Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the guy who be short · 06-07-2006, 04:32 AM

If we lynch Lommy and she's the Seer, we know our two wolves and lynch them the days after.

If we lynch Lommy and she's a wolf, Nogrod can dream of somebody - Lhuna perhaps - in the night and be protected by the Ranger. This gets us one more dream.

If we lynch Nogrod and he's a wolf, we can trust Lommy. We have two wolves. We win.

If we lynch Nogrod and he's the Seer, we vote Lommy tomorrow. We have one wolf.

Therefore, logically, it is in our interests to lynch Lommy for better outcomes. Lynching Lommy will gain us either the names of our two wolves, or else one wolf and a dream. Lynching Nogrod will only get us either our two wolves, or just one wolf without a dream.

Just to throw some maths in.

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06-07-2006, 04:32 AM	#11
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	If we lynch Lommy and she's the Seer, we know our two wolves and lynch them the days after. If we lynch Lommy and she's a wolf, Nogrod can dream of somebody - Lhuna perhaps - in the night and be protected by the Ranger. This gets us one more dream. If we lynch Nogrod and he's a wolf, we can trust Lommy. We have two wolves. We win. If we lynch Nogrod and he's the Seer, we vote Lommy tomorrow. We have one wolf. Therefore, logically, it is in our interests to lynch Lommy for better outcomes. Lynching Lommy will gain us either the names of our two wolves, or else one wolf and a dream. Lynching Nogrod will only get us either our two wolves, or just one wolf without a dream. Just to throw some maths in.