Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by morm

In her vote for me it seemed mighty strange that in her previous post she implies that I'm innocent, next post which is really close to each other, changes her mind and votes for me with a back door ready for escape and says that she's not sure if she'll be back and yet she's able to post 4 more times. She does a remarkable job at picking the flavor of the day. Boro, SpM and Spawn voiced high suspicion of her and are all dead either by lynching or wolf death.

This is a valid argument. But the post before she voted for you, she didn't seem to be saying she really thought you were innocent. So it doesn't seem contradictory to me. Still, like I said, you have some points there. Besides which, jokes aside, the very fact that I don't have a negative feeling about her might indicate some extra carefulness on her part. So I'm certainly not letting her off the hook. And going back over your points against her, it is true that she has made some subtle twists of words. But she isn't one of my top suspects toDay. That could change, though... we'll have to see her behavior.

After sitting through two analyses, I'll revert for a bit to my random musings:

Mith has come up as a suspect, and I have some suspicions of her, too (Really, who don't I have some suspicions of?). I of all people won't ignore RL issues, so I want to give her a fair chance. But I'll be taking a closer look.

morm I suspected in a former life, but didn't follow through on my suspicions, and he turned out to be a wolf. So I'm tempted to follow my gut this time. But the truth is, it's impossible to tell with him. Well, not impossible for some people (ahem, one person)...

Fea I keep going back and forth on. One minute she's a cunning wolf, the next she's a cryptic innocent. I just can't read her.

lmp I'm still inclined to trust. For now...

Nogrod I want to trust also. I've been satisfied with him so far... seems like normal.

Now with my luck, lmp and Nogrod will both be wolves.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by lmp

If so, we have a known innocent that the werewolves must kill with loss to their ranks.

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if you're saying that when I die, a wolf will die, that's not the case. Whomever I choose to hunt will die, whether they are an innocent, a gifted, or a wolf.

[Caranlondien]

I have to go to sleep, and I'll check back in when I get up in 8 or 9 hours. For now, here's how I'm feeling about the village:

Not a Likely Werewolf
Celuien
Nogrod
lmp
Fin

Need to be watched, but not on my suspect list toDay...yet
Lhuna
TGWBS
Durelin
Lommy
Tom

Suspicious of
Fea
Cailín
Mith
morm

Note that I haven't gone over Tom very closely at all. Lhuna is very nearly on my suspicions list. And Fin and lmp I'm not quite so sure about the innocence of. And (though I doubt anyone would do this anyway) by no means should this be taken as seriously as a certain former wizard's "List of Doom"; I know no more than anyone, and can only be seen as an objective opinion.

[mormegil]

Well this will be an incomplete analysis as I left many of my notes at work but I will do what I can currently. I have some points that have aroused my suspicion about Lommy and will outline some of them here.

Post 71 piqued my interest and aroused my suspicion substantially. It was one of those where I feel like she is intentionally twisting what is being said. She doesn't seem to want to understand what is being said by SpM.

Post 76 here again she seems to twist what SpM said and uses it against him. What SpM said was very benign and yet she seems to go over the handle a bit. SpM addressed this a in post 80. SpM stated fairly well how I feel about this post and we know SpM is innocent and can therefore be trusted in his intent, not necissarily his assesment but we know he didn't have any ulterior motives.

Post 90 gives a weak reason for voting for Boromir and gives herself an out. Just like she did with me in post 155. While I gave the link I will quote one thing too.

I'm a bit wary of him plus I'm no admirer of his current playing style.

If I will be back, as I probably will, I will take another look at the village and find some real suspects.
If not this is it for toDay.

She wanting to kill me because of my playing style and gives herself an out too. She says if she comes back she will look for some real suspects yet when she comes back I don't see her do that. She admits I'm not a real suspect but I appear to be an easy target so she goes for me. If I was lynched nobody would think it horribly suspicious to vote for me that early on. Voting somebody on 'playing style' in not very acceptable to me in that we all have our own and valid styles. If I am suspicious and you can find a reason, fine vote for me but not for this petty dribble.

Post 93 Boromir gives a good arguement for her and I like his insight of 'fence riding'. My thought is that she takes 'the path of least resistance' which is a great way for a wolf to blend in. She's vocal and forward yet doesn't every stick her neck out too much. She's calculating in her attacks. I don't trust her at all.

[Findëasëa]

Although there have been a lot of comments about LMP, I do not think there has been an analysis. (I apologize for the length)
Day One:
#17- Just mentioned that he was there and reading
#18- Gives random suspicions of people and comments that nothing noteworthy has been said yet.
#37- Votes for Form, saying “I just don't trust him. Lupine. Wolvish. Sneak.” No further explanation provided.
Day One: LMP did not contribute any ideas on day one. It may have been a busy day for him, but the lack of substance in his posts was obvious. Nothing at all that was potentially damaging was said, but also nothing was said that could make him look better. Overall, this day was a ‘safe’, but noticeable day for LMP.

#132- Comments about various people.
1) He thinks that Spawn may be a werewolf, as he finds the theories on this presented by TGWBS and SPM are worthy of consideration.
2) He does not think the possibility of Lommy’s guilt is worth consideration yet, as he finds the behavior others classify as ‘suspicious’ consistent with how she usually acts.
3) He refers to a post by SPM for reasoning as to why he finds Caran suspicious.
4) He thinks that Durelin should still be considered, as she might be a reckless wolf.
5) He then says that we should keep an eye on SPM, as although he may sound innocent, he may be guilty.
6) He refers back to a post by Celuien (129), saying that she has made points that have him ‘taking notice.’ (This post is an analysis of Caran’s actions). He then votes for Caran.

#137(In response to a post by Fin about how the wolves probably are trying to fly under the radar and are not taking risks.)
1) He notes that he sees Fin’s point and then lists all of the players with their posting frequency from the person with the most, to the one with the least. He does not claim that the number of votes is particularly telling, only that it might point towards who is trying to fly under the radar.
2) He thinks that since Nogrod, Durelin, and Caran are probably innocent as they have drawn undue attention to themselves.
3) He defends the change of his vote, saying that it was spurred by new ideas brought to light.
4) He is still suspicious of Spawn. He cites points brought up by SPM and TGWBS. He hunches from these comments that at least one of the wolves voted for Boro.
5) He changes his vote to Spawn.

#147- Comments that he, possibly along with Morm, is suffering ‘werewolf weariness.’ He explains, saying that he is still interested in the game, but just that the thought process is taking a while to catch up. He then comments that differences in playing style are probably due to retractable votes. He says that it ‘puts a little pressure on those suspected’
#163- He thinks that Spawn overreacted to his retractable vote, and thinks this is even more suspicious.

#213
1) LMP quotes Lommy. (Lommy earlier commented that she is getting more and more worried about LMP’s behavior, which she thinks is ‘a lot more nonsense than usual’.) LMP responds, saying the comment is very vague, and asks for clarification.
2) He then inserts a quote from SPM, which he found a very bold statement. He cites earlier experiences, and argues that SPM is a wolf because of the fact that his actions are consistent with those a wolf SPM would take.
3) He responds to a statement made by SPM about Spawn’s reaction to LMP’s vote for her. (In 163 LMP said that he thought Spawn overreacted, SPM counters, saying that he thought it was a reasonable response, as he felt that LMP did not give enough reasoning for the vote for Spawn.) LMP defends his vote, saying that he did give reasons.
4) He then quotes some Tom’s comments regarding Morm’s playing style. LMP defends the actions of Morm in question by explaining that they are typical of Morm, and that he was trying to find wolves. He says that it would be a waste for someone (in this case Tom) to waste a lynch vote because they were not aware of what was going on.
5) He goes on to put in a quote from Fea “I'm very intentionally playing the role of a quiet villager. Or at least trying to do so. Let me do it in peace and I might be able to help you.” LMP notes that “This seems for real to me.” I interpreted this to mean that he thought that Fea a genuine innocent. He sees SPM’s response to this comment as aggressive. He finds that this is further evidence that SPM is guilty. He believes that a wolfish SPM is the kind to “pick a few likely villagers who he is rather sure he can turn into scapegoats, and ride them for all they're worth, making sure not to allow them to get lynched and proven innocent until it's well along in the game and they have served their purpose.”
6) He changes his vote from Spawn to SPM (At this time there were no votes for SPM).

#219-He quotes Mith, (Mith- This strategy makes you so vulnerable if it backfires that I will chance trusting you). He comments that he hopes her trust of his plan is not in vain for both of their sakes.

Day 2 Analysis:
There is a huge difference in the nature of the posts from day one to day two. He is extremely more verbose. Due to the volume of comments that LMP made, I will also separate my comments based on posts.

(#132) What I find unsettling about his first batch of comments about people is the fact that he refers back directly to other people’s theories three times without giving his own interpretation. This seems like a way for him to diminish accountability and to test the water to see if anyone will bite. He does give some ideas of his own, but they are broad. By the end of the day, he votes for all of the people he mentions in this list as suspicious (Caran, Spawn, and SPM). On the one hand, this looks bad, he could have set up these so as to justify votes later, and make them not look like they appeared at random. On the other hand, two of these people are proven innocent now, and the other is quite probably innocent. Would the wolves draw attention to one of their number in this way?

(#137)LMP’s next post was the one in which he changed his vote to Spawn. For the second time, he cites directly points brought up by other people. This might just be his style, but it worries me. The fact that the votes are retractable should bear on this issue though, so I am not sure how heavily it should weigh when considering guilt.

(#147)- His explanations regarding both state of mind and playing style seem odd to me, but I think that he has a valid point about the retractable voting changing people’s style.

(#213) I am really not sure about how to interpret this post. It did aid in the downfall of SPM, but would not have been sucessful if Caran had not revealed he would not have died. He loudly declares his belief that SPM is guilty. He bases his arguments in experience at first. His arguments seem valid. The only thing that seems strange to me is the sureness that he puts this statement forth. I am not sure that this would be a wolfish approach, as he stood up to take on at full strength the accountability of this accusation. This is at odds with his earlier approach, which seemed to lessen accountability. It would be quite a bold move to make.
A lot of his earlier posts seemed quite suspicious to me, but something about the manner that he approached his argument against SPM appears innocent to me. I am still suspicious of him, but much less so than before. I will wait to hear more from him today.

[Cailín]

I see I finally gathered some suspicion for being in the right place at the right time. I am extremely sorry innocent Saucy got lynched, but I was suspicious of him yesterDay and when it was a choice between known innocent Caran (for I believed her instantly) and unknown Saucy, it wasn’t hard to make. I didn’t have time to jump in and make everyone switch votes, so I did what I had to do.

Indeed, Morm, you are a skeptic. I'm just genuinely heroic.

I am currently suspicious of the following people:

LMP
Tom
Mith
Fin
Durelin

in no particular order. I am rather unsuspicious of Mormegil, Nogrod, Caran and TGWBS due to events yesterDay. The rest are floating sort of in between and could go either way toDay.

Now I wish to reread & analyse Spawn’s posts. She was definitely under some suspicion yesterDay. She must have gotten something right to be a wolf target at this point.

[Cailín]

Well, Dancing Spawn’s posts reveal little enough. Her main suspects were Mith and TGWBS, and if the wolves thought her to be a Seer, I think it would primarily look bad for the former.

Who have we got left?

Lhuna - traveller with absolutely no sense of direction
Cailín - tragedienne
Fea - confectionist
Celuien - ketchup grower
TGWBS - Pokémaster
Lommy - AA-adviser
Nogrod - owner of ME's first hamburger restaurant
lmp - gravedigger
Tom - tree surgeon
Caran - town poet
Findëasëa (from now called Fin) - alpaca herder
Mith - aura consultant
morm - butcher
Durelin – ninja

Among these people are four gifteds still (if you include the Changeling) and three wolves. Basically, if we would lynch a random person, chances would be higher it’s a Gifted than a wolf currently. We must avoid this. Here is me thinking aloud or
a remarkable and unique insight into the brains of world famous tragedienne Cailín:

# 1
Lhuna is one of the wolves

Not completely impossible. Lhuna is behaving much more level-headed than usual. She gave us a lot of tentative suspicions yesterDay, also shifting focus back to Fea. Now if Lhuna is a wolf, she is rather safe from the lynching mob. We usually cut her some slack due to her terrible timezone disease. As long as she does nothing terribly horrendous, we let it slide. Well, she has done nothing terrible: her votes and suspicions are still on the safe side. She believed in the innocence of Caran and Spawn from the start… if Lhuna is a wolf, she’s playing her cards right. Because of previous experiences with her, I don’t think she is (this is meant more nicely than it seems, really!).

# 2

Durelin and Tom are wolves.

Durelin starts the first Day by voting randomly for Saucepan Man. As something told me this was traditional and as more people had cast random votes before that, I found the amount of attention this vote got rather baffling. Then she changes her vote to Tom, at a point where it is unlikely he will get any more votes. Now that seems like a safe wolf on wolf vote.
Tom only posted once that Day, voting for Boromir with some reasoning. Not decidedly wolvish, but not un-wolvish either.

The Day after, Durelin immediately gets the possible bold wolf stamp. Still, rather surprising, as her random vote for SpM did not seem so bold to me. I think –personally- she had not anticipated the strong reactions to her randomness.

There was no need for the Wolves to take any risks yesterday.

Saucy’s words. They may be true, but I don’t know. Anyway, Durelin proceeds to express some mild suspicion of Saucy (actually more of a theory concerning Saucy looking good after the one he defended turned out innocent). She then in a rather long post votes for Saucy, expecting not to join a bandwagon, but unknowingly she did. Reading back I’m starting to find Durelin less suspicious, but she is not off my suspect list yet. That’s twice she meant to cast a safe vote. She changed her style from random and quirky to reasonable and helpful in one day. She also came across as quite insecure all the time. This may be the sign of an innocent poking left and right, it could also be the sign of a wolf not sure what to do with herself.

Now Tom posts quite a lot Day 2, including some reasons to kill Formendacil (an innocent helping out or a wolf revealing as much as he can without revealing too much? Sometimes the best strategy for a wolf is to be as honest as possible). At first, he expresses no to little suspicion of Caran. Then he admits to being slightly swayed by the amount of suspicion she’s getting, especially because of Morm’s analysis. But then, he is also suspicious of morm himself, with the style change theory and all.

He then provides us with a long analysis of Saucy’s behaviour. This clears SpM for him, though he reminds us to keep watchful if Saucy is indeed trying to take control.

He continues with more suspicion of Mormegil. Then he abandons that theory again, trusting Saucy’s judgment, and will probably be voting for Caran or Spawn.

Only he does not. He votes for Mormegil as the quiet wolf. Well, this seems to me an extremely flip floppy Day and even though he first states we need be mindful to not let Saucy take over, he is following him. It could be a great strategy for a wolf: get into the good books of someone as Saucy –knowing that he were innocent- without voting for the major lynching candidate Caranlondien, who is also innocent. Though he has been helpful, I will be keeping a close eye on him. This is mostly because I think Mormegil is innocent (he has fooled me before, mind you) so not sure whether it holds for the rest of you.

# 3

Littlemanpoet is a wolf.

And he could with right be called a bold one. Poor man is suffering from werewolf weariness (that some kind of disease that comes from being fanged for extended periods of time?). Anyway, the first Day his contributions can be mostly disregarded. He does vote for Formendacil, who is to be Night two’s kill, which may be interpreted as a double bluff. That’s not above or beneath Elempi, of course.

Day 2 he votes for Caranlondien and Spawn (both innocent) in rapid succession. Now Spawn did find this rather suspicious and I tend to agree. I also say it’s reckless. Post #163 he still stands firmly by his vote for Spawn, but then follows #213, giving birth to a rather astonishing bandwagon against SpM. Now I must say that –as is evident in my voting post for Caran yesterDay- I was starting to get the same concerns about SpM being possibly wolvish and Elempi’s post did strike me as well… not insensible.

If Elempi is wolvish, he is, as I said, extremely bold. Now considering werewolf weariness, this seems actually quite logical. If you are weary, tis quite fun to create a few risks for yourself, or try something new. On the other hand, I am just not sure whether Elempi would really be that flip floppy aggressive.

Also, if Elempi is a wolf, Mith is definitely not one. The other way around the same.

Final theory # 4

Mithalwen is a wolf.

Now I quite strongly get the feeling Mith may be a wolf, though Mormegil says to trust his judgement in that she is innocent.

Let’s see for ourselves, shall we?

Now Mith has real life issues going on, so it makes sense her contribution is a little lower and more erratic than expected. However, it’s not about quantity or quality really, it’s about what she does. Day One the only things worth mentioning seem: she defends SpM quite strongly, believing his voters to be quite suspicious. She votes semi-randomly for Fea, because she cannot read her.
Day 2 she comments more on Fea, mostly finding her innocent because of the decided lack of breath-taking stunts going on. (Now I don’t think Fea is being careful at all, but she’s currently not the topic of discussion).

Mith here points out that Sauce would be dead if she were a wolf. Knowing Mith, I may be inclined to believe this statement.

She finds Tom and Lommy slightly suspicious and Durelin and Caranlondien much more so. She votes for the latter. However, after Elempi’s post, she makes quite a remarkable U-turn and changes her vote to SpM, who previously was rather on the innocent end of her observations. What alarms me even more is that she claims that if LMP is wrong, it will backfire on him, not her. Hmm… Mith seems like herself in one way, but I am not about to underestimate her. I know she’s cleverer than she acts a great deal of the time. She’s not off the list.

--

I am running out of time…

Fea I am completely clueless about. Completely.

Celuien… hm… I don’t know. She’s quieter. In fact, I think she may be suffering from WW fatique as well.

Lommy seems rather innocent looking overall.

I do not trust Fin, but find her not the most suspicious either. I have not analysed her yet, though.

Well, I'll be back later. Don't kill anyone in my absence.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but if you're saying that when I die, a wolf will die, that's not the case. Whomever I choose to hunt will die, whether they are an innocent, a gifted, or a wolf.

Oh yeah. That's right. Well, in that case, we will probably lose you after this Night. A shame to lose our Hunter so quickly. Oh! There is this possibility, though, that a werewolf won't dare try to kill you on the off-chance that you pick one of them to hunt. So you may be around longer than one Night.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Also, if Elempi is a wolf, Mith is definitely not one. The other way around the same.

Why? This didn't quite follow from your reasoning, as far as I could tell; at least, not as a necessary, virtually mathematical correlation. Perhaps in terms of likelihoods, it's as possibly correct a conclusion as any. My problem with it is that I am inclined to trust Morm, and knowing my own innocence, I therefore tend to give Mith the benefit of the doubt; which makes what you say hard for me to accept.

Mith's two most recent posts are just too guileless for werewolvery. So it seems to me.

[Cailín]

Elempi, I am not saying that you could not both be innocents.

I'm thinking that, if you both are wolves, Mith would not have changed her vote so quickly.

I agree: Mith's latest posts have rather convinced me of her innocence (at least enough to give her the benefit of the doubt today). It does not automatically follow that you are a wolf though, and I never said that.

[Celuien]

Those last posts convince me as well. Removing Mith from my suspect list...

I have a lot of stuff to catch up on besides WW. So, bear with me a little longer today. I'm planning to take a closer look at TGWBS, who's been escaping my notice, and morm. Possibly one or two others as well.

[Thinlómien]

Well, I'm here.

Probably innocent
Nogrod
Celuien
Caranlondien - I believe her claim

Not very suspicious of
Cailín
Lhuna
Mith - her few latest posts are quite convincing
Fin
Tom
LMP - after rereading his posts I didn't find anything especially suspicious there

Totally unknown
Durelin
TGWBS
Fea
I can't interpret their behaviour.

Wary of
morm

Originally Posted by morm

She [Thinlómien] wanting to kill me because of my playing style and gives herself an out too. She says if she comes back she will look for some real suspects yet when she comes back I don't see her do that. She admits I'm not a real suspect but I appear to be an easy target so she goes for me. If I was lynched nobody would think it horribly suspicious to vote for me that early on. Voting somebody on 'playing style' in not very acceptable to me in that we all have our own and valid styles. If I am suspicious and you can find a reason, fine vote for me but not for this petty dribble.

So that's the problem with me? I found you a little suspicious plus I didn't like your playing style. As I didn't have any stronger suspicions, I voted you. I came back. I reread some things, but still saw you as the most suspicious person. Or did you miss this:

Originally Posted by me

I'm leaving now. My vote stays the same as I suspect morm as much as my other main suspect Cara, and I feel an innocent Cara would be more useful to the village than an innocent morm with his current behaviour.

? As to the playing style, I have nothing against your normal playing style, but I didn't like the way you played on Days 1 & 2.
I agree with you to some point that voting because of someone's playing style is rather stupid, but I also think that if there are many people one suspects as much, I think playing style can be taken into consideration, (which I did yesterday).

Originally Posted by LMP

Care to explain what you mean? This is awfully vague, which is in its turn rather suspicious, although, Lommy, I suppose you tend to be vague, so maybe this is just you theorizing out loud. Either way, I'd appreciate it if you would do me the courtesy of explaining what "nonsense" you're talking about? Thanks.

I only meant that according to my little experiences you are theorising and making cases much more, so the way you played stroke me as odd. If you want me to comment your posts post by post and explain what I think about each one, feel free to ask me. I won't, anyway, do that unless requested, since I think it's a little help and just floods the thread (okay, it wasn't me the floodposter who said that ) and takes my time.

Now I'm off to do a morm-analysis...

edit: xed with Celuien, TGWBS and Lhuna

[the guy who be short]

Just popping in. I was planning on doing a morm-analysis myself. If Lommy covers the points, fine; if she doesn't, I'll do it myself anyway.

I just have time to comment on LMP. LMP started the SpM bandwagon with what seemed like complete certainty. This makes me think he is innocent - he once aimed such a concerted attack on me. I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him.

[Celuien]

The Short One:

55: Apologies for late arrival. Lots of Pokemon talk. Thinks that day 1 is useless because innocents have nothing to work on. Will vote at random, says he will not retract his vote. Votes Cailin.
57: Says there’s an inconsistency in SPaM’s idea about the usefulness of day ones re finding clues in Kath’s narration.
61: Says the mod is impartial and there are no clues in the narration.
83: Doesn’t care about retractable votes, says he won’t use them because they shouldn’t be needed and he’s too lazy to make use of any advantage they may give. Says they make w
olf-spotting harder. Is apathetic about the Changling.
91: More Pokemon. Wants reasoning for Morm’s vote.
Here ends day one…
Day two…
116: Joke about Formy and shorts. Says he notices Durelin (Anti-retractable votes. Pro-random. Good.), Caranlondien (Easily swayed by others. Bad) and Findeasea (Good reasons against Boro. Post 108).
118: Thinks Formy was killed for giving no information so the village can confuse itself, or (less likely) to cast suspicion on Saucy, LMP or Cailin. Suspicious of Spawn and Cailin.
122: Thinks Formy was killed to prevent disruptions.
154: Thinks SpaM is making mistakes that mistakes don’t look good for him. Finds theories about Morm, LMP, Caran and Durelin intersesting, but will ignore it because he doesn’t know who to trust.
156: Summary of events leading to Boromir’s death.
165: Pokemon talk and thinks that SPaM is too tricksey for him to analyze effectively. Thinks Mormy is reluctant to voice worries that keep him on the suspect list.
169: La mort de Boromir, deuxième partie. Neutral towards Tom, but not sure what to think of him.
171: Doesn’t want to jump on minor details to make a case about wolvery because it leads to innocents dying. Defense of views on Caran, Cailin and Morm.
176: Doesn’t think Lommy is a wolf based on her attacks on Boro, suspects spawn a little.
197: Thinks morm is apathetic and unreasonable and that it would be good to kill him whether or not he’s a wolf. Votes for Mormegil.
221: Would be glad to kill SpM for being unfathomable. Not sure what to think of Caran, other than her being easily manipulated. Will consider switching to SpM.
228: Says Findeasea is pathetic for voting Mith (throwaway vote). Is inclined to switch to SpM, but doesn’t want to make a tie.
232: Switches vote to SpM to save Caran.
234: Tells Morm and Nogrod to change their votes to SpM to save Caran.
241: Rhetorical question about losing an innocent SpM versus the Hunter.
243: Would change back to Morm, but Caran would die if he did. Wants to know what Morm finds threatening about him.
249/250: More about voting for SpM/saving Caran.
Here ends day two…
Day three…
286: Thinks Cailin and he are exonerated by their efforts to save Caran.
289: Thinks LMP is innocent because of the certainty with which he started the SpM bandwagon, but will be careful not to listen to him due to LMP’s record of getting innocents lynched.

I find TGWBS rather unsuspicious. While I disagree with his claim that working to save Caran exonerates him - any intelligent wolf would have done the same thing to maintain cover and gain village trust - he says enough reasonable things and has overall behaved honestly enough (I think) that he doesn't really garner much suspicion from me.

Agree with the assessment of LMP. He doesn't strike me as a wolf. Same reasons as TGWBS. Agressively attacking innocent SPM was risky, and my opinion is that LMP would be better at staying undercover as a furry one than to try to get SPM lynched.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I have come to disregard much of what he says simply because he has a knack for accusing innocents and getting them lynched. So, while I maintain that he is innocent, I will be sure not to listen to him.

Thanks for the words of confidence. Funny, your opinion of me is largely the same as mine of SPM. So, do you have a knack, Guy, for accusing wolves and getting them lynched? We shall see this game...

Just an observation: I'm seeing one of those typical skirmishes that we see between two players with markedly different styles: Morm & Lommy are really going after each other. What that usually means, based on my lorebooks, is that both are likely innocent and are strongly reacting to each other. Make of that what you will.

I'm willing to go with the general sense of the village, that Caran is the Hunter; as I said, I think it most likely.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

A very bold move indeed for a wolf, and I have to admit one a wolvish Elempi wouldn't risk.

Good to see you know me. But that doesn't mean I trust you ... yet. You sound innocent, and there are others who seem more wolvish this time....

Originally Posted by Lhuna

But what stands out to me from this flurry of votes are those who seem not to want to get involved in the lynching of two innocents, as we know them now. Actually, that should be singular: Fin's vote for Mith. And yes, admittedly tgwbs presented the idea of it being a throwaway vote right after she cast it, but I just want to bring it up to everyone lest he forgets, because it's really worth noting.

Very true. I've been watching this one and (s)he seems to have all those earmarks that I find most disturbing: playing both sides against the middle, switching or casting suspicious looking votes, such close and careful reasoning in a post that you wonder what is being hidden. And so on.

Lhuna, Morm explained his suspicion of Guy already.

Must run. I have a Festival to go to again, so I must cast my vote now.

++ Findëasëa

[Thinlómien]

Day 1
#12 - Says he's glad to see Kath dead and jokes about ww-meat.
#86 - Says he's in a hurry and he has a lot to catch up; votes TGWBS. Reason:

Man it feels good to have you back! You can be a Kath replacement .

Day 2
#133 - Suspects Cara (says she's nervous, reacts but not too strongly to accusations, tries to divert suspicion) and votes her.
#157 - Says he's catching up, confirms LMP's werewolf weariness comment. Says Thinlómien tries to grasp any straw that is moderately suspicious and claims she intentionally misunderstood SPM and twisted his words. Names Thinlómien, Cara and TGWBS as his top suspects, but gives no reasoning. Explains his absence.
#233 - Explains his RL hurries.
#239 - Quotes TGWBS:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Morm - Caran is the hunter. Change your vote to SpM to save her, unless you don't believe her.
Nogrod - You can't get morm now. You too should change your vote.

and says comments like that are the base of his suspicions of him.

Day 3
#261 - Is back, explains his ww weariness and his reasons to be in the game mainly being only that Kath is modding. Sums up general impressions. Suspects Cailín, TGWBS, Thinlómien and Durelin. Doesn't suspect Mith, Fea, Nogrod and Celuien.
#268 - Claims that if he was a wolf, no one would be suspecting him. Suspects Thinlómien and says she does a remarkable job at picking flavour of the day.
#275 - Analyses Thinlómien. Accuses her of twisting SPM's words, not understanding him, giving weak reasoning on Boromir-vote, voting morm because of playing style and "taking path of least resistance".

Conclusions up in a minute, and a few responses to him on passages I felt uneasy about...