Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Celuien]

Nilp didn't vote for himself? I think I'll faint.

Some interesting things have happened since I was away. Will return in a bit with thoughts.

[Lhunardawen]

I shouldn't even be here this late. Next time I hope you're ready for really early votes. Like seven hours into the game.

Now, hmm. I'm tempted to vote for Nilp 'cause he voted for my dad. That, and he didn't vote for himself.

Aha!

++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

because he has a great propensity for evil. And he left me just when I was prepared to marry him. Take this!

[The Saucepan Man]

This is a terrible blow to our village, and my thoughts are with Diamond18 and her kin. A sad loss indeed. And now, we have to do our best to find the culprits, as the Watchers have bade us do. I am sorry that I have not been able to contribute so far, but my duties at the tavern have kept me busy.

I bid you all come to the Salty Seal, where we may discuss these things in comfort and with a drink to strengthen our spirits. I shall not charge thee on a day such as this (provided you do not seek to take advantage).

Were I to let petty vengeances guide my thoughts, I would be looking towards mormegil and Eomer. Mormegil has always thought his daughter too good for a lowly innkeeper such as me and has never approved of the match. And Eomer, the rogue, is presumptious enough to court my beloved daugher, Kitanna, without first seeking my permission.

Yet it is not village affairs that have guided the Evil Wizard’s hand, I am sure, but cold, hard logic. And that is what I intend to use to counter him (or her).

As others have intimated, we must bear in mind that these beasts were not randomly chosen, as in the tales of old, but hand selected by the Evil Wizard. Were I him, I would not have chosen those who, by virtue of their reputation or ancestry, were likely to be the subject of a Seerish dream on the first Night or who are likely targets for a lynching on the first Day. On this basis, a number of villagers can, I think,be discounted as unlikely choices by the Evil Wizard.

And, much as I would like to see the back of him for his antagonistic behaviour and insufferable gloating, I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard. His reputation, even before this Day, makes him a quite likely candidate for lynching. Then again, one motive for claiming to be the de-Werewolved villager would be to divert attention from himself. If that was his intention, then it has backfired. Nevertheless, I will disegard him for today, based on my reasoning above.

Were I the Evil Wizard, I would have chosen from the following villagers:

Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.

That doesn’t narrow things down as much as I would like. However, I suspect that the Evil Wizard, if applying his or her mind, will have selected villagers with different styles. Based on my knowledge of them, and the tales of their ancestors’ exploits, I would divide them as follows, and assume that the Evil Wizard would select one Wolf from each grouping:

1 of Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien or Celuien
1 of Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, or Alcarillo
1 of Roa, Firefoot, Diamond or Gurthang

One Wolf, we know, was turned back, which paradoxically makes things more difficult, even if my reasoning is on course (and there’s no guarantee that it is, or that the Evil Wizard would think like me).

And of course, that does not help us find the Evil Wizard and I agree that anything that we can do to unmask him (or her) will be worthwhile. More thoughts on that anon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Gurthang was, I think, the first to bring up the idea of looking for the Wizards. My initial reaction was to suspect him for it. I still do, slightly, since he was talking about finding both Wizards. I think we should, as far as we can, try to avoid identifying the Good Wizard, at this stage at least. With no Gifteds and two Wolves to hide among a great number of villagers, the Evil Wizard might fancy his/her chances at this point and call the Good Wizard out. Even if s/he does not, identifying the GW would still allow the EW to pick his/her time, provided s/he remains hidden. For this reason, I am also wary of Lhuna’s suggestion that the GW might want to declare today.

The plan has, however, been somewhat refined since Gurthang’s initial suggestion. As the phantom and others have helpfully pointed out (and it speaks in their favour), the GW and the EW have different objectives, different fears and therefore, in all likelihood, will exhibit different styles.

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

Originally Posted by Caílin

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

This perhaps is the best thing we have to go on at the moment. It applies, of course, to both Wizards, and so we must be careful that it does not lead us to reveal the Good Wizard. Yet each will have been selected to be either Good or Evil, so there may be something to go on here.

I must, alas, depart for a few hours, but I hope to return in a few hours.

[Glirdan]

I am here at last. It's been a long day for myself. Poor Elempi. I couldn't get the picture of his body out of my head so I ran to my favorite thinking spot to cool down.

Now, seeing as I just got here, I really don't know what's going on, excpet that my beloved Kath has been here. But where is she? I don't see her smiling face in the crowd.

But it is getting late for me, so I think I'd better pack myself off to bed before I get grounded. Til tomorrow (RL)!

Ahhh! Now I understand! I suffer from this same fatal illness, which is another reason why I have not come in until now.

Now I see that I have a lot to go over and I shall so I will be back with my thoughts shortly.

[Cailín]

Interesting list, Saucepan Man.

However, we might assume the Evil Wizard does not follow your train of thought. Logically, the Good Wizard would scry those whom he believes likely to be the Evil Wizard. And likely candidates for that profession are generally those you deliberately excluded from your list. At least, that is what I suspect. Since the Good Wizard and the Evil Wizard chose the same person… could it be possible that they indeed would go for those villagers with a horrible reputation haunting them?

I am still trying to come to terms with this all.

In the meantime, how come Nilpaurion did not vote for himself? I find this very worrisome – yet his marriage to fair Dancing Spawn may have given him renewed joy in life.

Lhunardawen is definitely suspicious. The minute Eomer left, she just marries someone from another village and that entirely without my interference. A very displeasing sort of independence. Oh and she made a pitiful suggestion as well.

Edit: cross-posted with Spawn and Lommy.

[Cailín]

I am not really respected? Indeed, what insolence is that?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by spawn

I think that depends on who the EW is. If it is someone who's usually a loudmouth, it would look mighty suspicious if they suddenly started acting very subtly.

A good point I didn't think about. Finding the EW might be even trickier than I imagined it'd be. *sigh*

Cailín's post got me thinking. I know I'm starting my endless flow-of-consciousness posting (or to but it bluntly, flip-flopping) now, but I can't help thinking that the EW might have actually chosen these "big guys" since he/she might predict that we make the kind of assumptions of intelligent-but-not-big-guys -players as I did in my last post. It seems that the theory is quite basic since it occured to me without much thinking, so I think the EW would try to avoid such predictable choices.

If you ask, which of my theories I myself support (which is a fair question) I can say "no idea" since, I need more thinking to find a solution that makes sense. These are just thoughts.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Cailín

However, we might assume the Evil Wizard does not follow your train of thought. Logically, the Good Wizard would scry those whom he believes likely to be the Evil Wizard.

I don't necessarily think so. I'd think the GW would, at first, be concerned with making gifteds that would do their job well. I mean, after all, even if the GW finds the EW, he won't want to challenge him with no gifteds made.

Also, spawn is making some good points about Lhuna. But now I really must go.

[Glirdan]

Glirdan ~ Owl.(Diamond)

This is an interesting thought my friend, however, you are completely mistaken. I do not have wings and I cannot turn my head in a full circle.

Caran ~ The eldest child of Roa and Sleepy, obviously prone to bouts of uncontrollable evil, and with parents like that, who can blame her? Still, she's just your ordinary psychopath. Can't find any traces of fur on her.

Lommy ~ Another one of them Roa/Sleepy spawn. This one's clearly got hair sprouting in all the wrong places.

And why, may I ask, are you attacking my siblings? What has my family ever done to yours to deserve this kind of treatment?

I agree with all those who believe that Loki is quiet...what's the word I'm looking for? Ahh! Yes! Shady.

I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.

I actually must differ on this. Because Loki is a newcommer, it is quite possible that the EW wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt and let him try his hand at having a special role. The GW could very well have predicted this and decided to change him back for this. However, can we take his word that he was the un-changed one? Because I really don't think I can. He's been a little too offensive and all over rules of the game. This makes me very uneasy about him.

I'm off for the time being, but if you need me, don't be hesitant to call.

xed with the three above

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

I think that depends on who the EW is. If it is someone who's usually a loudmouth, it would look mighty suspicious if they suddenly started acting very subtly.

I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.

Well, usually the villagers are ready to give a newcomer the benefit of doubt, a Seer won't usually bother to dream of someone completely new and depending on who the Wizards are, I think it's possible that the idea of making Loki a Wolf intrigued the EW. However, if Loki speaks the truth, I don't have a clue. I could presume that even if he was chosen by the EW, he's not necessarily the one that the GW chose, too.


Aside of Wizard matters, I find there to be something odd in Lhuna's behaviour.
Firstly, I don't agree with her suggestion that the GW might want to reveal themselves now. Well, that's not a crime, per se, I know a lot of people disagree with my logics and may be quite right in doing so, but I think we should even try to find the EW before the GW steps forward. Now that the GW has no Gifteds on his/her side, and there are two wolves among 30 villagers, the numbers wouldn't be very favourable for us.

She poses a question asking for names for possible wolves, but refuses to answer herself. Then she pulls out an example of a situation where a big-name villager was lynched with profitable consequences even though he contributed much. Lhuna wonders if we have the courage to do it in this Village, too. I'm not sure what to think of this. Yes, it's probable that the Wizards are people with some kind of a reputation, and yes, if someone usually helpful Villager looks very suspicious, then it's our duty to try to find out if there's some reason to it regardless of their contributions, but the way Lhuna says this makes me uneasy.

Then she suggests that the GW reveals themselves as soon as they have made three Gifteds. What's the hurry? Let's see what the situation is when we get there. When we don't make any firm plans yet, the Evil team can't base their startegy on the possible flaws of the Good team's plan. A vote follows for Eomer based on astrology, or something, and because of relationships.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, seeing as I just got here, I really don't know what's going on, excpet that my beloved Kath has been here. But where is she? I don't see her smiling face in the crowd.

I believe her dad told her to go to her room.

[Thinlómien]

Alas for the gentle old man! He was one of the few villagers that gave me candy voluntarily!

Remember also that in this game the wizards can choose who fight in their sides. I doubt they'd not choose good players.

If I were the EW I would choose wolves from the intelligent, but not really really respected and feared players. People that wouldn't be suspected because "ah, x is so cunning person, the EW must have chosen him/her" or be lynched because "better to see him/her dead before the EW picks him/her". I would choose players like: Roa (sorry momma), Gurthang, Diamond, Nogrod, Kath, Lhuna, Kitanna, Caílin and Lalaith. I guess I'm along quite the same lines with SPM here (if I understood him correctly).

I agree that we should try to find the EW, but we can't focus our search only on him/her, otherwise he just laughs by him/herself (I agree with the people who say EW will be a quite silent hider) and increases the wolf amount until they kill us all.

One thing I advise people to remember too is that the wolves will be much more difficult to find this time since they can't be caught from slimy co-operation, since they don't know each other.

edit: x-posted with my brother and Mrs. Felagund