Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Apologies for my absence yesterDay, all.

To business. As one of an (ever-shrinking) number of voting innocents, I am not going to make my previous mistake and vote with my first post.

Going back a bit: I was planning on calling Morm out when I got on. But the rest of you took care of that yesterday. I must admit I was a little smug when I read that he turned out to be a baddie, just because I was about to snap because of being constanty discredited. Sure, I haven't been doing my best, but I'm not sure I deserved what I got from him.

Anyhow. I'm not going to be so bold as to proclaim anyone a wolf for sure just yet, but I think just from toDay's first couple posts, we can determine that at least one of Eomer and Lalaith is a wolf, if not both. I agree with Diamond that the set-up of the two votes is a little too convenient, but I'm not sure which one (if not both) is guilty yet.

More to come later (though I'm not sure how long, exactly, that will be).

[JennyHallu]

Diamond, I highly doubt they're both wolves. Why would they set themselves up that way when all they need is one innocent kill? One of them is, definitely, but not both.

And I'm considering the possibility that I may have to vote tonight.

Weekends are crazy busy when you work all week, and I have no way of knowing how much time I'll have or if I'll have time before the deadline tomorrow. Must think about this...no mistakes today.

But frankly, Lalaith is looking most suspicious to me, for several reasons:

First, I think there were probably wolves in both bandwaggons yesterday (Eomer and Oddwen). One in the former, and two in the latter. Looked at that way, the people who look most suspicious in my mind are Lalaith and Eomer, and I think that only one is a wolf.

Lalaith has been going SO gung-ho against Eomer for days now. When we are this close to the wire, we really need to think things out and discuss them. One wrong step today loses us the game...we need to think out our candidates and see multiple possibilities. She's been the first vote cast two days in a row, and we know she's no seer to have this kind of certainty. She's also been interpreting every little phrase of Eomer's using very emotionally charged words: gloating, etc. I also don't think her argument about the Hunter defending Eomer holds water: All Gurthang's gifteds were in his family, and with Morm as a wolf, I don't think it's at all unlikely that was noticed and acted upon.

I'm really seeing Lalaith as a more probable wolf. Eomer's posts have just felt more and more frustrated to me, which makes a lot of sense if someone is wildly and consistently accusing you, and then using your every defense to bolster their "case". He's just feeling more innocent each day.

I'm going to pause and think a bit, and vote at the latest tomorrow morning, depending on how what's left of tonight goes.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Diamond, I highly doubt they're both wolves. Why would they set themselves up that way when all they need is one innocent kill? One of them is, definitely, but not both.

Well, here's my logic, such as it is:

The wolves can afford to lose one, at this point. Lalaith and Eomer have lately been gaining lost of suspicion, so it's likely one or the other will die. Instead of trying to fight this, they have embraced it and decided that if one must die they will at least make it look very good for the other. Tomorrow the survivor of this little game will then use his/her increased trustworthiness (in collusion with the third wolf) to rather effortlessly direct the village onto an innocent, ending the game. It's a more reliable tactic for an Eomer/Lalaith duo than trying to keep both of themselves alive. Fear of this one small failure could be shooting themselves in the foot, so they are meeting it head on, going at each others' throats.

I don't know any of this for sure, but it's what entered my head when I read their opening posts.

Lalaith, I'm sure you all know by now, is someone I do not feel comfortable leaving alive.

As for Aimé, yesterday I felt pretty confident in my guess that he's innocent -- but Oddwen's innocent death has somewhat shaken that. We all make mistakes, and I too voted for Oddwen, but he seemed to have instigated the lynching. Which worries me. Also, in his argument against Lalaith today he used the phrase "so sweet and innocent" which is the words I used to describe her earlier... and this coupled with my earlier declaration of trust in him makes me wonder if he's trying to take advantage of my earlier thinking him innocent. Perhaps I am a villager he thinks to use as his puppet. This could be true whether or not Lalaith is a fellow wolf. At any rate, I highly dislike the idea of being made someone's patsy so.... Perhaps I just find it odd that he's now expressing many of the same opinions about Lalaith as I did earlier, and claiming to have felt so all along, when I don't remember him being particularly anti-Lalaith before. (Perhaps I need to go back and read his posts more closely.)

But I do not want to abandon my pursuit of Lalaith and turn on Eomer so quickly -- that would be ignoring instincts in the light of a little new confusion, and somehow it seems to me that abandoning instinct is the worst thing to do. If my instinct leads me foul, at least I can live with that, if I ignore my instinct and it proved to be true, then I'll be kicking myself all up and down the forum.

[Lalaith]

As luck would have it, I was able to get on again this morning before I leave.
I voted right out because
a. I didn't think I'd get another chance (see T-i-G thread)
b. we HAVE to get this right today, and I didn't want the wolves to start yet another fruitless bandwaggon.

The wolves can afford to lose one, at this point. Lalaith and Eomer have lately been gaining lost of suspicion, so it's likely one or the other will die. Instead of trying to fight this, they have embraced it and decided that if one must die they will at least make it look very good for the other

This just doesn't stand up, Di. The wolves will win today, in all likelihood. If an innocent is lynched today, we will be down to four/three. The wolves kill another toNIght, and bingo, wolf victory.

Why on earth would the EW pick me to be a wolf?

Because she had a LOT of picks, and you'd survived a long time already when she picked you. I'm not saying she would have picked you right off, I think you were turned quite near the end.

I haven't been going for Eomer for "days." Just yesterDay and today, and I think The reason I'm gung-ho, btw, is because someone has to be. I get the feeling that there have been very few active innocents left in the last few days.

And btw, innocents - statistically, it is very likely that at least one wolf is disagreeing with me right now about Eomer.

Think about that. And think about who was saved by the Sleepy bandwaggon, and who was saved by the Oddwen bandwaggon.
I'm going now, and won't back until sometime late on the next Day, in the unlikely event that we are all here.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

I agree with Jenny that "frustrated" posts can convey innocence...the situation you set up with Lalaith consistantly attacking Eomer is one that I'm going to have to review that thread to look into. If that's the case, Eomer, I certainly feel your pain. If this is the case, it makes Eomer look very innocent, and I doubt it's a good wolf plan to constantly attack another wolf, as it's one that could easily backfire.

Lalaith's last post does bear some consideration. If we don't lynch a werewolf toDay, we will lose. So it's a high-pressure situation.

Unfortunately, I'm going to have to vanish in about three hours, and probably won't be back until the next Day (if there is one). So I'm going to review the thread, do some careful consideration, and wait and see what happens.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Right, hold on just a moment.

First of all, in defence of Lalaith's tactics, I wouldn't say she's been going after me like crazy; but I do think she's being rather narrow-minded and stuck in her ways.

Second, Diamond, I didn't even look at your posts about Lalaith when making my first post today. I knew you were the one villager to really suspect Lalaith but the only point I remembered you making was that Lalaith posts a lot without ever really saying much.

I will post again in a few minutes to show that I am not hopping on any bandwagon. Diamond, you may be the original Lalaith-accuser but you haven't voted for her for a couple of days now. I hardly think that's bandwagon-jumping. I'm not accusing Lalaith of bandwagoning me due to the votes I received earlier in the game, am I?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, that didn't take long. My second post of the game (#80) includes my first direct suspicion.

"If I were a wizard, of any persuasion, I would have chosen Lalaith."

And I repeat it later that day in #151. As you can see, Diamond, while I may never have been as anti-Lalaith as you (and why should I have been with less evidence back in those days?) I have always suspected that she would be cursed by the EW. As I kept saying back in those early days — and why so many of you thought I was the EW because of this I don't know — were I the Evil Wizard, Lalaith would have been the first villager I would have cursed. So even though I think she is instilled with evil, you can see how much of a compliment that is.

Diamond, looking back I see that you called Lalaith 'pleasant and innocent' in #879 (not 'sweet and innocent', which to be honest, are words I use to describe pretty much any female), and I also saw your case against her when voting for her in #922. It doesn't really come that close to what I said about Lalaith earlier today. Could you maybe clarify where my points are similar to yours?