Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Lalaith]

I've just had another thought. (Damn it, where are my fellow Europeans, I'm feeling weird talking to myself here, and I expect Nilp's gone to bed)
By going on the list of yesterday's most suspected, aren't we then making it very unlikely that we'll find either of the wolves cursed last night?
They would probably be people who weren't under suspicion yesterDay, after all...
I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Oh, and yet another thought, drawing up a list toDay for the next Day's lynching will mean that whoever gets wolfed that following Night will not be one of those on that list. Something to bear in mind.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

'tis but 7 in the evening here.

You make some good points, which reinforce my feeling that you're innocent.

I've just had another thought. (Damn it, where are my fellow Europeans, I'm feeling weird talking to myself here, and I expect Nilp's gone to bed)
By going on the list of yesterday's most suspected, aren't we then making it very unlikely that we'll find either of the wolves cursed last night?
They would probably be people who weren't under suspicion yesterDay, after all...
I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Oh, and yet another thought, drawing up a list toDay for the next Day's lynching will mean that whoever gets wolfed that following Night will not be one of those on that list. Something to bear in mind. (Lalaith)

The solution to this would be to let the suspicion list be drawn up tomorrow, but unless we plan to do it when everybody has posted--which means some will already have voted and gone--we will be doing the list based on yesterDAY's posting enedwaith.

Doing it toDAY would give us time to deliberate more tomorrow (and allow the early voters to give a proper vote). At least we'll have a chance to catch the older Werewolves.

[Firefoot]

I see I've been drafted to write some kind of short list for you all. I can't promise anything; this may be the last time I'm on toDay, which is why I'm going to vote. If I'm around I'll try to put something together.

Dang it, none of these people look very suspicious to me.

++Azaelia

Diamond's analysis was interesting; I wish I had time to go check up on it myself, but I've already strayed way over time here.

Diamond, what's happening to our family? LMP, Nogrod, Lhuna, now Zali's on the lynch list...

[Lalaith]

It’s quiet both on here, and in my RL working life, so I’ve been passing the time collating info that might be of use.
My little project is called Voting Patterns and Wolf Creation.
We know that the EW tried to turn Nilp, who has been getting one vote on each day. The question is, at what level of suspicion does a player become too likely a lynch candidate to be a useful wolf? I suppose it depends not just on the number of votes but also on the number of other players saying they suspect the person. Anyway, here are the numbers:

Day One:
Nogrod 6,
Eomer 1,
Lommy 4,
Loki 8,
Nilp 1,
Oddwen 2,
SPM 2,
Kath 1,
Alcarillo 1,
Lhuna 1

Would Noggie have been made a wolf by the EW after this? Very unlikely. So he must surely have been a Day One wolf. Naria posted a lot (for her) on Day One. She also voted for Nogrod. What does that mean? Was she an original, or a Night Two/Three wolf? I’m now turning to the idea of the latter, which means a Day One wolf still walks among us….I would guess the EW would not have turned Lommy on Night Two, either.

Day Two:
Valier – 1 Lalaith – 2, Nogrod – 11, Roa – 2, Fea – 1, Oddwen – 6, Nilp – 1

Incidently, two wolves (if Naria was not the wolf created on Night Three) voted for Oddwen. Probably a coincidence, of course. But nonetheless, with so much suspicion on her, Oddwen would be an unlikely choice for wolfing on Night Three. And probably Roa and I fall in that category too.

Day Three:
Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-3, Celuien-5

Now this makes Zali, Eomer and Valier (and possibly also Alc and Roa) unlikely Night Four wolves.

Of course, the person in question might already have been a wolf when they started garnering suspicion. (vis a vis Nogrod)

[mormegil]

Diamond - Azaelia (Azaelia-1)
Jenny - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-1)
Roa - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-2)
Alcarillo - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-1)
Fea - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-2)
Nilp - Zali (Azaelia-2, Valier-2, Roa-2)
Firefoot - Zali (Azaelia-3, Valier-2, Roa-2)

Lalaith I think you have some interesting ideas on the suspicion list vs the new cursings. It actually fits rather well with my theory that Valier would have been the converted wolf on night 3 as she only received one vote on day 2.

From whom haven't we heard today? Eonwe, Glirdan, Kath and Sleepy. Out of this group Kath worries me the least as she has been sufficiently vocal up to this point. The others have me worried due to our natural desire to avoid killing somebody simply because they are quiet but I'd rather hear from them soon.