Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I'm going to go back and check all of LMP's posts to see if he was on to anyone.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

OK, too many posts to list individually, so I will sum up what I have found in LMP's posts and voting:

#241 was his last post; in it he exonerated SPM of any real suspicion, saying that their spats were just the usual. He is somewhat suspicious of the Phantom, but his suspicion of Eomer resulted in a change of his vote, away from Di to Eomer. It would seem, then, that neither SPM nor Di had reason to dispense of him.

#226 expounds his reasons for suspecting both SPM and Phantom.

#212, his first vote yesterDay for Diamond.

#208: His list - this could be an important clue!

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Who I think is innocent (all gut feeling as there really, really isn't much else that can honestly be said by anybody with any certainty at all {Elempi glares at Espiem}):

Elempi (obviously)
the phantom
Espiem
Mithalwen

Who I'm not at all sure about:
Nogrod
Kath
Anguirel
Estelyn

Who I think may be a werewolf:

PreciousPrism18

Roa
Eomer

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Roa is capable of just about anything. I learned that in a certain DW game.

Diamond: she's due.

More in a bit - real life calls me away now. (Well, barks me away, actually - time to walk the dog...)

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Back to analysis of LPM's posts:

#178 replies to SPM's suspicions and asks the reason for them. His summary:

SPM is just as dangerous in this game as any, whether innocent and a threat to the werewolves, or a werewolf and a threat to the village. The odds are 2 in 13 that he is innocent; but if he is not, he is a most dangerous enemy. Let us take care.

#176 defines his reasons for suspecting Di: "Protested too Prodigeously for my liking... ... her unnecessary defense which struck me as likely as not as that of a first time werewolf whose nerves have gotten to her."

His first day first vote for Ang can be seen in the context of previous happenings and was revoked anyway to vote for Di.

Going on the basis of his votes, his secondary prime candidate was obviously Di. Since he was astute enough to find out the one werewolf we've caught so far, he might be onto something there.

The other person on his werewolf list (#208) is Roa.

I would not let either SPM nor Phantom off the hook of possible werewolves. Though I have not yet considered Phantom guilty, I am well aware of his abilities and trust him to be able to double/triple/quadruple bluff his way through any game.

Any earlier LPM posts are not relevant to the current situation, as I see it.


The following voted for Eomer: Ang, Mith, phantom, Di

Names on both lists: Ang (only initially and admittedly because of an old grudge, so probably not a serious suspicion)

phantom - always to be taken seriously as a possible threat

Diamond - for the same reason I myself had - too vociferous in her protestation of innocence. Anyone can say it, but making a rule of it is going too far!


So far, that would keep Di on top of my list of suspects. Right now, the others on that list are SPM and possibly phantom.

As to the others, several are relatively unknown to me, so I have no idea how to assess them. It's still early in the day, so maybe more evidence will show up.

[The Saucepan Man]

He he. So Eomer was a Wolf. Who’d have thunk it?

I would wager that, if the Dark Lady did hand pick one of her servants, then this was the one. If so, then the other Wolf was either a random choice or (more likely, on the basis of what we have been told so far) indirectly selected in some way. Either way, they are going to be more difficult to find.

It is difficult to draw many conclusions from the votes for Eomer yesterday. I am tempted to wonder whether the other Wolf had spotted Eomer’s furry inclinations and took the opportunity to help eliminate him. However, it just as likely that the other Wolf did not vote for Eomer, either because he/she did not spot him or because he/she was more intent on trying to kill innocents. So, I am doubtful that the votes themselves will tell us much. That said, the timing of them or the reasoning given might well hold some clues, so those are matters that I will be looking further into.

I tend to think that Eomer was keen to find and eliminate his fellow Wolf. As I explained yesterday, it would be the sensible thing for a Wolf to do. Eomer’s vote for Kath was based on such reasoning (that one Wolf had been looking for the other in selecting morm as their kill) and the best Wolfish plans are often based upon an underlying truth. This would implicate Kath, who has certainly been keeping a low profile (although she has sought to explain that). However, it presupposes that Eomer was following such a plan and that he had correctly identified his fellow Wolf, neither of which is anything like certain. I remain unsure about Kath, but will bear this in mind.

Now, Elempi …

Ah, Elempi. I am sorry if I impaired your enjoyment of this rollercoaster-of-a-game, but I did suspect you, and not simply because it is traditional for me to do so. Heartless though it may sound, I am rather glad that you bought it in the night, as I would undoubtedly have carried on after you today were you still here. Your removal eliminates something of a stumbling block for me …

But where does this leave me? My mains suspects yesterday where Elempi, Eomer and Esty, with a smattering of Roa thrown in. However, I need to consider the implications of Elempi as choice of nightly kill and also ponder what has been said so far today.

To avoid giving further headaches to those who would seek to analyse my lengthy and verbose posts (), I will cut this short here and return anon with some further thoughts.

[The Saucepan Man]

Elempi was a strange choice of kill. As I suggested before, his continued presence was diverting my attention from other possible Wolves, and he was also garnering suspicion in some other quarters (although not yet enough to warrant a vote from others).

So why kill him? One possibility is that it was an attempt to set me up. On the face of it, it seems unlikely that a Wolfish SpM would kill the villager that he suspected the most and voted for. But, because that is the obvious conclusion, a cunning Wolf may well have been seeking to implicate me as a double-bluffing Wolf.

Or was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list. That would implicate the phantom, Mithalwen and me.

Or possibly, the Wolf was one of those Elempi most suspected, which would implicate Diamond and Roa. Diamond more so, I think, because she has been in danger of being lynched on both of the previous days and so would be more concerned to eliminate one of the possible votes for her.

However, I tend to think it more likely that the Wolf was one whom Elempi neither particularly suspected nor trusted, as this leaves less of a trail and points instead towards those in the categories identified above. This would implicate Ang, Noggie, Kath and Esty.

Since I am still inclined (for now) to view Nogrod and Anguirel as innocent, Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

...that's what I keep telling myself.

Only one werewolf in the game now.

Only one vote for me toDay.

It's simple - just vote for the one!

Today I will be looking for the one person of whom I am most suspicious. Unless I get killed instead, either by lynching or by wolf, then I will concentrate on the next one.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Saucepan, the conclusions in your last post puzzle me. I can't follow your reasoning, which brings me to my own conclusion that you are trying to scatter any suspicion the rest of us would have about you.

...was Elempi chosen because he had one of the Wolves on his “probably innocent” list.

Please explain any logic that you have used to come to this conclusion.

Elempi’s choice as nightly kill, to my mind, most strongly implicates Kath and Esty.

Your suspicion of me has no logic that I can recognize.


Since your reasoning is not understandable to me, I must consider you a prime candidate who is trying to distribute suspicion elsewhere.

[Mithalwen]

Here ..no time ... and i thought LMP was the last wolf! Rethinking.. back later..

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Dark Lady

The village slept, and the unhappy spirits slept uneasily in their graves, and the gravedigger dreamt of his death, and in his dream a child screamed, and a red-haired man looked blindly to his past, and a hound howled; and they returned to him, and a woman wept; and he heard the faint tap dance of rolling dice.

This leapt out at me from the narration of our gravedigger’s death. Not sure if it means anything, but if there are clues to be found they may be here. Any red-haired men present?

I am afraid that I can’t read much into the votes for Eomer yesterday. Ang voted based upon his “honey-trap”, but could that have been a convenient pretext for him to attack his fellow Wolf? He has himself stated that his “declaration of ploy” was in itself a ploy to encourage votes for Eomer. Then again, the same might be said of the votes cast by the phantom and Mithalwen, both of whom indicated that they were relying upon Ang’s reasoning (although TP has given some further explanation for his vote today – ex post facto, as it were). By the time that Diamond voted, Eomer’s fate was pretty much sealed and, to the extent it was not (because there were a few votes that might have changed), she has the excuse that she voted to save herself (although I suppose that this might in itself be regarded as suspicious).

As for the other votes, I agree with the phantom that Kath’s stands out most. But it could go either way. Either she was sufficiently unconcerned about herself not to make her own position more secure (which would indicate innocence) or she did not want to give the impression that she was trying to save herself (which might suggest Wolfishness). It should be noted that Boro, an innocent, could have voted on Day 1 in a manner more likely to save himself, for Diamond for example, but did not.

Eek! When I read Roa’s damning analysis of Estelyn, I was all but ready to vote for her (Esty, that is), particularly as it ties in with much of my own thinking with regard to our milkmaid. Then I saw Roa’s analysis of me …

I particularly recall similar hatchet jobs being done on me twice in past games. One was produced by an innocent Diamond, the other by a guilty Kath. In both cases, I was innocent, I might add. The one time that I was a Wolf, I left very little material to enable such a hatchet job to be done. Take that as you will, but I must comment on some aspects of Roa’s analysis:

Originally Posted by Roa

The first thing that jumped out at me was his stance on phantom, which changed quite suddenly.

I explained yesterday the way my thinking on the phantom has gone. I still currently believe him innocent, albeit with a paranoid imp on my shoulder stubbornly telling me how much a Wolfish phantom would love it that I think him innocent and how foolish I will look if he does turn out to be our remaining Wolf …

Originally Posted by Roa

His reasons for voting LMP are heavily flawed at best and completely bogus at worst. He said himself that heavy statements of innocence would attract his attention, and Diamond did this more often than phantom did, to be sure.

My reasoning on “heavy statements of innocence” was that, if the Wolves were in competition rather than playing as a team, then they would be more concerned than normal to avoid being killed (thus losing) and so might defend themselves more vigorously than normal if in danger of being lynched. I would not regard an individual’s declaration of innocence prior to any suspicion being cast in their direction as particularly Wolfish. Quite the opposite, in fact, given the attention that it would be likely to attract (and indeed has, in Diamond’s case, attracted). Hence my concerns with regard to Elempi’s (and your) reasoning over Diamond.

Originally Posted by Roa

He also keeps pushing his "the wolves are at each other's throats" idea through all of it. Why? What purpose did it serve?

Again, I explained this yesterday. It is, in any event, an idea which is no longer relevant, save (possibly) in the analysis of Eomer’s vote and the votes cast yesterday for him.

Originally Posted by Esty

Saucepan, the conclusions in your last post puzzle me. I can't follow your reasoning, which brings me to my own conclusion that you are trying to scatter any suspicion the rest of us would have about you.

Please explain any logic that you have used to come to this conclusion.

Your suspicion of me has no logic that I can recognize.

My analysis was based upon Elempi’s list at #208, which you yourself highlighted as possibly being an important clue.

A Wolf might well choose to kill an innocent who had included that Wolf on his “probably innocent” list, since the death prompts the conclusion that he/she had no reason to kill that villager.

My view, however, is that the Wolf is more likely to have killed an innocent who regarded him/her as nether particularly guilty-looking nor particularly innocent-looking (for the reason I explained - it leaves less of a trail). Hence my concentration on those whom Elempi was unsure about. Since I am inclined to trust Ang and Nogrod for the time being, and already had more reason to be concerned about you and Kath, Elempi’s list points me towards the two of you.

The phantom was following similar reasoning in his post #263, save that, unlike me, he draws no conclusions from the analysis.

Originally Posted by Esty

Since your reasoning is not understandable to me, I must consider you a prime candidate who is trying to distribute suspicion elsewhere.

Look, I’m just trying to indicate where my current thoughts are leading me. It’s up to you whether you think my reasoning has any merit or not.

I must devote myself to my loyerly duties for a while. At present, however, my current “list” is:

Main suspect: Estelyn
Could go either way: Kath, Roa, Diamond
Tending to think innocent: The phantom, Nogrod, Mithalwen, Anguirel

I'll probably be pilloried for having such an extensive "innocent" list. I usually am. But I have little reason other than fear of the consequences to suspect any of those last four at the moment.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Of one thing we can be sure - a lone wolf will fight hard to stay alive toDay. That may not be loud, but I should think it will be discernable. Saucy, your strange suspicion of me makes me feel like you're fighting now. I can't think of any other reason for you to put me at the top of your list.

Others will have to judge which person they think is acting suspiciously today.