Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I hope she really didn't say that for I never voted Loki...

Never fear, Lommy. I'm not that off my rocker yet.

Originally Posted by Me, in the above cited post 181

...her sudden switch to voting for Nogrod...

Almost caught up...

[Roa_Aoife]

Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

Several points:

I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty.

As for Eomer, good points were made against him, but good points were also made by him. His behavior seems too obvious to me, but my lorebook only has one record of an Eomer in a pervious village, and that one didn't live past Day 1.

Zali did seem far too eager to jump on the Eomer bandwagon. However, this could have been due to time constraints forcing her to vote far too early to see any other viable suspect.

Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad.

I'm afraid I don't have enough time to do a more thorough analysis right now. I'm going to consider things a bit more and try to get a clearer picture before I vote.

Edit: Crossposted with last five posts

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Roa

Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.

We shall see my dear Wizard...

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Valier

We shall see my dear Wizard...

Oh dear. I have never seen Valier this convinced of something. We might have another situation on our hands.

A Roa vs Valier situation, that is.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Cailín, you are so funny.

I have no idea who to vote for. I really hope Azaelia isn't the Seer as I think she won't be back tonight. I'm not the Seer but I'm not about to offer myself as a noble sacrifice yet.

[Celuien]

The deadline draws near, so there isn't time for my ususl elaborate analysis.

Roa:
174: Defends Loki. Says that the EW will pick unlikely GW choices.
200: Does not suspect Loki. Questions Nogrod’s motives in attacking Loki. Votes for Nogrod.
258: States Loki was believable because no one contradicted his claim and because of his timing. Says Nogrod was the one who caused confusion.
274/277: Analysis of Nogrod.
287: More explanation to Fea about Loki. Asks not to vote randomly.
295: Votes Nogrod for the second time.
324/336: Presses Nogrod about his attack on Loki, more explanation of why she finds him suspicious.
493: More about Loki to Fea. Wants to know what Valier is talking about with her theories. Agrees with morm about the narration thing. Wonders why Valier is so eager to be rid of her.
509: Says that Valier’s record is less than stellar. Doesn’t understand suspicion of Alcarillo.

I see nothing here to suggest to me that Roa is the EW. The cannon-fodder theory non-withstanding, I can't see the EW attacking Nogrod as strongly as Roa did very consistently for two days. While Nogrod was a perfect set-up, he also made a dangerous wolf, and losing him would have been a blow to the evil team.

My suspicion of Alcarillo does stem from what happened to the SPM, along with his overly in-character defensiveness. Granted, there's nothing wrong with talking about village affairs, but as both morm and my late husband pointed out, the wolves do not respect village relationships. Talking only about village happenings and connections to the diminishment of wolf-hunting debate is detrimental to finding the wolves and their foul master. And it gives a way to talk, look friendly, and hide in the open without leaving a trail.

I also agree that the narrations should not be taken as clues. That doesn't seem to be the style of our Great Seal.

And, again, the phantom was not the hunter until last night, so Valier's theories about him can't be right. And I'm puzzled by her attack on Roa, who really does not seem suspicious to me. I'll be keeping an eye on her. Two eyes, in fact, when I can spare them.

[Firefoot]

Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad.

I'm almost surprised that no one else has commented on this. Not that I'm trying to make myself look bad, but I haven't really been trying to avoid it, either. I jump on theories that make sense and have some backing. Morm's theory did. I'm also pretty stubborn, which is why once I decided yesterDay that Nogrod was innocent, I stuck with it. Take it as you will.

But I'm really on the run right now, so although I had enough time to read through everything, I don't have any time to comment. I'm going to stick with my instinct and go with

++Eomer

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sorry Firefoot, but you are wrong in this. (Or evil, perhaps.)

Don't want to vote Celuien either.

++VALIER

Attack on Roa seems too weird to me. Seemed to slide into trouble with her thoughts on the phantom and is trying to scramble out of it. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[littlemanpoet]

The evil wizard rung both hands in the night. It was dark save for a single candle, hidden from the eyes of would be snoopers, deep underground. The evil wizard had planned to be the evil wizard even before the title and power had been given. None knew of this secret place.

Things were not going well. Worse, the evil wizard was not sure what the source of the trouble was, other than plain bad luck. Only two werewolves! After all the evil wizard had done right! It was as if something more than luck had been plotting for the evil wizard's demise. The evil wizard poured over the list of living villagers, trying to decide which one would make the best curse in this bad situation.

A chill, dank and dread, came into the room. The evil wizard's spine crawled. The room darkened yet more. The Shadow had come. It whispered chill words

"The deaths are too few. Why?"

The evil wizard's voice shook. "I don't have enough werewolves!"

"What can you not achieve with one curse each night?"

"That other wizard! The cowardly one! The cowardly wizard scried on the first night! As if a warning had come!"

"Sssssss!"

"And the cowardly wizard had a hunter that could kill a werewolf in ways the lorebooks never spoke of!"

"Sssssssssssssss!"

"I am not to blame! I have done all you have said!"

"There are other powers at work here. I can smell it," breathed the Shadow. "The Watchers." The darkness lessened in its intensity for a brief moment, and the evil wizard breathed the easier, wondering what was going on. Then the intensity redoubled. "Ah! The Watchers warned the good wizard! I see the imprint of their glamour still hovering upon that night. The hunter also was specially gifted by them. How dare they!!" The evil wizard covered both ears and shrank away, for the Shadow's last words carried in the small room with a fell echo that threatened to rip the evil wizard's body from soul.

"I - I am doing all you ask!"

"The flagrancies of the Watchers I will revenge. Two curses in addition you will make tonight, by my power." Out of the darkness of the Shadow an arm of malice sprung and enveloped the evil wizard. Cold fell power drenched the evil wizard, who smiled a slow smile as the Shadow left the little room.

"Three curses tonight. It shall be an evil night." The evil wizard's smile spread with a sheen of maliced madness.

*******************

The evil wizard chose the curses for the night: three. The evil wizard was rewarded with two werewolves and one seer ungifted. "Curses!" the evil wizard cried unoriginally. "I wanted three werewolves!" But then the evil wizard thought better of it, and that evil grin spread on the evil wizard's face once again.

*******************

Meanwhile the good wizard thought about the villagers and their behavior of late, and chose one to scry. The result was a new gifted, for the villager was not a werewolf nor the evil wizard, and this villager was gifted as the new hunter.

*******************

The seer dreamed that night in relative peace, and learned of the innocence of a second villager. But suddenly the seer's eyes opened and the realization hit that the seer gift was gone.

******************

The two veteran and two new werewolves were dispatched to kill twice.

[Celuien]

1. Azaelia --> Eomer (Eomer-1)
2. Nilp --> Azaelia (Eomer -1, Azaelia-1)
3. Celuien --> Alcarillo (Eomer-1, Azaelia-1, Alcarillo-1)
4. Diamond --> Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-2, Alcarillo-1)
5. spawn --> Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
6. Thin --> Eomer (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
7. Sleepy --> Fea (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1)
8. Fea --> Roa (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1, Roa-1)
9. mormegil --> Alcarillo (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1)
10. Kath --> Valier (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1, Valier-1)
11. Gurthang --> Azaelia (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1, Valier-1)
12. Valier --> Roa (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1)
13. Cailín --> Celuien (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1, Celuien-1)
14. Kitanna --> Celuien (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1, Celuien-2)
15. Firefoot --> Eomer (Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1, Celuien-2)
16. Eomer --> Valier (Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-2, Celuien-2)
17. Jenny --> Valier (Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-3, Celuien-2)

28 minutes to go...

[JennyHallu]

Time I need to vote:

++Valier for vehement attacks without careful reading of the actual posts and rules beforehand. She's just giving me a nervous feeling...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Here's a point I might not get to make tomorrow. Thinlomien is forever saying "Oh, it looks like the voting's between him and her today" — always giving us a shortlist (well, it happened at least twice!). That looks quite silly, especially the way voting has gone today as a number of people have their necks on the line.

Could this be construed as malicious in any way?

[Kitanna]

Well I've given some thought to all that has happened and I came down to Eomer and Celuien as my top two suspects. Eomer for his cunning ability to double bluff and for Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself. In the end I simply flipped a coin to decide who to vote for.

++ Celuien

Though I defended her and Diamond to begin with when they brought themselves to everyone's attention, when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more.

Oh crude, I need to run so I can't finish my reasoning. Sorry all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea.

[Roa_Aoife]

I had completely missed the points about Celuien! I may have to reconsider voting for Firefoot.

And Cailin, there would be a situation if I took Valier's accusations seriously, but I don't. They don't hold water, so there's no point in me continuing to debate her over them. So don't worry.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I too will have a look at Celuien. I may follow my dear mother and my (apparently not-so-loving) beloved in today's voting. I don't actually feel comfortable voting for Azaelia because it's very easy to get caught up in bandwagons and I don't want to cast what would effectively be a grudge vote.

Back soon!

[mormegil]

I just realized that we haven't really spoken much about Eonwe. I know we've mentioned Sleepy but Eonwe has the same number of posts, 3, so it's something to keep in mind. I never hold with those that are too quiet if you know what I mean not enough information to go on. I expect to see more of him or I will suspect him of hiding behind silence at least Sleepy has given us reasons.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

"pointless arguement"

And I forgot to answer this, not that it makes any difference to your vote now. I consider it pointless in that my books of werewolf lore show that villages can be easily caught up in debating incorrect points to the exclusion of others. I absolutely do not want to be the subject of such a debate - all it does is divert attention from our real targets, the EW and its wolves.

And what would the point be? Other than distracting the village and getting a dead innocent if the debate did turn against me, it would accomplish nothing. So yes, pointless.