Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXV: All Star Crossed With Nowhere to Go

[Lhunardawen]

morm, you forgot Durelin. Kitanna is innocent.

Which is an interesting vote, actually, as it spread the options to seven people. Her reasoning was that Kitanna seemed to be flying under the radar, and it bothered her. Fly-away? It's a safe vote in that it was well-reasoned, for a Day 1 vote...for now, I'm inclined to trust her.

Right now the person still standing out most to me is Farael. I know by history that he really tends to be...like this. He's speaking too rashly to be a bad guy. But then again, he almost always did, jumping to all sorts of suspicions and all that, but this time it seems more...jumpy. Argh, it's hard to read. My suspicious guess is that he's trying to look ordinary (because really, an ordo has nothing to lose being killed, compared to all the other roles, so he can say all he wants), and should the Watcher suspect him, that's what he'll see. A Lover? That's still the best I can come up with. But for now I'll be keeping as keen an eye on him as my sleepy self could, especially since he voted for Menel when he was already safe - why didn't he stick to his suspicion of Holby and voted for her?

Just a thought...I suppose Nogrod wouldn't be so careless as to leave us a bold hint to his role? Did the werecreatures kill him simply because he's a formidable foe? I'll take another look at all he said.

Look here, this is interesting:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As I said, I have no objection, on the basis of what I know this far, for Farael to be lynched. I'm not going to die with him. This is a question of basic tactics.

Not that I know what to make of it.

Also, he said to threaten my knights in shining armour and see what happens. I have them? Oooh! I always knew I was a Sleeping Beauty.

Anyways, from what I've read, I think he dreamt of an ordo (or at least ordo-seeming) first Night. Sigh. This is really such a tragic loss.

Valier...her vote was just too something to come from a baddie. Surely she knew of its repercussions...or was she too evil to care? And whatever happened yesterDay to those thoughts she said she was about to post? Right now, though, I'll give her the benefit of the doubt, but she's definitely worth watching.

Fintaeph voted for Menel when Farael was already safe. There's also something strange about her reasoning. On my watch list...

Holby...to save Farael? If so, that was some spectacle from Farael. Who would think they are working together?

So, right now I find Farael, Valier, Fintaeph, and Holby most questionable (note not "suspicious"), and there needs more to be heard from Jenny, Kath, and Rikae. But knowing me, that's likely to change as soon as I post this. Sheesh.

[Lhunardawen]

Why is everyone else asleep? I thought I was the one with sleeping sickness here.

I realised that if we want to trace each death to a killer, we have to consider their motives. Were they trying to kill the Watcher, or their fellow Werecreature/Lover?

The story said:

Nogrod - a Smith of the Billmarins - (watcher) - Savagely murdered by the Werecat and devoured in the long grass

Arctic Storm - Raving Alcoholic, Resident Moocher, and Lover of Naria (lover) - Devoured head first by the Werebird

Naria - Lemba Baker - (werecat) - Dashed out her brains on the Ringbearer's Rock

Kitanna - One Legged Chambermaid - (ordo) - Ripped in two by the Werebear

Rune - Humungous Fungus Grower - (ordo) - Minced up into fertilizer by the Werewolf

Okay, so it was Naria who killed Nogrod. But who would kill arcticstorm, Kitanna, and Rune? And why?

This is too much to think about; I hope I don't fall asleep in the attempt. I'll try to be back with my thoughts on this.

[Lhunardawen]

arcticstorm:
In the weird post #36 he says Lhuna's vote comes of a sleeping disorder, and having such, and so little to go on, she couldn't be expected to give a good vote; Holby's list was unsuspicious; Mac's "what ifs" on werecreatureness could be very helpful in the future, not that he is one; Farael's gung-ho attitude towards Holby could be attributed to panic and confusion and is not necessarily suspicious, but his constant argument that everyone's voting for him because of Lhuna is ridiculous (incidentally, Lhuna also finds this observation ridiculous, because she has seen nothing of the sort); and he wanted Mac to elaborate on why he found Rune a little strange, because he didn't.

Kitanna:
She declared Farael and Holby as not particularly weresomethingy, but both worth close watching (post #24). In post #50 she expands on the issue regarding Farael, saying that if Farael was a Lover he should have had someone defending him by then, and she mentions Mac's example as an un-Loverly (too feeble) attempt of doing that.

Rune:
He found Holby's list humourous and a good read, and shouldn't be used to justify voting for her (post #18). Same post he said that he didn't think Farael was Lhuna's lover just because he didn't retaliate, and that he himself had often defended Lhuna. Seven posts down he voted for Farael because this annoyed him:

Originally Posted by Farael

and those of you who know my playing style should do well in listening to me. It has been proven perilous for the ordos to ignore me.

Hmm. For all we know all of this says nothing. Make of it what you will. I'm tired. Zzz.

[Kath]

Yes morm, there is a reason for my no show yesterDay. Pure stupidity. See the admin thread for details.

But yeesh! 5 dead. Ok that's one lover pair down but losing our Watcher sort of negates that. It seems that morm in particular is keen to lynch the (previously) main candidate from yesterDay. So, who wants to give me a reason why we're assuming Farael is evil? I've only skimmed yesterDay's posts so far so a nice concise explanation would be lovely.

So, let's look at Lhuna's question: Who would kill arcticstorm, Kitanna and Rune?

I think arcticstorm's death was due to the fact that he didn't really have anything concrete to say yesterDay. He asked questions of others to gauge their suspicions but had few of his own. Either someone thought his death wouldn't leave a trail or they did actually see this as being symptomatic of being a Lover. Now he was taken by the WereBird. So with the former explanation we're looking for someone who wants to cover their back and with the latter someone who wants to get rid of the competition.

With Rune I think it's possible that he was killed either by Farael or to set Farael up, because his suspicion lay entirely on him. Having read most of the posts from yesterDay I think the former more likely, as it seems quite a Farael-ish thing to do to kill someone and then claim that it couldn't possibly have been him because how stupid would that have been, it must have been a set up.

I'm not sure why Kitanna would have been killed, unless it was simply that one of the creatures felt threatened by her. Sorry, stuck on this one.

One person I'm not sure on is Lommy. Her first post is very ... sensible would be the best word for it I suppose, and full of what we can and can't do to win. I dislike this kind of post because it attempts to dictate how we do things so it could just be my own opinion coming through, but I'm just not sure it fits Lommy.

And of course we can't forget dear old morm. Amazingly so far he doesn't look all that suspicious. However, there are a couple of points. One is missing out Durelin as Lhuna pointed out, possible Lover pairing though I don't really believe morm would slip up like that. The other is the push on Valier for what he thinks is a 'knee-jerk' reaction. The thing is the Valier always behaves that way. If she's on our side it's good for us, and perhaps we should look at Jenny, but if she isn't then woe betide us, for our resident evil-weeder-outer isn't really present.

So, an explanation for the suspicion over Farael please (though having gone through the posts a few times now I'm certainly beginning to see it) and then I'll try to work out who I'm actually suspicious of so far.

EDIT: Cross posted with Lhuna.

[Macalaure]

So right now there's 6 innocents and 6 baddies. Since we lost our watcher, there now is no difference between the guilty and the innocent lover anymore.

It is a weird thing actually. I know I'm innocent, so there will be more guilty than innocent people reading this. Although the baddies will probably try to lynch other baddies at day like we all do, they have a second thought in saying what they say. So of the arguments that I read there will be less honest ones than crooked ones. Makes you paranoid almost.

I'll have a look at the crazy train.
It was started by the lover pair arctic and Naria. Strange behaviour for a couple. I guess they really thought him guilty and maybe were looking for a lynched were-creature under their belt.
Then the watcher Nogrod joined. Was it really just to put pressure on somebody else? Was his saying "Farael is still most suspicious to me" a feint and in fact he dreamt of him and tried to save him inconspiciously? But even if that is the case, there are three innocent lovers and five real innocents (plus me) now, so it's not reliable anyway.
Holbytlass crossed with both Naria and Nogrod, so she didn't know of the importance of her vote. Her reasoning isn't the best and what she said long before was unsubstantial joking. I'm a little suspicious of her.
Next in line is Kitanna, now known innocent. Thought Farael innocent and wanted to save him. Proof that you can defend somebody without being in love with him.
Then Fintaeph voted short before the deadline. He said Farael might be innocent because nobody came to defend him. He then votes Menel, whom nobody cared to defend either. Hmmmm...
Then finally Farael voted him, but he knew his vote wouldn't change anything anymore. Interesting Farael told us to retaliate if he dies. He knew he was not going to get lynched, so he was talking about being killed at night. This would be of course ridiculous if he turned out a dead lover. It might be a bluff, though.

[Thinlómien]

Knowing that half of the village is evil is certainly not something to calm my mind... Really, instead of a few villagers, a suspicion list should include half of the people. I must say that the baddies are playing quite well since no one really stands out to my evil-detector.

It seems I was wrong about Naria. Well, everyone makes mistakes...

While rereading, a few things caught my attention. First of all, Durelin's long post was very odd. I don't know precisely why, but it makes me wary of her. It's somehow shady and saying nothing while saying a lot, and her vote is more than weird. If somebody is flying under the radar, what does a vote for the person help? (especially if it's a single vote from a person who thinks the lynch is already sealed?)

I'm still suspicious about Mac. Besides that I still think his first post yesterday was a bit strange, I'm used to hear more contribution from him and this time he has been somehow softer than before; I'm used to a bit edgier Mac who is not afraid to accuse or speak.

Morm's theory yesterday about Farael trying to convince us about he being the watcher is a bit far-fetched I think. It would take a very cunning and a very bold baddie to do that, and I'm really thinking such person would be an especially cunning and bold person and (no offense) Farael does not strike me as a person to this. Rather I think morm might be up to something...

I'm not trying to say that I feel Farael innocent, though. On the contrary, he's suspicious. He's over-jumpy and his cases seem to pop up from nowhere. He was the same the last time I played with him and he happened to be a lover that time. I wouldn't be surprised to find Farael guilty, either a werecreature or a lover.

It seems Lhuna is the only one right now I have a quite clear opinion about. She seems quite innocent.

Holby's vote worries me too. She did not voice any suspicion of Menel before voting and she did not seem to be having a strong suspicion of him. Her vote seems joining a bandwagon for the sake of joining a bandwagon and that definately is not very innocent behaviour.

And that post of Nogrod's...

As I said, I have no objection, on the basis of what I know this far, for Farael to be lynched. I'm not going to die with him. This is a question of basic tactics.

I think he just said that he does not have anything special against lynching Farael since he was not Farael's lover.

And I've asked Di, Fin's a he.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Fintaeph]

Hi all,

Well, that was quite the first Day/Night. :-|

Let me say, first, that I'm winding up an all-nighter for my RL job, so please excuse me if I'm not entirely coherent.

In answer to the four people who've questioned my late vote for Menel last night, I can really only say what I said then: I had no really strong suspicion of anyone, though my attentions were focussed on Farael and Menel. I read the entire log four times before voting. The only thing that really stuck out was how Menel kept demanding to know why mormegil suspected him, even after morm voted for someone else. That felt decidedly odd. Many of you referred to your past experiences with each other when making your decisions. Bear in mind that I have no such past experiences to draw on. I made the best choice I could with the information I had available to me. To be honest, I didn't really count the votes for and against when I voted -- I figured I should make my choice for my own reasons.

Obviously that choice was wrong. But seven of us -- nearly half the village -- made the same choice. Please do not single me out merely because I was last.

In terms of the evening's events, I'm glad that at least one pair is dead. The odds are even now, when voting, that we'll pick an enemy over a friend. That's better odds than yesterday, at least, though perhaps that is not a happy thing. The better news it the werecreatures now have a 4 in 9 chance of killing each other tonight, if we are unable to lynch a pair today.

Today, I will be taking a closer look at Farael. Things didn't seem to add up, yesterday, but as Lhuna pointed out, 4 people who suspected him are among the dead. That seems kind of high, given that only 4 people voted for him. Yes, I'm aware he could only have been involved with one death. Still, he has had a stroke of good luck.

The only other person I currently have any suspicions of is Valier, and that only for the very flimsy "he that smelt it, dealt it" reason: she was first to post this morning, which could indicate she was hanging around from the Night. As I said, pretty flimsy.

In any event, I have to be back at my RL job in 3 hours, so I'd best get some sleep. Hopefully, I'll be more coherent (and still alive) when I check in here tomorrow.

And Menel, if you're reading: I'm sorry.

G'Day, all . . . .

[Macalaure]

Reading the thread back and forth (since not much else is happening), here are my thoughts of the moment.

probably innocent:
Kath - only one post so far, but that one looks good.
Lhuna - helpful and reasonable today.
Fintaeph - I buy his explanation for his vote.
Durelin - I liked her approach yesterday, good points.

unsure:
Farael - I can't believe a lover would act like he did yesterday. I need to hear of him today before I can read him.
Lommy - I can't put the finger on it, but I'm getting a bad hunch about her.
Jenny - need to hear more of her.
morm - still can't read him. Tough nut to crack.
Rikae - still hasn't posted.

suspicious:
Valier - her vote yesterday was strange. Did nothing to relieve my bad feeling.
Holby - nothing substantial from her. Suspicious vote.


If my unsuspicious villagers are all innocents (which is unlikely, of course), then there's only one innocent in the unsure group. I could live with a lynching of any of them and my suspicious ones just because the chances are that good. I need more input from the five.

One thing I just wondered about is why Lommy is so sure about Lhuna's innocence. Not that I disagree with it, but why does she point it out so explicitly? Lovers? Don't think so, too eye-catching. Maybe a lover preparing the scene for the safe kill of somebody who is assumed to be innocent by most?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

Lommy - I can't put the finger on it, but I'm getting a bad hunch about her.

Hahaha, if I were you I wouldn't trust your hunches about me, remembering the last game...

One thing I just wondered about is why Lommy is so sure about Lhuna's innocence. Not that I disagree with it, but why does she point it out so explicitly? Lovers? Don't think so, too eye-catching. Maybe a lover preparing the scene for the safe kill of somebody who is assumed to be innocent by most?

She just happens to be the only one I feel more innocent than "unsure" or "suspicious".

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Lhuna

why didn't he stick to his suspicion of Holby and voted for her?

Quite simple, my dear... as someone mentioned, self-preservation.

Ohhh but Menel was dead already anyway! Check the time stamp of my post and that of Diamond's.... I suddenly remembered that it was time to cast my vote, read through the other posts (ok, I'll admit it, the other VOTES) quickly and without counting them I saw that my only chance to survive was Menel's death. I voted for him, hoping that my vote would be enough. As it turns out, it was overkill

Alas, 'tis a sad proposition for it obviously makes me look more suspicious, yet I hope you forgive my Day 1 hooplabloopla and listen to me now that I actually have something to say.

We all know that, specially on Day 1's, I come out with my own little theories and stick with them even if it costs me my neck. But how about now? Holby was, at first, somewhat vocal... then I started leveling some (slightly random, I'll admit, but not completely unfounded) accusations and she said nothing other than an ill-explained vote. I'll take all the blame you want for my vote for Menel but keep in mind that, while I do not fear being called to the halls of Mandos, it is not something I WANT to do. What's her word on her vote?

And let me start another accusation on flimsy grounds that will cost my neck for sure. Yes, I know he has expressed doubts about me, but does anyone else find morm being alive slightly curious? Unless we are dealing with a group of werecreatures that have never played with him before, out of FOUR kills, no-one thought of getting rid of that mormegil? he's a danger to them if he is an ordo, and he's even more perilious as a lover or a werething.

Yet I'm not going to say "lynch him because he survived"... just keep an eye on him.

Overall, I still find Holby the most suspicious. I shall vote for her today, unless my neck is, again, on the line or if there seems to be a tie between two other people.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, it is likely that I shall cast my vote early today, for I have a.... erm.... thing (lab at University)... until 9 30, which means that if it runs late I would miss voting as a whole. And even if I managed to get to a computer by 9 30, I wouldn't have time to read everything. On the other hand, maybe I'll take my chances, or I'll show up to vote in between the two labs... erm I mean things I have today.

[Holbytlass]

As for my vote, despite Fareal's odd attack against me , afterall he is a mad elf, he didn't seem too worrisome and he already had 4 votes. I didn't want to join the bandwagon. The votes were already spread so wide, at the moment of deciding who to vote for Morm's points about Menel seemed as realistic as it could get being first day. I was assuming to be only the 2nd vote but cross-posted with Naria and Nogrod putting Menel tied with Fareal. It was Kittana's (deceased and innocent) vote that broke the tie with Fintaeg's and Fareal's vote putting him in the lead.

However, even that leads to almost nowhere because there were others who could've voted and changed things. Sheesh, I'm at a loss. Going to go back through threads....

[JennyHallu]

OK, so we're definitely seeing a strong Farael vs. Morm dynamic. Unfortunately we must remember that our usual ways of seeing the world are rather messy in this game. They could both be deluded innocents, they could be one and the other, they could both be evil yet opposed, they could even be secret allies. *sigh* I sense a headache.

The points that have been made against Holby make a lot of sense to me. I'm used to seeing her much more helpful and clear...but we've seen only a day one, and I know several of us were taken a bit by surprise by the start of the game. I'd like to hear more from her.

I"m going to do some work and then read through some of yesterday's posts. Hopefully I'll have some stronger feelings later, because right now I just feel like we're groping in the dark.

EDIT: X'd with Holby...