Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Honestly, do you think I'd kill lmp and Roa?

No, I don’t. Indeed, I am still as sure as I can be that you are innocent. The paranoia is still there, but I harnessed it for the purposes of my earlier vote. And the other reasoning was the best that I could come up with at the time. I am surprised that you didn’t lay into it more than you did.

My apologies, old bean, but I was using you as bait for one of those “honey trap” thingummyjigs. Unfortunately, it appears that my target was not tempted to bite.

The target in question being the honey-tongued honey-trapper himself, Anguirel. And I rather think that he spotted my clumsily sprung trap. After all, his reason for not voting for the phantom was so as not to start a TP-SpM race. Which was hardly likely when I had not attracted any votes at the time and a fair few others had. Rather weak reasoning for not switching from a (pointless) vote for the Dark Lady, to one whom he claims to suspect.

You see, when I reviewed the thread earlier, I noticed a few things about our Ang (a few of which have been picked up by other since).

He was dismissive of the phantom’s attempts to insist that strategy was of no avail to us, which might suggest that he had fallen into the phantom’s little trap himself.

He was the most interested of all the villagers in my suggestion that the Wolves were in competition. The only other villager to express any interest (other than as a basis for suspecting me) was Eomer.

As Kath has pointed out, he has indulged in the classic Wolfish ploy of putting forward theories which self-confessedly implicate himself (something, it should be noted, that Eomer did). Not just when setting out his views of whom Fea would be likely to pick as a Wolf (his top picks, as I recall, being himself and Eomer), but also on the whole “grudge” issue. It was he who first raised the possibility that the Wolves might have been chosen on the basis of grudges. And when Kath suggested that we confess our grudges, he pointedly noted that he would not come out well from such a list before agreeing that it might be worth a shot. He also spent a fair amount of time on the first Day itemising the various grudges that he has against the phantom.

Also, as Nogrod has pointed out, this light-hearted approach of his has (if he is a Wolf) served him well as it has diverted suspicion away from him (until toDay, he had hardly been suspected, nor had he attracted any votes). He has also presented himself as an engaging chap, without whom the game would be worse off. Who would wish to vote off such an entertaining asset to our proceedings? And yet, he has also shown himself capable of serious thought and active participation at times. This switching between the light-hearted and the serious has had me concerned for some time. For a while, I was merely frustrated at his fiddling while our village (metaphorically) burnt. But now, I am wondering whether there might be something more sinister to it.

Many of his light-hearted contributions, I might add, have been employed in efforts to delight the Dark Lady, responding as he has to her literary interventions in kind. Might these be attempts to curry favour with his mistress?

And, finally, I noticed that he has done various things which might be seen as testing the water for possible lynch candidates. His vote for the phantom on Day 1 was followed by a number of votes which very nearly saw the phantom felled on the very first Day. He started off the series of events which led to Eomer’s demise (possibly in order to eliminate a rival that he had spotted, possibly simply to rid himself of one who he perceived as a dangerous innocent). On Day 3, he tested to see whether there was any appetite to lynch me, and when there appeared to be little, he switched to Roa instead. Roa was very nearly lynched but, when she was not, she was murdered in the Night instead.

But most of all, he has seemed continually to be testing the water to see whether there might be any prospect of lynching the phantom. Several times during the course of the game, he has indicated that he might consider voting for the phantom (at times jokingly, but this jocular approach might well merely be serving as cover). You see, I think that a Wolfish Anguirel wants to rid himself of his self-confessed nemesis, the phantom, and yet would not stoop so low as to kill him at Night. He wants to see this particular enemy laid low in a fair fight - by getting him lynched. That, in my experience, would be Anguirel all-over.

That’s why I chose the phantom as the bait for my trap. It may seem strange to vote for him when he did not fall into the trap but, as I said, I believe that he managed spot it and skilfully steered clear.

His avoidance of the trap notwithstanding, I still believe him to be our last Wolf.

-- the phantom
++ Anguirel

Note that I typed most of this out before I saw Diamond’s vote for the phantom. It is possible that she is the Wolf who has fallen for the bait, but I am more convinced of Ang’s guilt for now. If I am wrong, she may well bear reconsideration.

[The Saucepan Man]

Updated voting:

Ang for Fea (1)
SPM for tp (1)
Mith for Kath (1)
Kath for Ang (1)
Nog for Ang (2)
tp for Kath (2)
Di for tp (2)
SpM take back tp (1)
SpM for Ang (3)

[Diamond18]

Trap schmap. It just delights me to do things that are terribly wolfish and illogical.

Such as....

- - tp

++Ang

Since there seems little hope of killing tp now.

[the phantom]

I'm back.

I'm not sure what to think here. I thought for sure that Ang would respond to those last three posts I made before I left. I even thought it likely that he would tack on his vote to Kath, but he didn't. Is he gone, or is he biding his time?

And SPM and Di, I didn't expect to see you. It's nice to see some other faces around.

Meh- not so much Di, seeing as she voted for me. But I suppose I had it coming from her after I about killed her on Day 1.

(ooh, I just refreshed my window and saw that you changed your vote, thanks thanks)

SPM, I'm relieved that you changed your vote. I kept saying to myself "Surely he doesn't truly honestly think I am the WW", but since you spoke of not returning I was afraid that you really meant what you said.

Your case against Ang is compelling. I told Nogrod earlier that his was as well. And when I asked Ang a bit ago in what other village he acted like he is acting now, he said to check WW X. It seemed like too convenient of an answer to me. He was a Ranger in that village. Surely he wasn't blind to the fact that he also acted off the wall in WW I when he was a WW. Why didn't he mention that one?

Originally Posted by SPM

As Kath has pointed out, he has indulged in the classic Wolfish ploy of putting forward theories which self-confessedly implicate himself (something, it should be noted, that Eomer did).

I guess I haven't been reading carefully enough. I missed this.

Originally Posted by SPM

But most of all, he has seemed continually to be testing the water to see whether there might be any prospect of lynching the phantom. Several times during the course of the game, he has indicated that he might consider voting for the phantom (at times jokingly, but this jocular approach might well merely be serving as cover). You see, I think that a Wolfish Anguirel wants to rid himself of his self-confessed nemesis, the phantom, and yet would not stoop so low as to kill him at Night. He wants to see this particular enemy laid low in a fair fight - by getting him lynched. That, in my experience, would be Anguirel all-over.

I do agree with that point. And I would say that is also speaks to his guilt that he hasn't come after me full bore, but has rather been "testing the waters" as you said. Since I've been placing him on my very very innocent list up till today, I don't think he saw it as being worth the risk of going after me completely, and certainly not worth it to kill me in the night. Why put yourself at risk to kill someone who is going along with you? Just keep me around and keep pointing a finger or two at me and be prepared to lynch me if the occasion arises. I can see that.

But at the same time, I'm not as confident about lynching Ang as I was about lynching Eomer.

This might sound stupid, but I'm trying to figure out if my desire to keep Ang alive is based on logic, or partially on emotion because of his rotten luck with me over the years. It's like I feel that I owe it to him, to save him for once rather than kill him.

Maybe I should want him to be lynched just to be rid of the complication and clear my head? *sigh* I suppose he is one of my suspects and is not one of the individuals on my innocent list, so I guess my refusal to lynch him doesn't make much sense.

Ah, but as I count up the votes I see that the matter is pretty well settled.

I suppose I should tack on my Ang vote and make it final.

Bleh. I agree logically with everything that's been said about him, but I'll just feel so terrible if we're wrong and I kill him yet again.

[Diamond18]

I don't think that SpM, Mith, Kath, or even Nogrod are the wolf. That leaves Tp and Ang, and I wouldn't be surprised about them either way -- wolf or innocent. However, SpM's analysis does make me feel like Ang is the more logical choice. But then, SpM is good at that.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

Oh, and nice pic, Ang. She's not bad, but that obviously isn't Fea. L's prettier.

Originally Posted by Fea

You know that won't help you win, right?

Maybe not, but I bet it made you smile.

[the phantom]

Okay, let's put this out of reach. I don't really want to see a coin flip.

--Kath
++Ang