WWJ XIII: 'Til Death Do We LARP

[CaptainofDespair]

Interesting, Farael. You continue such direct attacks against me. Perhaps trying to frame me to get me killed once and for all? I know you relish the thought.

And I find it interesting that you seem so certain you know why Thinlomien was killed and not Nogrod.

But you leave out one crucial factor. I am smart enough to see the benefit of killing Nogrod. It makes more sense, even to me.

You could be our wolf, easily, Farael. You have wonderful little theories abour why I could be it...yet those ideas could well be taken from your own playbook.

And Valier, I will say this: I have gotten through this on being both lucky, and being a distraction. Granted, you all started that distraction. But in any case, I became a good cover for the wolves, it seems.

[Farael]

See, that's what I don't like CoD... you are saying "if I was a wolf..." and yet, why should we trust you?

Why should you trust me? well, you figure that out... but I think I've proven my innocence by actions, not by speaking, unlike you my friend.

I wouldn't write Valier off just yet, only because of the whole episode with CobleRune thinking Naria the wolf a wolf and CoD an ordo (which probably lead to the death of CobleRune but if we ignore that, I'd grab my ptichfork in a moment and be done with you CoD

Yet we can't ignore it... question is, do we really know why the wolves killed Rune? after all, he was not really contributing a whole lot, which fits the MO of the wolves at the time, they were killing those that spoke little.

Did they take a chance? did they actually think that Rune was the seer because he nailed Naria? now what if CoD IS a wolf and they figured that killing Rune would exonerate whoever survived between him or Naria?

We don't know what the wolves thought, maybe they just lucked out and hadn't seen those comments... and then they ran along when Loomy brought it up.... or maybe they had it all planned out, and were waiting for someone to point it out before doing it themselves.

What's my point?

Well, while Valier seems the most logical choice, we should still do as much analysis as we can, and ultimately it is up to us.

[Farael]

Well, it all winds down to this... I won't be online tomorrow at all and thus I have to cast my vote and pray for the best. If I am wrong, I sure hope that the two remaining ordos will cast their vote for the wolf before s/he comes in to vote.

Now for my reasoning. Valier is the logical choice, but solely based on one episode and a series of assumptions by many of us. If it wasn't for the whole deal with Rune I wouldn't even hesitate. But then, it is a fairly logical assumption that the wolves panicked thinking Rune was the Seer.

On the other hand, I've been suspecting CoD all game long, and all he has done was defend himself. I can't recall him making any strong cases, other than his self-defence he has been tossing suspicion around lightly and going along with the flow for the most part.

Last night though was a big deal for me. Since Loomy suspected Valier I think that the wolf was trying to frame her. We could argue for a double-bluff, but I think that we ordos consistently think too much of the wolves. Nine out of ten times, they won't multiple-bluff.

I know I'm an ordo, Nogrod is an ordo too, so that leaves the one I've suspected all along

++CoD.

And if I'm wrong, then may Eru have mercy on our souls.

Best of lucks for the end of the day. I hope I haven't just condemned us all... and the worst part is that I will not know until late tomorrow night.

[Nogrod]

*crosses fingers*

If CoD is innocent, the wolf has practically won. But as long as it won't come in and vote we have hope left.

If Farael himself is not our wolf who got unlucky by RL and had to vote first...

I'll be back a bit later.

[Nogrod]

Okay. First the vote-tally from this game. Analysis of it in the next post.

Day1
Lommy --> CoD (CoD1)
Gurthang --> Anguirel (CoD1, Ang1)
Rune --> Volo (CoD1, Ang1, Volo1)
Volo --> CoD (CoD2, Ang1, Volo1)
Anguirel --> Diamond (CoD2, Ang1, Volo1, Di1)
Boromir --> Farael (CoD2, Ang1, Volo1, Di1, Farael1)
CoD --> Lommy (CoD2, Ang1, Volo1, Di1, Farael1, Lommy1)
Rikae --> CoD (CoD3, Ang1, Volo1, Di1, Farael1, Lommy1)
Diamond --> Anguirel (CoD3, Ang2, Volo1, Di1, Farael1, Lommy1)
Durelin --> Anguirel (CoD3, Ang3, Volo1, Di1, Farael1, Lommy1)
Nogrod – Anguirel (CoD3, Ang4, Volo1, Di1, Farael1, Lommy1)
Valier – Di (CoD3, Ang3, Volo1, Di2, Farael1, Lommy1)
Farael – no vote
Naria – no vote

Rikae dead by Night

Day2
Gurthang --> Durelin (Durelin1)
Boromir --> Gurthang (Durelin1, Gurthang1)
Naria --> CoD (Durelin1, Gurthang1, CoD1)
Diamond --> Naria (Durelin1, Gurthang1, CoD1, Naria1)
Lommy --> Gurthang (Durelin1, Gurthang2, CoD1, Naria1)
Rune --> Naria (Durelin1, Gurthang2, CoD1, Naria2)
Durelin --> Gurthang (Durelin1, Gurthang3, CoD1, Naria2)
CoD --> Naria (Durelin1, Gurthang3, CoD1, Naria3)
Gurthang – [-] Durelin (Gurthang3, CoD1, Naria3)
Valier – Gurthang (Gurthang4, CoD1, Naria3)
Nogrod – Gurthang (Gurthang5, CoD1, Naria3)
Gurthang – Gurthang (Gurthang6, CoD1, Naria3)
Farael (on overtime) – Durelin (Gurthang6, CoD1, Naria3, Durelin1)
Farael – [-] Durelin, [+] CoD (Gurthang6, CoD2, Naria3)
Volo – no vote

Rune the cobbler dead by Night

Day3
Volo --> CoD (CoD1)
Di --> Naria (CoD1, Naria1)
CoD --> Naria (CoD1, Naria2)
Lommy – Naria (CoD1, Naria3)
Valier – CoD (CoD2, Naria3)
Boro – Farael (CoD2, Naria3, Farael1)
Nogrod – Farael (CoD2, Naria3, Farael2)
Durelin – Naria (CoD2, Naria4, Farael2)
Naria – no vote
Farael – no vote

Diamond dead by night

Day4
Nogrod – Boro (Boro1)
Lommy – Boro (2)
Farael – Boro (3)
CoD – Boro (4)
Valier – Boro (5)
Boro – Lommy (Boro5, Lommy1)
Volo – Boro (Boro6, Lommy1)
Durelin – Boro (Boro7, Lommy1)

Durelin the Seer dead by Night

Day5
Lommy --> Volo (Volo1)
Farael --> Volo (Volo2)
Valier --> Volo (Volo3)
CoD – Volo (Volo4)
Volo – Valier (Volo4, Valier1)
Nogrod – no vote

Lommy dead by Night

[Nogrod]

Analysis based on the voting record.

Valier
Day1: Did not wish to break the tie between Ang and CoD. Looks innocentish as it would be too eyebrow-raising were she a wolf?
Day2: Puts Gurthang in the lead over wolf-Naria with 1-2 votes still coming (Volo had said not to be there and Farael had been away, so possibly only one vote left and thence a decider?). Could be seen as saving a pal but then again a bit too bold maybe?
Day3: Voting for CoD and thence easing the pressure on wolf-Naria by lifting CoD to the game (after her vote CoD2, Naria3). Again helping a friend but looking a bit too bold?
Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise...
Day5: Bandwaggoned Volo and gave the deciding vote actually lynching him.

She has not been suspected in earnest in the whole game and not voted either. Her voting record yells for a wolf, a bold and friend-helping wolf indeed. Could that be? If we think our wolf is confident, she would look like it.

Farael
Day1: No vote. Voted by Boro-wolf.
Day2: Votes overtime for Durelin and then changes to CoD. The vote not counted.
Day3: No vote. Voted by Boro-wolf (but there was no actual danger of Farael being lynched, if he’s a fellow to Boro)
Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise...
Day5: Gave the second vote for Volo. Safe.

He has been heavily suspected by Boro-wolf and voted by him too, but has actually not been in great danger from it. So possibly a scheme? His voting record looks terrible (two no-votes and one overtime, one “compulsory” and one “safe” vote) and is hard to draw on. Anyhow all this eases my suspicions on him a bit.

CoD
Day1: Voted Lommy in retaliation and thence spreaded voting even though he himself was in the lead.
Day2: Voted by wolf-Naria and retaliated, putting her at level with Gurthang, above all others.
Day3: Continued against wolf-Naria, making her lead the tally with one vote.
Day4: Couldn’t have voted otherwise...
Day5: Vote for Volo which had no meaning whatsoever anymore as Volo was already dead (Volo had voted for CoD a few times before, so from the way CoD seems to play that looks reasonable, though).

Even though I don’t approve of his reasons for voting, his relation to wolf-Naria looks not wolvish, on the contrary. So might be innocent then?

[Nogrod]

If Farael is the wolf and will be gone as he said he will be, we might yet be saved as no wolf will be rushing in to claim victory toDay.

If CoD is a wolf the same thing will happen: no rushing in wolves to be seen toDay.

So if no one claims victory before the last moments of the Day myself and Valier need to come up with a choice between the two.

If Valier is a wolf (which I consider at the moment most likely of you three), we're dead already unless me and CoD vote her before she gets back online.

But if I'm wrong here and vote for Valier the innocent, then CoD, if wolf, will be let out from the tight spot he is now and will carry the Day and the game...


If Valier is a wolf she will come and claim victory by voting CoD. If she is not, she will come in with a complaint of the following:

In Valier's play there seems to be a pattern and a logic - albeit quite a bold one and CoD's voting Naria twice looks pretty unwolvish.

++ Valier

I'm looking worwards to you entering Valier. If you come in before CoD and do not claim victory but protest my vote, I will retract it.

CoD, if you're the wolf...

But if you CoD are innocent, remember that if Valier has already been in and wailing for my vote and not claiming victory by voting you, then she is not the wolf - and thence Farael is!

A lot depends just on who comes in the next...