Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

'Forgive me, but I have pretty much resigned myself to the gallows.'*

*Play on a PotC quote.

Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...?

[The Saucepan Man]

For the sake of completeness. Here are my notes on the way that suspicion gathered around Rune yesterDay. Apologies for the lack of post numbers, but I am farily sure that it accurately (and chronologically) reflects the way things went.

The case against Rune really started when Gurthang picked him up on the contradiction between his being reluctant to vote for me just because I would be a dangerous Wolf and his Day 1 vote for Eomer. So, Gurthang was really the first to raise serious suspicion of Rune yesterDay.

Then Anguirel voiced some suspicion of Rune - although he was not Ang’s top suspect at that point. Kath and Durelin, then me, preceeded Rune in his poem/list.

I then noted that I was a little concerned over Rune due to the tenor of his first post of the Day.

Findesea was next to state Rune as a suspect, along with Gurthang and Lalaith.

Rune then identified Gurthang as a suspect for his picking him up on the "dangerous as Wolf" issue. He also suspected Anguirel (as he had on previous Days).

Firefoot noted Rune’s faulty reasoning on the “dangerous as Wolf” issue.

Anguirel weighed in with a comment about Rune’s defence being “extraordinary oratory” and put in the first vote for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-1).

Durelin then said that she thought Rune looked Wolfish (continuing her suspicions from the previous Day).

Caran included Rune as a possible suspect, although she mentioned him last after Kath and Lalaith.

Firefoot mentioned Rune as a particular focus of her intended investigations.

Gurthang categorised Rune’s reaction to his comment as “over the top” and indicated that Rune would be likely receive his vote.

Fin analysed Rune and concluded that he seemed to have been playing it safe and that he looked pretty suspicious.

Firefoot concurred with Fin.

Durelin voted for Rune (SpM-1, Rune-2, Lalaith-1).

SpM outlined strong suspicions of Rune (explaining the concern expressed earlier over Rune's first post of the Day) and gave him his third vote (SpM-1, Rune-3, Lalaith-1).

Lalaith said that she was torn between voting Gurthang or Rune (but voted for Gurthang).

Rune voted for me as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). It occurred to me that a vote for Gurthang would surely have been a better option, unless he was bargaining on me ultimately receiving more votes (and he could predict Taliesin and Glirdan would probably vote for me). Nevertheless, it's possible that he was protecting Gurthang.

Gurthang said that, even if it was between him and SpM, he would probably still vote for Rune. This is the comment that Lalaith picked up on earlier toDay.

Firefoot voted for Rune (SpM-3, Rune-4, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Gurthang voted for Rune, citing my likely innocence (SpM-4, Rune-5, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

Fin did likewise, although clearly cross-posting with Gurthang, also citing a belief in my innocence (SpM-4, Rune-6, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2).

The main point to come out of this I think is that, as I noted earlier, it was really Gurthang that started the suspicion of Rune. And many concerns had already been expressed about Rune (by Anguirel, me, Fin and Firefoot - in that order) by the time Anguirel cast the first vote for him.

This does rather speak in Gurthang's favour (and, less so, Ang's) unless there was a Wolfish plan hatched the previous Night to sacrifice Rune. But that scenario is a distinct possibility in my mind, given that Rune attracted the joint highest number of votes on Day 3.

[The Saucepan Man]

Sorry for jabbering on folks. Just a bit more and then I'll shut up. As I said, I want to get all this down now as I will be away for most of the rest of the Day.

I know Caran has already done an analysis of Rune's posts, but I had already largely prepared my own analysis, so I might as well offer it up for general consumption.

Day 1:

Unreasoned (second) vote for innocent Eomer.

Day 2:

Agrees with Formendacil that Eomer’s death was calculated to cause confusion. Expresses surprise at so many votes for Nilp. Was he perhaps directing us towards the Nilp voters (of whom Durelin, Ang and Firefoot remain unknown)? [#119]

Tempted to agree with Jenny re Jenny’s explanation of her vote for Holby.

Picks up on morm’s case against Ang - thinks one of them a Wolf. Cannot read Glirdan. Thinks Lhuna innocent (she was). Needs strong evidence to vote for a potentially helpful, but also potentially dangerous, SpM. Came to suspect Holby and Firefoot on the basis of SpM’s reasoning. TGWBS seems crooked (gut feeling). Won’t vote for Jenny. Likely to vote for TGWBS, Holby, Firefoot or, possibly, Glirdan. [#161]

Defends Jenny again, against Taliesin. [#179]

Finds that Firefoot has been helpful, so will not vote for her. That leaves Glirdan and Holby (TGWBS disappears from his suspect list, although he reappears on Day 3). Votes Holby because “she is capable fo more” (Ang-1, Lalaith-1, Firefoot-1, Form-1, Holby-1). [#189]

Day 3:

Expresses surprise that Jenny was the Hunter, but not surprised that she chose Form as her target. Challenges Glirdan’s assertion that he’s a vocal player. No prime suspect. [#227]

Analyses TGWBS, Glirdan, morm/Ang, Holby and Firefoot (his Day 2 stated suspects). Finds TGWBS very suspicious - quiet and confusing - and likely to get his vote. Finds Glirdan slightly suspicious. Still thinks either Ang or morm is a Wolf. Still suspicious of Holby, but unlikely to vote for her. Little suspicion of Firefoot because of her helpfulness. Thinks those not mentioned innocent for now. [#234]

Votes for TGWBS on previous reasoning (SpM-1, TGWBS-1). [#239]

Day 4:

Early post which says little, but which smacked of Wolvery to me. [#302]

In response to Di’s entreaty, would consider voting for SpM, but would need strong evidence. [#310]

Sees Gurthang as suspicious for picking up on his “dangerous villagers” comment. Sticking with his suspicion of Ang on the basis that morm turned out innocent. [#326 and #329]

Votes for SpM, supposedly as his best shot of surviving (SpM-2, Rune-3, Lalaith-1, Glirdan-1, Gurthang-2). [#355]

Summary

It looks to me like Rune may have been setting Anguirel up with his "theory" that either morm or Anguirel was a Wolf. This is a technique that an ancestor of mine used as a Wolf to lay suspicion on first one innocent and then (when he died) another. To my mind, that speaks in Ang's favour.

Most of those that Rune explicitly stated he thought innocent innocent or defended have turned out innocent (Lhuna and Jenny).

His main stated suspects were TGWBS, Holby and Firefoot, though he later stated that his supicions of Firefoot had eased.

He expressed mild suspicion of Glirdan, morm and Ang (and, on Day 4, Gurthang).

As far as I can see, he never mentioned Kath, Lalaith and Durelin.

[The Saucepan Man]

I should, perhaps, make clear that the analysis of Rune in my previous post was directed mainly towards what he had said about his fellow passengers, rather than being a comprehensive analysis of his posts.

There now follows an analysis of what others have said about Rune. It may not pick up everything as I was relying on the thread search function, and also rather tired at the time (as indeed I am fast bcoming at this very moment).

Day 1:

Anguirel notes Rune as an early suspect - although that arose mainly from banter. [#51, #57 and #71]

Day 2:

Glirdan’s analysis of the Eomer-voters is interesting (#132, #135, #136, #139, #140 and #143). He finds Rune slightly suspicious and places him fourth in the list after Taliesin, Diamond (I think he meant Diamond by Engels, since TGWBS is also included) and TGWBS (with Lhuna - whom he later voted for - fourth).

Lalaith picks up on Glirdan’s analysis of Rune (and Taliesin). [#160]

Durelin suspects Rune for his early (unreasoned) vote for Eomer. [#165]

Anguirel considers that Eomer’s death may have been intended to frame an Eomer-voter and thinks Rune the most likely victim of such a frame-up. [#181]

Firefoot, in a comprehensive analysis, categorises Rune as a blundering innocent and says he seems too unsure of everything to be a Wolf. [#183]

Glirdan seizes upon Durelin’s comment that Rune has posted little and says he finds that worrying as he considers Rune to be normally “a really vocal player”. [#193]

Glirdan subsequently mentions Rune, among others, before voting for Lhuna. [#196]

Day 3:

Glirdan backs down from his comment about Rune being vocal. [#237]

Gurthang thinks Rune makes some good points about TGWBS being unreadable. [#238]

In a comprehensive analysis, Lalaith expresses serious worries about Rune - for bandwaggoning against Eomer, bantering too much and picking on TGWBS as an easy target. [#249]

Ang not unduly worried about Rune (in the context of Holby-voters). [#252]

Rune tops Durelin’s suspect list (with also includes Holby and Anguirel, possibly Taliesin) [258]

Durelin votes for Rune (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-1, Glirdan-1, Rune-1). [#261]

In response to Taliesin, Glirdan explains his comments on the Eomer voters and Rune in particular - found him suspicious as an Eomer-voter, but less so than most other Eomer voters. [#264]

Of those with votes, Ang suspects Rune and Durelin - neither emphatically. [#268]

Lalaith votes for Rune in the absence of her other suspects as front-runners (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-2, Holby-2, morm-2). [#277]

Kath notes Rune as a lynch candidate, but doesn’t really know what to think of him. [#286]

Findesea gave Rune his third vote - at the death, so to speak (SpM-1, TGWBS-1, Firefoot-1, Durelin-2, Glirdan-1, Rune-3, Holby-3, morm-3, Kath-1).

For Day 4 - see analysis a few posts above.

Conclusions and thoughts about possible co-Wolves

Ang was to and fro about Rune from Day 1 through to Day 4, and even then Rune was not as high on his list as some others until the Gurthang spat. Possible Wolfish comrade.

Durelin was consistent in her suspicions of Rune from Day 2 on. Unlikely a fellow Wolf. But might be the innocent Lover, having been told of his Wolfishness.

Kath has hardly mentioned him. A definite possibility as a co-Wolf.

Lalaith was pretty firm in her suspicions of him on Day 3 and voted for him, putting him level with Durelin, Holby and morm on 2 votes, but did not vote for him on Day 4. Unlikely Wolvish comrade, but a possible innocent Lover.

Firefoot hardly mentioned him, noting him only as a blundering innocent, until the suspicion started to gather on Day 4. A possible Wolfish comrade.

Gurthang is in much the same boat as Firefoot with regard to Rune. His Day 3 vote could have been intended to save Rune and his Day 4 vote may well have been calculated to make him look good. A distinctly possible Wolfish comrade.

Glirdan mooted mild suspicions about Rune on Day 2, but didn’t really mention him much after that. Possible Wolfish comrade.

TGWBS has not mentioned Rune at all, but Rune was gunning for him on Day 3. The only credible possibility I see is that TGWBS is the Lover Wolf and Rune suspected him as such. Doubtful though.

[The Saucepan Man]

Right. I'm done. You will no doubt be glad that won't be hearing from me now until much later on (RL) tomorrow. I leave you with my own current thinking, based on all of the above.

Possible Wolves: Gurthang, Kath and Firefoot.
Could go either way: Anguirel and Glirdan
Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
Innocents: Caran and Taliesin

Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?

The though of a Wolfish Anguirel and an innocent Lalaith as Lovers somehow amuses me greatly. But I haven't really had time to go back and try to look for possible Lover connections, so my thoughts on the innocent Lover are tentative in the extreme.

And (except, obviously, for the known non-Wolves) my thoughts on the possible Wolves and innocents are by no means cast in stone. I'll make my mind up when I get back tomorrow and see what others have had to say.

Cheerio!

[Durelin]

OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Awww...and you had my hopes up...

Gurthang and Glirdan are looking the most suspicious right now, but that might change by RL tomorrow. Firefoot's up there, too. Kath is possible, but she's barely been around....which perhaps I should be more worried about, except that I feel for legitimate absences.

I haven't got anything more right now. Reading your analyses, Saucie, made me lose an ebay auction and I need to go and cry myself to sleep...

[Glirdan]

Okay, now I don't know what to think of Saucy. His analyses have eased my suspicions of him...somewhat. There's just something I don't trust about him. And those points Diamond brought up yesterDay...I really don't know what to think of him now...

Kath is also starting to worry me. She says very little and doesn't give any of her own input. She uses other peoples evidence for her reasonings without building on them.

Another person that's sligthly worrying me, and it's only because of a point that morm brought up on Day 2, is Ang. The death of Eomer is what really bugs me.

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

The rest don't seem overly odd. If anything, I'm inclined to believe that Gurthang and Durelin are probably innocent.

Idea just poped into my head! We all have that little nagging suspicion in us that either Taliesin or Caran could be the Wolf Lover (if you don't, then there might be something a little wrong with you). So, if we are to assume properly, the Wolves will be picking them off over the next two Nights. However, if one of them IS the Lover, one of the Wolves will be trying to persuade the others to keep away from that one. My suggestion is that if after the two Nights, one of them still lives, lynch him or her. That way, we get rid of the innocent who is not really innocent as well as getting rid of another Wolf.

However, just to ease my mind, I will still go back and analyse them.

[Glirdan]

Basically what I'm going to do is go over them quickly and see who they have defended constantly.

Taliesin: Quick Analysis

Day 1

All in character stuff. No defenses of anybody.

Day 2

Nothing here. Barely posted due to RL reasons I believe.

Day 3

Again, has barely posted and no defenses.

Day 4

And for the final time, no defenses. One thing I have noticed throughout all his posts, however, is he seems to be really consistent with his suspicions. I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes.

I shall do my analysis of Caran later. For now, I must depart. I shall be back from my nap shortly.

[Firefoot]

I'm still quite nervous of Taliesin and Caran, but only because it's possible one of them is the innocent Lover. I think we should go back and see if there's anyone either of them has protected constantly.

Glirdan, I wouldn't worry about them. The wolves will pick them off, unless one of them is the innocent Lover and we pick off a non-Lover wolf toDay or tomorrow (toMorrow? ), in which case we would know that the one still around is the Lover because they wouldn't be dead (unless the wolves decided to bluff it, I guess). But right now there is no point in focusing our energies on them. In fact, your pointing them out for further checking is rather wolvish; "let's spend time looking at our innocents, then we won't find wolves..."

I really don't see how he could be the Wolf Lover so he is officially cleared in my eyes.

...What? Of course he's not the wolf lover. If he was that, he would have looked like a wolf to the seer.

Glirdan is becoming increasingly suspicious to me; I definitely want a further look at him...

A thought: now that we're getting down in numbers, using gender to find the Lovers might be useful; theoretically, one of Durelin, Kath, or Lalaith (or me, from the rest of your standpoints, I suppose) has to be guilty. Same goes for Glirdan, Sauce, Ang, Gurthang, and TGWBS (but there's more of you). And I would say that it's probable that not all the wolves were the same gender - seriously, there was about a 50-50 gender split; it would seem unlikely that all the wolves were male and only the innocent Lover was female (or vice-versa). Sheerly from a probability stand-point, I think it's likely that there are two guilty people from each list; one from each is a given. I'm not really sure how useful this will be from a strategic stand point, but there it is. Kath, I still don't really see as a wolf because of the no-voting thing, but maybe an innocent lover... so Durelin or Lalaith as a wolf? Both of these two have been suspicious to me in the past - maybe that's where I'll start when I pick up with this tomorrow morning. (I didn't get home until about an hour ago, and it's about time for me to sleep now. I'll have more thoughts/comments then; Glirdan just stood out to me.)

Oh, and for those of you who prefer my format (I know I have a hard time looking at the other sort):

Sauce – 4 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10, Taliesin 12)
Rune – 5 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11, Gurthang 13, Findeasea 14)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Didn't the pirate who spoke these words end up avoiding the gallows ...?

Oh, gee, thanks. That brings hope to my heart.

Almost everything since I left has been Saucepan Man. I wish I had time to read it, because, glancing at bits of it, it looks pretty good. I think you're right about most of it. Well, except me.

As for my suspicions, Glirdan's little analysis of our known innocents is somewhat strange. Seems like he's trying to shift the focus off of finding the wolves.

[Caranlondien]

I have serious suspicions of Gurthang, but I don't want to vote for him just yet.

Firefoot is right about the gender ratio. Out of Durelin, Kath, Lalaith, and Firefoot, we probably have one or two wolves. I know that either the innocent lover or the wolf-lover is in there, because I know I'm not the lover. So I suggest concentrating our efforts on the females. So that's one evil person guaranteed, and chances are there's another one. I tend to eliminate Durelin from the suspect list, because she seems very un-suspicious. As for the other three, I'm just not sure... yet. I'll be back, after some reviewing.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

In-character stuff in her first post, then shows up saying she won't be voting.

Day Two

#163: Surprised by Eomer's death, since he had garnered so much suspicion; thinks the wolves must have thought he was the Seer. Suspicious of Jenny for "I-told-you-so" comment.

#182: Agrees with Holby's points about Jenny. Doesn't seem sure what to think about morm's attack on Ang (suggests it could be a set-up, or wolf-Ang trying to make it look like a set-up, decides morm is probably innocent, then adds that he does seem overly jumpy, though). Seems to take Lhuna's claim that Firefoot is the wolf-lover seriously, considers Lhuna might be the Seer, but decides it's improbable. Her suspect list comprises Jenny, Ang, and Firefoot. Polls the village (where's DancingSpawn? ) about our opinion on Lhuna's "claim".

#187: Consults the rules concerning the Seer and sees the Seer can't see the ordo-lover's lover status, but wonders if she can see the wolf-lover's lover status. (I just have to note that that may have been one of the most awkward sentences I've ever written...followed by this sentence, which used the dreaded "that that"... okay, [/grammer geekiness]... I should really go to sleep )

#191:

Ugh, well. I'm going to keep Lhuna on my suspect list because it was just such a weird thing to do.

This seems like rather an innocent statement to me.... I'm not sure why exactly, it just strikes me as ordo-ish.
Votes Jenny.

Day Three

#242: Thinks there isn't much point in looking over Jenny's posts because she was probably killed for gifted-hints and not for Seer-ish statements, but looks back over them anyway. Says since the wolves felt comfortable killing her, she probably wasn't close on any of her suspects. Finds herself agreeing with suspicion of tgwbs.

#243: Analyzes tgwbs, concludes he is unusually quiet - could be a wolf, could be an irritating ordo.

#286: Distressed that she has come back with 4 minutes left to find a tie. Won't vote Holby. Doesn't know about the other three.

#288: Votes morm to break tie, because he's the only candidate she's had any suspicion of all day. Seems genuinely anxious.

Day Four

#348: Says due to RL difficulties, this will be her only post. Doesn't like tgwbs's suggestion to have the three known non-wolves make lists of doom because they might be ordo-lovers. Comments on the morm-Ang "one is a wolf" theory, states that by the time he died, morm's suspicions had turned more to Glirdan than Ang. Says she won't vote SpM until she or a known innocent has analyzed him, as Diamond seemed already convinced of his wolvishness. Votes Glirdan. Plans to look more closely at SpM, Ang, and (if he's still alive) Glirdan the next Day.

Day Five

She hasn't appeared yet toDay.

----------------------------

I don't think she's a wolf. For one thing, there's her early no-vote. Then there's her vote for Jenny, who I'm sure by that point all the wolves had pegged as a gifted. She doesn't strike me as someone who'd be that bold as a wolf. My memory may be a bit fuzzy, but I seem to remember her being a very quiet wolf, flying under the radar, and not taking any chances. Granted, she's been quiet, she's flown under the radar somewhat, but she has been taking some pretty bold chances.

[Caranlondien]

Day One

Some in-character stuff first, then...

#50: Points out that Eomer, Fin, and tgwbs have yet to speak, and agrees with SpM that we ought not to vote for people before they've shown themselves. Thinks the voting records will be easier to read than usual, because with the Lovers around the Wolves will be more wary of wolf-on-wolf votes.

#52: Suggests SpM and Ang look up their biblical queries on Google.

#62: Corrects Nilp about how Eomer characterized his actions (he said unwolvish, not wolvish) but disagrees, thinks it's merely Nilp-ish.

#68: Uneasy about Form. Doesn't like the Eomer-bandwagon; doesn't want to vote for Nilp either. Looks like she's trying to get out of casting a deciding vote.

#72: Decides to vote for Form.

Day Two

#109: Thinks the wolves must have thought Eomer was the Seer. Wonders why they thought this.

#110: Corrects Fin about the Hunter-Ranger relationship.

#124: Doesn't think the wolves would be so silly as to allow a grudge to motivate their killing of Eomer. Thinks it was probably because they thought him Gifted or because they wanted to waste a Seer dream.

#126: Corrects Caran about Nilp's role (Ranger, not Hunter).

#160: Finds herself believing contradicting things as she reads different people's theories. Points out that who posts first is more determined by time zones than by wolfishness. Points out Eomer could have been mistaken for the Seer because he pegged someone as innocent. Thinks Glirdan has made some interesting points about Taliesin and Rune

#178: Says due to RL, she can't comment as much as she wants. Worried about Form and Taliesin. Votes Form.

Day Three

#226: Not surprised that Jenny was the Hunter, and doesn't blame her for suspecting Form, but notes she did begin to wonder about him after his total non-appearance the Day before. Says she'll be making a post of her thoughts on everyone. Says she prefers to use observations to draw conclusions, rather than trying to find a suspect who fits one's preconceived notion of what how a wolf will be acting, as she says Fin seems to be doing.

#230: Responds to Fin's response.

#231: Wishes Fin a happy birthday.

#249: Notes flurry of last-minute activity and much un-reasoned voting yesterDay. Gives thoughts on everyone so far. Chief concerns are Caran and Rune. Wants to hear more from morm about Jenny's list.

#255: Asks morm if he thinks that because Jenny removed Gurthang and Firefoot from her suspect list, they may have thought it safe to kill her.

#277: Votes Rune, bringing him up to a tie with the leaders, Holby and morm, both known innocents. A very risky move for a wolf, especially since Fin nearly got Rune lynched that Day - if she had voted a bit earlier, he would have died instead of morm. The question is, did the wolves plan this early to sacrifice Rune?

Day Four

#303: Notes the cross-posting of Kath's vote for morm, Gurthang's vote for Holby, and Fin's vote for Rune, which means that each voter thought they were casting the deciding vote in the three-way tie. Agrees with Firefoot that we don't have to worry too much about the Lovers. Still thinks morm was onto something about Jenny's list (I guess this implies she thinks Gurthang or Firefoot is guilty).

#304: Points out to Firefoot that wolves sometimes do skip out on voting. (However, Firefoot later points out that Lal's example is from the early days of WW.)

#325: Follows morm's instructions to look at the voting records from Jenny's list. Says Firefoot's lack of consistency in voting times strikes her as innocent. Nervous about Gurthang because he always votes just before the deadline and has cast two throw-away votes, plus one (as far as he knew decisive) vote for Holby. Notes that Rune always votes early - RL constraints or playing it safe? Points out that tgwbs votes in the "seemingly casual middle period" but each time his vote has put someone in the lead.

#330: Points out that any of the three known not-wolves could still be the lover.

#334: Reminds Durelin that Holby was outed as the Seer before she died.

#353: Torn between voting Rune and Gurthang.

#354: Votes Gurthang, but I doubt it's an attempt to save Rune. She almost got him lynched the Day before, and I still think his death was planned, so she wouldn't be trying to save him if she were a wolf.

Day Five

#371: Thinksj Guy is innocent. Suspicious of people who've made "mistakes" that make them look innocent (points out Durelin and Glirdan). Suspicious of Gurthang for weird reasoning about not voting to save himself over SpM. "This just smacks of a wolf trying to look like a good guy."

----------------------------

My overall impression of Lalaith is that she's innocent. A very tenuous theory might be that the wolves meant to sacrifice Rune the Day she voted for him, but failed to actually pull it off, and then decided to make her look really good by sacrificing him the next Day without her voting for him. Or maybe they didn't mean to sacrifice him, and the Day she voted for him, she didn't think anyone else would vote for him. But I kind of feel like I'm grasping at straws here.

I don't have the energy to analyze Firefoot (or Durelin, I guess I should analyze her too) right now. I'm getting tempted to forsake my gender-ratio plan and lynch Gurthang, because I found my suspicion of him increasing as I re-read the posts. In any case, I'll be back in some number of hours.

[Anguirel]

(This is the only post I'll be able to make today, and it'll be fairly short. I am marooned in London a day longer than I expected and have had to distract my father on a trip to get light-fitting and then hijack his laptop to get this far at all...)

Rune's death and guilt has the unhealthy effect of strengthening and confirming the suspicions (and prejudices, I suspect) I held yesterday. Being right is intellectually far more damaging than being wrong.

That said, I had a theory yesterday that Durelin might have performed a wolf for wolf vote. This now seems possible; yet how to explain her confusion over the Seer? That's sort of a cunning plan too far; it looks really genuine.

The other candidate for lynching last night was Sauce. It is not to my mind completely impossible that we had two wolves up for lynching last night; especially with the climate of dissension among the lupine ranks. Gurthang's role as executioner becomes prominent here. Did he suspect Rune of lovelorn treachery and so seal his fate? Is Sauce a lover-wolf who has just narrowly survived the velvet dagger of his erstwhile friends?

Caran makes a forceful case for Kath's innocence, but I still feel to some extent that her attitude is at odds with her frequently dodgy actions. Still, she has fallen on my suspicions list.

Finally...we should note that Diamond apparently attacked Sauce with honest intentions.

Hmmm.

Sauce – 4 (Diamond 1, Rune 9, Glirdan 10, Taliesin 12)
Rune – 5 (Ang 2, Durelin 4, Sauce 5, Firefoot 11, Gurthang 13, Findeasea 14)
Lalaith – 1 (Caran 3)
Glirdan – 1 (Kath 6)
Gurthang – 2 (TGWBS 7, Lalaith 8)

Very quickly-Glirdan is the only unknown who attacked Sauce-so I am now for the first time harbouring suspicions of him.

Firefoot-I forgot to consider her just now. Could be an alternative to Gurth as executioner. Sauce also.

Kath sits on the fence far too often. Maybe genuine indecision...

Gurthang votes-genuine minority suspicions or Love-derived knowledge from Engels or Lalaith?

I am going to vote because I don't believe in not doing so, but I fear this may be a shot in the dark.

++FIREFOOT

Don't know what I'd do without her vote summaries but she has gone too long unconsidered.

This is one of those rare, grim occasions when I don't have time for poetry.

[Firefoot]

Sauce on Durelin:

Day 1 -

Durelin -- Shifty ninja-type. Can't understand a word she says. Lynch her, I say!

She's fourth on his lynch list.

Day 2 -

I am also wary of Diamond, Durelin and morm.

This after going into fair detail about Nilp voters... never once mentioning her. This could explain his repeated suspicions that either Holby or I was a wolf - let's just draw attention to these other Nilp voters...

Day 3 -

Durelin: Has acted completely how I would expect her to act (with the exception of a vote for me ; ) ). Can’t see anything suspicious about her.

Inclined to trust (for now): Glirdan, Durelin, Rune, mormegil, TGWBS, Findesea

Day 4 -

Durelin: I am pretty sure that she is innocent, of Wolvishness at least. She has been behaving erratically, which is precisely how I would expect an innocent Durelin to behave. I don’t think that her “eccentricity” would come across as quite so genuine if she were a Wolf trying to follow her usual pattern of behaviour.

Day 5 -

The other Rune voters who remain unknowns were Anguirel, Durelin, Firefoot and Gurthang.

But it's mine and Gurthang's that are most suspicious...

Durelin had been suspecting Rune from Day 3 (and voted for him on Day 3 too). So, unless there was a long term plan to sacrifice him (ie going back further than Night 4), she was being consistent. I also remain generally comfortable about Durelin for other the other reasons I have previously mentioned, so I am not too concerned about her vote.

Sauce:
The other two Holby-voters, Durelin and myself remain unknowns. It is, however, a well known fact that Wolves spread their votes, so it follows that the two of us are innocent. OK, perhaps not, but it does reinforce my warm, fuzzy feeling for Durelin (although I should perhaps make clear that love is not involved ).

Durelin:
Awww...and you had my hopes up...

!!!

Tend to think innocent: Lalaith, TGWBS and Durelin
...
Innocent Lover: Lalaith? Durelin? Taliesin?

I think that may have strengthened the case rather than broken it down. Sauce starts with suspicion on her, which slowly weakens until she is "probably innocent", and has even gone so far as joking with her about being the Lover.

I'll be away for a while now, but back in plenty of time to do more discussing...