Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXIII: Journey to Hy Brazil

[The Saucepan Man]

I have been pondering further the Wolves’ choice of victim last Night. Although I do not discount the possibility of grudges playing a role, given how absurdly prominent this concept has been so far aboard this vessel, I rather agree with Lalaith that the Wolves are unlikely to be motivated by grudges alone. I also agree with Lalaith that, while an innocent Eomer presented a formidable foe to the Wolves, there are others who they might also consider dangerous and who were distinctly less likely to attract votes today.

Did the Wolves think Eomer likely to be a Gifted? Possibly, but I can see little in what he said to give them such an impression. His suspicions (primarily Glirdan and Caran) were not strongly stated and there was, as Ang has noted, no particular link with Nilp.

So, I am led to the belief that Eomer was killed to create a certain amount of confusion and perhaps to lead us in the wrong direction. If so, I am inclined to think that those he viewed as suspicious are in fact more likely than not innocent. I am also reinforced in my tentative view that there may not have been a Wolf among the Eomer voters. Even if there is a Wolf there, it’s likely only one at most. In this regard, I would view Lhuna and Diamond as the most likely candidates, given that Eomer said that he was inclined towards thinking them innocent. Of the two, Diamond currently looks the more suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Rear Admiral, based on votes I don't see how Anguirel by appearing to have been trying to save Eomer does not gain your suspicions, but I who broke the tye in Eomer's favor looks suspicious.

I understand your reasoning based on my trying to be helpful and that I can't help. I was trying to gleen any sort "solid" theroies to work and everyone knows how hard that is on first day. Hindsight, I shouldn't have tried so hard.

Assuming him innocent (and I remain inclined to that view), I fully understood what Anguirel was trying to achieve when he voted for Nilp in an effort to save Eomer. Not knowing Nilp’s Giftedness, I rather agreed that an innocent Eomer was likely to prove more helpful to us than an innocent Nilp. That’s not to clear Ang completely, but, in my view, his vote does not count against him as much as others in the Nilp bandwaggon. Your vote, for example, which had the effect of escalating further the two-horse race developing between Eomer and Nilp, a race which served only the Wolves’ interests, without the redeeming factor of credible reasoning.

And rather than being helpful and productive, my impression was that you were attempting to involve yourself in the discussion without saying anything too controversial. Notably, your analyses followed my categorisation of you as a possible “fly under the radar” Wolf, and, despite looking helpful on the face of it, they didn't appear really to say that much. My impression of you has not changed.

The other Nilp voter that I find particularly suspicious is Firefoot. Like Holby, she too encouraged the Eomer/Nilp two-horse race, by putting Nilp on 4 votes, level with Eomer. Her reasoning for voting for Nilp was lazy. Just the kind of reasoning that a Wolf would use on Day 1 against an easy lynch target. And she has said and done little to aid the passengers’ cause since.

In other news, Gurthang continues to trouble me. This Corinthians reference, for example. I could understand it if he had explained it by saying that it was merely part of the “banter”. But he actually tried to explain it by categorising it as some kind of device to catch people out. To achieve what, exactly? Were you hoping that one of the Lovers might come forward and refute your apparent claim? You say that you were looking for reactions, but it was bound to attract some sort of reaction, and most likely the kind of reaction that most of us who discussed it gave. So I really don’t see what it was designed to achieve. Then there is the early encouragement of the developing Eomer bandwagon. Despite your subsequent (unconvincing) attempts to explain your logic here, it remains weak. Yes, a Wolvish Eomer is dangerous. But an innocent Eomer could have been extremely helpful to us. His intelligence is no reason to eliminate him early. Au contraire, it is a reason to keep him around, at least until there is some kind of evidence pointing to his possible Wolfishness. There was none. And then, despite your early encouragement of the Eomer bandwagon, you end up placing your vote for Diamond. By this time, Nilp was all but condemned, so it was a great time for a Wolf to place a “safe” vote, perhaps even a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Turning to Glirdan’s analyses, I have known him to indulge in these in the past. Personally, I don’t find analyses such as this particularly helpful, and they can be used by Wolves to appear helpful while saying little of use. And I find some of Glirdan’s analysis rather wide of the mark. His case against Taliesin, for example, I find entirely unconvincing, since there was ample reason for Taliesin credibly to change his mind and decide to vote for Eomer after all, given what had occurred in the intervening period (more teling, perhaps, is the fact that Taliesin's vote had no effect on the outcome, and so might be regarded as a safe Wolfish vote). He is concerned over TGWBS’ expressed desire that Men and Wolves should live in harmony, yet this was clearly part of the “in character” banter. And he finds Diamond’s early case against Eomer consistent and well-reasoned, despite the fact that it was based purely on past history and Eomer had not even posted at that point. Yet I don’t think it likely that Glirdan is guilty. Guileless, perhaps, but not guilty. I think it unlikely that a Wolfish Glirdan would have subscribed to the murder of Eomer, given that Eomer had voted for him.

Finally, to Morm’s case against Anguirel. It has merit, I will admit, but it is purely circumstantial. It is entirely possible that Ang’s comments that morm catgorises as malign were merely the speculations of an innocent on Day 1, with little available in the way of evidence. So, while the case should not be dismissed out of hand, I am concerned that morm saw fit to base such an early vote on it. And I am also concerned over the certainty with which he is expressing his views. That said, he is too “in yer face” surely, even for morm, to be a Wolf.

In conclusion, my main suspicions currently lie with Gurthang, Holbytlass and Firefoot, although I think it unlikely that both Holby and Firefoot are Wolves.

I am also wary of Diamond, Durelin and morm.

Apologies, as always, for the length of this post, but it’s probably the last chance I will get to post until much later in the Day.