Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Eonwe]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Some more math. We have eight villagers remaining. Two are wolves, one is the Ranger and one is the mytho, meaning that 50% of the village is not ordinary. My question is if anyone thinks revelations would be helpful at this point.

NO! I don't think we have enough to get much of a benifit right now. I'd say, cross your fingers, and hope you get thorugh this time, until the wolves have killed off enough to make the ratios a bit more pleasing. But obviously, its your choise.

At a bit of a loss right now, I'll focus on Durelin's list of Lommy, Ka,and Rune.

[Boromir88]

Boromir there is no need to get angry or defencive~Rune

There was no anger in my post, or at least none intended. It was defensive though, but that's how I am when I get suspected.

Some more math. We have eight villagers remaining. Two are wolves, one is the Ranger and one is the mytho, meaning that 50% of the village is not ordinary. My question is if anyone thinks revelations would be helpful at this point.~Celuien

There is also the possibility that the Mytho is another ordinary innocent.

I like Durelin's reasoning, though I still don't find Rune to be a wolf. I think he's just being led in the wrong direction. As I have a feeling that the wolves are sitting back and letting us go after eachother. Which would be a smart thing to do for them, I would think. They are keeping those who could be a problem for them occupied by us going after eachother and just lynching eachother off. Instead of killing us at night. Because why would the wolves kill the talkers if they are completely wrong with their suspicions?

I think right now we are approaching this the wrong way. The wolves will keep around the talkers as they know they can be influential and sway the vote, and will keep us talkers around as long as we aren't big thorns in their side. So, that means I'm going to be taking close looks at

The Ka (who seems more active today like she's anxious to keep the people who are talking against eachother and come under scrutiny) View this post.

Eonwe, who's being like Eonwe, the quietness and randomness is typical. Which gets me worried.

Lommy, like I said yesterday I was willing to give her a little benefit because of the advanced warning ahead of time about not having a great amount of computer access...but that's not going to continue to fly especially since I really don't find Nogrod, Celuien, or Rune to be that suspicious as of right now.

After thinking a little bit, I realized there really wasn't all that reason to suspect Celuien. I think I was just grasping at some straws and trying to make a connection between Menel's suspicions of her and then Menel's death. What she's said today I agree with about the mess of voting that ended yesterday.

I don't think I was dreamed of either, nor do I think Celuien or Nogrod was dreamed of. She all seemed rather unsure about us. She had no suspicions of us at the time, but there's a note of uncertainty. Durelin is really the one she comes out best to defend:

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Though I guess there is a little bit of uncertainty in this post...the 'I just don't know.' It just sounds like Diamond has defended Durelin more than the rest. She felt 'comfortable with Durelin at this time,' explaining her post 98 as likely just grammar mistakes. There always has to be a bit of uncertainty with a Seer if they want to lay low. It just looks here that she has defended Durelin more than anyone else in Nogrod's list, which looks right to me. Also, with what Durelin's reasoning in her last post, I don't see a reason to suspect her at this moment.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Cel

All I can say about yesterday is arrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhhh.

That sums it up pretty well. Please, dear people, no double lynches without a good reason. They benefit the wolves, because it's very probable that more innocents die.

(I will post more in a while, I'm off to explore yesterday's voting.)

[Thinlómien]

Okay, rereading yesterday's voting did not make me any wiser.

However, here come my opinions on my fellow villagers:

THE Ka, Nogrod and Rune all have an innocent air to me.

THE Ka's reasonable arguments and her early attack against Volo make me feel more at ease with her. She's not jumpy or flip-floppy; she seems rather calm even when defending herself.

Of Nogrod I could say that he's contributing. (Surprise! Surprise!) He does not flip-flop and has good points. Overall, he seems innocent. Actually, his a bit hasty attack on Glirdy on Day1 and his "I suspect everyone" - attitude yesterDay speak for his innocence too. Usually he seems to be more aggressive as an innocent than as a wolf, so this comforts me too. (Or maybe I'm just too tired to suspect him this time too... )

Rune's reactions to things feel very genuine. I hope I'm not undersestimating (or insulting) Rune if I say that as a wolf he normally leaves trails and alarming signs and is thus normally caught pretty soon. There have been none this far.

I won't be voting any of these three today.

Then, we come to the less clear cases. No one rings an alarm, but no one assures me of their innocence. These people are Cel, Durelin, Boro and Eonwe.

Like so many of the others, I'm inclined to believe Durelin innocent. Nothing in her worries me in particular. She acts as I've seen an innocent Durelin act. (Though, of course she can be a wolf who's bluffing well.) Unless she does something remarkably suspicious today or I am forced to vote her to save some of those I feel more innocent I won't be voting her today either.

Eonwe is a dangerous questionmark. His randomness and quietness make him a scary opponent. I still guess he's innocent and he has not made any especially wolvish actions and my gut-feeling tells me so ( = he's innocent) too, but I do not dare to trust this Sir Donkey since I have so little to go on. Speak up, Eonwe, please!

I guess that leaves Celuien and Boromir to be the remaining wolves. I'm pretty confident at least another of them is a furry beast. I distrust Boromir more than Celuien.

One of my reasons to suspect Celuien is this:

Originally Posted by Volo, the dead wolf

Celuien: Now here is a strange one. She hasn't said anything good today, or then I'm too blind to see. She might be a wolf but today we can't vote her out really can we?

When I read this, it screamed to me "fellow wolf, fellow wolf". The legendary wolf tactic; suspect, but not too strongly. I might be underestimating Volo's intelligence or ability to do tactics in ww (sorry if I'm doing so), but I think it'd be very easy for an inexperienced wolf to act this way. (More experinced players could maybe avoid this since they know how people usually expect wolves to treat their fellows.)

I must admit that my suspicion of Celuien and Boromir is based on general impressions and feelings of other people's innocence rather than pure reason and facts. I will thus try to manage to do an analysis of both of them in order to clear my mind and hopefully bring up something new points, either for or against their guilt.

[Nogrod]

I'm back too and have just read the posts written after my last visit.

This is getting annoyingly complicated! (OOC: that's why I love this game!)

With a quick glance I might join those who think that Durelin's list is the best we have thus far and will try to see it further.

I also tend to agree with Boro that there may be something very crafty going on behind the curtains as all the "talkers" have been looking at wrong directions after Day1...

And then one more thing. I'm not sure whether Di was taken as a random. I have started to doubt it somewhat. Think of it this way. Firstly, the wolves had just gained a jackpot (three dead innocents) so they really could afford a little more risky kill the next Night. This would have been their chance to go for it! But they didn't. Secondly, my family-memoires tell me that when the lycanthrophes come up with a suspicion that someone is the Seer they will go for her/him whatever the cost. And as Di didn't overtly behave like a Seer, she must have gotten something right by chance to make the wolves go after her?

Or then those beasts were just incredibly lucky in being somewhat careful non-risk takers last Night...

[Thinlómien]

Glad I'm not the only one around.

I reread Diamond the Seer's summary post. If from that I would have to make out who she dreamed of, I'd say Durelin and Folwren. She seems to be most sure of Foley's innocence and Durelin she frees of guilt with rather mystic reasons "I don't know why I don't suspect her". Maybe these were the clues why wolves were after her. I don't know.

Please, please fellow villagers, as stupid as is to do a double lynch is to narrow down the number of lynch candidates because Diamond might have dreamed of them. Seers can trust some people though they have not dreamed of them. Just like ordos do. And they can get it wrong, too. I think whole this list-business is leading us to nowhere.

Now, I'm off, but I will return about 2h before the deadline. I have a bad feeling that I won't be able to complete my Boro-analysis.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Boro

There is also the possibility that the Mytho is another ordinary innocent.

True. But that would also give us another known ordo - the mytho and the ordinary pick. Almost like having another dream...

I haven't time to go through an analysis right now, unfortunately. Gut feeling tells me that Nogrod and Ka are innocent. Eonwe's response to my question a few posts up felt right, which leads me to think that he is also innocent.

Boro has calmed the suspicions I had yesterday, which may or may not be a good thing. His lupine ancestors have been quite good at tricking me. Be that as it may, I'm back to trusting him again on the basis of toDay's posts, though this is subject to change at any moment. I have trouble feeling certain about him.

Which brings me to Rune. Rune's pressing me to explain the details of why I thought Glirdan innocent is unsettling. I can think of a couple of very good reasons to let that topic drop. He's my top suspect right now. And since I may not back it back before the deadline:

++ Rune

If Rune turns out to be a wolf, Boro's defense of Rune may implicate him. Otherwise, though I find it hard to get a read on Lommy, she may be the other wolf. I just can't tell.

[Nogrod]

I'll go with a couple of suggestions.

I fully agree with Lommy that the Seer is as prone to make wrong judgements as we others are. Di's vote for Mac yesterDay kind of underlines the fact.

But I still would like to cross-examine different possibilities we have here.

1.
Di's a known innocent by now, so there is no malice included in her thoughts and as it is highly probable that she knew at least of one innocent, let's se her list once again.

Of those yet alive she held innocent:

Durelin:

Durelin I feel fairly comfortable with at this time. Not sure why, as she hasn’t posted very much and her Day 1 post was kind of flaky. But I’ve seen Durelin play before as an innocent (heck, as a gifted) and this isn’t unusual and doesn’t mean she isn’t being helpful. In #98 she brings up a phrase of Mac’s that I also puzzled over – however I ended up just deciding that his grammar was off and am not sure whether anything more can be read into it. If it is a slip of a deeper kind, could be quite telling, but I don’t know, those kinds of phrase fudges can be innocently made in haste.

Nogrod:

Augh. The idea of going through all Noggie’s posts just killed me a little. But since he has been very talkative I’ve already formed a feel for him, and I don’t suspect him at this point. His vote for Volo speaks well, unless it’s a fenrising, but I’ll worry about that later if I should have reason to. For now, I’m not even considering voting Noggie so I’ll skip re-reading all his posts.

Boro:

Boro is kind of the same story as Nogrod for me. If I had been able to start this earlier and not forced to cram it into 2 hours, I’d go over his posts but I’m starting to do this shorthand. At any rate, he voted for Mac whom I was also a bit suspicious of yesterday (still am) so nothing about that raises red flags.

Celuien:

Celuien feels pretty innocent to me at this time. Her posts have all been calm and reasonable. Maybe she gets her serenity from knowing who are wolves and who are not, but at this time I don’t feel suspicious enough to start speculating on that. Nothing factual really supports it. She cast a vote for Volo at a time when putting him in the lead on a day notorious for spread out votes, so unless she was trying to fenris wolf him, I look favorably on her voting record.

She seemed to be unsure about:

Eonwe:

Day 1 is pretty much par for the Eonwe course as far as I know. If I recall correctly, he usually gets lynched just by annoying people with his random voting. Day 2 he speaks less, but gives a pretty well reasoned vote for Glirdan (as these things go). Right now I haven’t really got a feel on him either way, but I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get a feel on him in the past, so this isn’t surprising.

Lommy:

Well I don’t have much to go on. I really have nothing to observe on except that I dislike not having anything to observe on. She did seem to overestimate my posting, saying

I’m not sure who’s posts she was reading but it wasn’t mine. I mean, I did start in character, with links! And then said nothing of great consequence beside yawning over the Day 1ishness of the Day so far. So. Weird. Also, she called me cuddly. Like Snuggles the Fabric Softener Teddy Bear? Them’s fighting words.

Yeah, so basically, a whole lot of nothing. Shady….

The Ka:

Bit at a loss about Ka. She voted Volo for reasons I don’t quite understand, and since she turned out to be right could be seen as having good instincts or being in the know. Her vote was cast at a particularly safe time, being the first to vote for Volo, so this could well be wolf-on-wolf tactics. On Day 2 she has so far made some statements speculating on how the wolves are behaving, which kind of doesn’t give me much of an idea about anything.

Rune:

I’m still kind of clueless about Rune, which made me uncomfortable enough to vote for him Day 1. However, I think I have enough suspicions of others after Day 2 to vote for one of them.

So it seems that Di wasn't going after anyone in particular (except Glirdy and Mac! ), if not for Rune, but even that was a bit mild.

It would be easy then to conclude that the wolves didn't kill Di because they thought she was the Seer as they had no reason to believe her the Seer in the first place? I'm quite ready to buy into that argument, but I still have some reservations with it. Something just dosn't feel right here. I'll try to elaborate that during the Day.

2.
But let's take another list first. Volo's list of other people from his last post just before he died (and I agree with those who say he wasn't quite up to the situaton and was writing the stuff with the following Days in mind).

I have checked Boro's neat listing (#100) and have added Boro to the "innocent -list" and moved The Ka from innocents to the "don't knows / unsures". I hope that looks fair enough to you others.

Who Volo named as innocent:

Menel - known innocent
Mac - known innocent
Lommy - ?
Nogrod - ?
Rune - ?
Boro - ?

Who Volo was unsure about:

The Ka - ?
Glirdan - known innocent
Diamond - known innocent
Durelin - ?

Who Volo thought was suspicious:

Folwren - known innocent
Eonwe - ?
Celuien - ?

So eight questionmarks there and two wolves among them. If the list would have ben made by a dying wolf named Spm, Morm, Spawn, or the like I would be quite ready to raise my hands and contend that we might as well forget the list as it would be full of bluffs, double bluffs, triple bluffs... But with Volo I might like to have a look at it.

I'm inclined to agree with Boro that Volo mightn't suspect his fellows openly (it's possible, though). So it would leave the "unsures" and "innocents" to be the possible wolves. After I have taken out myself and Durelin whom I consider innocent, as well as Boro, not so trusty as with Durelin, but still. It leaves me with a list of Rune, Lommy and The Ka.


So did I learn anything from this?

If Diamond was up to something and the wolves got nervous, then it looks a little bad for Rune, Lommy and The Ka, I would say. But, but... Di's suspicions of them are so openly roundabout, that I'm not sure whether they would actually make the wolves nervous in the first place. Then again, the list based on Di's "suspicions", "know nots" or "unsure ofs" or whatever, happens to be the same list I get suspicious from Volo's posting.

Must think about this further...