The Tol-in-Gaurhoth Grimoire - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Macalaure · 10-03-2006, 10:02 AM

Folwren said the following in the Battle of the Bands Game:

Quote:

An innocent is more likely to be killed this first day than any of the following!

Well, I'm too much of a geek to let this great opportunity to gather some statistics pass.

I have looked at 31 Werewolf Games (the summaries in the Grimoire or the summaries at the end of the newer games, if there are faults in them, they're in here as well - and probably some new ones..)

Here we go!

Day 1:

# of Ordos lynched: 20
# of Gifteds lynched: 4
# of Baddies lynched: 10

This makes 71% innocents, 29% baddies.

Day 2:

O: 21
G: 4
B: 11

69% innocents, 31% baddies

Day 3:

O: 23
G: 0 (!)
B: 17

58% innocents, 43% baddies

Day 4:

O: 19
G: 3
B: 12

65% innocents, 35% baddies

Day 5:

O: 18
G: 1
B: 10

66% innocents, 34% baddies

Day 6:

O: 11
G: 1
B: 5

71% innocents, 29% baddies

Day 7:

O: 5
G: 0
B: 6

45% innocents, 55% baddies

Day 8:

O: 3
G: 0
B: 0

100% innocents

Over to the conclusions.

- The average is 65% innocents and 35% baddies, so roundabout two thirds of all lynchees were innocent.

- Day 3 and 7 are the lucky days of the village.

- Day 6 is as bad as Day 1.

- If you weren't able to get the last wolf on Day 7, you're screwed.

- Folwren's claim does hold, but not very much. The chance to kill an innocent on Day 1 is just 6% worse than the average, and it's even tied with Day 6.

The chances don't seem rise or fall in a way that would suggest there's some nice function behind it (I was hoping to see something like that, but the identity is nice too). The results go over and under the average as they will.

Does this now mean that intelligence is over-rated and randomness would work just as well? I'm puzzled.

Kuruharan · 10-03-2006, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Does this now mean that intelligence is over-rated

I've said that for years.

Seriously, the problem is that there are too many intelligent people who have reasonable theories they want to try and these theories are usually mutually exclusive (to say nothing about mutually destructive)...and then there are the wolves to consider.

Thinlómien · 10-04-2006, 01:42 AM

Very interesting, Mac.

Though:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure, bolding mine

Day 3:

O: 23
G: 0 (!)
B: 17

58% innocents, 43% baddies

Macalaure · 10-04-2006, 02:26 AM

Quote:

58% innocents, 43% baddies

The one is exactly 57,5%, the other 42,5%.

Thinlómien · 10-04-2006, 02:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The one is exactly 57,5%, the other 42,5%.

Okay, that clears it up a bit. I was wondering how 58 and 43 add up to be 100...

Kuruharan · 10-15-2006, 05:36 PM

The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 18, and 21=12.

The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, and 24=11.

The Black Beornings have not won.

The Lovers have not won.

A Tie occurred in 16=1.

We have almost achieved parity!

Thinlómien · 10-16-2006, 04:13 AM

I'd never have believed it that has been that equal... I have the feeling that the good guys win (far) more often. Maybe I've just played too much junior-games which maybe have a higher villager-victory percent...

Lhunardawen · 10-16-2006, 08:24 AM

Three consecutive village-won games? Wow. I think I can die happy now, if I'm not yet already dead.

10-15-2006, 05:36 PM	#6
Kuruharan Regal Dwarven Shade Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold Posts: 3,593	From the desk of the Lord High Scorekeeper The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 18, and 21=12. The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, and 24=11. The Black Beornings have not won. The Lovers have not won. A Tie occurred in 16=1. We have almost achieved parity! __________________ ...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no...

10-16-2006, 04:13 AM	#7
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	I'd never have believed it that has been that equal... I have the feeling that the good guys win (far) more often. Maybe I've just played too much junior-games which maybe have a higher villager-victory percent... __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

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10-16-2006, 08:24 AM	#8
Lhunardawen Hauntress of the Havens Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: IN it, but not OF it Posts: 2,538	Three consecutive village-won games? Wow. I think I can die happy now, if I'm not yet already dead.