Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Lalaith]

I'm sorry, I'm going mad. Where did LMP put that post, I can't find it. *sobs*

[Lalaith]

Ok, found it now. *dries eyes*. Sorry.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ok, found it now. *dries eyes*. Sorry.

Easy now, dear.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hahahahahahahaha!!!!!

About time.

I'm not the EW. I'm not the GW. I'm not anything but a tired young man who wants to settle down in a peaceful village. This dream does not look as if it will come true.

Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I have never had interest in sorcery [see what that means?]

Oh, and the wink was for Lhuna (she knows), and the shield is the shield I wear all the time [in every post].

Phantom, I will miss you so much, my dear brother! You truly were a hero.

And stop accusing my father! I do not think he has been overreacting at all. I'll maybe have something more constructive later; but don't vote for me, because I will die a poor death in the noose and no more, my big blue human eyes gazing sadly at you as if to say "Why? Why'd you kill me?" It makes me weep just thinking about it.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.

Oh, great! According to morm, Eomer is almost always right. Which means that spawn is doomed.

(Maybe this is putting another nail in her coffin) But I do believe her to be innocent. She's making sustance filled posts, and I agree with a lot of what she says. Particularly her points against Celuien in post #401. Those were more or less my thoughts when I read Celuien's post.

morm, your post above intrigues me. Mainly because I see brilliance in it. I didn't think it was like you to make a case against someone on the flimsy evidence you had against Eomer, and now I see you wanted to get some reactions from it. This makes me think you are innocent. Eomer, well, I agree about (being uneasy about him), but I'm not eager to lynch him toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

It's a good tactic and one that has caught out a lot of people in the past. Apparently, everyone has forgotten that Mormegil thought I looked innocent before.

And another thing: why have a couple of people said that I'm nearly always right when Naria's guilt contradicts this? I don't get it.

I have an utterly flimsy case for someone being the EW. I'm almost too embarrassed to state it.

(It's Fea, by the way.)

[mormegil]

I meant to comment on Nilp but sadly I must commonly post in a piece-wise manner as I get interupted at work. However Nilp seems surprising insightful and helpful. Could this mark a change? I don't know how to feel about this but everything feels innocent.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Eomer, well, I agree about (being uneasy about him), but I'm not eager to lynch him toDay.

Nor I and he becoming more and more innocent feeling with each post though I'm intrigued to here his fea EW theory.

I must stress however that because somebody feels innocent today does not mean that they will be tomorrow. This is a different dynamic and we all have a habit of thinking that because somebody is innocent at one point that continues...until the EW us rooted out we won't have any static condition.

[JennyHallu]

I find Diamond's readiness to jump to the assumption that the wolves know eachother's identities somewhat disturbing. It is possible, yes, but I don't think Nogrod's attack of Loki shows it. Say Noggie was wolvish night one (probably so, as people found him odd right away): Loki revealed himself as the changed wolf, no one contradicted his claim...it was logical therefore for a wolf to turn opinion against someone who would otherwise be a known innocent.

I also find Lalaith's Saucie-as-changed-wolf option to be odd, because if that were so, I doubt Saucie would have been as ready to advise the village to look askance at the group of players he did, because he would have known the wolf was as likely to select loud players (and now we know quiet players) as anyone else.

As for any suspicions of me...I'm innocent, have been innocent, and Eru willing, shall remain innocent. My vote for Saucepan day 1 was based on the fact that I disagreed with his list, and feared the consequences of knocking so many villagers off the list of whom we looked at. Time has only proved me right: neither Nogrod nor Naria were on Saucie's list.

EDIT: X'd with Eomer, twice, whom I shall not discuss now. Not sure where I stand, and don't want to clutter the village with half-baked thoughts.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

It's too early for me to start making an overall analysis of the Village since so few has posted toDay, and anyone of the villagers can be the one whom the EW picked last Night. So, I'll just point out some oddities from toDay.


1) Morm's post #372
"The wolves probably don't know who each other is and therefore may actually vote for their fellows. I realize that this includes me but it must be said."

I get what he's trying to say, but that's just a lovely way to put it. Enhancing the fact that you bring out a theory against the Wolves (that others have already mentioned) which includes yourself is an old trick to polish the halo above one's head.


2) Celuien's post #378
(In addition to her post #362 which I commented in my post #401.)
"But if you're [mormegil] right, particularly about Eomer being awfully accurate, what does that say about Lalaith? I believe he repeatedly mentioned her as a probable EW pick."

Well, what would it say? That either Lalaith is a Wolf or then she's not. I don't like it when people poll each other without giving their own thoughts. It's just too handy for the baddies to search for possible bandwagonees and people against whom it would be safe to make cases.


3) Fea's post #384
Nilp (or Adam?) said: "Maybe he's [EW] picking from the Ns. You've [Nilp] been cursed, haven't you?"

Fea made a response: "Conspiracy theorist that I am... why does this strike me as trying to kill the shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration? I've denied the 'L's, so now it's 'N's? "

A conspiracy theorist or not, I find it odd that Fea took the quote to be directed to her.


4) Zali's post #387
"He [Eomer] also doesn't seem to be giving much thought to "if I were the good wizard".(though that could be deliberate--he, like others, may just be trying to throw the focus off the GW)"

Why would people say out loud what they would do if they were the GW?

"I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling."

This just doesn't make sense at all. It's a nice attempt to shift blame to others, though. Those who just go with a ready theory and refuse to take responsibility for their vote (like Oddwen yesterday) make me very uneasy.

She votes for Eomer, and let's see what happens after that...

"I hope you all can forgive me for an unfortunate double case of RLcoincidenceopia and TimeZoneitis, and for not giving Eomer the chance to defend himself."

"This is not the way I prefer to play, and I apologize."

"Again, apologies, all."

"I'm really sorry."

Apologizers creep me out. You can consult your lorebooks to find out why.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.

I'm devastating?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You know not the power you have, Spawn. That post about Celuien? Brilliant stuff, very biting. You are extremely persuasive.

And very nice observation on Fea. Could be nothing or could be a slip.

I'm off to do some more reading.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Actually, Spawn, your considerations overlap with my major thought of yesterday (which has only been strengthened by what has happened thus far today).

Put short: I'm pretty sure that one of our dearest villagers is hiding a sorcerous secret. Whether good or evil, I genuinely can't decide. But might it be in the interests of the village if the GW comes forward now or tomorrow? If the EW challenges the GW today then the village is left with a Seer and 2 wolves (3 tomorrow) and a huge number of innocents. If tomorrow, then the village will have (probably) a Seer, a Guardian, a whole lot of innocents and (probably) 3 wolves.

It's just the numbers game. We have been fortunate enough to catch 2 wolves already. Going into Day Four and having a couple of gifteds and the standard number of wolves gives us a huge numbers advantage.

I say this because I'm not sure whether I should make my accusation in public, if she does turn out to be good.

But what the hey! I could be the GW and you're very happy to accuse me of EW-ness.

Hmm? There are numerous clues (which I'm not sure, come to think of it, the EW would leave — unless, as Mormegil suspects, the EW is extremely brash).

[Lalaith]

The Fea thing: I think the original alliteration stuff about the Ls was directed at her so it's not really surprising she took the Ns personally as well.

I've read through everything posted today. Here's what I think now.

1. Naria was the wolf created last night. I was trying to think who this wolf might be, and I thought, someone who has not yet been suspected, and someone very unlike Noggie, who the villagers had just unveiled. Naria fits that bill.
Plus, what wolf would the Great Seal pick to be the wolf killed by the Hunter? Makes sense to have it the most recent wolf.(...hope you don't find me presumptious or insolent as to your motivation, O Great Seal, it's just my humble theory...)
So that means that we have a Night One wolf still with us, and the other wolf is a Night Two wolf.
I was really hoping that I could come to the conclusion that both the Night One wolves were now dead, because I don't want to have to go back to read all that Day One stuff again. Sigh. But I fear that is not the case.

2. Call me stubborn but I still don't think Loki was the changed wolf. I can see why the EW would pick him but not the GW.

Jenny, I get your point about Saucie being the changed villager. But logically, I needed to consider all options.

As for the identity of the EW, I agree that this is more important than finding wolves as he is the source of all wolvery. I'm inclined to trust Morm being innocent right now, but that doesn't mean I'm convinced by Eomer theory. And I don't have any real EW theories of my own, although I can give you a list of people I really hope aren't the EW.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

About the alliteration joke, it was indeed just a bit of in-character goofing off. Perhaps I shouldn't try to joke before bed any more.

In any case, this is a rushed post before I go off to get a few [shepherdessing] things done.

Given the dynamics of this game, my next statements only apply to RIGHT NOW.

I don't want us to lynch mormegil, Eomer, or Cailin.

I'll elaborate later. I plan to follow in footsteps and do my own character analyses. But not until after I run some errands and actually eat a real meal for the first time in a few days... amazing just how tired you get when you forget to eat real food. Be back later...

Edit: crossed with LMP onward. I'm an EW? Do tell.