Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

The other thing is that, with the exception of the couple of individuals that the GW scries, s/he is not actually going to know a whole lot more about the status of individual players than the rest of the innocents, which makes me a little leary of just letting the GW lead the charge.

You are 100% right that the GW, at first, won't know much more than a common villager. The advantage to him coming forward soon isn't that he'll know who to lynch- it's that he'll know who not to lynch.

He can put forward two or three safe candidates and allow the village to debate about which one to lynch. The following day, he can reuse one of the previous day's candidates and run a second candidate against him. If the GW gave us too large a lynch list or used too many different people, the Wolves and EW would soon be able to figure out who the gifteds were, which is a bad thing. Because of that, the GW would keep the lynch list very short and not throw on too many different names. Of course, that would pretty much guarantee that the EW would not curse someone from the lynch list, but at the same time the GW won't be scrying them either, making it slightly more likely that he'd scry the same villager as the EW.

Originally Posted by Naria

The lorebook doesn't have much information(for me) about the phantom so I can't really say how he normally acts, but I find his decisive and firm belief in how the EW and the GW are/would play to be rather disturbing.

That's what I'm always like, Naria. I put myself in the shoes of whoever I'm trying to predict, figure out what the most logical course of action for them is, and then I say it (and I often say it quite decisively).

As you can imagine, the ones who fool me the most are those who don't play the percentages and don't behave logically. However, doing things like that often gets them killed, so really I don't mind my opponents fooling me because they are usually killed for their disregard for rational playing techniques.

Originally Posted by Naria

I'm not saying that I don't agree with his points(I do)

Glad to hear it.

Originally Posted by Naria

but how can someone be so sure

Because.

Originally Posted by Celuien

which is why I wonder if the EW would risk exposure by openly defending a transformed villagers

Who knows? There's no need to take a risk when the EW can just create another wolf at night, but then again- if the EW makes a strong defense of a wolf and then it is found out that the person was indeed a wolf through lynching, many people might think- "Um, I don't think the EW would've been defending that wolf so heavily, it's not worth the risk, therefore so-and-so probably isn't the EW."

Originally Posted by Caran

Knowing the identity of the GW will also help the EW's team. They'll scour the GW's posts for clues as to the identities of the gifteds

I don't think so.

Only a fool of a Good Wizard would allow his posts to point to his gifteds. As I said earlier, the strategy of the revealed GW would not be to defend the known innocent, but to lynch the known wolves (or, at the worst, lynch innocents that he doesn't know are innocents).

The GW would put forward his lynch candidates, and any member of the village who tried really hard to put forth someone of their own choosing would get a response from the GW such as "That person isn't on my list. Shut up."

Attacking people not on the GW's approved lynch list is the same thing as an attempt to get the GW to defend someone, thus revealing to the EW and the Wolves a gifted villager.

Now, that isn't to say everyone can't give their suspicions. Naturally, the GW and Seer will read what everyone has to say and take all opinions into consideration for the nightly scry/dream, but being allowed to state opinions and refusing the leadership of the GW are two completely different things.

The GW and his gifteds are our salvation. Once he is revealed, it will be in our best interest not to argue with him or his lists, because he knows more than a common villager. Should we give our opinions? Certainly! He will use them in helping him decide which individuals to scry and move onto the lynch list, but we shouldn't demand that he change his list or anything. Disobeying him might lead to the accidental discovery of gifteds.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Day One, usually, is a nightmare to live through but it is useful in retrospect, to analyse voting patterns. Not so this time - as the wolves have no more idea of anything than the rest of us.
The only person who knows who the wolves are, is the EW. S/he is therefore the only person to leave a voting trail. So what better, on the first night, than to create cannon fodder?
I mean, create a wolf for no other reason than to play a vital role in getting him lynched, and thereby devolve suspicion from yourself. Maybe not today, but soon.
Oh, and if I were GW, I would be looking, on the first night, not to find the EW but to clone myself - that is, to get myself a Seer.
So I think that the changed wolf was someone who would also make a good Seer.

Very good stuff, Lalaith.