Tol-In-Gauroth XXIV: Battle of the Band[Wagon]

[Boromir88]

I'd thought Menel suggested laying out how to find wolves, and Boro had said that doing that would let the wolves use that info against us.~Celuien

Perhaps it was a bit confusing, but Rune put my words better than myself...odd, huh?

I don't think anybody said we should not talk tactics, it was more that we should not agree on a way to do things that would enable the wolves to manipulate us.

Let me give you this poker analogy, you don't want your opponent to know your plan, or how you are playing. Beacuse, if they do you are too easy to predict and the other players and they will make you pay for it. I find Werewolf to be the same, I don't want the wolves knowing my mind, so I won't say what I find to be wolvish. Now, if something does look wolvish to me, I'm going to jump out and say so, but I won't discuss what I'm looking for in order to find wolves.

I agree with Rune, if we all collaborate and set out what we think wolves would do, then they will make us pay for it. It will make our moves too predictable.

And one last thing: while I do appreciate the validity of the loud wolf/silent wolf theorists, I don't put much stock there. You can never predict the wolf demographics....~Eonwe

That's the thing. Menel does make sense with that assumption, as that tends to be the pattern with most wolves. Problem is if we go with this assumption the wolves will go with a different strategy to play to our liking.

Before I go off to bed here, just some general comments about people so far.

I agree with Folwren's thoughts about Durelin. I don't like randomness, it doesn't serve any help to us. However, I never understand why people find the first random voter of the day to be a wolf.

Which leads me to Glirdan, who is making me wonder a bit.

But before I do, I will cast a vote and I will say now that it is mostly random because I have no serious suspicions. But my vote will be for

++Durelin

Because of the random vote for Ka (bold-my emphasis)

Let me get this straight Glirdan...you go after Durelin because of the random vote for Ka, but you yourself cast a 'random' vote for Durelin?Seems a bit hypocritical to me.

Menel, Eonwe, Folwren and Rune all seem sensible so far. I don't see any reason to think they are wolves.

[THE Ka]

Gah, I wish I could stay longer, but due to RL circumstances (transportation, educational, family responsibilities,ect...), I will have to vote now or I'll be late, and that is just annoying for others and myself.

I'm not voting for Durelin, because of rather obvious reasons... Robert Smith vs. Morrissey, it's a conflict as natural to the art of music if there ever was, and not worth my vote because it would be a waste, and spoil the running joke.

Anyways, I will not vote for those who have not shown up yet to our potluck of first-day hypothesises, because it wouldn't make sense as well. Since I have to leave now, well before the deadline, or the last split second before deadline to have the last remaining to post then. In short, another waste.

The only vote that has any reason on a first-day basis (if there is anything of actual reason in a first day... ), that I might have to make is for Volo. I understand if they had to leave for RL reasons, I respect that, though they did post twice.
There is another reason besides this, that they seem to have too many hands out shaking other hands, or it looks a bit hasty how they made their conclusions so early.
Unfortunately, there never is anything for reason, or slight reason at that on the first day, but the haste and quick conclusions seems a little bit suspicious. I do not have anything definate in marble, or close at that, until later.

++Volo

[Diamond18]

Unfortunate for Sleepy to die such a grusome death, but it had to happen sooner or later., the man made enemies right and left. I'm just surprise that it was Werewolves and not one of the many talentless yet angry hacks he's eviscerated over the years. Death's funny that way.

Oh well, he called my band delightful, bless him. We were so happy to be invited to this event. Unfortunately the boys ran off with everyone else and left me all by myself with just a fiddle to fend off a pack of werewolves. Nice. Real nice.

As far as discussion goes... does anyone here actually have some stupendous out of the ordinary plan for taking on the wolves? *looks around* Yes/no? This is a fairly basic game, there's the Mytho but s/he won't be mixing things up till Day 2 so for now s/he is a non-factor. So, I mean, aren't we all going to just do what we normally do on Day 1's? Seems so, from the look of things so far. You've got your loud vs quiet points made, then there's the let's-discuss-tactics-no-let's-not-what-are-we-talking-about-anyway debate, add a little incharacter interaction, some early random votes, and a partridge in a pear tree with cinnamon for flavor. I think I'll strangle the partidge with a fiddle string and roast it for dinner though, so that takes care of that.

I'll be around closer to deadline, so luckily I don't have to vote too terribly early, for once. I can't promise I'll have a really good reason for whoever I end up voting for, but I should be able to base it on something other than character or what have you.

For now, it seems to me that the people who've voted so far, and voted fairly randomly, had no choice but to do so. So those of us who have the luxury of waiting around and reading more posts shouldn't really be getting our undies in a bunch over the level of random in each vote. In other words, I don't think Durelin or Glirdan are particularly good lynch candidates. In fact Glirdan's vote wasn't even random, it was just based on extremely thin reasoning. But then, hello, Day 1, early.

[Macalaure]

Hello and good morning, fellow bands and singers. Or should I say mourning? Sleepy is gone and we are left, soon to be gone as well, if we don't watch our path - and our fellows.

I couldn't have put it better than Di. This is an extremely Day-One-ish Day One so far. The only thing missing would be someone claiming to hate Day-Ones. Would one of the wolves please act foolish so that we can spot him/her? No? A pity...

I don't have anything more to add right now. Discussing tactics is nice, but since never ever all of us will agree on one, it pretty much leads nowhere.
So, no one seems wolfish to me at this early point. Hope that will change. See ya!

[Thinlómien]

Alas for poor Sleepy Cowell. He was surely not the nicest person on earth but didn't deserve death.

*a mourning song with a didgeridoo*

Folwren's first post caught my attention.

Originally Posted by Folwren

And don't try to derive any strange and twisted meaning out of this first post be cause there isn't any.

Hmmm? Weirdly said, made me wary of her... Somehow over-defensive maybe? But she's been making sense otherwise, so maybe I'm just imagining things. (A wolf can make sense and sound convincing too, though, it has been proved in a few games...) I don't know what to think of her, but I guess that I won't be voting her today (she contributes), but I'll keep an eye on her, at least before she explains that statement of hers.

Glirdy certainly flip-flops, but I of all people won't be accusing him for it. After all, if one tries to make a reasonable vote on Day One before even a half of the day has passed the result is most probably that the reasoning is quite weak and thus the vote is quite "random". A weakly reasoning-based vote is however very different from a random one that has no reason - even a weak one - behind it at all (like Durelin's). Hopefully that made sense. I don't see Glirdan or Durelin as very suspicious ones (Durelin, as far as I know, plays normally like that) though certainly not as sure innocents either ie their behaviour gives me no clue of their roles.

That's all I have to say right now, except I could echo Mac that no one seems particularly suspicious.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Would one of the wolves please act foolish so that we can spot him/her? No? A pity...

Well, we just might have something in here, Mother people...

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I will cast a vote and I will say now that it is mostly random because I have no serious suspicions. But my vote will be for
++Durelin
Because of the random vote for Ka.

Generally contradiction points towards lycantrophy. This is not even a bad contradiction, for it has been mellowed down with the "mostly".

But the contradiction as such is not the only reason for me to think about smelling a rat here. What I mean is.

Firstly. An innocent knows exactly why s/he is giving the vote and has no reason to hide it, be it an unsecure reasoning, a hunch or random or whatever. Moreover, early on Day1 there should be nothing tense in an innocents life so no reason to mess up with things.

Secondly. Wolves tend to make more mistakes or fumbles than innocents. This is totally understandable as the situation is tricky indeed, for unlike innocents, the wolves know the status of the one they vote. So every vote in that sense must be faked in a way or another. That it always harder than plainly saying what one thinks actually.

Thirdly. Two earlier points lead to wolves tending to over-act, trying to oversecure their "looking innocent" -image in front of their wolvery. And that's just what one could see Glirdy doing here.

As he can not say, that "as a wolf I will vote for this one innocent", so he must say something of the vote that is not true but which should sound innocent. But as a wolf is always a bit nervous, thinking constantly how s/he looks and how has s/he covered the tracks, it's easy to overdo it and actually defend one's (false) vote with two points that contradict one another.

Of the innocents only one with a very confused mind could do something like that, claiming to vote mostly random but still having a reason for the vote. But a wolf might just fumble this way.

Not much of a case, I admit. But the best I can make at the hour.

I'll be back later and hope to have something better that time.

EDIT: X-ed with Lommy

[Celuien]

I really think that Glirdan is just being Glirdan. Equally, I think Durelin is being Durelin.

And I'm yet another who thinks that no one is looking particularly suspect right now.

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm not too sure about Celuien myself. From what she said yesterday, she mainly repeats what was said and then says she will be going for the middle ground. I don't really find that extremely suspicious but something doesn't sit right...

(Meneltarmacil has left the building...but will return in a few hours.)