Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXVI - Úcenite Valto

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Kath

lmp, I see your point about you and Sauce arguing. I had quite forgotten you did that. However, that does not mean that one or the other of you is not a wolf, trying to make yourselves look normal.

A very good point, and something that I got to thinking about on my way home from work.

I have a theory to propound. I am not sure I believe in it, but we surely do need an alternative to the current one that has gone THREE DAYS running without dissent. That must stop.

Fact: Feanor of the Peredhil has done her level best to set up a game that would allow for a maximum of ploy and gamesmanship as compared to logic and reasoning. The result is that if the werewolves can define "the story" according to their own interests, and get the rest of the players to accept and believe it, they increase their chances of winning this game.

Fact: There are two werewolves who at the start of this game did not know each other's identity.

Fact: Espiem floated his "how a werewolf might think" theory, which has by and large been accepted by the majority of players if the lack of opposition to it is any indication: "the wolves are in competition and are looking to kill each other".

Fact: the phantom has been doing his level best to dictate what this game is, and how it may best be understood. This is completely in character for an innocent Phantom, and is thus unlikely to arouse overmuch suspicion.

Fact: Espiem has gone into prosecutor mode, and picked out Elempi as his first target, which is not in the least unusual and therefore is least likely to arouse overmuch suspicion. This, by the way, is a reasonably effective way of getting one particular player who is known to be susceptible to defensiveness, on the defensive, and not thinking about what might really be going on. Well, maybe in another game, but not this time.

Fact: Espiem and the phantom have, as is usual for both of them, been loudest and so far, by and large, controlled the conversations.

Potential Remonstration: But this is the way Espiem and the phantom always behave.

Answer: All the better for them if they are the two werewolves.

I contest the assertion that the two werewolves are necessarily out to get each other. One werewolf may have decided to float this theory because it dawned on "him" early that this could well be the case, and would be convincing to the rest of the players. The werewolf who takes this initiative hopes and expects that the other werewolf is astute enough to notice that it may be the first werewolf who is floating these notions, and catches on, through further careful observation, that this first is indeed the other werewolf. Thus, by sheer amount of posting and control, as well as coded markers within posts, indicating what each other is doing, these two have come to a "read between the lines" understanding of who each other is, and proceed to play the game as hard as they can, trying to control it as much as they can, and have thus struck an alliance that actually runs counter to the prevailing "story" as to what's really going on.

I for one consider SPM and the phantom to be supremely capable of such a ploy and counterploy set-up, especially if the two werewolves are looking out for each other. Remember, Fea has stated that if one werewolf wins, both werewolves are considered to have won. So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.

Now, everybody but SPM and the phantom, please tell me if you see any holes in my theory.

SPM & the phantom, please be so kind as to defend yourselves.

Finally, it's about time someone besides those two provided an alternative "story" to this game, and I will go so far as to congratulate myself. Phantom, you're not the only arrogant man on this board.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Oops! Sorry about that voting mistake - it's getting late, I guess...

++Diamond

[the phantom]

lmp- I really truly wish you had not made that last post.

So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.

Yes. You're right. Completely right, as far as I am concerned. I can't speak for SPM, but I recognized his "the WWs are in competition" statement as a ploy yesterday and have been using it as a ploy myself.

BUT... BUT.... NOT as a WWish ploy, but rather as an anti-WW ploy.

You see, one reason I was so concerned with feeling SPM out was so I could decide whether he was a WW doing a ploy or a villager doing a ploy. It can work both ways you see. You've already explained how it can be a WW ploy, but did you not think of the flip side?

As an innocent, it is to your advantage to try to establish as a fact that the WWs would want to kill each other, correct?

Don't you see? I came out in support of the "WWs in competition" theory in an effort to get the WWs to gun for each other. I didn't actually believe it for a second. If I myself was a WW NO WAY would I gun for my brother/sister.

As I said, I cannot speak for sure about SPM's intentions, but if you look back at post #182, it makes my innocent intentions clear.

Indeed. I totally, completely, and fully agree that if an individual WW wishes to claim victory for himself/herself it is necessary to compete with each other as well as the village, for if it comes down to himself/herself and a villager victory is assured, but if the village is reduced to himself/herself and the other WW, he/she might not survive, and being the only survivor is without a doubt the supreme honor that everyone in this village is vying for.

PS SPM- am I doing well today? Just wink if you think you get what I'm saying.

As you can clearly see, I am latching onto what I thought was his ploy full force and at the end I basically ask him if I had caught on and was doing it right.

But now that you've spoken up, the ploy is, without a doubt, worthless.

Oh, well.

[the phantom]

The voting (I think) thus far-

SPM for lmp (1)
Eomer for Kath (1)
lmp for Di (1)
Ang for Eomer (1)
Mith for Nogrod (1)
Esty for Di (2)
Mith take back Nogrod (0)
Mith for Eomer (2)

[the phantom]

In post #151 I said this-

Roa, m'dear, it pains me to say it but both yesterday and today you fell head first into a trap of mine. You see, one of your complaints about my behavior was something that I was actually doing purposefully as a ploy, and I was betting that WWs would have a certain reaction to it. Not that I'm saying I'm sure you're a WW. Depending on your personality, it's possible my trap misfired. I'm not going to start gunning for you yet, but I will watch to see if you continue to travel down the path. And yes, I'll eventually explain what this "trap" is that I'm speaking of (later today), and when I do you can tell me what you think of it and by all means vote to lynch me if you don't like my explanation, but I feel the need to leave it alone just for a few hours.

All right. I've let the bait dangle long enough. I will now reveal what my "trap" was.

My whole attitude about "strategy is useless" and "a victory in this game just means your lucky" was a ploy. I was trying to tick off the WWs- to injure their pride to the point that they stepped forward. You see, I was hoping they'd feel supremely insulted by the notion that if they win it wouldn't really mean anything. I was trying to poison their victory for them. Then I sat back and watched to see if anyone came out strong against my statements (acted insulted by them) and tried to argue that the village is actually very powerful and that there is a lot of strategy involved and that a WW victory would be very meaningful.

And both yesterday and today, Roa fit this behavior somewhat. She admitted to being "irked" by my statements. Her main comments are in post #114 and post #149.

But as I said earlier, it's completely possible that my trap misfired and Roa is innocent. What do you think? Is there anyone besides Roa who had an interesting reaction to my "pessimism"?

And while we're on the subject, this is another reason why I don't want to lynch SPM. He appears to have caught onto this ploy and wisely kept his mouth shut about it. From post #157-

Originally Posted by SPM

and your “pessimism” aside (and I can understand what you were trying to achieve here)

Oh, and there was also a secondary reason for my pessimism. By stating that my talents were useless in this sort of village and such, I was also hoping the WWs would not see me as any threat and thus spare me.

Convenient, eh? Two ploys for the price of one.

[Nogrod]

I still believe that at least one of our wolves has been moderately careful so far. Anyhow, as usual the loudmouths are more prone to make mistakes or slip in the middle of their huge posting one Day or another and therefore they are easier to catch than the more careful ones who concentrate on not leaving tracks.

We have no one-liners here, thank the supreme Moddes for that. But still there are different styles of play and different amount of notice different people receive. A wise wolf would take that into account. That does not say that there isn't a loud wolf around. It's more likely that there is one.

But as we can only pursue limited number of candidates at a time as our personal time is limited, I'm going to look at those who have not aroused so much attention so far toDay (well, the next hour or so after which I have to turn into bed). I've always approoved a bit more involved villagers than reserved and too careful ones. With the first you can argue and find points from, but the latter just skip under the radar and make the endgame painstaking in a not-fun sense (at worst pure guessing)...

Also I think it's just fair to reward those who invest time and effort to the game (at least when you have to more guess than reason your votes). I myself have not been the best example of that involvement this far but my RL has been overtly hectic (the other game has not been so time-consuming in the end). From toMorrow onwards I will be having considerably more time to invest in here, so if I'm among living still then, I will surely get more involved.

(nb. this last one here just because a couple of people have thought me oddly behaving or/and suspicious as I have been so quiet and not-involved)

[Anguirel]

Don't lynch Diamond.

Eomer, if I have wronged you, I am sorry, and if not, I am sorrier for your lamentable descent into the lupine maelstrom.

Good night.

[Nogrod]

I just couldn't resist commenting on tp's last post.

tp, you seem to be (again) on the loose with all these ploys... You had two in your last post "confessed" and your insistence on my innocence can't be interpreted as anything else than one more. Although I'm not sure what you would like to consider as a positive or negative comfirmation on behalf of my reaction to that...

These ploys of yours surely are entertaining and at their best they can produce results. I'm the last one to condemn good ploys as such. But aren't they also - with these quantities - a nice veil to let you say this and that, run around to your enjoyment and comfort everyone that you are safe and sane behind the mask, just thinking about the best of the village? I mean sometimes it looks that you are flip-flopping more than Lommy at her best. Wouldn't an intelligent wolf do just that? Gain trust with the general air of her/his effort so that people do not pay heed to the things s/he says even thoug they may every once in a while (when s/he succeeds) result in lynching of the innocents? And any misfired cases could always be explained away as mere ploys... I know you do this ploy-stuff when you're innocent but that wouldn't hinder you for doing them as a baddie too.

[the phantom]

I don't have time to say much. I'm leaving and will be gone the rest of the day.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

and your insistence on my innocence can't be interpreted as anything else than one more

Nope. I just happen to think you are innocent.

As to the rest of your post, all you are basically saying is that if I were a WW I might act like I am acting now, and that if I am innocent I would also act like I am acting now. My only response to that is "yes", as it is simply a statement of fact and nothing more.

Since I must vote now I'm just going to follow Ang (who is obviously innocent) and vote for-
++Eomer of the Rohirrim

If new evidence arises that makes him look innocent, then by all means cancel out your votes for him, but don't expect me to, for I will not be present for the rest of the evening.

Good luck.

[The Saucepan Man]

I do not recommend lynching Esty today. Her "Werewolf in the style of BD forums/for a/forumdirrim/forum-tee-diddle-dum" was far too amusing to let her go just yet.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Fair enough, you don't want the wolves to discover your plans, but I'm getting pretty confused by all this secrecy.

Me too. I have no idea what the phantom is on about most of the time. I’m mainly just humouring him.

And yet ...

Originally Posted by Esty

For some strange reason I can't define, I still trust the phantom. If he really is a WW, he's a good one!

If he were a Wolf, he would undoubtedly be a good one, and this game in particular would be a dream for him. However, I am increasingly of the view that he is not a Wolf. I still have this residual fear that I am being taken for a fool in this matter, but I’m going to go with my instinct on this one. For now, at least.

Originally Posted by Noggie

I know you do this ploy-stuff when you're innocent but that wouldn't hinder you for doing them as a baddie too.

That is undoubtedly true, but I can (and did) see the sense in what he was trying to do. I didn't catch on to his "strategy is useless and a Wolfish win will be based on pure luck alone" ploy exactly, but I certainly recognised it as an attempt to elicit a reaction. There may well be something in Roa's reaction to it. That said, her reaction was pretty typical for her, whether guilty or innocent. Worth bearing in mind, though.

Originally Posted by Mith

I am very confused but one thing I am certain of is that Nogrod has been far too quiet here while being relatively active in another place

I suspect that if Noggie were a Wolf, he would have been much more active here.

Originally Posted by Elempi

Eomer has been rather quiet and rather disengaging, and his posts nonchalant and disarming. I don't trust that in him.

Quite the most sensible thing that you have said all game. I don’t trust him either.

Eomer’s analysis of morm’s death and his implication thereby of Kath does make some kind of sense. But, since morm was such an obvious Wolf-kill, I suspect he may be reading too much into it, quite possibly deliberately so. And now Ang tells us that it was prompted by his "honey trap". Hmm, I rather think that Eomer’s idea (whether genuine or false) had been simmering rather longer than you allow for it, Ang. That said, the fact that he put forward this rather unnecessarily elaborate theory does further arouse my suspicions of him. Overly elaborate theories always arouse my suspicions of those who put them forward.

Which brings me to Elempi ...

Originally Posted by Kath

lmp and Sauce and the spat between them are causing me some worry.

Well, it’s not really a spat. I find him suspicious and he finds it tiresome that I should find him suspicious as it is so passé. I find it rather tiresome too, in fact, but suspicions are stubborn blighters once aroused.

Originally Posted by Mith

Yes but we can't assume that it is the "two innocents tearing each other apart scenario" can we...

It wouldn’t surpise me. I am a veteran of such futile struggles. And yet …

Originally Posted by Ang

If I have one major worry, it is that an innocent LMP should be attacking Sauce more vehemently...

That worries me too.

Originally Posted by Elempi

SPM & the phantom, please be so kind as to defend yourselves.

My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Don't you see? I came out in support of the "WWs in competition" theory in an effort to get the WWs to gun for each other. I didn't actually believe it for a second. If I myself was a WW NO WAY would I gun for my brother/sister.

As I said, I cannot speak for sure about SPM's intentions, but if you look back at post #182, it makes my innocent intentions clear.

Well, I can speak for my intentions. My original idea about the Wolves being in competition was genuine, as I did believe that to be the case at the time. I still do, to an extent, given what we have been told since. But I did also have the intention of trying to get the Wolves at each other’s throats, since that could only be to the village’s advantage.

The fact that the phantom picked up on this and supported it, even though he did not fully agree with it himself, only reinforces my view of his likely innocence.

Originally Posted by the phantom

But now that you've spoken up, the ploy is, without a doubt, worthless.

Not as far as I am concerned. I still firmly believe that both of the Wolves wish to win this thing as the surviving Wolf (and, if they do not, they should). As long as the other Wolf is around, that doubles their chances of being killed (by night as well as by day) and potentially interferes with their choice of nightly kill.

I am rather inclined to view that finely wrought but (ultimately) implausible and potentially damaging theory of yours as a further sign in your guilt, Elempi.

Any more ploys I should be looking out for, phantom, or are you all ployed out for now?

[Nogrod]

I have no time to make an all around -scan here so I'll stick to those still alive and who received no votes on Day1 (by my "the careful wolf on Day1" suspicion)

Eomer of the Rohirrim
Estelyn Telcontar
Kath
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Roa_Aoife

On the following I will not include any judgements of myself as that is the task of you others.

On Day1 / basic points
Of these the safest game was played to my eye by Eomer, Estelyn and Kath. To my opinion they would make excellent Fea-choises for a wolf too – as would many others, that admitted.

Mith’s vote for Bb was a risky one, maybe too risky for a wolf (even if it didn’t result in any actual votes in the end). I will exclude her from this notion onwards.

Roa played somewhat as she normally does. That might be interpreted “safe” in a way, but she at least threw her neck in and got involved. And tp: Roa is a firm believer in reason and arguments, just like you seem to be – and as I am. Unfortunately we are put in the test in this game as the room has been narrowed quite considerably.

If we add to this the voting, I think that the wolves would not like to spread the vote in the last moments / would be inclined to cast early votes. But basically, if anyone else than them is gaining votes a wolf would like to add gathering votes to that one / those ones. The wolf acts alone now and the situation differs a lot from a normal game: all the usual “bandwaggoning principles” don’t hold here. It’s harder for us to read and thence easier for the wolves to join as they do not need to care about any connections as there are no (we can’t speculate whether X knew what was the status of Y as no one here knows but her/himself and if the lynching of another wolf might be a positive thing for the other - so everything goes for the wolves as long as it's not themselves).

So of those possibly not-notified, it can be gathered:
Eomer gave an easy and early vote for lmp.
Kath went to give tp his third vote, explanation: random but biased.
Estelyn brought Boro up to two “based on several next-to-nothings”.
Roa spread the vote giving Di her first for over-defenciveness.

Paying heed to my theory about the wolves preferred voting style, that would make Eomer, Kath and Estelyn look the most suspicious ones.

On Day2
Eomer has mostly sticked with making arguments that frame himself, but also made a reasoned list of people based on a principle, having a row of sorts - pretty tongue in cheek for his part - with Ang.
Kath has been quiet and defended her quietness with the reason that she will only gear up on Day3-4. Very convenient for a wolf if we should all wait.
Estelyn: “Perhaps she (Fea) thought that (I, Estelyn) would make me less calculable for the strategic experts...” after that lots of fun.
Roa continued with typical Roaishness. As on Day one. No clear read-outs there. She would act the same anyhow. I'm the last one to come forwards with open trust on her but really that does not ring any alarm-bells with me either. And about what both tp and Spm have been suggesting, she might be strict with her honour but in any case would defend logical argumentation and grounded votes over anything even suggesting randomness, and do it fiercely. Trust me, I've played with her a several times.

Eomer made again an early vote (decent guy, goes to bed early...) for Kath in concerto with his mirror-theory about Morm's death.
Esty brought Di to two.

To conclude:
- Roa I see as playing herself. That is both a good sign and a worrying sign. You just don't know about her. Not my vote toDay, anyway.
- Esty, if played only in one game so far, I will truly look at her with not a lynch in mind toDay, even though I must agree with the few that she would make a first-class Fea-pick and her actions might be easily seen as a careful wolf's deeds.
- Eomer has been a bit weird but then again he has been making some actual points and sticked with them toDay. Nevertheless much more tame and easy that I would have expected. Self-condemning moves might also be pure Eomer(-wolf).
- Kath has been so reserved. As she so often is in the beginning of the game. But I have seen her conquer with that style before, just from too near...

I will go for

++ Kath

She has a self-defending armour of not being of any use in the first Days. And she seems to stick with it. It might be honest, but I have seen her use it to her advantage too. It is no good if some people are let to live Day after Day just because they will be possible assets later - thence giving them peace over the maddness of the first Days also when they are baddies. Also her vote on Day1 followed the line I thought the wolves might wish to do.

tp, I know your point about just stating the fact (it might be or not) truly applies here too (as with yourself). But with this little to go for with anyone in these time-limits I would rather not see a sneaky wolf under radar.

I'm deeply conscious that I'm also giving a second vote to someone toDay... But that is the best I can come up with at this moment. I need to sleep now.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Which brings me to Elempi ...

Well, it’s not really a spat. I find him suspicious and he finds it tiresome that I should find him suspicious as it is so passé. I find it rather tiresome too, in fact, but suspicions are stubborn blighters once aroused.

My dear Elempi, your theory is perfectly plausible. Except for one thing. If the phantom and I were both Wolves, and had identified each other as such, then there is no way that either one of us would wish to see the other outlast him, bragging rights or no bragging rights.

I am rather inclined to view that finely wrought but (ultimately) implausible and potentially damaging theory of yours as a further sign in your guilt, Elempi.

There you have it. I am now convinced that Espiem's suspicions of me have less to do with the facts of this game and more to do with his inclinations. Therefore I'm done engaging Espiem as nothing I say will affect his inclination. Attack away, Espiem, I'm more than tired of it, and will not engage. You see, this is a game, and games are supposed to be fun, and this has stopped being fun. Okay, moving on.

As I said at the head of my theory post, I wasn't sure I believed my theory, and what has been said tends to reinforce that the phantoms was speaking the truth, which does not, mind you, make him pure as the driven snow; more like pure as roadside snow in March. I guess I'm just not used to innocents, IF he's innocent, being more devious than (or as least as devious as) the werewolves. I guess I've learned something then. Thanks. Be that as it may, I'm going to follow through on the one thing that has gotten corroboration from a number of fellow players, and that is the suspiciousness of Eomer.

So my vote is changing based on these corroborations:

--Diamond

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I for one consider SPM and the phantom to be supremely capable of such a ploy and counterploy set-up, especially if the two werewolves are looking out for each other. Remember, Fea has stated that if one werewolf wins, both werewolves are considered to have won. So all the talk about one werewolf defeating the other is smoke and mirrors.

I would like to remind ourselves of the widely-known fact that the villagers come forwards with much more imaginative ploys than the wolves normally do execute. Also the wolves come up with much more sophisticated schemes some people might be at to cast suspicion on innocents.

This surely seems not to be a "normal game" and Spm & tp might be ones to come up with pretty imaginative stuff. But still I'm afraid lmp is overthinking it here.

Also, thus far I have an impression that those two are making actively the most sense in here even though they do not share all the points. That doesn't mean they are not wolves. Not the least. The best wolves speak sense and are thence trusted. But this far I wouldn't wish to lynch them (even though the magnitude of their posting makes the reading of this thread pretty laborous...). Naming someone innocent at this point I would call a bit hasty, but not to be lynched might do well with me, now.

The latter point I think is also more complicated than lmp considers it to be. Surely the existence of a rival wolf will interfere with any plans the other wolf would like to execute. That fits beautifully with the general dynamics of this game where all rational approaches are discouraged and partly barred. So the other one will hinder her/him and should be removed. The killed wolf has been granted bragging rights but we all would know who was it that won in the end.