Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[The Saucepan Man]

Gotta do it now, if I'm going to do it.

--Roa_Aoife

++Estelyn Telcontar

[The Saucepan Man]

Ai! Utter confusion!

[Estelyn Telcontar]

phantom's vote made Roa 4
Saucy's made me 4

The Dark Lady will have to roll dice, then a head.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Saucy, I wish you'd have understood phantom's reasoning - he was right about me. Time will show.

[The Saucepan Man]

No, as I retracted Roa, Esty will be the one lynched.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

So if I had stayed happily asleep, would I have survived instead?

[Nogrod]

I think Fea said that in the case of a deuce she will flip a coin - and that means... that she will flip a coin in her way?

[the phantom]

What would be amusing is if we caused a tie and Fea flipped the coin but it landed on its side.

I suppose that would mean that SPM would die, right?

It was fun, Esty. I tried to save you. Die honorably, and rest in peace.

[Diamond18]

After all this, a tie. That's what I was going for an hour ago!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

One woman of the village had lain awake, watching the fading wick and flickering flame, touching her fingertips to the melted wax and rolling it to soft putty between them. She had loved the gravedigger as a brother, and she had wept over his senseless death, and she had known... known it could not be long for her. When her companions, her deadly companions, had spoken against her, she had known.

She laid awake in the darkness, watching her light dwindle, feeling the draft through the open window she had been certain to close and lock. She knew. She had heard the call, seen the darkest sliver of night in motion. It was time, and she whispered pretty thoughts, sad thoughts, thoughts of days she could not know to herself with brief clarity of finality.

"To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow," she murmured, no fear in her eyes, "creeps in this petty place from day to night and night to day, to the last syllable of recorded time; and all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle! Life is nothing. This too brief life is nothing; fleeting and bitter and cruel. We are all but walking shadows."

She looked to her ceiling and let her eyes close. A soft tendril breath of breeze unlit her candle, and as the dark came, so did her long goodnight.

When the village awoke, their sweet Roa was not amongst them.

[the phantom]

I was about to leap in with posting and give my thoughts, but instead I wish to sit back and observe for a bit. I have what I believe to be a couple of important points to make, but if I post them, I'm afraid that if my thoughts are too compelling in certain areas some of you might just use me as the starting point and take off from there. Instead of that happening I should very much like to see how some of you would choose to start the day yourself and to see which path you would have us follow without anyone else running ahead first.

I will post a tally and a voting breakdown of yesterday in the next little while, but that's all for a bit.

[the phantom]

Yesterday's voting-

Ang for SPM (1)
Roa for Esty (1)
Esty for SPM (2)
SPM for Roa (1)
Mith for Esty (2)
Ang take back SPM (1)
Ang for Roa (2)
Nog for Kath (1)
Di for Kath (2)
Di take back Kath (1)
Di for SPM (2)
Esty take back SPM (1)
Esty for Roa (3)
Nog take back Kath (0)
Nog for Esty (3)
tp for Roa (4)
SPM take back Roa (3)
SPM for Esty (4)

[the phantom]

THE LIVING-

Anguirel
Diamond18
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

THE DEAD-

Boromir88 (innocent)- bravely faced the gallows on Day 1
mormegil (innocent)- bled by the WWs on Night 2
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Werewolf)- outed by shrewd villagers on Day 2
littlemanpoet (innocent)- lain carefully in grave on Night 3
Estelyn Telcontar (innocent)- kicked the bucket on Day 3
Roa_Aoife (innocent)- dreams invaded by a WW on Night 4

[the phantom]

Bleh... I just thought of something.

Five of our remaining seven won't be posting any time soon because they're across the pond from me, and the person on this side (Di) has said that she will not be showing up today.

I can talk right now, but I will have to sleep and then I have a busy morning, so I won't be able to get into it till the latter third of the day.

Can I wait that long before giving my thoughts?

I'm deciding...

[the phantom]

Uhg. I very very much wanted to see what would happen if I allowed others to post first. I wanted to keep my eyes open for some things. But timing is against me. I feel the need to speak now, for all of you likely won't give me anything to respond to until I'm in bed, and tomorrow I won't be able to post probably until the eight-hours-left mark.

So, grudgingly, here are my thoughts.

Roa died? Hmmm.....

This selection was not what I expected. Will it throw us off course, or help us zero in on the culprit?

The first thing that comes to mind is that Roa's death leaves us with a name- SPM.

Early in the day she spent a good deal of time on SPM, and he was at that point her primary suspect along with Esty.

Roa's list can be found here.

I'm wondering about SPM... the night before, lmp was killed, and when hearing the news I imagine most of you immediately thought of SPM due to the bickering that took place the day before. And then last night, Roa is killed, and her remaining suspect is none other than SPM.

Is SPM a WW making ridiculously bold choices and assuming that everyone will think no WW would ever do such a thing, or does someone really really want to set up SPM for a lynch?

Regarding the idea that SPM is being set up, Nogrod would be my primary suspect. Not only did he point suspicion towards SPM yesterday, but he also showed some late faith in Roa, and she had him as one of two on her "probably innocent" list, which makes him look good today.

But then again, perhaps killing Roa was an attempt to get us to do exactly as I have done, which is make this a two horse race between SPM and someone who comes to be suspected as setting SPM up. Maybe we shouldn't let that happen?

Then let's try something else. Let me ask you this- with Roa's death is there anyone who is likely to fade away somewhat? Di perhaps? She attracted votes on day 1 and fewer on day 2 and then none yesterday. And Di had very nice standing on Roa's list- right at the top as "probably innocent" (along with Nog).

And conveniently, Di has announced that she will be completely absent today. Is she a WW not only banking on us turning today into a two horse race, but also counting on us giving her the same pass that we gave to Kath yesterday?

And also, has anyone noticed that the victim every night has been from my side of the Atlantic? A coincidence, or strategy? It seems to me that the schedule benefits someone from America, for they can easily be present at the beginning and end of every day, and thus set the tone as well as use their vote well.

Is the WW a European seeking to be rid of its American opponents who find the schedule so accommodating, or is the WW Di, and she thinks that having villagers all from a different region than her will cause the lynchee to emerge from their ranks every time, for they will all be present and arguing at the same time, where as she will be safely gone during the heat of battle, and can use her convenient time-zone to set the tone early and decide the voting late.

What are your thoughts?

[The Saucepan Man]

I haven't much time as I will be out (Christmas shopping ) for most of toDay and will be unlikely to return for some 5 or 6 hours.

I have half a mind to suggest lynching the phantom simply for his insufferable comments during, and in the aftermath of, the chaos that surrounded yesterDay's lynching, particularly:

Originally Posted by the phantom

It was fun, Esty. I tried to save you. Die honorably, and rest in peace.

As for the reasoning which led to Esty's lynching, I would observe that three of us (at least two of whom are innocent) believed that Esty's reappearance at such an hour looked Wolfish. I still think that it was a valid basis for for changing my vote. Moreover, had she not been lynched, then Roa would most probably have been and, going by this Wolf's modus operandi, Esty would have been killed in the night.

Which brings me to Roa as choice of victim. I really cannot fathom that one out. She was almost lynched yesterDay and I, for one, would have started toDay with her high on my list of suspects. I am sure that I am not the only one. So why kill a villager who was so likely to be "in the mix" when it came to toDay's voting?

Possibly to frame me and/or (on the basis of the phantom's reasoning) Noggie, but is that worth removing someone who was likely to assist in shielding the Wolf from being lynched?

I find it strange that the last two Night's kills have been villagers who have had their fair share of suspicion, while all of those who have generally featured on most people's "probably innocent" lists are still with us, namely:

the phantom
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Anguirel

I was sure that one of the above would be killed last Night.

The remaining villagers - Kath, Diamond and me - have all come under heavy suspicion at some time or other. If one of these three was a Wolf, they would be playing a rather risky game.

I am led to wonder whether the Wolf is one of those who has hitherto not come under much suspicion and so has felt relatively safe in killing off suspected villagers who leave trails to other suspected villagers.

That said, TP and Noggie came across as innocent to me during the confusion surrounding yesterDay's lynch (TP's self-serving farewell to Esty apart), while I have little basis at present for suspecting either Mith or Ang.

I really am rather stumped at the moment. Hopefully, a trip to the shops will inspire me and I will have had some better thoughts by the time I return.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by tp

Roa died? Hmmm.....

This selection was not what I expected.

I might think almost the contrary. I guess there is a bunch of reasons why the WW would like to get rid of Roa.

At least any sane WW would be somewhat afraid of Roa's analysis falling on her/him. So getting rid of Roa now would be understandable as it started to look like a few of the louder / more involved villagers were beginning to trust her (trust and trust... well not suspect her too much).

Originally Posted by tp

the survivor of the two will start tomorrow under the gun.

So no one under the gun to begin with toDay and thence a good kill? Maybe. But actually I tend to think it the other way around. To my experience it seems to happen quite frequently that those running close lynching the previous Day do turn out relatively safe the next. Why is that I'm not so sure about, psychology-stuff...? In this game tp f.ex. was almost lynched on Day1 here and after that has gathered no votes at all.

Her death also creates a lot of confusion if we wish to look at all this being straightforward, bluffing, double-bluffing stuff. tp mentioned a few possibilities. But we should also note how her death makes all those who were happily lynching her or decided not to involve themselves a bit suspicious. Looking at how different people reacted to that last minute frenzy might also be revealing but can surely also mislead.

With a quick skim through last action yesterDay I would say that Spm looked quite earnest indeed, trying to go for the best of the village, tp was a bit detached although he actively tried to get Roa killed and Di was somewhat standing aside just looking over things. I mean this is something even experienced WWs forget many times: in the heat of last minute voting the innocents fear the result and try their best to the last but as the wolf has no panic her/himself, the wolf tends to be more relaxed and easy. And when it's a question of just last minutes people have not so much time to scheme everything and are more likely to actually reveal their real stances...

[Nogrod]

I tend to agree with Spm that the wolf might be better caught from those with little or no suspicions than from those who are at gunpoint everyday. Unfortunately we have no such persons here.

Looking at the latest happenings that might give Spm and possibly Kath some relative safety. I'm not sure whether I would be totally happy with that, but as a working hypothesis might start with it. Even though it's pretty convenient to lay out a rule that makes the one presenting it to be safe... *coughSpmcough*

But really, there seems to be quite many people here with no actual suspicion around. A bit too many. Mith and Ang have been astonishingly at peace in here. That kind of worries me. tp has been here, there and everywhere but still quite safely without votes other than the first-Day ones. Di gathered votes on first two Days but seems to have been forgotten now?

I will probably start with these four latter ones as I come back a bit later.

[the phantom]

I have a quick chance to post, but I won't be able to again for about five hours.

Originally Posted by SPM

I have half a mind to suggest lynching the phantom simply for his insufferable comments during, and in the aftermath of, the chaos that surrounded yesterDay's lynching, particularly:

Say what you want, SPM, but I don't take that comment back. The fact is, it is so rare to have Esty in a village and she is such a delightful person that I felt the need to say goodbye upon her death. It was the first time she has ever died, for she lived to be victorious in her first village (which was my village if you recall, WW XII).

And not only that, but at the end I was quite sure that she was innocent, and so I wished her a good death.

Originally Posted by SPM

As for the reasoning which led to Esty's lynching, I would observe that three of us (at least two of whom are innocent) believed that Esty's reappearance at such an hour looked Wolfish.

You seriously need to recondsider what looks Wolfish. I will repost what I said towards the end of yesterday-

I don't agree with your reasoning. Why shouldn't an innocent want to save his own life?

The ONLY way for an innocent to guarantee victory for the village is to be the last person standing himself, for an ordo knows ONLY his OWN identity for sure.

Should an ordo be willing to sacrifice his own life? If there is a Seer or other gifted to protect, then yes, but there are none such individuals here. I personally have no plans of letting myself die at any point, and therefore I refuse to condemn Esty for it.
++Roa

The fact is, as "Wolfish" as you thought Esty's behavior was, to me she started looking more innocent with every post and by the time it was all decided and I made my "die honorably" comment I was more certain of her innocence than anyone else.

There! I just thought I had to say that because your view on what is Wolfish so often gets me angry. In game after game you are always on and on about how someone putting up a fight and refusing to be lynched is Wolfish, and that notion is so incredibly wrong. I'll never understand that logic.