Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I've to go, since I've got a memoir to write. It's called the Book of Nilpaurion and it'll be available in bookstores Yavannië neldë.

I'm pretty confident about my vote, though.

++Nogrod

Surprise, surprise! Not a self-vote! See you tomorrow, I hope.

[Celuien]

Nilp didn't vote for himself? I think I'll faint.

Some interesting things have happened since I was away. Will return in a bit with thoughts.

[Lhunardawen]

I shouldn't even be here this late. Next time I hope you're ready for really early votes. Like seven hours into the game.

Now, hmm. I'm tempted to vote for Nilp 'cause he voted for my dad. That, and he didn't vote for himself.

Aha!

++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

because he has a great propensity for evil. And he left me just when I was prepared to marry him. Take this!

[The Saucepan Man]

This is a terrible blow to our village, and my thoughts are with Diamond18 and her kin. A sad loss indeed. And now, we have to do our best to find the culprits, as the Watchers have bade us do. I am sorry that I have not been able to contribute so far, but my duties at the tavern have kept me busy.

I bid you all come to the Salty Seal, where we may discuss these things in comfort and with a drink to strengthen our spirits. I shall not charge thee on a day such as this (provided you do not seek to take advantage).

Were I to let petty vengeances guide my thoughts, I would be looking towards mormegil and Eomer. Mormegil has always thought his daughter too good for a lowly innkeeper such as me and has never approved of the match. And Eomer, the rogue, is presumptious enough to court my beloved daugher, Kitanna, without first seeking my permission.

Yet it is not village affairs that have guided the Evil Wizard’s hand, I am sure, but cold, hard logic. And that is what I intend to use to counter him (or her).

As others have intimated, we must bear in mind that these beasts were not randomly chosen, as in the tales of old, but hand selected by the Evil Wizard. Were I him, I would not have chosen those who, by virtue of their reputation or ancestry, were likely to be the subject of a Seerish dream on the first Night or who are likely targets for a lynching on the first Day. On this basis, a number of villagers can, I think,be discounted as unlikely choices by the Evil Wizard.

And, much as I would like to see the back of him for his antagonistic behaviour and insufferable gloating, I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard. His reputation, even before this Day, makes him a quite likely candidate for lynching. Then again, one motive for claiming to be the de-Werewolved villager would be to divert attention from himself. If that was his intention, then it has backfired. Nevertheless, I will disegard him for today, based on my reasoning above.

Were I the Evil Wizard, I would have chosen from the following villagers:

Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Celuien, Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Firefoot, Diamond and Gurthang.

That doesn’t narrow things down as much as I would like. However, I suspect that the Evil Wizard, if applying his or her mind, will have selected villagers with different styles. Based on my knowledge of them, and the tales of their ancestors’ exploits, I would divide them as follows, and assume that the Evil Wizard would select one Wolf from each grouping:

1 of Cailín, Lalaith, Caranlondien or Celuien
1 of Valier, Kitanna, Azaelia or Naria, Oddwen, or Alcarillo
1 of Roa, Firefoot, Diamond or Gurthang

One Wolf, we know, was turned back, which paradoxically makes things more difficult, even if my reasoning is on course (and there’s no guarantee that it is, or that the Evil Wizard would think like me).

And of course, that does not help us find the Evil Wizard and I agree that anything that we can do to unmask him (or her) will be worthwhile. More thoughts on that anon.

[The Saucepan Man]

Gurthang was, I think, the first to bring up the idea of looking for the Wizards. My initial reaction was to suspect him for it. I still do, slightly, since he was talking about finding both Wizards. I think we should, as far as we can, try to avoid identifying the Good Wizard, at this stage at least. With no Gifteds and two Wolves to hide among a great number of villagers, the Evil Wizard might fancy his/her chances at this point and call the Good Wizard out. Even if s/he does not, identifying the GW would still allow the EW to pick his/her time, provided s/he remains hidden. For this reason, I am also wary of Lhuna’s suggestion that the GW might want to declare today.

The plan has, however, been somewhat refined since Gurthang’s initial suggestion. As the phantom and others have helpfully pointed out (and it speaks in their favour), the GW and the EW have different objectives, different fears and therefore, in all likelihood, will exhibit different styles.

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

Originally Posted by Caílin

What is interesting, however, is that the wizards themselves were chosen and chose to be wizards, too. Something worth remembering, perhaps.

This perhaps is the best thing we have to go on at the moment. It applies, of course, to both Wizards, and so we must be careful that it does not lead us to reveal the Good Wizard. Yet each will have been selected to be either Good or Evil, so there may be something to go on here.

I must, alas, depart for a few hours, but I hope to return in a few hours.

[Glirdan]

I am here at last. It's been a long day for myself. Poor Elempi. I couldn't get the picture of his body out of my head so I ran to my favorite thinking spot to cool down.

Now, seeing as I just got here, I really don't know what's going on, excpet that my beloved Kath has been here. But where is she? I don't see her smiling face in the crowd.

But it is getting late for me, so I think I'd better pack myself off to bed before I get grounded. Til tomorrow (RL)!

Ahhh! Now I understand! I suffer from this same fatal illness, which is another reason why I have not come in until now.

Now I see that I have a lot to go over and I shall so I will be back with my thoughts shortly.

[Cailín]

Interesting list, Saucepan Man.

However, we might assume the Evil Wizard does not follow your train of thought. Logically, the Good Wizard would scry those whom he believes likely to be the Evil Wizard. And likely candidates for that profession are generally those you deliberately excluded from your list. At least, that is what I suspect. Since the Good Wizard and the Evil Wizard chose the same person… could it be possible that they indeed would go for those villagers with a horrible reputation haunting them?

I am still trying to come to terms with this all.

In the meantime, how come Nilpaurion did not vote for himself? I find this very worrisome – yet his marriage to fair Dancing Spawn may have given him renewed joy in life.

Lhunardawen is definitely suspicious. The minute Eomer left, she just marries someone from another village and that entirely without my interference. A very displeasing sort of independence. Oh and she made a pitiful suggestion as well.

Edit: cross-posted with Spawn and Lommy.

[Glirdan]

Glirdan ~ Owl.(Diamond)

This is an interesting thought my friend, however, you are completely mistaken. I do not have wings and I cannot turn my head in a full circle.

Caran ~ The eldest child of Roa and Sleepy, obviously prone to bouts of uncontrollable evil, and with parents like that, who can blame her? Still, she's just your ordinary psychopath. Can't find any traces of fur on her.

Lommy ~ Another one of them Roa/Sleepy spawn. This one's clearly got hair sprouting in all the wrong places.

And why, may I ask, are you attacking my siblings? What has my family ever done to yours to deserve this kind of treatment?

I agree with all those who believe that Loki is quiet...what's the word I'm looking for? Ahh! Yes! Shady.

I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.

I actually must differ on this. Because Loki is a newcommer, it is quite possible that the EW wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt and let him try his hand at having a special role. The GW could very well have predicted this and decided to change him back for this. However, can we take his word that he was the un-changed one? Because I really don't think I can. He's been a little too offensive and all over rules of the game. This makes me very uneasy about him.

I'm off for the time being, but if you need me, don't be hesitant to call.

xed with the three above

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

I think that depends on who the EW is. If it is someone who's usually a loudmouth, it would look mighty suspicious if they suddenly started acting very subtly.

I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.

Well, usually the villagers are ready to give a newcomer the benefit of doubt, a Seer won't usually bother to dream of someone completely new and depending on who the Wizards are, I think it's possible that the idea of making Loki a Wolf intrigued the EW. However, if Loki speaks the truth, I don't have a clue. I could presume that even if he was chosen by the EW, he's not necessarily the one that the GW chose, too.


Aside of Wizard matters, I find there to be something odd in Lhuna's behaviour.
Firstly, I don't agree with her suggestion that the GW might want to reveal themselves now. Well, that's not a crime, per se, I know a lot of people disagree with my logics and may be quite right in doing so, but I think we should even try to find the EW before the GW steps forward. Now that the GW has no Gifteds on his/her side, and there are two wolves among 30 villagers, the numbers wouldn't be very favourable for us.

She poses a question asking for names for possible wolves, but refuses to answer herself. Then she pulls out an example of a situation where a big-name villager was lynched with profitable consequences even though he contributed much. Lhuna wonders if we have the courage to do it in this Village, too. I'm not sure what to think of this. Yes, it's probable that the Wizards are people with some kind of a reputation, and yes, if someone usually helpful Villager looks very suspicious, then it's our duty to try to find out if there's some reason to it regardless of their contributions, but the way Lhuna says this makes me uneasy.

Then she suggests that the GW reveals themselves as soon as they have made three Gifteds. What's the hurry? Let's see what the situation is when we get there. When we don't make any firm plans yet, the Evil team can't base their startegy on the possible flaws of the Good team's plan. A vote follows for Eomer based on astrology, or something, and because of relationships.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, seeing as I just got here, I really don't know what's going on, excpet that my beloved Kath has been here. But where is she? I don't see her smiling face in the crowd.

I believe her dad told her to go to her room.

[Thinlómien]

Alas for the gentle old man! He was one of the few villagers that gave me candy voluntarily!

Remember also that in this game the wizards can choose who fight in their sides. I doubt they'd not choose good players.

If I were the EW I would choose wolves from the intelligent, but not really really respected and feared players. People that wouldn't be suspected because "ah, x is so cunning person, the EW must have chosen him/her" or be lynched because "better to see him/her dead before the EW picks him/her". I would choose players like: Roa (sorry momma), Gurthang, Diamond, Nogrod, Kath, Lhuna, Kitanna, Caílin and Lalaith. I guess I'm along quite the same lines with SPM here (if I understood him correctly).

I agree that we should try to find the EW, but we can't focus our search only on him/her, otherwise he just laughs by him/herself (I agree with the people who say EW will be a quite silent hider) and increases the wolf amount until they kill us all.

One thing I advise people to remember too is that the wolves will be much more difficult to find this time since they can't be caught from slimy co-operation, since they don't know each other.

edit: x-posted with my brother and Mrs. Felagund

[Diamond18]

Well, I'm glad to see I'm not going to be the first out of the voting blocks, I thought that by voting a good 9 hours early I'd be kicking things off. But, what's all this?

Originally Posted by the Nilpster

I'm pretty confident about my vote, though.

++Nogrod

Attacking my hubby, eh? Lynching my jester, eh? Battledores, attack!

Actually, I can't fault you too much. There were a few things that felt a little off about my Noggie before he disappeared (wherever DID he go?) and that fact alone is very odd for him. He's usually in the thick of it.... Morm is another one who has been more quiet than I'm used to, as the mayor of our fine town he usually has quite a bit to say about the affairs therein. I have not the time to count the exact number of times he has spoken up, but I think it was just the once. Very odd.

However, I'm not voting for either of those chaps.

+ + LOKI

Maybe he's the one scried by the GW, but then again, maybe he ain't.

Frankly, there is no one else at this early point that I'd rather see gone. Without more than niggling suspicions I don't feel comfortable campaigning for the death of any of my family and friends, so yes, Loki is getting the outsider vote. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt (I've never voted for a first timer before) if it weren't for his general churlishness.

And now, I must bit good day and head off to the battledore shop. The demand for battledores in this village is ridiculous, everyone must have really dusty rugs. In fact, I'll be spending the afternoon beating rugs. What a fun thought.

I am sorry to my family that I won't be able to do as I'd hoped, that is, help spare you at a crticial time if anyone tries to lynch you. But being the provider for this family (I'm wondering now why my husband gets to retire while I continue to toil!) I cannot slack off and let them go hungry. If I do that the terror... er, I mean, werewolves... will have won!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Piracy? Well, I have sailed on numerous voyages to distant and debatable lands; and, like most people, I've dabbled in a bit of jewel-trading. That's all in the past, though. Mormegil, venerable man, and Good Saucepan Man and beautiful Lady Celuien, I meant not to show disrespect to your family; but Kitanna and I, our destiny is to be together! Won't you bless us? Because, you know, this village might only last a few more days, and weddings are mighty complicated to arrange.

Wizards, eh? Well, it would appear that someone in this village is especially desirable: wanted by both sorcerers. Who is that desirable? For the EW primarily wants his wolves, and the GW wants a good gifted as well as the EW.

An all-round talented player, who is confident enough to school him/herself in magic [read: asked to be a wizard]

To my mind, that narrows it down. I've found a couple of these early votes to be somewhat inappropriate.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Piracy? Well, I have sailed on numerous voyages to distant and debatable lands; and, like most people, I've dabbled in a bit of jewel-trading. That's all in the past, though. Mormegil, venerable man, and Good Saucepan Man and beautiful Lady Celuien, I meant not to show disrespect to your family; but Kitanna and I, our destiny is to be together! Won't you bless us? Because, you know, this village might only last a few more days, and weddings are mighty complicated to arrange.

You've quite a long way to go, young man, ere I will lend my support to your cause. Though I will confess, I am not wholly unsympathetic, my own romance having been frowned upon in my younger days. We shall see.

Originally Posted by SPM

The difficulty in spotting the EW is that s/he will be doing his/her best to remain hidden and not to stir up controversy. Or at least to behave as we would expect him/her to, so as not to draw attention to him/herself. That in itself may help us in finding him/her.

That does seem the wisest move for the EW. As the phantom pointed out, once found, the GW may have good reason to call an early challenge and prevent werewolf population expansion. Though I would not expect a too early challenge.

We still have no gifteds. But after night four, when the gifted population could be complete and the werewolves have reached (let me count now: 2 currently, one added toNIGHT (and one gifted), 3 tomorrow night and one more added (two gifteds) and 4 the night after, plus one more (three gifteds)) for 5 wolves to 3 gifteds, then the time might be right for a challenge. Assuming that the wizards don't choose the same villager again, of course, and that no un-gifting/cursing occurs.

To make it even more difficult to flush out the EW, we can't even count on a defense of his/her creatures from him/her. The wolves s/he curses are expendable so long as the wolf under attack isn't the last one. Killed wolves can be replaced overnight, so why bother to save them in the day and risk a self-exposure?

I hesitate to discuss wizard spotting strategies further since they could equally be applied to the GW. While the phantom has a point about the GW having little to fear, I for one would not want to risk inadvertently exposing the GW to the EW prematurely.

Now, I'm not really excited about voting for anyone who has been proposed so far. While I'm itching to give that rascally Loki a piece of my mind (), I'm unwilling to vote for him before he has a chance to prove himself in the village. I am puzzled a little by his declaration, since I find its veracity lacking, but it seems an unwolf like thing to do as it guarantees attention. I think that, like his trickster namesake, he's sowing confusion. Which irritates me, but is not grounds for me to vote for him. Yet.

Now I must be off. My store of herbs is low and needs replenishing. I'll return in a few hours.

[Caranlondien]

The voting thus far:
1. Nilp --> Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
2. Lhuna --> Eomer (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1)
3. Gurthang --> Lommy (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1)
4. Diamond --> Loki (Nogrod 1, Eomer 1, Lommy 1, Loki 1)

I know the Day is young yet and these votes may give little indication as to how the Day will end, but I need to start the list for my own sanity. What with such a large village, I very quickly begin to forget who's voted for whom.

Now, as for the talk so far, I've chimed in with my opinion (that we ought to look for the EW). I don't think, though, that the GW should declare him/herself. It's up to his/her discretion when to declare, and until then, it's best to stay hidden, in case the EW gets into a good position to challenge before the GW does.

My own suspicions? Well, Loki's behavior seems strange. By "strange behavior", just to clarify, I mean the subtley made claim that he was cursed and un-cursed, and his somewhat abrasive reactions to people's passing comments. However, my suspicions of him may be mainly just because I can't find anyone else to suspect. He's the only one who has really stood out so far, and that itself casts him in slightly a better light, as it would be risky for a wolf to stand out that way.

I also find Lhuna's suggestion about the GW revealing him/herself slightly odd. It doesn't seem like a good idea to me (see above).

OOC Note: Cross-posted with a bunch of people, as I've been working on this on and off for a while due to a rather interesting computer situation...