Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Sorry Morm, but this village is monstrous in size. We're probably going to reach about 40 pages before the end so chin up, sir!

O Saucepan Man, I mourn your death. Whatever will become of your beautiful family; and what of the essential public house! Truly, this is cause for sadness.

Now, onto business. My initial thoughts on the kill are in line with my dear mother Cailín, but I am interested (as always) to hear what theory my brother The Phantom has up his sleeve. I can't see how this kill is a masterpiece of wolvish strategy. In fact, I think this was a strange kill from the wolves' point of view. Saucepan Man was always unlikely to be given a gift, and he was always likely to be a lynching-candidate and a Seer dream. Yes, he adds so much intelligence to the discussion; but I wonder whether this was a snap-decision from the wolves, made without too much thought. Maybe I'm not seeing this aright, but were I a wolf I would certainly not have murdered Saucepan Man.

Strange.

While I thought that Loki was innocent, I don't think his innocence should give the village carte blanche to slay the Loki bandwagon. Strategy today requires careful deliberation, and we shouldn't just assume that the wolves had something to do with the death of the first innocent.

Diamond, you weren't on my list of wolves because I can see you getting lynched very early. Sorry, but that's the truth.

Gurthang, I did indeed think some of the early votes were inappropriate. The vote for Lommy, somewhat, because I think she's always prime lynching material and wouldn't be picked to be a wolf. But (and you're absolutely right!) especially Lhuna's vote for me. My survival chances are among the lowest of anyone in this village: there is no way the EW is picking me to be a wolf.

Maybe Lhuna senses evil lurking somewhere within me ( ) but she's mistaken. I have never attempted to learn sorcery and I never will. Not my cup of tea.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I agree with Alcarillo, and not just because he's never done anything wrong in his life before (I mean, just look at his wife and offspring — what a champion!)

He would not have wanted to kill SPM to get this unwanted attention. It would have been so much easier for him to lie low for many days yet. That's why Jenny is likely not a wolf either. Of course, either one could be the third wolf who was outvoted, but I'm pretty much dealing with chances and statistical probability here.

Now:

SPM's list of EW's wolf picks overlaps with mine quite a bit. He has: Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia, Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.

SPM made sure to let Oddwen off the hook because of her no-vote and how it would be conspicuous for a wolf to do that. Now he's dead. Significant?

Anyway, I let the following off the hook: Firefoot (because she's a likely Seer dream), Diamond (who will get herself lynched by being loud and troublesome ), Valier, Naria and Azaelia (the quiet, shady, lynchable types) Alcarillo (as stated above), and Cailín (simply because I would not see her lynched and I would die for her).

The more I think about it the more I realise that sweet Kitanna would be a brilliant pick from the EW.

But I'm not choosing her. And I'm not choosing Celuien either, poor woman, she'd never murder her husband — surely. So, if SPM was onto something (and let's be honest: if he was way off then the wolves would not have picked him) and that's why he lies dead, I would pick a lynching candidate from the following:

Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa or Gurthang. Two wolves in that lot!

[Cailín]

I have been thinking some more on possible wolves…

Both other lynching candidates yesterDay seem unlikely choices for the EW. Lommy's flip-flopping style is well known, which always makes her a suspicious character early on in the game and while Nogrod's intelligence is acknowledged by us all, his controversial tactics tend to get him in trouble. If I were the Evil Wizard, I would choose neither (sorry). And of course, after yesterDay's events, I would not choose any of those gathering many votes.

So who could be the wolves then?

I doubt that either Lhuna or Nilp are wizards - because of timezones and just general lack of time. However, in a large village such as this one, Lhunardawen would be a defendable original wolf choice. I'd stay away from Nilp, who is really too insane to be trusted, even after seeming sensible yesterDay.

Other original choices, and this list is similar to Saucy's, might include Firefoot, Lalaith, Gurthang, Caranlondien, Celuien, possibly Roa, Diamond or Kath. The first five are people who usually manage to stay alive for a pretty long time and often have a key part in victory either way. Diamond and Kath are less 'safe' options, but both can be dangerous wolves.

Also, though both Eomer and Phantom will disagree with me, I do think it is possible the EW might have turned one of those with a bad reputation, just for tradition's sake. I don't suppose it is the phantom - at least not from the start - but Eomer, Spawn or Feanor I would not so easily disregard. However, I consider those mentioned above to be the wiser and more obvious choices.

After yesterDay, I should think the EW would have chosen someone inconspicuous last Night. Numbers, not the composition of the team, are probably most important to him at the moment. Someone like Kitanna perhaps? Or one of those who firmly established their innocence yesterDay? At least not someone from Eomer's list of possibilities, especially if we may assume that those are indeed the people the EW first considered.

Much depends, however, on who the Evil Wizard is. We all approach the game in a different matter. While some people may use cold, hard logic in their choices of minions, others may be driven by feelings of friendship and family.

And as for who the wizards might be, I have made a list of possibilities but that I shall keep to myself for a while. It is not really helpful and I think we will all more or less come to the same conclusions in that respect anyway. That does not mean I am not still looking for the source of all these monsters.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim...and let's be honest: if he was [I

way[/I] off then the wolves would not have picked him...

Exactly! There are many, many villagers to be feared for their skills if innocent. Short list - you, tp, Fea, Caran, Morm, and many others. So I think that he must have been on to something that the foul beasts did not want him to pursue further to tip the balance to choosing him instead of, say (activates spinning ale bottle), the phantom. Remember - SPM did earn two votes yesterday, and if the wolves wanted him dead, they might have tried to build off the suspicion that earned him those votes yesterday and had us do their dirty work while they hid, laughed, and watched.

I don't discount that this death could have been a random pick from the prominent villagers, or that he might have been killed just because he was so greatly to be feared as an innocent. And I know that no secret discussions went on to strategize about his death. But, though I don't know how the mechanics of last night's voting worked, I do know that he managed to catch attention from one of the wolves or he wouldn't have died.

Much has happened since I went away. I've only skimmed it so far, and will have to take a closer look.

Incidentally, I will be keeping the Salty Seal open for business. I think that the SPM would have wanted it that way.

Back later...

[Nogrod]

We surely talk here... (it took me almost an hour to just update myself with everything written after I left)

I'm going to go back and see a couple of things about yesterday too. But before that just a few thoughts about the wizards & the wolves.

The wizards are the clue of this game. Thence lmp must have been pretty thoughtful when picking them. He would not have chosen people who'd be raising suspicions. It would increase the possibility of either one being revealed and the game changing into a normal WW-game just too soon. He would really like to see, how the wizards actually play.

The EW's initial picks as wolves probably follow the same lines of thought as lmp's wizard choice. Three silent, under-radar types would serve the EW best in the beginning: giving them a working-peace to do her/his bidding in the chaotic rushing around the loudmouths of the first couple of days (just look at the voting stats: most votes for Loki, myself, Lommy and even Spm - not the silent ones...). That's why I'm still quite unsure about Loki being the double choice (his newbieness would be the only reason to pick him, I suppose).

But the third one from last night is a different choice. It would be intelligent from the EW to have taken now someone with a higher profile - as we probably should start to look for the more silent ones... But that one should also be one that hasn't roused suspicion - or at least not too much, or too serious.

And why Spm last night? I would go for them just eliminating a good player out from the game. If Spm was up to something real, it might have been too risky to go after him. But then again, if there was something, the wolves might have been afraid that there could be more the next day? Must see to that too.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Okay, why Sauce?

There was no Seer on Day 1, so the Wolves didn't work on the basis to try to catch a Gifted. I also doubt that they tought Sauce to be the GW. If Sauce suspected someone correctly, it's not because he would have had more information than the rest of us, but because of his own logics. The Wolves knew that, and Sauce's death seems to tell less than deaths in normal Wolf-possessed Villages.

Originally Posted by Cailín

The kill, however, tells us little enough: it was not the result of careful planning and discussions -for our wolves cannot do this-

That's true. If the Wolves didn't unanimously pick Sauce, the one who picked someone else is probably looking for reasons for his/her comrades' choice trying to identify them. If we can identify them first, it'd be great because if we don't lynch a Wolf toDay, there will be 2 kills a Night from now on. As has been said toDay, we should probably give some thought on who the Wolves could be, too, and not just the EW.

Killing Sauce could have been a more or less random choice. It's great to have him on your side, but he can be a scary opponent. Maybe the Wolves wanted to take care of a possible threat in the future. That doesn't point at anyone in particular.

Even though Sauce wasn't a Seer, if he was right about something, he would have had the potential to make a good case against his supects with possibly bad consequences to the Evil team. In this case, we should look at those who were on his list of possible EW picks.

As I noted yesterDay, to me Sauce seemed surprisingly confident about how the EW would act.

Originally Posted by Sauce

Yet it is not village affairs that have guided the Evil Wizard’s hand, I am sure, but cold, hard logic.

There are more in his post #144. He also gave a lot of names as possible EW's choices. Maybe the Wolves were on the list and got scared, or then Sauce was way off and killing him was supposed to throw us completely off track. That would incriminate the people whom I already mentioned or those whom he excused yesterDay. Uh, that's about everyone in this village...

So, I'll move on to giving thouhts on my fellow villagers as soon as I can.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The consensus seems to be that the GW doesn't want to scry people who are likely Wolf kills or people who manage to get themselves lynched. The EW or his picks won't be certain people because they are likely Seer dreams or they, too, could get themselves lynched during Day. If this affects the Seer's dreaming choices, s/he might not dream of those who would be natural options in any other Village thus making them safe picks for the EW. I'm not speculating how the Good team should act, far from it, but it might be a good thing if we villagers wouldn't completely rule out different options.

I'm wary of those who seem to be helpful suggesting what to do, but do not show example or give possible names by themselves. YesterDay it was Lhuna. Today Lommy acts quite similarly. Yes, there are timezone issues. Lommy's post was made in the morning, so she might not have had much time, but apparently she had time enough to make a scheme about how we should act today. Keeping that in mind, I would have liked to hear more, how she, for example, is defining EWish/ Wolvish behaviour.

Originally Posted by Eomer

So, if SPM was onto something (and let's be honest: if he was way off then the wolves would not have picked him) and that's why he lies dead, I would pick a lynching candidate from the following:

Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa or Gurthang. Two wolves in that lot!

Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.

"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117

Anyway, I rather agree on some of your choices, Eomer.


edit: I see that Lommy has posted again, so I'll take my words back concerning her - for now.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I'm wary of those who seem to be helpful suggesting what to do, but do not show example or give possible names by themselves. YesterDay it was Lhuna. Today Lommy acts quite similarly. Yes, there are timezone issues. Lommy's post was made in the morning, so she might not have had much time, but apparently she had time enough to make a scheme about how we should act today. Keeping that in mind, I would have liked to hear more, how she, for example, is defining EWish/ Wolvish behaviour.

Yes, in the morning after I had woke up and done my usual morning things I had 1/2 hour time before going to steal candy (=school) so I had just the time to skim through today's posts and write my own.

Err... Spawn I hope you have good intentions but I'm not sure of it. I don't think it'd be very wise from me to publish the signs I'm looking after: that'd only make the wolves avoid falling to those. Besides, I'm sure it would cause discussion on the topic and that would make even more profit to the wolves to hear all villagers' tricks to catch wolves. So, no thanks.

Mrs. Felagund, is there anything you wish to confess?

edit: xed with Gurthang

[JennyHallu]

Hello again...

I may never have much liked my brother-in-law, but I stand with my sister to mourn his passing. Celuien, dear, use a hankie. Naria, since your sister's off gallivanting with that boy, maybe you could...um...clean up the kitchen a bit. Put some of those saucepans away, maybe.

The village seems to have gained some direction today, focussing on who would be a clever pick of the Wizards. I am afraid I would knock Caranlondien off of the likely-wolf list, though. While my lorebooks show her ancestors as wise and learnèd villagers, a wolvish ancestor could only be categorized as somewhat...jumpy. I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves. He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.

As such, I agree with many of the people on likely good wolf/gifted choices, but with one twist. Most people yesterday seemed to doubt Loki's claim on the assumption that the Wizards would be going for the same people, and Loki appeared on no one's mental list of likely "cursees".

But our Wizards are no doubt intelligent and well-versèd in werewolf lore, and it would surely occur to both of them that the wise among the villagers would have such a hit-list prepared, and that these choices would probably be much the same for either. For that reason, it does not seem at all unlikely that both Wizards might have made a selection meant to sidestep both the predictions of the village and their counterpart. Loki's claim rang true to me just because it seemed so unlikely.

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.

And: Lal and a phantom, both of you have shown incredible sense and judgement (especially the incorporeal one), and are therefore in my mind prime lynch candidates. Are your secret theories and assumptions so sensitive that it is worth the chance they are lost to the village?

[Nogrod]

=Jenny
I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves.

This is a case in point, as we still have to remember the wolves being hand-picked. My deficient lorebook comes up with two over all the others (playing well and been wolves for many times), the ancestors of Roa and Jenny. You others who have played more should see your books for others this way highly qualified. Even though, it can be maintained, that also this "fame" might just be a reason for the wizard not to pick these people up in the first place.

He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.

This is very helpful indeed. So: about anyone...

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.

I still think, that the first picks would be more likely somewhat on the under-radar -side, but the third one could already be different.


Some preliminary thoughts after running through yesterday's posting.

Nicely unseen / not suspicious enough to come lynched during the first days ie. the possible "original duo":
Caran, Valier, Kitanna, Eonwe, Lalaith

Good candidates for EW to pick as the third one (seem to have been mainly trusted by all on DAY1):
Eomer, Phantom, Fea, Spawn, Firefoot

I know, that this kind of lists are - as yet - quite random, but there's the direction I'm looking at right now: reasonable picks having a bit different basis before DAY1 and DAY2.

[Roa_Aoife]

OOC Getting this post in- Sorry I'm late but last night involved a rather lengthy discussion with my parents and my new fiancé (they just found out.) So, this is quick, and I haven't read all the way through, but I'll be back with more this time, I promise! OOC

I don't know why you believe Loki and I are friends in RL, Diamond, but as for my reasons for believing him innocent, I laid those out already. However, for the sake of expediency- Loki's claim was believable

a. Because no one contradicted him. In the case of a villager turned wolf turn villager, there would really be nothing to fear from coming forward, so the fact that Loki was the only one who made the claim added to his believability.

b. His timing. Why come forward right away with this information unless it is true? A wolf certainly would not want to attract attention like that. He had no reason to do so unless it was the truth and he wanted the village to know immediately.

c. Lying wouldn't be that plausible. It would be easy for someone to contradict him. As I said yesterday, that move is far too bold for even me.

d. If he had been believed rather than immediately attacked for his claim *coughcoughNogrodcoughcough*, it wouldn't have caused confusion but clarity- we would have a known innocent and so could look elsewhere for lynching.

Given all of this, I would say it was Nogrod who started the confusion, not Loki.

Also, since a question of my connection to Loki arises, if I were a wizard and Loki was my friend, do you really think that I would pick him on that alone? Give me some credit- I'm a little more subtle than that. But as for the nature of our relationship, Loki is not my friend in RL. Just so ya'll know.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm sad that Loki had to go. I for myself tried to get him lynched yesterday, as I was myself being bandwaggoned and he was the second one in the line.

This statement has me wondering- you admit to bandwagoning, but you give an odd reason for it. You were certainly throwing suspicion on Loki from your first post. And your reasons were terrible. I'd have to say that you were the driving force behind Loki's lynching, not after you were on the kill list, but from the very beginning.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Concerning the EW. S/he would do well to enlist people who are not the primary targets / most vocal ones (as they are in most cases the first to be lynched.

Nice blanket statement- certainly throws suspicion off you almost immediately.

I'll have a more in-depth analysis later.

Originally Posted by Morm

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki. He screamed innocence to me and I do believe he was the double pick of the night. I do not know this for certain but his claims rang true in my ears. I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him. I haven't decided yet if I believe the EW is in the group of votes for him or not. Lalaith's 'cannon fodder' idea makes great sense and that is why I consider that to be a possibility.

Major dido to Morm.

[Oddwen]

*walks in, a purloined chicken under each arm*

I am in agony. So much to read through, and so little time for me to decide what to do!

Originally Posted by Cailin

She's odd.

Never heard *that* before.

Gah! So much talk, and yet so little to glean!

Just hit me - the Wolves don't know who each other are, this means they aren't certain who's innocent either. I personally would like to see the wizards gone, only because it would be less confusing for me. (A selfish wish indeed, I fear).

I'm going to go brush my teeth, and try to come up with a vote. It'll be the only time I can, because those chickens won't catch themselves.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Lommy, making polls about what other people find suspicious makes me uneasy, too, for the reasons you mentioned (more to be found in various lorebooks). What I was expecting from you was your own thoughts of Villagers. The scheme seems helpful, but have you tried it yourself? If yes, did you manage to divide people to those different groups that you spoke of? I think that kind of discussion and analysing the villagers in general would be most useful in catching the baddies.


Something in Lalaith is making me uneasy. I've tried analysing her posts, but I guess it's just the general impression than anything she'd have said directly that has caught my attention. Still, I'll take a moment to comment her posts.

#176 - the cannon fodder theory. The villager who was chosen by both Wizards is someone who'd make a good Seer.

I don't know if there is a villager who would at the same time be a good cannon fodder and Seer. The theory of making an expendable Wolf is interesting and something that the EW might try at some point, but considering that his/her job is to make as many wolves as s/he can, I don't think that sacrificing a wolf would be very profitable now that it's easy to hide among the masses.

#178 - asks when the sun will go down.

#180 - still confusion about the deadline, votes for Loki because he filled the criteria of her cannon fodder theory.

She tied Loki with Nogrod giving him a fifth vote.

#246 - several questions about rules.

Hmm, your ancestor suspected mine once for asking questions... should I suspect you?

- Says Sauce's death can be simply explained although then she wonders if she and phantom are thinking along the same lines. She will keep her thoughts to herself, though. Says that no one is suspecting phantom, and she doesn't either although then she starts browsing old lorebooks.

Are you saying that there might reason to suspect phantom after all? As to the lorebooks, I kind of warned the Village about same thing yesterDay, but whatever.

- Doesn't agree with Di and Fea, and thinks that revealing the GW is a silly plan. Suspects Diamond for bad taste in music?

Would it be possible for you to give the quotes from Di and Fea? I'd appreciate that. Anyway, phantom has been pretty vocal about the benefits of the GW revealing themselves soon, so is there some reason why you chose to pick those two ladies?

"The wolves - there were only two last night and presumably they either came, via their mod, to some arrangement, or the EW picked one of their two choices, or the EW may even have made a few suggestions to them regarding their kill, if such things are permissible." ~Lalaith

According to the rules:

Order of Night Activities:
1. Evil wizard picks whom to curse.
...
7. Werewolves pick whom to kill.

I understand it that way that there were three Wolves making the decision of the kill.


I need a break. I'll be back later.

edit: some cross-posting.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.

"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117

I agree with his assessment. Though if she is a wolf, his excuse of her no vote would have made him a safer target for her. I'll move her to the bottom of the list of candidates who might well be the original two wolves, but will remain wary of her.

I most likely will not vote for Alcarillo. I'm thinking that it would have brought a lot of attention to him to have killed SPM. But again, I'm still wary of a bluff, so while I'll pass for today, he is staying high on my list of those who I'll be keeping a close eye on. He currently ranks just above Oddwen in my mind.

Lommy seems less suspicious today. She's making more sense, and I rather like her flowchart.

And I still trust my father Morm. Likewise about the phantom, spawn, and Eomer. Nogrod speaks sensibly, so I would, again, be disinclined to vote for him.

Nilp is more difficult to get a handle on, due both to personality and time-zone disease, but because he strikes me as a very poor EW pick and because nothing is really striking me as furry, I don't think think he's cursed.

Sleepy, Valier, Roa and Kitanna I can't tell much about yet because they fall into the quiet category.

The only thing I have against Lhuna is her call for the GW to declare from yesterday. That issue has been discussed by me and by others, so I won't go into the reasons I think that's a bad idea right now. And again, she seems to be a riskier EW pick, so she doesn't take a prominent place on my list of suspects. I think she does, however, bear some observation. Similar reasoning applies to Fea.

The Lady Battledore doesn't seem wolvish. Too likely to get herself lynched the way she goes around swatting everyone with her handywork.

Which leaves me with a large contingent of intermediately chatty villagers whom I just don't know about one way or the other (read - everyone whose name isn't mentioned above or on SPM's list, which I'll get to in a minute).

So back to Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa and Gurthang.

Oddwen I've already discussed. Gurthang has been relatively quiet, which makes me uneasy, but what he has said doesn't strike me as wolvish. Besides, he agrees with the phantom about the wizards, which seems to be a good thing. Caran has been on the right side of the GW revealing debate () and generally making sense. While she could be a wolf using sensible behavior as cover, I'm inclined to trust her for now. Roa defended Loki yesterday, and turned out to be right. She suspected those who were eager to see him gone and voted for Nogrod on that basis. My lorebooks say that her ancestors have been sensible and intelligent, and very effective at hiding as wolves until cornering made them defensive. I can't tell, however, if she suspicious or not just now. As for Lalaith, she had a very interesting interpretation in post #176 about the EW making cannon fodder wolves for the purpose of revealing them to earn village trust, then voted for Loki. It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Hmm. And that didn't get me very far in my reasoning, did it? If the EW did pick from among those 5, it was a wise choice, because they are quite effective at deflecting suspicion.

I now have both good news and bad news. The good news is that the morning Cupper's convention was canceled, which allowed me to remain with my excellent and admirable fellow villagers these last few hours. The bad news is that afternoon sessions are still scheduled, and I don't know how far into the evening they are going to last, so my vote will need to come soon lest I risk returning the the village too late.

Expect the vote in the next couple of hours.

[Diamond18]

Aha!

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But we have a second downside here too. As the wolves (probably) don't know each other, we can't track their mutual posting! That struck me today. We are totally at loss with any wolf-scheming, if they do not know each other. In many games I've been in, we have had lots of material to speculate over, as we have thought about them as werecreatures making comments while knowing each other - and knowing the innocents. That has lead to a many a wolf's death, but now we probably don't have that chance (or then the EW is a stupid person).

So. No steady roles (one might be converted in the middle of the game), no wolf-talk in the game (as they can't do it)... That's looking bad, as I said this earlier in the discussion thread (agreeing with Loki here). We are really in trouble.

Yeah, I was going to bed, but it kept nagging at me so I looked it up. In that same post, he also went on about the EW picking players who are quiet to be wolves -- which, obviously, would have discounted him! So we know Nog was all about stating the opposite of truth at that point. The question is, did anyone else make similar posts talking up the importance of the Wolves not knowing each other?