Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Roa

I will happily go about building cases for presentation, but as I'm on the LIST OF DOOOOOOOOOOM (things always sound cooler with "doom" after them)

Yes, yes they do. In fact, it was the DAY OF DOOOOOOOOOM* that would have kept me from playing if LMP hadn't pushed back the deadline.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, and I think this was mentioned already, we're giving the EW a heads up on who is suspected by us, and who will be in danger of lynching tomorrow, making it easier on him to pick a wolf that won't get killed.

See my above post.


*ask later.

[Lalaith]

Gurthang, my chief concern was that you would be challenged by the EW at some point toDay or tomorrow, and therefore unable to make a list for us.
That's why I wanted to get in a contigency plan.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Gurthang, my chief concern was that you would be challenged by the EW at some point toDay or tomorrow, and therefore unable to make a list for us.
That's why I wanted to get in a contigency plan.

After I die, everything will be like a normal WW game. I won't be making more gifteds, and there won't be new werewolves. You guys will have to find the wolves just like those in the lorebooks, and I know you'll be able to do it.

But I have to leave, and there's no guarantee that I'll be back. I'm still drawn between Roa and Valier. There are good points for and against each of them. But I must decide.

++Valier

Her switch after Night 3 is telling. It makes a lot of sense if she were a wolf. There was also that strange crying apology post.

If I don't get back, then I'll see you guys tomorrow.

[Roa_Aoife]

You know, that brings up something I've been wondering about myself- So in the event of a challenge, are both wizards removed immediately? Or do they last till the end of the day? Do they come up with a cool fight scene? That would be cool. Gurthang vs the EW in what might be considered an actual RP. After Gurthang's opening, it's something I bet I'd enjoy reading.

The Diamond analysis is coming- I haven't done this much work since Lommy's massive flood posting several games ago.

[Kath]

OK, you've all written way, way, way too much and I'm not even going to pretend that I'm going to read through all of it properly toDay, but I've done a skim read and know basically what's going on.

Gurthang I'll follow your lead and list.

++VALIER

Because she has been so against Roa from the word go, to the extent that she doesn't even seem to see other possible candidates.

Now, my apologies but this will be my only post toDay I should think. T'was my last day of minstrel school and I've spent the last couple of hours drowning my sorrows and am therefore not completely with it, and may be heading out again in the near future. BUT. This does not mean this is a random vote. I took Gurthang's list and voted for the one I found most suspicious from previous Days and as much of toDay as I read.

One thing, regifting Nilp toNight would be a good plan. If the EW then goes after him there's a stalemate, we lose a Gifted toNight but the EW doesn't gain a wolf. And if the EW doesn't go after Nilp we gain a Seer for at least one Night.

[Lalaith]

Well, Kath, there is always the option that the wolves will just kill Nilp. In fact, there will be two kills tonight, as there will be at least four wolves even if we succeed in killing one toDay

[Kath]

Told you I wasn't with it Thanks for making that clear Lalaith.

[Roa_Aoife]

Diamond analysis- Since there's too much for me to keep track of, I'm going to analyze as I summarize.

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, states intention to not vote for anyone in her family, and vote to save any one of theses members, will drop this after Day 1, gives thoughts on villagers (mostly nonsense), though some predictions turned out accurately:

Nogrod ~ My dear long suffering hubby, it's only a matter of time before he snaps. Sure he's okay now, but watch out for that one in the later stages.

Naria ~ Inhuman.

The Saucepan Man ~ Must die.

Of course, this is just as likely luck as it is something malicious. It just caught my eye, and made me wonder if she managed to state anymore truths.

2nd- Response to Loki, tells him to calm down

3rd - Defends Nogrod's attack on Loki, personal attack on Loki's playing style

4th - Response to Alcarillo, says she didn't threaten Cailin, merely predicted her death, says she hopes the predictions do not come true, more nonsense

5th - Clarification on the Loki matter- says it's reasonable that both wizards chose Loki, but refuses to believe it on his word alone, says there's no way of knowing except to kill Loki.

Here she says that Loki's claim is reasonable, but she refuses to believe it anyways.

6th - After suggestion by Celuien, questions Nogrod's reasons for attacking Loki, finds some of Nogrod's comments strange

I find this an odd turn around after everything that she'd said earlier. She admits that Nogrod's reasons don't really make sense, but only after Celuien remarked on it

7th - Nonsense response to phantom

8th - Says she's clueless about what sort of posting might reveal an Evil Wizard, believes the EW will be quiet, states that it would be really good for the village to catch the EW right now (Well, duh…)

9th - Agrees with Naria's guess about what the wizards fear. More Nonsense.

10th - This quote:

Yes... well, all that about the EW having more to fear than the GW and wanting to stay hidden as long as possible has been discussed as we've been, er, heeding the Watchers prophecy and preparing for the day when the Shadow arrived.

Sounds like she was trying to dismiss the talk about the EW

It's followed shortly by this:

Which brings me back around to expecting that the EW will be relatively quiet, banking on slipping just under our watchfulness. Being too quiet is suspicious in and of itself, so we'll be looking for someone riding the middle ground.

The second time she's stated that the EW will be quiet. She says it again later in her post. This looks incredibly similar to what Nogrod was saying about the wolves all being quiet, and it makes me wonder if she's trying to get us to look elsewhere for the EW.

11th - Glad she isn't the first to vote, doesn't fault Nilp's vote for Nogrod, admits Nogrod is suspicious, votes for Loki, wants to see Loki gone, says she'd give him the benefit of the doubt if it weren't for his attitude- This seems slightly hypocritical of Diamond since she's known for her attitude, and my lore books say that it's gotten her lynched before. It may also be a cover for her o be rid of the "one that got away"

Apologizes to family for not being around to save them if it becomes necessary.

This is just a devil's advocate view, but now that we know Nogrod was a wolf, and that he had fallen under suspicion at the point, it's possible that this was a direct comment to Nogrod.

Day 2, up next… Oi vey…

[Kitanna]

DAY THREE

Zali=
For some reason, prolonged wailing on and on really hits a nerve in me, which I'm sure is not entirely reasonable. But there it is. At least Diamond's post didn't feel like it was lacking in substance. Alcarillo provides no explanation for this totally in character wailing.

A reasonable case against Alcarillo, but up until this point she had seen nothing wrong with him. Now his melodramatic mourning session did give many people reason to suspect him and Zali may be no different. But you never know, she could have had a sudden change of heart for another reason.

Zali=
I'm going to vote for Eomer because he has, at the very least, an unhealthy obsession with the EW. I realize that this is happening without giving him any chance to defend himself, which is not ideal.

A vote for Eomer based on what Morm brought forward for us to see.

Zali=
Should Eomer turn out to be innocent, I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling.

Again not unreasonable, but if I had to say anyone started an Eomer bandwagon it would have been Zali not Morm, since she cast the first vote against him. I feel this is just Zali covering her tracks if she happens to be wrong and Eomer is killed an innocent. This makes me think if Zali is guilty, then Eomer is most likely an innocent.

Eomer=
Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.

But almost every post from day one was about your supposed choices if you were evil, that doesn't look very good for you, considering your history.

Eomer=
but there is no way I am being cursed as a wolf. My survival rate is pitiful.

I believe this to be beyond true. I seriously doubt any EW would dare pick Eomer as a wolf. I'd say he's the EW or nothing.

Valier=
I know this is in the Narration, but I find this extremely odd as well......Weaving TALES are we? You know....this sounds like Roa's making alot of bluffing stories....I know we shouldn't use this, but where does it say that there isn't a shred of truth in the deaths?

I find it odd and troubling Valier used the narration to find some sort of evidence, even if we all knew it meant very little.

Valier=
I found this as well and it seems to have been true....I think Nogrod and Naria would have been bad picks for the GW, hence good picks for the EW. Also Loki could be in this list as well... Sounds Fishy to me that Roa's "plan" came true...Could just be a coincedence, but I doubt it...

I find it rather fishy you picked one wolf as a "goodie" and one wolf as a "baddie." What Roa said is just as odd as what you said.

Valier=
I don't think they're far fetched...So the Phantom let everyone know that he was the Hunter then by posting the arrow and I don't think it far fetched that he very well may have put in an anagram. I think Naria or one of the other wolves picked up on that and voted to kill him.....but I am still not sure.....Phantom did not kill Naria though

Funny you should say this. If you picked up on that when phantom posted it you could have decided to kill phantom in the night and your wolven comrades had a similar idea. However as many pointed out to Valier, phantom was not made the Hunter until that day had ended. So why did Valier continue to push her arrow idea?

Roa=
Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

A true statement, but I can't help feeling Roa is just trying to get everyone to look a Valier and not her.

Roa=
I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty.

Roa defended Loki who turned out to be innocent, here she defends Alcarillo, who no one knows about yet. And she attacked Nogrod who turned out to be guilty. This could go either way, Roa may well be innocent and has really good luck in catching the good and bad. Or she could be trying to put herself out there as an innocent and she can fall back on "I was right about Loki and Nogrod, why shouldn't I be right about Alcarillo?" If that is true and Roa is evil I'd say look closely at Alcarillo. If she's innocent, I wouldn't remove Alcarillo from the suspect list, but I'd focus on others before him.

Eomer=
Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea.

Picking between one's mother and one's love is not an easy choice you know.

Valier=
Feel free to look at me deeply tomorrow if I don't get killed by evil Roa and her wolves overnight....I have nothing to hide!

Not the first and most certainly not the last time Valier comes out and says Roa is the EW. I find it hard to see an EW Valier doing this over and over again. It raises an alarm, but I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. Valier just made this day chaotic, maybe she was just putting the cherry on the top.

DAY FOUR

Valier=
So I would like to find a wolf today and let the wizards do their own thing when they are ready.

Given Valier's oddity of Day three I decided to look into this statement. Mainly because most of the village has said finding the EW should be a main concern because then s/he can't make anymore wolves. Valier says the opposite. Valier had been pretty reckless earlier and given that it's hard for me to say what I should make of this. If I ignored Valier's claims of Roa being the EW and the whole phantom's arrow post, then I might say she is guilty. But given her behavior I find it hard to figure this out.

Roa=
Um, Fea, if the GW stepped forward, we could just lynch him to test his claim. And, actually, I'm not terribly opposed to that, except that we need to catch a wolf today, not a GW. The EW wouldn't really have any benefit to protecting the GW. Take some advil and possibly a nap.

I feel the village would lose a day with this plan and that is what the EW would want. Of course blindly following someone's claim is bad, but I can't see the evil ones gaining much by coming forward as the GW. That just gives the GW a leg up.

Valier=
I know, I know I cannot prove Roa is the EW (until she dies of course) and sadly no, I am not the unSeer. I just have a really strong feeling that's all! But I think our focus today should be on catching a wolf.

But your gut feelings have been wrong so far this game and it's possible they're wrong now. And if you are innocent lynching Roa on your gut feeling may be your doom as well (if she's innocent). But I know how you feel Valier, but even if you're right the wolves won't let you live through the night.

Valier=
Even if I was a wolf I would surely read everthing more careful, would I not? because making up lies is far harder than telling the truth or how I feel, which has been what I've been doing. I understand how others think I look suspicious but, like always in the Lore books if you check I am always found innocent when lynched because of my weird outbursts and accusations.

She speaks a good deal of truth here, but a small nagging feeling says she may be trying to bluff us.

[Kitanna]

Roa~ An excellent choice as a wolf. She has well thought-out arguements and can persuade others to her way of thinking. I'm not sure I think she's the EW, mainly because she had Nogrod lynched. Not just lynched, but she had a good case against him. I'd think if the EW picked her to be a wolf he'd reveal the others to her so she could avoid attacking them during the day in the fashion she attacked Nogrod. I'd say at the time of Nogrod's death Roa may not have been wolf. Knowing she can cover her tracks and persuade so well she may be the EW, but I'm not ready to put my vote on that.
Eomer~ An excellent bluffer and his "if I were the EW" statements do worry me, but the more I think about it the less likely I feel this bluff could be. He could pull it off, but I'm not as convinced today as I was yesterday. In any case he's a terrible wolf choice and if he's anything, he's the EW.
Zali~ At first nothing seemed amiss about her, but looking back she is rather odd. She was quick to jump on the Eomer bandwagon, which was partly because of time issues, but also looking at what had been said up until that point she may have thought Eomer would die and she wanted to make sure she had the first vote. Looking past that, Zali apologized for her votes, if she happened to be wrong. She tries to keep all her bases covered and has escape plans if her votes land her in trouble. What a good exit strategy. Her agreeable nature and ability to fly low and stay out of trouble makes her a choice for evil.
Valier~ A disturbing case. Valier's behavior of day three and part of today is so reckless I'm having trouble sorting out if she's bluffing us or just a terribly misguided innocent. She's a hard nut to crack and she gives me an uneasy feeling, but I can't vote based on that.

I'll probably vote for Zali or Valier today unless something happens before I get on to vote. But for now I'm going to go think over those two choices and figure out who is more likely to be evil.

[Valier]

Well I'm back now and I guess I have some defending to do.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Her switch after Night 3 is telling. It makes a lot of sense if she were a wolf. There was also that strange crying apology post

and some say I don't read carefully!! This appologetic post was for the Mod, for me using the narration for clues!!

Originally Posted by Thin

Valier - That's her normal playing style! Stop suspecting her for that! I have fallen to suspect her only because of that enough times to be quite sure she's innocent. Wolfvalier is - according to the sole chapter in my lorebook on the topic - more careful than ordovalier. And we can't accuse our Valier here for overcaredulness.

Thank goodness someone knows how I play!!

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Ok in this post Valier gives a list of who she thinks is good and who she thinks may be evil. On the bad list Naria appears, on the good list Nogrod appears. I don't have a whole lot to go on from that, but I did find that interesting.
Quote:

Yes I put Nogrod on my Goodie list because I thought he was innocent...boy did I get fooled!
I would just like to say that I don't think my switch in game play is odd! I believe Roa is guilty, but now that the GW is out I thought I would not have to concentrate on the wizards anymore and I could just look at who would be wolves....what's wrong with that?

[Lalaith]

Yes, catching wolves is good, but we really, really need to catch the EW soon.
While the EW lives, there will be two villager deaths a night. (And when the wolf population grows to seven, there will be three.) Even in the extremely unlikely situation that we successfully lynch a wolf every day, a new one will have appeared by morning to replace him.

[Valier]

I agree with you that the EW needs to go...why do you think I was pushing for Roa to go? I know noone else believes me about her, but what else was I supposed to do just quietly say Oh I think Roa is the EW? I wanted to cause a big fuss about it and was hoping to get some good reactions so I could strengthen my case against her and her Baddies. I thought everyone wanted to find the wolves and wanted me to look for them and not accuse the EW, that is why I made the "switch" to now start looking for wolves. So did anybody even look to see how others took my outbursts?