Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[littlemanpoet]

Frolic frolic

Feels like early morning here and the graves don't dig themselves. However I have a moment.

++ FORMENDACIL

I just don't trust him. Lupine. Wolvish. Sneak.

[Lhunardawen]

I guess I must be off. I leave you with

++THE GUY WHO BE SHORT

because who knows what beast he might use against one of us next?

Now, if you'll excuse me...which way is the hut where I'm staying?

[Boromir88]

I don't understand all the gloom about retractable votes. They could be a great benefit to the village. Let's say if you're a wolf, instead of one carefully planned vote, you can go back and change your strategy, perhaps to save a partner, perhaps to lynch a suspected gifted...etc. See wolves no who's on their side, retractable votes can be a benefit to them, but also to their own demise.

Also, retractable votes have no bearing on the voting record, which is still an important key to deciding who's a wolf and who isn't.

Since I'm innocent I can't say how retractable votes benefit me. That will only give the wolves clues to my thought process, and inside information to my own mind. And that's not good, if the wolves know their victims they are much more dangerous. So, I prefer to with hold information as to some things that I feel like doing (retracting votes for instance).

Retractable votes create confusion. There are lots of early votes thrown around... I understand people just want to stir the discussion a bit, or have fun, but wouldn't that make a perfect cover for a wolf? Especially when there's plenty of these random votes around...~Thinlomien

If this is directed to me, I accept your challenge...

--Sauce

++Lommy

Retractable votes create confusion? The only confusion it would create a hastle for is for Kath...who's now dead, so it shouldn't matter. Please explain, I want to hear what makes retractable votes "confusing?" (Note: Anyone can step up to the plate on this one if they have an explanation...I'm merely trying to understand this view of retractable votes being confusing and useless. I've explained the why not, now I want to hear the "why's").

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

A lot of people are acting more carelessly than usual. Yes, it might be just that villagers want to change their style every now and then, but it might also be a wolf with an identity crisis.

The villager's who are looking different in that sense are Boromir, Formendacil and perhaps Cailín.

Form seems more frustrated and complains about Day One more than usually. He has posted twice, but he hasn't really said anything. There's no need to decide beforehand that Day Ones are horrible and act in a gloomy and unhelpful way, you know. There are other sides in this game, too, than scrolling through pages and pages for making analyses. I find Day 1s to be great - only a bit different from the rest of the Days.
Form has no suspicions since he can't associate a turtle with any of the villagers, so he gives a heads-up concerning his comings and goings.
He says that things are going normally, and he'll be back when someone has managed to make themselves a lynching candidate.

Boromir, on the other hand, is more fickle than usual. First he posts in character that he wants to assassinate spawn, and he says that things doesn't look good.

He isn't surprised to be found on Fea's list of "Big Scary Things", but he says that Fea's vengeful attitude is going to get her into trouble. Is that a... threat? He votes for spawn.

Boromir points out that the votes are retractable, and he sure is taking an advantage of that. He changes his vote for Sauce, and says that he's saving Sauce from being ripped apart at Night.

He defends retractable votes, but doesn't explain how they're going to help him. Boromir gives an example how these votes benefit the wolves, but doesn't tell how he thinks that they help innocents in general. He votes for Lommy because she said that retractable votes can confuse us and he disagrees.

I think the votes cause confusion because it's harder to keep track of how many votes someone currently has, and why someone changed their opinion. I expect to see some interesting "excuses" for changing a vote as the Days pass by which might later help those who have ridiculous amounts of time to browse the voting records while making analyses, but madly voting anyone who crosses your road isn't the only way to take advantage of the new system. Since everyone knows that they can change their votes whenever they like, casting a vote doesn't have the same weight in gauging lynchees' reactions since, especially toDay, I suspect that people want to have a bit of fun with voting for each other before they decide on their final vote.


Cailín has been hastier and more careless than usual. On the other hand she's a tragedienne, but she has been quick to accuse people with "Day 1" reasons. She voted for Lhuna because... it was in the script? However, this has been crazier first Day than normally, and that voting frenzy seems contagious. She promised to be more like herself later, so I look forward to that.


Sauce, that's a good way to tally the votes, I think. If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by spawn

I think the votes cause confusion because it's harder to keep track of how many votes someone currently has ...

Here you go m'dear:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)
SpM ≠> Fea => Form (SpM-1, Celuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-2, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Originally Posted by spawn

[Boro] defends retractable votes, but doesn't explain how they're going to help him.

I can understand how he might use them and why he's not prepared to explain this for the benefit of the Wolves.

Originally Posted by spawn

Since everyone knows that they can change their votes whenever they like, casting a vote doesn't have the same weight in gauging lynchees' reactions since, especially toDay, I suspect that people want to have a bit of fun with voting for each other before they decide on their final vote.

Just because someone can change their vote, it doesn't mean that they will. I still think that there is much that we can learn from the votes, even today.

Originally Posted by spawn

Sauce, that's a good way to tally the votes, I think. If only I could find a button in my keyboard for making that unequal mark...

Try cutting and pasting from Word.

[tom bombariffic]

This is going to be an interesting day.

At the moment, no-one has said anything to majorly rouse my suspicions - a symptom of first-day-itis, I suspect. I can't guarantee that I will be back by voting time, though I hope to be, and so I will cast a vote for

++Boromir88

To explain, there were just a couple of niggling things about his long post. He says that

[retractable votes] can be of great benefit to the village

but follows this up by saying that

Since I'm innocent I can't say how retractable votes benefit me

I also found the emphasis on his own innocence very overt.

There is no real evidence against boromir. But the above caught my suspicious attention in a way that no other posts had done so far, so I have voted with my instinct, which is the best way to get started on a group of people with clean slates.

Glad to be in the village.

bombariffic

[Mithalwen]

Just checking in ... going to read but probably won't be able to comment til after work. Busy time in the aura industry....

[Mithalwen]

I have always supported retractable votes and they can benefit the village but I know how annoying it is for the poor dead moderator to keep track. So I shan't change my vote at a whim. I do realise since I am going to be around until fairly near the end of the day it won't affect me so much.

Personally I do find frivolous voting and changing suspicious. The wolves have most to gain, in my opinion, from creating confusion. A vote should always be a serious thing - this is life and death remember not picking a restaurant.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have to get my thoughts down, given that I seem to make a habit of dying on Night 2.

It would seem that my retainers have fled in fear and my mansion is left unguarded. So I have no option but to seek security amongst my fellow villagers, even if not all of you commoners are to my taste (particularly those amongst you harbouring secret fangs and Wolvish pangs). But, as I said, no autographs. I know that it must be a great privilege for you to find yourselves in my esteemed company. But, please, restrain yourselves.

First off, a note to Nilp:

I CUSS CANINE NOTE

Trust me? Well, I appreciate that it might be difficult for you, but you should (unless you are hiding a furry pelt, which is distinctly possible).

Some good thoughts coming out on the Changeling. It is clear that she has potential to be extremely powerful. After all, she will after a few Days have a great deal of knowledge. Quite possibly more than our Seer. And knowledge is power, right?

Each Night, the Changeling will learn the identity of another villager. And she has the advantage over the Seer in knowing her own identity, something the Seer will never know. And if she has the good fortune of actually picking the Seer one Night, she will learn the identity of two villagers that Night. So, although the Seer has an additional Night in which to dream (the Night just passed), the Changeling is likely over time to gain even more knowledge.

So how should the Changeling use that power? Lhuna has suggested that she might use it to benefit the Wolves. The Changeling would be foolish indeed were she to do such a thing. The only way she can win in this way is by assuming the identity of a Wolf in circumstances where, at the end of a Day, the innocents (including her) outnumber the Wolves by one. What are the chances of that happening? It is far more likely that she will die before she is able to get that far. And even if she survives that long, she will, unless she knows the identity of a Wolf who has not already been lynched, have to make an educated guess, and that could go awry.

If, on the other hand, the Changeling uses her power for good, she has a far greater chance of ending up on the winning side. This is because she will be able to use her own knowledge to augment that of the Seer. If both the Changeling and the Seer are able to survive for a few Days, their pooled knowledge will (as I think Nogrod suggested) be sufficient to give the village a great chance of victory. Furthermore, if the Changeling knows the identity of either the Ranger or a Wolf if and when her identity becomes apparent, she will be able to use that knowledge to preserve her life for one more Night at least.

So, Changeling, play for the village. You know it makes sense.

One question, though. Will we learn the identity of the Changeling after she is killed? I assume that we will, but it is important to be sure on this.

And now some thoughts on what has passed already today. First, the votes:

Boro => spawn (spawn-1)
SpM => Fea (spawn-1, Fea-1)
Boro ≠> spawn => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-1)
Caran => Celuien (Fea-1, SpM-1, Celuien-1)
Nilp => SpM (Fea-1, SpM-2, Celuien-1)
Cailín => Lhuna (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1)
Elempi => Form (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1)
Lhuna => TGWBS (Fea-1, SpM-2, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1)
Boro ≠> SpM => Lommy (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1)
Celuien => Nilp (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1)
Tom => Boro (Fea-1, SpM-1, Ceuien-1, Lhuna-1, Form-1, TGWBS-1, Lommy-1, Nilp-1, Boro-1)

Hmm. Having fun with the retractable votes are we?

I tend to agree with Boromir that, as we have retractable votes, we should try to use them to our advantage. I intend to do so. There are a number of ways in which this can be done, but like Boro I will leave people to work this out for themselves. I agree, Mith, that they should not be used on a whim. But they can be used tactically, and that may involve changing votes a number of times. Yes, Wolves can use them too. But they can also be caught out using them.

Because of what he has said in this regard, I am inclined to trust Boro for now. I am also inclined to trust Nogrod because he has shared some good thoughts on the Changeling role and because he is coming across as genuine. Some good thoughts from him too on the “Animalia” theme, which are worth bearing in mind. As I said, a Nogrod that seems genuine most likely is genuine. Celuien, Lhuna and spawn too are looking more innocent than not in my eyes at the moment, for their contributions to the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

On the other hand, I am currently concerned about the following:

Fea
Form
Lommy
Nilp
Caran
Cailín

Fea because of her reaction to the “suspicions” that were voiced about her. It’s worth looking at exactly what she said:

Originally Posted by Fea

I feel so important that y'all are so keen on me just now. Sad, really... used to be that when somebody tried to kill me, I knew they were evil... or just trying to find out how my Great Glass Feavator works... or getting the recipe for Gobstoppers... you all know the drill, I'm sure, especially with the enthusiasm with which dentists seem to approach my customers.

Nowadays? No... nobody trusts poor Fea. And she's almost always pure as the ingredients she puts into sweets as sweet as she is. Sure, sometimes the sweet is a little nutty, but you know the old saying... Almond Joy's got nuts, Mounds don't. Must be Nilp and Spam don't like Almond Joys, but such is the sad lot of a confectionist working in a small town.

Er, it’s only me who has voted for you and that was a random vote (when initially cast, at least). Boro simply commented on your inclusion of him on your own random list and Nilp mentioned you in passing as part of his “kill the loudmouths” strategy (of which more in a moment). Yet apparently this amounts to everyone wanting to kill you and nobody trusting you. Yeah, right! Methinks ye doth protest too much, my lady. Yes, your reaction is peppered liberally with smilies and banter. But that only serves to emphasise its suspicious nature, in my view. You are indeed one to watch and, contrary to my initial intention, I may just now stick with my vote.

Form and Lommy I mistrust because of their continued railing against Day 1s as being useless. I happen to disagree. There is much that we can learn from Day 1. In my view, some reactions have already quite possibly been rather telling. And what is said today may become yet more useful in the Days to come. It serves the Wolves’ interests to keep Day 1s uneventful, to add little of use to the debate themselves and to remain non-committal. And what better way to do that than to rant on about little else other than how awful Day 1s are. Which is precisely what Form and Lommy have done. Indeed, Lommy went further and sought to muddy the waters of the Changeling and retractable votes debates.

I am concerned about Nilp for his lynch the “loudmouths” strategy, and not because it produced a vote for me. I am all for lynching loudmouths if they act suspiciously. But I do not agree with lynching them just because they are loudmouths. If only the quiet villagers remain at the end, then it makes the Wolves’ job so much easier. That said, this village seems rather short on quiet villagers, and Nilp’s strategy looks like a bold one for a Wolf to suggest, so I am less concerned about him than the others.

Finally, I am slightly wary of Caran and Cailín for jumping on the “early retractable votes bandwagon” which Boro and I started. Seeing how retractable votes were being used by others from the outset, a Wolf would be only to keen to jump in and place an early vote (which may be changed later, if necessary) with little or no reasoning. And that’s precisely what Caran and Cailín did. Caran cast her vote for Celuien, whom I had randomly voiced suspicion of, while Cailín went for Lhuna, generally known as a traditional early lynch target for Wolves. It’s not enough to warrant a vote yet, but I’ll be keeping my eye on them.

As for the remaining villagers, I currently have no view.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Now that's just silly, Sauce. We all know that when I'm a wolf I tell everybody.

No, seriously though. It's day one and all I'm doing is sitting back to watch the banter. That post was purely a "Hey, I'm still around.", only in-character. I saw you having fun with yours and wanted to play. *looks vaguely pitiful and cute* But yeah... I noticed in my last lifetime that when I don't do much but sit back and watch, I successfully identify a vast number of bad guys. Given that and the fact that I'm on a bit of a time crunch right now anyhow, it should work out nicely.

As for retractable voting, I don't plan to partake. My vote will be my vote.

As for the changeling... I'll think more on this aspect of our village and maybe post thoughts later.