WWJ IX: Psychotic Penguins: The Crossing of Helcaraxë

[Macalaure]

Sorry to bore Diamond even more, but


Pros and Cons of Phantom's plan (as I understand it):


pro: The seer will have a good chance to hide from the wolves.

Originally Posted by Boromir

A talented and gifted Seer can effectively stay hidden without having to do this.

Yes, but

pro: If the seer is killed by the wolves nevertheless we always have his list, whatever happens.


con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

con: If everybody has his own "If I was the seer, then"-list, then the wolves can cancel out everybody who has a wrong guess on his list as a possible seer. No good. So the real seer has to mix at least one wrong dream into his list.

con: This plan is likely to handicap and confuse us in the "theories"-section.

I'm not sure what you're getting at with your cons, Macalaure. At this point the seer has had one dream, any other hints he/she drops will be mere guesses on his/her part. I'm pretty God awful at math, but the chances of a non-gifted innocent villager getting another innocent right in their phony predictions is pretty good, and the WP know who is innocent and guilty so it'll be harder for them to cancel out whose really gifted and who's trying to confuse them. The seer wouldn't have to mix in a wrong dream.
But this is the last I'm going to say on the seer plan because there are more important things to focus on as the day draws on.

[Firefoot]

On Diamond:

In Naria's analysis post, Diamond is the only one that Naria really comes out and says looks innocent to her. Even Valier is basically, "I don't know, but she can be useful." Diamond "is sending up no red flags." Everyone else was somewhere between "I don't know" and "rather suspicious." This definitely caught my eye. I don't know how Naria would normally act, but I think that little idiosyncracies like this would be telling.

In Boro's first anaylsis post, he hardly mentions Diamond at all and says nothing about whether he's supsicious of her. In his much-cited post, she does appear in the same group as Naria, but I wouldn't put it past Boro to do this, I suppose... he might have figured on us guessing he would put wolves in different groups.

Diamond herself has been extremely contributive, but not very controversial in her posts. She tends to have been very fair and even-headed, even light-hearted at times. I have taken this for innocence, but now I'm starting to have doubts. She has posted enough suspicions not to be accused of neutrality, but she tends not to latch on to people, either (I'm not sure that this is really suspicious or not... I suppose that's how I normally play...). But if she were a penguin, it would explain somewhat why she has been so attached to the idea that penguins would come from different lists of Boro's.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Hysterical Valier

but may I plead that you kill Ang today and me tomorrow. Just please give me the benefit of the doubt.

Why does it matter? If you're sure of his guilt then why does it matter who we kill first?

If you want us to consider killing Ang first, you need to turn down the volume a bit and do a comprehensive Roa-analysis-style attack post on Boro and Naria's connection to Ang, as well as Ang's votes and words since the beginning of the village.

[the phantom]

I find Diamond's posts 384 & 387 interesting.

She is basically trying to set up two deaths in a row. You could sum her up by saying- "Today, lynch Ang. If that's wrong, then Val is obviously guilty."

How convenient.

The voting stands-
Ang for Di
Di for Ang

I'm considering tacking my vote onto Di.

[Diamond18]

Sorry if I clutter the thread, I just didn't get chances to make these replies being gone:

Firefoot... how did you go from having me as your Ranger pick to voting for me? I don't understand. *scratches head* At any rate, I'm glad you turned out innocent because... well... that means I was right about you.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I find Diamond's posts 384 & 387 interesting.

She is basically trying to set up two deaths in a row. You could sum her up by saying- "Today, lynch Ang. If that's wrong, then Val is obviously guilty."

How convenient.

How very.

I trust the scary accuracy of Valier's instincts, so it seemed pretty clear to me that if she was "wrong" she was evil. But once I actually looked at Ang close enough he felt so wrong that I really started to believe in Valier's innocence. Having her so sure kind of helped me to believe in my own doubts about him, despite it not fitting in nicely with one of my pet theories. That, and Ang calling that theory a "distraction" which screamed so loudly, "I know you're wrong Diamond," that I considered it a fairly wolifsh slip.

Originally Posted by Enca

Diamond may get my vote now just because it's what Val does not want.

Gee, thanks. So, did you ever think I was actually guilty?

[Diamond18]

So Firefoot was the Hunter, eh? I thought even before Mac's death that phantom might be bluffing, because it seemed awfully conveinent for him to be both a proven innocent and the Hunter. And if anyone is going to be cheeky enough to fake being a Gifted, it's tp. I actually started typing out this suspicion a couple times but then I backspaced because I thought, "Really, that kind of speculation can only help the penguins." I'm not sure I could have kept silent if I was in Firefoot's position, so kudos to you for that, O ineFfeble one.

Originally Posted by tp

Of course I did. You didn't think I'd try and save you, m'dear?

The possibility of you not saving me did cross my mind.

Well, actually, the fact that when I came on here I saw that Roa was that last to post at around 6 PM (one hour after deadline) pretty much spoilt the suspense for me. I knew I wasn't going to die because the game couldn't be over if I had died. But that didn't stop me from yelling, "Stop giving Valier a hard time and vote ANG already!" at my monitor while I caught up on the posts.

[JennyHallu]

I thought Roa was the third penguin...despite her masterfully innocent innocentness. But in my defense, this is why:

Oh, if only you had had more time, youwould have been terribly troublesome! At least you took the place of a penguin. Interesting hint, by the way.... ~Roa

For some reason I decided this rep was a subtle hint that she was the penguin.

And lynching me that day was not fair!!

:P

[Valier]

I like to leave the Roa-style analysis to Roa. I see no reason to restate everything that has been said about Boromir, Naria, or Ang. villagers have already done a great job on that and I don't see how me doing the same will help. I have stated before and in case you didn't know I DO NOT DO ANALYSIS when I do try, they make no sense and they get pooh-poohed for being wild or lacking and sure if you want to kill me today just so you can see go ahead, but as my dieing wish I say you then take out Ang tomorrow. The only reason I ask for him to go before me is that I really want to make it to the end of a game. I have never accomplished this feat yet.

[the phantom]

I like to leave the Roa-style analysis to Roa.

What an insane idea. As if Roa could do a Roa-style post.

when I do try, they make no sense and they get pooh-poohed

I know, I know. That's why I want you to do it. I've really been wanting to pooh-pooh someone all day today.

The only reason I ask for him to go before me is that I really want to make it to the end of a game. I have never accomplished this feat yet.

Aww...

Tell you what. If you really want to survive and win a game then I'll arrange for you to be a Wolf with me sometime. Does that work for you?

[the phantom]

Less than 2 & 1/2 hours till the deadline.

What are people thinking?

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've been doing some thinking, and I don't think I want to lynch Valier today (gasp). I'll be convinced that she's guilty and then she says something that completely throws me off.

The case against Anguirel is not strong enough for me to vote for him, and I'm not convincing myself, even after going back over some of his posts.

Spawn I'm sort of 50-50 about. She could be a wolf... but she's definitely not my top suspect.

Roa, I think is probably innocent.

There doesn't seem to be much of a case against Encai - certainly not enough to vote off of.

That leaves Diamond, and I've been thinking about her for a while now... she's my pick. I may or may not be back on before the deadline; if I am it would be extremely close. It's likely that I won't be.

++Diamond

[Valier]

I am thinking why is it so hard for a few of you to believe that Anguirel is possibly the Emperor?

Originally Posted by TP

I know, I know. That's why I want you to do it. I've really been wanting to pooh-pooh someone all day today.

That's uncalled for! you want me to sit here and go through everything just so you can pooh all over it? Right....

Originally Posted by TP

Tell you what. If you really want to survive and win a game then I'll arrange for you to be a Wolf with me sometime. Does that work for you?

No it does not work for me!! I would rather win the game as an innocent then a foul fowl any day! By the way Phantom try not to be such a jerk. I know what I am doing is not exactly helpful, but I see no other way to get people to listen to me. I don't see how you can all of a sudden support Ang's little Diamond crusade....that is what he wants!!!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

As to Di, I'm more worried about her post #387:

"If Ang, Spawn, and Valier all died innocent, would it be too late to start worrying about Roa?" ~Di

Looks like she has basically decided her three, almost four, lynching candidates beforehand which is not very wise in a village like this since most or all people on her list are bound to be innocent.

I haven't really suspected Di because I think she has behaved quite normally, but I have a while now, so I can as well dig up some quotes.

"Anyway, like Valier [Diamond] seems to eccentric to be a wp. But this I do find odd: (quotes Di's Seer plan in her post #12 and explains why he thinks it isn't a good idea)" ~Boro #33

"And Diamond has just confused me so far. The cobbler business seemed awkward to me, I'm glad she came out and explained it more, but she's not done anything to make me feel like she's innocent like the "innocent looking" group." ~Boro #46

"Diamond- She seems to be acting per usual. Nothing to send up red flags yet." ~Naria #298

I don't find those quotes very telling. I think Boro's quotes look more like he would be seriously making a foundation for a possible future case against Diamond, but who knows. Considering that in Naria's post #298 she more or less suspected everyone, I wonder if she would have classified only her penguin colleague innocent.


I'll vote as soon as I have made my mind.

[Encaitare]

Sorry for having to leave so abruptly before; I totally forgot I had to go to the orthodontist and had to get dressed and run out the door.

An idea I had whilst having metal tools poked about in my mouth: I believe that Ang is not a WP because he kept going with his suspicion of Diamond all along. A lone WP would probably try to avoid attention and go along with the general consensus of guilt, which until a while ago was Valier. It could be that he was making a very risky move and hoping to draw everyone to his side (which seems to have happened in some cases, with all these votes for Diamond), but again, that is a big risk and not guaranteed to save him. Plus, if Di really is innocent, it'll look terrible for him -- a chance I don't think a WP would take.

Current Voting

Diamond: 2 (Anguirel 1, Firefoot 3)
Anguirel: 1 (Diamond 2)

Originally Posted by tp

Tell you what. If you really want to survive and win a game then I'll arrange for you to be a Wolf with me sometime. Does that work for you?

EDIT: Cross posted with Val.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

I know, I know. That's why I want you to do it. I've really been wanting to pooh-pooh someone all day today.

Originally Posted by Val

That's uncalled for!

Oh, good grief.

Please tell me that you are able to recognize statements made in jest.

Originally Posted by Val

By the way Phantom try not to be such a jerk.

Obviously, you can't tell when I'm joking.

Come on now Val. My statements are so silly/absurd/out-of-place that they couldn't possibly be serious.

Your uber-reactions are putting you on thin ice with me, Val.

Originally Posted by Valier

I don't see how you can all of a sudden support Ang's little Diamond crusade....that is what he wants!!!

That's all you want too, isn't it.

Current voting.

Ang for Di
Di for Ang
FF for Di
Val for Val