Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Anguirel]

--the Saucepan Man, ++roa_aoife

[Anguirel]

Argh. Sorry, dear target, in my haste I forgot to capitalise you...

[the phantom]

The voting thus far-

Ang for SPM (1)
Roa for Esty (1)
Esty for SPM (2)
SPM for Roa (1)
Mith for Esty (2)
Ang take back SPM (1)
Ang for Roa (2)

[the phantom]

What to do.... what to do....

Here's who I already know that I'm not going to vote for today for one reason or another-
the phantom (duh)
Ang
Mith
Nogrod
SPM

So that leaves-
Di
Esty
Kath
Roa

I will try my best to give each of the four a read-over sometime in the next three hours. I haven't read all the posts that have been made today, but I'll get to them as soon as I can (I'm bogged down with a large and unexpected project).

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What Roa did was something I have called "A Devil's Advocate" -view over someone. Looking at someone's posting with the evil eye, trying to see any suspicious things you could find and gathering them to a summary. She has done that before, and I have done those - not to speak of the master of the art Spawn... I guess we all have done those as both innocents and villains. So making of them does not make one suspicious, but the reactions to them do count.

I certainly agree with the last point. As for whether the making of the analyses renders Roa suspicious, I would welcome hearing from her why she chose Esty and I. I have not looked back, but my recollection is that she posted her analysis of Esty, then posted a list identifying Esty and I as “probable Wolves”, then went on to analyse me. I get the impression that she had decided (for whatever reason - possibly virtuous, possibly malign) that Esty and I were her suspects for toDay and then went on to analyse us with that in mind.

Someone (Ang?) mentioned before that her timing (Daybreak and Dusk) were fortuitius for a Wolf. And, if she is a Wolf, she has used that to her advantage. She seems to have had a large hand (paw?) in setting today’s agenda.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Wouldn't actually kill him for being a lawyer .... but it has to be born in mind that lawyers are trained to present cases.......

Oh, I’m no glory-seeking fancy-dan advocate. Simply a corporate background boy. However, I do rather pride myself on being able to present convincing positon papers.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I know. Am voting unhelpfully and feeling generally a bit inert and cavalier.

Hehe. I almost labelled you as “cavalier” rather than “profligate” before, but did not because I feared you might take it as a compliment.

Phantom, are we ever actually going to get some serious analysis from you, or are you still in dark-man-of-mystery mode?

[Nogrod]

Well just looking at the bare facts - and then interpreting them a little...

tp was one of the favourite-suspects on Day1. After that he has not gained any substantial suspicion - Roa and myself and I think some others have given a point or two against him after that, but nothing of any consequence. To counter that many a people have been happy to affirm their trust on him. Just that alone should ring some bells... So is he just so convincing with his innocence? Or is there a fear-factor involved by which no one wishes to suspect him?

At least his voting record is more than safe (according to the standards I think fit here eg. the wolves are not afraid to bandwaggon, on the contrary). On Day1 he casted the last vote for Di (bringing her even with Boro). On Day2 he brought Eomer to 3 votes. I agree he's an asset if innocent but I wouldn't count on it either. No one should go on unscrutinised...

Di was another favourite suspect on Days1 and 2. One of her voters was lmp we know is innocent but tp's vote (D1) does stand a bit safe there... Then again Di set entirely safe votes for Boro (the first vote of which no one can blame if the reason is ranting) on Day1 and for Eomer as the last voter on Day2 herself.

I don't know what to say of her. She introduced the law of Di being always innocent and told us she would be quitting WW after this one... that sounds genuine as I can't see her making a trick like that in a game. Or then she might do it. But probably not.

Spm is the hard nut to crack (who isn't?). He sounds the most reasonable one here and just because of that he should be lynched? No. There seems to be a bunch of situations where an intelligent Spm-wolf would have acted just the way he has (look my earlier posts for more) but still I feel him more innocent than guilty. But is my feeling right? I don't trust it even though I feel it.

But his voting record looks quite terrible. First he votes tp and changes to lmp, then on Day2 sticks with lmp as the first vote of the Day. Surely he can say his votes have been fun and based on old rivalries, but due to that they are safe too... ToDay he jumps on Roa and that sounds more innocent, but not freeing in anyway. It was early enough and he will have his chance to change it if needs be... As I said, very hard to see.

But as I've said before, I'd like to see him in the game as he makes sense and if innocent would help us a lot. If a wolf, well, he'll slip sooner or later (if he hasn't already?).

Kath is an enigma here. Were she a wolf, she would be playing a wonderful game. A nasty tactics, I admit. But she's done that before and would be a nice and balancing wolf for Fea.

Her voting is a talking example of this. On Day1 a waggon vote on tp (the last of them) and on Day2 carefully sprerading the vote after I had commented about wolves wishing to narrow the suspects as long as they are not among them themselves.

But I can't say that is in some way conclusive. She might just be herself wishing to stay alive the first Days to gear up later... Not that I approve of the tactics, but if we're after the wolf here and not after the tactics we approve, then I'm not sure if there is enough reason to vote her.

Estelyn basically got through the first two Days by a goodwill. Even though the possibility of Fea choosing her was raised a few times. I've talked of her enough earlier so I will not say much here.

But she has brought someone up from one to two votes everyDay (Boro, Di, Spm)! Could anyone think of a safer way to be a wolf? I mean she withdraws early but she always votes for someone who already has votes...

Even though I feel wrong to suspect her my reason says she is a worthwhile candidate for a wolf.

Roa seems to be another fear-factor player here. No one dared to suspect her until Spm (by force) and Ang decided to give it a try (as she had gone away... how convenient?). She's a human, c'mon! I've lost to her, I've won her and I've also won with her!

She makes cases, yes she does. But she does them both innocent and a baddie. Her voting record is quite hard to interpret as she has voted for Di on two first Days (on Day1 starting the vore for Di, on Day2 closing it) and her vote for Esty toDay was quite well founded - I'm not making comments on how good the reasons were as I think I have lots of better reasons to suspect Esty, but that she had prepared a case for her first and then voted on grounds of it. Rational player voting if needing to go off early - or very rational wolf-voting.

I'm very unsure about her too. Somehow I'm inclined to see her as innocent this time, but something tells me otherwise. It just feels so stupid to suspect her in every game... *computing*

Ang and Mith to come (of whom I seem to know nothing)... I just need a break and will ease your reading by cutting this to smaller units...

I will also have to say something more definitive abut this too as I have to vote...

[Nogrod]

Oh, this seems to be too much for me as it's a bit over 3AM here - well saturday to look for but I have to wake up at least around Mid-day...

So this will be short and to be continued if I'm alive toMorrow.

But I have checked some basics anyhow.

Both Ang and Mith were somewhat loud and careful at the same time on Day1.

After that I lose control of them (and have no time to read more properly) and find them more dizzying than informative. Well that suits Ang better than Mith as I think she feels quite herself. If she turns out the wolf we should all go and cry at the full moon one day after this...

Ang has voted somewhat safely and has behaved somewhat likewise. OnDay1 he casted the very first vote of the game for tp and on Day2 the first for Eomer early in the game. ToDay he has voted Spm first in the air of the earlier Days but then actually changed it to Roa. At the same time he has declared to fall into the fun-stuff as we can't win but still making the first steps to actually try to involve himself towards the results of the vote? Now what to say of this? Either something fishy or then just being in the funny mode and suddenly starting to think about it (just to save Spm, for instance?).

Mith on the contrary made the Bb-vote on Day1, but now as I look at it I'm not so sure how risky it was in the end - seems to have produced relative safety indeed... Her vote and the retraction for Eomer doesn't say much either. ToDay her vote on Esty seems pretty safe (others have made the case to look convincing enough) but she has plausible arguments on her behalf for it (pragmatism).

I will need to think a moment... a vote coming soon and then to bed...

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

Phantom, are we ever actually going to get some serious analysis from you, or are you still in dark-man-of-mystery mode?

Heh- I'm always in that mode.

As far as "serious analysis", throughout the game I've pretty much provided what I felt needed to be said. The vast majority of my thoughts I keep to myself, for this game is so incredibly hunch/feeling based (because of the lack of WW teams) that most of my thoughts are whimsical feelings, which change with every read-through. I mean, I can tear all sorts of holes in every thought I have, so why pass along such garbage to the village? It would only waste your valuable time.

But that said, I am going to at least do a little bit of "serious analysis".

I should like to start with firsts. First posts, that is. First posts might be as telling as anything. Mine was, I believe.

Di's first post

Esty's first post

Kath's first post

Roa's first post

Di's first post is light, short, and plays on the idea of using grudges. It seems to be very much in line with her usual attitude. Of course, we've never seen her as a baddie, so who knows?

Esty's first post emphasises cluelessness, and she complains about not being able to influence the vote, and she doesn't like the idea of a random lynching. This is Esty's first post from her other game (WW XII). There is a huge difference between the two. Why? Is it just role-play and nothing else?

Kath suggests that on Day 1 we lynch based on past grudges so that they're gone by Day 3 or so and we don't fall back onto them. I'm really intrigued by this. It seems to be a good thought and yet not helpful at all. She also says that there are ways of picking out the WWs despite the format. In her next post she says she doesn't have any grudges. How convenient considering she suggested lynching grudges. She posts a couple more times asking about the deadline and voting. She jokes about SPM in #87. Then she does another one liner. Then she votes for me and says that she's bandwagoning. Would a WW come out and say this? It seems to me the answer is yes.

Roa objects to Ang's comment about Fea wanting to break Roa's winning streak. She says "Hey! I've lost before. Ask Nogrod- he was there. Once, sure, but it still counts. And it was completely my fault. Curse my boldness! It was the end of me!" Is she trying to make herself look less dangerous? She doesn't like the Di-rule. Then she refutes my pessimism and says that the village is not powerless. Buttering up the chances of the villagers?

Okay...

Take my opinion with a ladle of salt, for I have not had time to go through and read all the posts of my four suspects. But as it stands right now my order of suspicion-
Kath
Roa and Esty
Di

I'm feeling like voting for Kath.

[Nogrod]

Ang – Spm (Spm1)
Roa – Estelyn (Spm1, Estelyn1)
Estelyn – Spm (Spm2, Estelyn1)
Spm – Roa (Spm2, Estelyn1, Roa1)
Mith – Estelyn (Spm2, Estelyn2, Roa1)
Ang – Roa [-Spm] (Spm1, Estelyn2, Roa2)

So four votes left (and the possibility of some retractions...), Di, Kath , tp, Nogrod to vote.

I'm a bit wary of both Mith and Ang as they have kind of slipped under my radar so far. I know them both to be capable in their own manner. But still I can't see myself voting on them as I have nothing more specific or grounded for either of them.

Diamond I'm also quite ready to leave be for the moment. It's guts more than any reasoned arguments.

Roa I'm not at all in ease with, but Spm's concern about her choice of the ones to "analyse" set aside I have no reason to doubt her more than others. I could see her as the wolf Fea wished to be in... She has been a goodie also, well one or two times...

Spm I do suspect somewhat but I also think that he might be just a victim of being suspicious as he is a loud villager with good points and clearly present for all to see.

The same somewhat goes to tp. I might have millions of reasons to suspect him (and I do), but then again he seems contributing enough and with quality to not be my lynching choice for toDay.

That leaves me to my two suspects, Kath and Estelyn.

I have been suspecting Esty for a while now and could vote her on the basis of it. Still my guts say the opposite. It might be that Fea picked her just to fill this job but still I waver here...

Kath has been a bit too quiet toDay to be a wolf but otherwise I'm thinking of her as my primary suspect right now.

RL or tactics?

I can't say, so I'll vote for:

++ Kath

again.

[Nogrod]

Our first Day suspicion getters by vote count were:
tp 3 votes - 1 takeback (D1), 0 votes (D2)
Di 3 votes (D1), 3 votes - 1 takeback (D2)
Spm 2 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes - 1 takeback (D3 –so far)

It’s nice to see the trend here.

tp was highly suspiced on Day1 but after that no one has “dared” to vote him – or has been affirmed by his innocence.

Di gained votes on Day1 and on Day2 but now it seems no one thinks her suspicious.

Spm has a nice curve: highly suspected on Day1, left in peace in Day2 and now in the frontline again.

Those who have gained suspicion after Day1 are:
Kath 0 votes (D1), 2 votes (D2)
Estelyn 0 votes (D1), 1 vote (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far)
Roa 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far)

Kath had a “peak” on Day 2 after remaining in the shadows on Day1. ToDay she’s again laying low.

Estelyn was clearly handled with care on Days 1&2 but seems to be gaining on suspicion as the game clearly starts to wind up.

Roa went under everyone (no one daring to challenge her?) both of the first Days but now seems to be gearing up with votes.

Those who have been mildly suspected and once voted for – albeit the votes have been taken aback:
Ang 1 vote - 1 takeback (D1), 0 votes (D2)
Nogrod 0 votes (D1), 1 vote - 1 takeback (D2)

Ang was ranted over on Day1, after that it's been very quiet...

Nogrod I can't comment here, I think.

No one has seriously suspected:
Mith 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2)

Mith seems too good to be true?


~~~~~~
I guess we all had something like the hunch of this but if we add to this the voters we might have more information...

Then it starts to look like this:

tp 3 votes - 1 takeback (D1) Ang, Spm, Kath; tb by Spm, 0 votes (D2)

Di 3 votes (D1) Roa, lmp, tp, 3 votes - 1 takeback (D2) lmp, esty, Roa; tb by lmp

Spm 2 votes (D1) Nogrod, Boro, 0 votes (D2), 2 votes - 1 takeback (D3 –so far) Ang, Esty; tb by Ang

Kath 0 votes (D1), 2 votes (D2) Eomer, Nogrod

Estelyn 0 votes (D1), 1 vote (D2) Kath, 2 votes (D3 – so far) Roa, Mith

Roa 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2), 2 votes (D3 – so far) Spm, Ang

Ang 1 vote - 1 takeback (D1) lmp, 0 votes (D2)

Nogrod 0 votes (D1), 1 vote - 1 takeback (D2) Mith

Mith 0 votes (D1), 0 votes (D2)

~~~~~~~
I'll try to comment this one soon. Need some thinking and a cigarette...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by myself

tp was highly suspiced on Day1

suspiced? (those anti-edit rules...)