The Tol-in-Gaurhoth Grimoire

[Macalaure]

Folwren said the following in the Battle of the Bands Game:

An innocent is more likely to be killed this first day than any of the following!

Well, I'm too much of a geek to let this great opportunity to gather some statistics pass.

I have looked at 31 Werewolf Games (the summaries in the Grimoire or the summaries at the end of the newer games, if there are faults in them, they're in here as well - and probably some new ones..)


Here we go!


Day 1:

# of Ordos lynched: 20
# of Gifteds lynched: 4
# of Baddies lynched: 10

This makes 71% innocents, 29% baddies.


Day 2:

O: 21
G: 4
B: 11

69% innocents, 31% baddies


Day 3:

O: 23
G: 0 (!)
B: 17

58% innocents, 43% baddies


Day 4:

O: 19
G: 3
B: 12

65% innocents, 35% baddies


Day 5:

O: 18
G: 1
B: 10

66% innocents, 34% baddies


Day 6:

O: 11
G: 1
B: 5

71% innocents, 29% baddies


Day 7:

O: 5
G: 0
B: 6

45% innocents, 55% baddies


Day 8:

O: 3
G: 0
B: 0

100% innocents



Over to the conclusions.

- The average is 65% innocents and 35% baddies, so roundabout two thirds of all lynchees were innocent.

- Day 3 and 7 are the lucky days of the village.

- Day 6 is as bad as Day 1.

- If you weren't able to get the last wolf on Day 7, you're screwed.

- Folwren's claim does hold, but not very much. The chance to kill an innocent on Day 1 is just 6% worse than the average, and it's even tied with Day 6.

The chances don't seem rise or fall in a way that would suggest there's some nice function behind it (I was hoping to see something like that, but the identity is nice too). The results go over and under the average as they will.

Does this now mean that intelligence is over-rated and randomness would work just as well? I'm puzzled.