Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go

[Lhunardawen]

I'll start with a post analysis of my biggest suspect, Farael.

#16 - Threatened Lhuna, considering that as the middle ground between distancing himself from her or saying she is innocent, both of which he perceived as Lover tactics. Fair enough, I suppose. He has had experience being a Lover, so he has an idea how it works. And we're really supposed to be suspicious of everyone in this game. But now that I think of it, it's a bit of an overreaction. It's a silly random vote, for goodness' sake.

Suspected Holby of werecreatureness for putting the villagers in categories. And she turns out to be a Lover, which is more or less the same thing in this game. He got a Day 1 hunch relatively right again.

#21 - Suspected Holby and Lommy of being Lovers, because the former "forgot" to add the latter to her list. Lommy pointing out that she had been missed was too innocent a behaviour, he said.

"...and those of you who know my playing style should do well in listening to me. It has been proven perilous for the ordos to ignore me."

I suppose he means that he normally gets first Day hunches right. Well, to be fair, it has happened twice (possibly more) before. And in one of those, he happened to have inside info. Now, even if he's a villain, he can't have inside info in this game. I just find it disturbing that he should say this, as though desperate to gain our trust.

#51 - Said he doesn't claim to be the Seer, and once again pointed out to his famed hunches. Would have almost voted for arcticstorm because of his erroneous claim that everyone voted for him because of Lhuna. Insisted on Holby's guilt. Twice told us to lynch him if we want to clear the air around him.

Another overreaction re arcticstorm.

#54 - Voted for Menel. Told the village to kill Holby for him should he die.

End of Day 1

#71 - Admitted that his self-preserving vote for Menel turned out to be an overkill, and was willing to take all the blame the village wants for it. Once again insisted on Holby's guilt because of her ill-explained vote. Suspected morm because he was still alive. And turns out to be right, again.

#74 - "...I will have to undergo a forced silence soon enough"

You know, there's something about him claiming to be dead soon each time, yet each Night he emerges unscathed. I can't quite put a finger to it, but it's really creeping me out.

A long post in which he once again insisted on Holby's guilt. He said too much here that I can only see being said by a genuine innocent, but we never know. Everyone can be sincere about wanting to get a suspicious person lynched, even villains, because they naturally want to be the last team standing.

#84 - Disagreed about killing all males, and this suggestion by Holby added to his doubts about her. He had good points, actually. Then again, he IS a male.

#91 - Voted for Holby. Thought morm sincere, but still wanted to keep an eye on him. Also thought Fintaeph sincere, and said that if he's a baddie he's doing an awfully good job at it.

End of Day 2

#116 - "I told you so" post about morm being a baddie. Considered having Rikae lynched for her silence.

The "I told you so" part irked me, honestly. Can't he just rejoice? Was that utterly necessary? As for lynching Rikae, it must be the effect of being in Werewolf XVI, and for that reason the suggestion made sense to me.

#124 - Suspected Valier with Jenny's death, and the fact that someone pointed out a possible Jenny-Valier pair the Day before.

#132 - Thought Kath may be sincere (in her assumption of a Mac-Farael pair) or may be up to something that Mac may be trying to get us off the trail. Thought Rikae defensive in going after him. Asked her if she's scared that we'll listen to him.

He has a point that Mac may be a villain. But what's that provocative statement to Rikae about?

#126 - Suspected a Valier-Rikae pair. That's how I understood the post.

#140 - Was quick to wonder if Valier would say that she is in love with someone. Really, all this forward-ness is making me uneasy.

#145 - The post to which Valier responded "Reactions to accusations tell all." Perhaps this is why she wanted us to look at him toDay.

"Hey, I may be bad for all you know, but then maybe you know better.... yet I'm still pretty proud of myself over my perfect record on first-day suspicions. Yes, it may be luck, but let me enjoy my fifteen minutes of sham... *ahem* fame.

Would you like your shoe with salt or perhaps mayo? I'm an ordo.... but I am getting even a stronger feeling you are not. I'd vote for you now, but why hurry?"

I don't understand why he had to point out his perfect record. And he's more sure of Valier's guilt because she suspected him? I don't get it.

#160 - Voted for Valier, said Rikae was a close second.

I already responded to this post.

Okay...so the Farael I know does do rather haphazard accusations, a fault we may attribute to a careless ordo or a bold villain. And he had been both in the past. There is nothing remarkably different in the way he plays now than before, apart from the fact that I don't think he ever "bragged" that he gets things right this way. This for me speaks against his favour.

[Lhunardawen]

Goodness, that took longer than I expected. Sadly I only have time for general impressions right now.

Rikae - Generally flew under the radar the first two Days, but emerged from her silence yesterDay and made plenty of sense. I doubt a werecreature would risk that absence, knowing that she could be lynched for it, but it's interesting that she emerged just in time.

Mac - Reading Kath's analysis of him made me suspicious of him, though he answered some of the points raised against him. That he voted for defenceless Durelin speaks against him, because it would be hard for us to question him for this vote.

Durelin - Successfully flew under the radar, as far as I'm concerned. If she's the last Werecreature...she can almost win this if we don't stop her.

Sadly I don't have time for actual quotes right now to support this, but I have a feeling that our last pair is Farael and Durelin. It can't be Farael and Rikae, as the latter voted for the former early yesterDay. Farael and Mac is a possibility, but if so, they are a very bold pair. Farael and Durelin barely mention each other, and it's interesting that Farael is quick to suspect everyone but Durelin. Not a good strategy for a Lover, but it could be that he can't risk it.

But wait...Durelin voted for Farael yesterDay! That's quite a sincere-looking mistake about time. Hmmm...does this mean Farael is actually innocent?

So, it could be Mac and Durelin, Mac and Rikae, or Durelin and Rikae. Who knows? All I'm sure is that I'm single and unavailable, thank you very much.

Sheesh, all that analysis of Farael for nothing. At least that's how I see it. You might see this differently. So I'm going for my second suspicion, the one most likely to be associated with someone...

++DURELIN

And I'm going to sleep. Here's hoping that I don't wake up in the Halls of Mandos, because if so that means the village lost.

[Macalaure]

So.. Kath is dead. Can't say I'm very surprised after all. The way she missed the first day pretty much gave away that she was an innocent. I mean, if she was otherwise, she would have pmed her lover or the mod, and either one would have told her to get into the fray - and quick!
I was her main suspect by a wide margin. There was her suspicion of me and Farael being a couple and her saying that I and Lhuna are not.
I think Kath made a very fine safe pick for the bear and his/her lover. Kinda fits in with the previous kills of Kitanna and Jenny, though we don't know whether they in fact had a solid suspicion about Jenny.

Rereading the last day made me a little suspicious of Farael again, and kept my suspicion of Durelin alive. I only had time to have a really close look at Farael (which might now look pretty useless after Lhuna's detailed analysis, but anyway). I hope I can manage a short analysis of Durelin later.

Farael is bold. That's nothing new and it's of course not suspicious in itself. But there are some specifics about his boldness that I think are weird.
- There's his argument against Rikae in #132. Just like Rikae immediateley points out, it makes no sense.
- he says he likes Kath's analysis of me, finds Rikae and Valier suspicious and thinks we should have a close look at the silent ones (Durelin and Valier). With the exception of Lhuna and Kath this covers everyone.
- his counterattack on Valier in #145 was quite aggressive, but I'll let it pass. What wonders me more is that he praises himself with his correct suspicions. In this particular game, that means nothing! (as Nogrod taught us some games ago, it never does, in fact) I understand he's happy that he's right, but come on...
- then in #160 he points out he's been playing the same way since three games. I think I couldn't play two days in a row the same way even if I tried.
- why does he point out that he would never notice if Lhuna is evil? Even if it's true, why did he point it out?

No offense intended, but I would hate, I would loathe to lose against someone who is so outspoken about his own innocence and this since the very first day. It would make us all look pretty stupid. I know this is no argument at any rate, but I just had to say it.

I'll be back later to vote, and hopefully to have a closer look at Durelin.

[Macalaure]

What? Nobody else has posted in all that time??

I have to vote and I can't put as much reason into it as I liked to.

++Durelin, again

The other possibility would be voting Farael, since I find Rikae rather innocentish and Lhuna very helpful and well-balanced in her arguments. Durelin steered herself very much along the all-female-pair direction, which taken for itself is okay, but she takes it as far as to not looking at me and Farael anymore. Look at the way she was against the Farael-Mac-pair-idea! Since I know I'm not her lover (and no lover at all) I fear that she and Farael might be the last couple, but I'm not absolutely certain.

[Durelin]

I'd just like to say that you are indeed screwed... And am under the impression the Lhuna and Mac might be our final pair.

Just because one is wrong in their suspicions does not make them guilty. I wished to wait to vote, because before it came down to the end, the vote was garnering for people I did not then suspect. I now wish I had gone with Kath's continued suspicion of Mac...

I love Lhuna's last post here...she makes a big long analysis of Farael, a favorite among the suspected ones for a long time, and determines that of course I must be his lover...but the fact that I voted for him, at the deadline, means he must innocent. Yes, he simply must.

And then she votes for me...where's that nice big long analysis?

Mac's post is the same way...he analyzes Farael, and runs off only to come back and just vote for me...no "closer look." Maybe he didn't have the time...just like Lhuna?

Everyone has forgotten that on Day One we almost lynched Farael, and yet the people who voted for Menel and swayed the tie are all dead...except for Farael himself. None of them were his lover...otherwise he wouldn't be here. Rikae I can't be nearly as 'certain' about, but I actually agree with Mac's simple reasoning about her just enough...

Please, Rikae, Farael...I really really hope you're innocent...and if you are, please help me. I think you two are innocent...if you were here, I might not be so certain, but I think that at least one of you would have been active already today, if one or both of you were not innocent. Still, that doesn't necessarily mean anything...

If you aren't innocent...well, help these two lynch me and make a big ninny out of me.

Talk about flying under the radar...has Lhuna actually had anyone vote for her? Not as far as I can tell... Ugh, I wish I had paid more attention to her...

++Lhuna

[Farael]

This is a tough one... I don't have a lot of time and yet I don't really think Durelin is all that guilty. Problem is, I'm not sure Lhuna is either, but if I vote for a third option Durelin will be lynched for sure. I guess I'll hold on to my vote, let's see if Rikae shows up... Ugh, if there's one horrible thing about playing Werewolf against people you've PM'd with is that I just can't get myself to mistrust Lhuna... and yet, the fact that she is such a nice gal may be the reason why she's reticient to kill me. After all, if both her and Mac had voted for me, odds are I would have gotten lynched... and at the same time, why not? would Lhuna let her friendlyness affect her judgement that much? and would Mac, her lover (if that scenario is correct at all) let that happen as well?

And what if Durelin is trying to put the wool over our eyes? what if she IS actually guilty?

[Rikae]

Oh, boy. I'm almost sure now that Farael is guilty. I was very suspicious of him yesterday, and then innocent Valier warned us against him. If I'm right, his lover knew that he would be a likely candidate for today's lynching, unless she came up with a clever diversion (I say she because Mac seems very innocent). What could be better than appearing to suspect him, pinpointing someone else as his lover, and then voting for that someone else? If Lhuna suspected Farael so strongly, shouldn't she vote for him? Her reasoning in voting for Durelin is completely convoluted, as well: first she argues that Farael seems guilty, than says Durelin is probably his lover; than that because Durelin voted for him, she definitely isn't his lover (not necessarily true, especially when Farael wasn't in much danger at that point), and then votes for Durelin! Does anyone else think this makes absolutely no sense?
My vote most likely will be for Farael. Maybe Lhuna's initial points (which could have been a ruse to distract us) are right, and his lover is Durelin - or maybe my suspicions are right, and his lover is Lhuna. Either way, we win.
I would also like to say that it seems unlikely, at this point, that we have a female-female pair. Remember, Di said she might have same sex pairs, but the three that have died so far have all been male-female. This would have been by chance alone; the odds that the oonly same-sex pair would also be the last to survive are 25% those that they would have died already and since they didn't, they don't exist, 75%. It's not impossible, but I'm going with the best odds.