain and forethought than characteristic to pull off the bravura performance necessary but only the wolf could know that it was impossible...

*sighs*

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, there is little sense in me making out a case for the phantom being the Wolf, as he will seemingly not be returning to respond. Suffice to say that there is sufficient evidence to view him as a possible Wolf, but at the same time I somehow get the impression that he is innocent. That said, I can see myself voting for him, if only to avoid the humiliation of having been outwitted by him.

Since Mith is likely to be here later toDay, I will set out my thinking on her in order that she has an opportunity to respond before I cast my vote.

Day 1

This really is a bit of a Donald Rumsfeld farewell game ... known unknowns and no doubt many unknown unknowns.... so stabbing in the dark may be order of the day....

Reinforces the random nature of the game and could have been calculated to induce a sense of pessimism within the village. A pessimistic village, it seems to me better serves a Wolf, rather than the village itself.

Me? Not really in either category - I was spectacularly lucky in my successful wolvish outing. Ayway I'm not a wolf this time so... I maybe the weakest link .. the innocent you could most afford to lose... but I hope it won't be goodbye just yet ... this is befuddling but far from dull and I would like to stay a while......

Could be an early and subtle attempt to throw us off the scent by playing herself down as a danger.

I am inclined to think that the Pan Man is innocent because it makes more sense ... it would be a bit risky and attention seeking for so early in the discussion. But while I am good at spotting a cobblerish Pan Man I find it hard to read him when he plays a less ambiguous role .... but I could vote for him to maintain the tradition if you so wish .. but I don't think it would be a great choice ...

The phantom is not a priority either ... he is being quite constructive... and tooo obvious.... but he and Fea have such a convoluted history .... argh .... make me the village contortionist I am getting into knots...

As the phantom noted, this post is interesting, given that it is the two of us who are left with her at the end.

I can't resist but though it be madness there is a little method in it... I do have to go now. I feel a vote for any of my other random suspects might be too significant at this early stage. I feel votes are going to be very spread out and two or three might be enough to seal someone's fate.... on this most random of first days I shall be completely random .... and risk the consequences if my fellow villagers think I am copping out... which is a valid perspective but heigh ho....

Seeks to explain her “random” vote for Bêthberry in reasonable terms, possibly aware that it is a relatively high-risk strategy for a Wolf to draw such attention to herself on Day 1.

Day 2

Fea's narration does suggest Morm was a wolf but better to assume we have two to find....

Introducing uncertainty as to the number of Wolves left - suits a Wolf more than it suits the village.

My vote for BB was half punt in response to the unknown situation ... ...half course of action least likely to cause harm....... had I been a wolf I would erred on the side of not being so attention seeking.. and not giving the rest of you an easy excuse to lynch me in absentia.

Staunch defence of her vote for Bêthberry - suits a Wolf to seek to establish as early as possible that it was not the likely vote of a Wolf.

No, it is what I expected after mormegil's role was not specified... Fea was unlikely ot waive the divine right of moderators . We are her Lab rats and she will want as much amusement as possible. She has waited a long time for this and was so certain on who she wanted ... she has a purpose ...... whether there is any system or code that will allow us to understand or whether we are dependant simply on luck I am not sure.

Personally I am going to roll with it....and see what happens....

Again, emphasising the randomness of the game might be seen as suiting a Wolf better than an innocent.

Oh yes... I wonder if there is any point in us speculating why each of us was chosen? I assume I was to be a loose cannon ... which is not something I am actively trying to be but is often a by-product of my personality ....

Would fit the idea we have of what Fea intended for this game – a “loose canon” Wolf.

Yes that is one of the things that annoys me ..I mean TP is not known for his modesty but the implication that only the Pan man is clever enough to be worth communicating with is a little insulting ... but what do I know ... having announced me strange for my vote and then dismissed as being too random to be a threat to the wolves ...

Might this be Wolfish discomfort at the attempts of the phantom and I to explore the possibility of forming an uneasy alliance?

Chaos is my natural environment, so I think this game disconcerts me less sinceI knew it would be a magical mystery tour from the beginning. RL is so crazy this seems quite relaxing (and I must vote soonish for the ancient parent is still housebound and zimmer-framed and has been alone all day..). The fact this is so bizarre and that I am objectively probably the weakest player mean I have nothing to prove, no particular responsibility..it is quite liberating.. but I am fairly clueless...

Again emphasising the random nature of the game (her natural environment, she says), and the self-deprecating comments are again possibly calculated to make us feel more comfortable about her - to portray herself as little threat.

I will throw in my lot with my liege lord in another place...

A very quick vote for Eomer on the basis of Ang’s “trap”, putting him on 2 votes, tied with Diamond. Not really a lot in this, given that it was only the 2nd vote, but the haste with which she jumped on Ang’s reasoning might be seen as alarming.

Day 3

However it depends how genuinely random the second wolf was ... and we can't be certain that Eomer whetehr Eomer was "chosen" or "random". As a mod, it is tempting to restart the random selection if the balance looks wrong. However with no gifteds and a high calibre group of players it is less likely to be tempted to tinker than if you draw very experienced gifted versus a team of wolves who are novice, notoriously absent, isolated by timezone, or vice versa

An attempt to muddy the waters?

Day 4

Blimey .. that is a surprise ......... to kill someone that no one could possible ever discount as a wolf without a seer's confirmation is either brave, foolish or eccentric .....

Is Mith brave, foolish or eccentric? I’ll say no more on that, save to note that it might suit a Wolfish Mith openly to describe the Wolf in terms that either are not traditionally associated with her or which it might be considered impolite to apply to her. Also, of the three of us left, Mith is the most likely to express surprise at her own choice of kill.

There is that other outside possibility that Morm was a wolf and Fea is messing with our heads by picking off unlikely folk at night..

More water muddying?

I think it was you who said something about my Bethberry vote being safe looking back ... well hindsight is great isn't it? But anyone who has played a few games of werewolf knows how people can get lynched for very little on day one.

Voting for Bethberry would not have been be a good choice for a wolf because:

a, far too attention seeking and conspicuous.

b, there was a possibility that others might have joined me "in a let's see what happens" approach..... now as has been pointed out, wolfs as lone operators are nearer their goal if anyone else gets lynched. The risk of "wasting" a kill on Bethberry would to my mind rile the wolves more than innocents. A couple of people were anti my punt I must look back and see who they were.

Paranoia does seem to be taking root... heigho...

More justification for her Bêthberry vote – she has consistently relied on this defence on the few occasions that suspicions have been raised against her. Also, perhaps suggesting that anyone who might consider her a suspect is being paranoid.

Day 5

I wonder if the wolf has factored that in to his kill choices... also knowing that I cannot possibly be around to so long becasu eI must vote early and inconclusively...

The reference to Thanksgiving Day was plain confusing (to me at least). More muddying of the waters? Also possibly looking for sympathy on the basis of her enforced vote timing?

I think you, Sauce, said something about Di wanting ot tie up the vote at the end, and it did make me wonder if it suited the wolf to have fewer people around at the end of the day (hence mainly US side night kills) and possibly to keep someone who would have to vote early always.. who couldn't retract ..

To be honest this theory is based partly on successful wolf game when on the last day I just had to wait for one innocent to get a vote and it was game over.
The rules were rather different - can't retract, in event of a tie first to the tied number of votes dies... but I just thought it worth mentioning as a possibility...

Interesting that she was already thinking about how the final Day might go. I didn’t really think about that until toDay. But emphasising the tactical issues surrounding her voting time might be seen as a bad move for a Wolf in her position (ie generally required to vote early on).

I can only repeat that I may be a bit crazy but I am an accountant, however (to use a Pratchettism) "bursar" I had gone, as a wolf, I would not have risked wasting a kill for fun. That would not be prudent.....

However if you lynch me it would force the wolf to kill someone else tonight which might be more helpful than my death.

Yet again relying on that Bêthberry vote. And playing a bit for sympathy. As if to say: “Go on, lynch me if you must. I’m innocent, but you can afford to do without me”. A tactic that has been used by Wolves in the past. Also, seems a bit over the top, as she was in little danger of being lynched at the time.

I have to go soon and I think I am going to vote for Diamond.

Kath has pulled the wool over my eyes before and I will kick myself if she is tha wolf but I think she has been a bit too disengaged to be a wolf. If she is a wolf her lack of involvement would be a dampener.

Phantom and PanMan ..I have been suspectiong you alternately and can't decide....

Diamond..... also quiet but manipulative. Could be classic flying under radar wolf.

Have an inkling she would have been keener than most to get Roa out of the way...

Comments ..or are you boys going to lynch me?

A possible “testing the water” post? The phantom had already indicated he was leaning towards voting for Diamond, so it would make sense for a Wolfish Mith to test alternative possibilities, while suggesting that she was most likely to vote for her.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If you're the WW all you have to do is get Di lynched today and leave Kath and I alive for tomorrow, for I will be voting for her.

Did Mith deliberately not follow this suggestion because it might point too obviously to her?

Conclusions

1. Mith has consistently relied upon the Bêthberry vote as the key indicator of her innocence. It could well be that she took a calculated risk on Day 1 in order to provide herself with this defence for the remainder of the game. It has certainly served her well up to now.

2. On a number of occasions, Mith has sought to play herself down as a danger, portraying herself as “the weakest linkest”, a “loose canon”, the "weakest player" and the villager that the village can best afford to lose. I can’t help but think that these sort of comments have contributed towards her being somewhat overlooked as a possible Wolf. Whereas, contrary to the impression that she has sought to give, Mith is an extremely capable player and a most dangerous adversary.

3. Although I have not posted the occasions when Mith has provided seemingly helpful analysis, many of her stated thoughts do seem to be directed towards emphasising the random and unpredictable nature of this game, possibly to reinforce any pessimism that we might have had over the chances of catching a Wolf. Similarly, much of her analysis might be seen as muddying the waters, obfuscating rather than clarifying. Obviously, heightened confusion best serves the Wolfish interests.

4. Mith has played in a manner consistent with Fea’s plans – random and unpredictable. She also (unlike the phantom) might be seen as having provided a good counterbalance to Eomer of the Wolfirrim.

Mith, although this post has focused almost exclusively on you, I should make clear that my mind is far from made up. It’s just that I have been concentrating on the phantom for much of the game, and have somewhat overlooked you so far.

I shall not be voting until much later in the Day. I would welcome the opportunity to consider your thoughts on the phantom.

Btw – I think that it’s pretty clear by now that I am innocent. Were I the Wolf, I would not be expending such effort on trying to ensure that I make the right choice. Rather, I would by now have taken the game by simply following up the phantom’s final vote with a vote for you, Mith. If you vote for me, it would not, were I the Wolf, save you, but it would seal the phantom’s victory, if he is the Wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Of course if you are innocent we could gang up on TP ...but youaren't are you....

Actually, I am innocent, as I hope is clear by now (although you might well have known that before).

[Mithalwen]

OK .. well the simply fact is I am innocent, and there is no danger of you having to fulfil your pledge of gift wrapping.

What I have said has been honest .. not playing for sympathy. I regard it as a simple statemen of fact that I am one of the weakest players. But having had lunch I realise that since a vote for you is pointless, the only hope is that I am wrong about you and to vote phantom.

Certainly I wonder if you would bother to write such a long post if you knew the victory was in the bag as I assumed.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

... there is no danger of you having to fulfil your pledge of gift wrapping.

Yes, I was mindful of that. However, should I determine you to be our lupine tormentor, I shall see you lynched ere I fulfill that pledge. I never said that I would feed myself to you while you yet lived.

What to make of Mith's stated assumption as to my guilt and impending victory, following the phantom's vote? Surely, her best plan as a Wolf would be to try her best to persuade me to vote for the phantom. Or would that be too obvious? More subtle, I suppose to persuade me of her own innocence by pretending to be misguided in thinking me to be the final Wolf.

I can't help feeling that I'm over-thinking this ...

I could really do with some relatively trustworthy opions here, but alas there is little prospect of that.

This is horrible!

At least if you were to vote for me, Mith, it would take the decision out of my hands. But then, you would only do that if you were innocent, and it would therefore hand the game to the phantom

Indeed, to avoid the prospect of that happening, I am going to vote now as a security measure. If there is to be a coin flip at the end of the Day, I would prefer that it be between the phantom and Mith, rather than between Mith and I.

++the phantom

That vote is not cast in stone by any means. Then again, perhaps it would be fitting, in the context of this game, to leave it at that and allow lady luck to determine the winner. It would, at least, take the onerous decision away from me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Yes it would require more restrain and forethought than characteristic to pull off the bravura performance ...

This is true. If you are the Wolf, you have played a blinder and I am tempted to accede to your victory in recognition of that.

If the phantom is the Wolf, he too has played a stunningly good game. However, it will have relied primarily on gaining my trust and keeping me alive. And I am not sure that I am happy about having been used in that way.

I am therefore more tempted to risk a MithWolf victory than a phantom Wolf victory.

Another thing. The phantom feels innocent to me. And I can't help but think that the phantom is at his most dangerous when he is coming across as innocent.