Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Dark Lady

The village slept, and the unhappy spirits slept uneasily in their graves, and the gravedigger dreamt of his death, and in his dream a child screamed, and a red-haired man looked blindly to his past, and a hound howled; and they returned to him, and a woman wept; and he heard the faint tap dance of rolling dice.

This leapt out at me from the narration of our gravedigger’s death. Not sure if it means anything, but if there are clues to be found they may be here. Any red-haired men present?

I am afraid that I can’t read much into the votes for Eomer yesterday. Ang voted based upon his “honey-trap”, but could that have been a convenient pretext for him to attack his fellow Wolf? He has himself stated that his “declaration of ploy” was in itself a ploy to encourage votes for Eomer. Then again, the same might be said of the votes cast by the phantom and Mithalwen, both of whom indicated that they were relying upon Ang’s reasoning (although TP has given some further explanation for his vote today – ex post facto, as it were). By the time that Diamond voted, Eomer’s fate was pretty much sealed and, to the extent it was not (because there were a few votes that might have changed), she has the excuse that she voted to save herself (although I suppose that this might in itself be regarded as suspicious).

As for the other votes, I agree with the phantom that Kath’s stands out most. But it could go either way. Either she was sufficiently unconcerned about herself not to make her own position more secure (which would indicate innocence) or she did not want to give the impression that she was trying to save herself (which might suggest Wolfishness). It should be noted that Boro, an innocent, could have voted on Day 1 in a manner more likely to save himself, for Diamond for example, but did not.

Eek! When I read Roa’s damning analysis of Estelyn, I was all but ready to vote for her (Esty, that is), particularly as it ties in with much of my own thinking with regard to our milkmaid. Then I saw Roa’s analysis of me …

I particularly recall similar hatchet jobs being done on me twice in past games. One was produced by an innocent Diamond, the other by a guilty Kath. In both cases, I was innocent, I might add. The one time that I was a Wolf, I left very little material to enable such a hatchet job to be done. Take that as you will, but I must comment on some aspects of Roa’s analysis:

Originally Posted by Roa

The first thing that jumped out at me was his stance on phantom, which changed quite suddenly.

I explained yesterday the way my thinking on the phantom has gone. I still currently believe him innocent, albeit with a paranoid imp on my shoulder stubbornly telling me how much a Wolfish phantom would love it that I think him innocent and how foolish I will look if he does turn out to be our remaining Wolf …

Originally Posted by Roa

His reasons for voting LMP are heavily flawed at best and completely bogus at worst. He said himself that heavy statements of innocence would attract his attention, and Diamond did this more often than phantom did, to be sure.

My reasoning on “heavy statements of innocence” was that, if the Wolves were in competition rather than playing as a team, then they would be more concerned than normal to avoid being killed (thus losing) and so might defend themselves more vigorously than normal if in danger of being lynched. I would not regard an individual’s declaration of innocence prior to any suspicion being cast in their direction as particularly Wolfish. Quite the opposite, in fact, given the attention that it would be likely to attract (and indeed has, in Diamond’s case, attracted). Hence my concerns with regard to Elempi’s (and your) reasoning over Diamond.

Originally Posted by Roa

He also keeps pushing his "the wolves are at each other's throats" idea through all of it. Why? What purpose did it serve?

Again, I explained this yesterday. It is, in any event, an idea which is no longer relevant, save (possibly) in the analysis of Eomer’s vote and the votes cast yesterday for him.

Originally Posted by Esty

Saucepan, the conclusions in your last post puzzle me. I can't follow your reasoning, which brings me to my own conclusion that you are trying to scatter any suspicion the rest of us would have about you.

Please explain any logic that you have used to come to this conclusion.

Your suspicion of me has no logic that I can recognize.

My analysis was based upon Elempi’s list at #208, which you yourself highlighted as possibly being an important clue.

A Wolf might well choose to kill an innocent who had included that Wolf on his “probably innocent” list, since the death prompts the conclusion that he/she had no reason to kill that villager.

My view, however, is that the Wolf is more likely to have killed an innocent who regarded him/her as nether particularly guilty-looking nor particularly innocent-looking (for the reason I explained - it leaves less of a trail). Hence my concentration on those whom Elempi was unsure about. Since I am inclined to trust Ang and Nogrod for the time being, and already had more reason to be concerned about you and Kath, Elempi’s list points me towards the two of you.

The phantom was following similar reasoning in his post #263, save that, unlike me, he draws no conclusions from the analysis.

Originally Posted by Esty

Since your reasoning is not understandable to me, I must consider you a prime candidate who is trying to distribute suspicion elsewhere.

Look, I’m just trying to indicate where my current thoughts are leading me. It’s up to you whether you think my reasoning has any merit or not.

I must devote myself to my loyerly duties for a while. At present, however, my current “list” is:

Main suspect: Estelyn
Could go either way: Kath, Roa, Diamond
Tending to think innocent: The phantom, Nogrod, Mithalwen, Anguirel

I'll probably be pilloried for having such an extensive "innocent" list. I usually am. But I have little reason other than fear of the consequences to suspect any of those last four at the moment.