WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Nogrod]

That wasn't surprising at all, sad to say that.

Well. Today seems to be our last chance (there surely is the possible miracle of a living nightingale making the save next night).

There are two dreamt of's in the village - and two not dreamt of's. But even though the odds for me or Spm to have been turned into a duck are small, we should not totally ignore those possibilities. Today we just will have to look at everything.

Then I hope, that everyone will have a possibility to vote as late as possible. I myself will probably have to vote first (+3GMT), though. As there are only four of us, the first gaining only two votes will be our lynch - no matter what kind of things people might come up with after that.


And just a short answer to Spm - kind of opening today's discussions from one side - as he has been weary of me changing my playing style after the first day. That is just perfectly normal. Those who have played with me surely know it. As I hate random accusations and just in role chit-chat on dAY1, I like to try and stir some serious discussion about priciples, tactics etc. It almost always heats the discussion and opens some real positions. From dAY2 onwards that is no longer necessary, as there most of the times is already something more substantial to go after.

[Nogrod]

Another opening. A thing I'm getting a bit worried about.

If it is, like Spm said, that the conversion on night2 happened to the one the ducks intended to kill, then I'm getting very weary about Spm himself.

Why?
- He seemed to be quite at home with the picking method, how could he be so assured? (Ok., I'm that much of a newbie still, that I may just be ignorant of a basic procedure.)
- Were I a duck, I would have a strong inclination to pick a player like Spm as my first kill. (I know, that Spm has stated the same about me)
- I did arouse some suspicion on dAY1 (also a vote), but don't remember Spm getting any. This of course should be checked (and I will, later as I have time).

Well. Making both me and Spm look suspicious. But then again, it doesn't prove, that they didn't pick Cailin or Kath...

Or then the duck left is one of the originals, leaving me and Spm innocent, and Cailin & Kath to choose from. After night2, we have killed both Spawn and Jenny. Either of them could have been the converted duck.

Tricky.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Today we just will have to look at everything.

With this, I heartily agree. If we don’t get it right today, the chances of a village victory are slim. That means that all of us still here need to speak up and share our opinions, theories and ideas. Is Cailín back with us? If not, then past day’s events would suggest that non-Cailín will not be with us until much nearer the deadline.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And just a short answer to Spm - kind of opening today's discussions from one side - as he has been weary of me changing my playing style after the first day. That is just perfectly normal. Those who have played with me surely know it.

It’s not so much the change in substance as the change in style that concerns me. You seemed to become a lot less aggressive and argumentative after Day 1. And your voting record, I’m afraid, is not great. You have voted only once for a known Duck. And that was at a time when said Duck (spawn) was likely to be lynched. Other than that, you have voted twice for known innocents and once for an unknown (Kath). It doesn’t make you the last Duck. But it certainly puts you well in the reckoning.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If it is, like Spm said, that the conversion on night2 happened to the one the ducks intended to kill, then I'm getting very weary about Spm himself.

As you said, we have to consider all options. But I can assure you that I am not a Duck.

I have a feeling that the Nightingale may still be among us. If so, they were right not to declare themselves yesterday. But I wonder if they should do so today. The upside, of course, is that we would narrow our list of potential Ducks. The downside, however, is that, if we choose wrongly today, there is still a chance that they may save the remaining innocent overnight, leading to an almost certain village victory tomorrow. What do people think?

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmmm. I have just remembered how keen Nogrod seemed yesterday to keep alive the possibility (contrary to the evidence, in my view) that Mith was the Goose and that Valier might therefore still be the last Duck. Valier’s death shows us that she was innocent. Surely only the Duck would have wanted to keep her in the reckoning. The rest of us, I think, had pretty much discounted her as innocent. Are you the Duck, Nogrod? It’s looking pretty much that way to me.

[Kath]

To answer your point about the Nightingale, SPM, I'm not sure that revealing themselves would be a great deal of help to us. We need a situation toNight where the Nightingale and the Duck go for the same person. If the Nightingale reveals themselves the Duck will probably go for them. That still leaves us one innocent down, and it's more of a blow to the village.

As to your ideas about Nogrod, they do make sense. I have been uncomfortable with the way he has been trying to discredit Mith, especially after her death when she cannot argue her corner. All it did was sow confusion.

Nogrod's arguments about SPM possibly being the Duck seem well-founded. It is true to say that SPM had no (or very little) suspicion directed his way on Day 1, but actually Nogrod, that's quite normal. People don't tend to start suspecting SPM for a couple of Days, and therefore your idea that the Ducks would want to kill him first Night seems off to me. The difference in opinion here may just be that I've played more games with him though.

As for Cailin, I want to hear from her/him toDay before I make any decisions on that front.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, it’s very quiet today. Which is to be expected, I suppose, with so few villagers left. Yet I am surprised that Nogrod is not more vocal. It’s unlike him to be so quiet.

If Cailín is the Duck, then she has played a blinder and flown almost completely beneath our radars. If so, she almost deserves to win. But I am inclined to think her innocent.

I am also inclined to view Kath as innocent, for the reasons which I stated yesterday. Her voting record looks wholly un-Duckish to me. I would have expected a Duck to vote for spawn following Glirdan’s revelation.

Which leaves me with Nogrod. And everything points to him as being the transformed Duck. The change in style after Day 1. The reaction to the Mith/Glirdan revelations and his vote for spawn on Day 2. A Duck would presumably have thought Glirdan the true Owl, as he had named spawn as a Duck, and would be concerned not to be seen trying to save spawn. It therefore looks a very Duckish vote, particularly as, unbeknownst to us, there would still be two Ducks left following spawn’s death. The attempt to confuse yesterday by clinging to the possibility of a Goosey Mith and, to an extent, today by seeking to implicate me. And also his relativeness quietness today, which is unusual for him. I suspect that he is lurking, waiting to see which way village opinion is turning.

I am tempted to vote for him right now. Yet I will hold off, as we are likely to get only one chance at this and I would like to hear the thoughts of the others first.

[Cailín]

In reply to your question about the Nightingale, if any of us would say 'I am the nightingale', would you believe them and not vote for them? Say the duck would pretend to be the nightingale and we wouldn't vote for him / her tonight, it would result in a village loss, or even more confusion if one person pretends to be the nightingale and the real nightingale says 'No, I am the nightingale.' . I don't think it's the best idea if the nightingale declares himself now, but rather remain quiet.

I think there's only 2 options that can be the last remaining duck, Kath and the Saucepan Man . I think Nogrod was under way too much suspicion to be the Duck's target in the first night. However, like Nogrod said, I wouldn't want SpM to be in a game against me.

I've been reading through the post of Jenny and Spawn the first days trying to see if one of them might have been the changed Duck. Jenny makes an attempt so save Nilp in the first Day, Spawn doesn't say much at all day 1, so it's kinda hard to point out anything that would make her seem changed after the first night. She starts bashing on our Owl in day 2 though, and I can understand why Ducks wouldn't want to be against her, so she would make a logical kill. That would make Kath the last remaining duck.

Crossposted with SpM, and yes I'm still Non-Cailin. However I'm trying to take breaks every now and then from studying for my final exams to post a bit more often.

[The Saucepan Man]

Cailín, I should remind you that the only possibility of me being a Duck is if the Ducks’ notification of who they were intending to kill on Night 2 came in after Mith’s notification of who she wished to dream of. Pretty short odds, I’d say.

Originally Posted by Cailín

I think there's only 2 options that can be the last remaining duck, Kath and the Saucepan Man.

Interesting that you exclude yourself from the list. And I really don’t see how you can discount Nogrod. My impression was that there was very little suspicion of him at the end of Day 1 but, in light of your comment, I went back to check. The only serious suspicion of him came from mormegil, who voted for him. But that was a Day 1 vote, based on very little information, and so likely to change. In those circumstances, I think it quite possible that the Ducks will have targeted Nogrod on Night 2. He has shown himself to be a formidable player in the past. And, if I am right about him being a Duck, he has lived up to that reputation in this game.

Originally Posted by Cailín

That would make Kath the last remaining duck.

… or you.

And where is Nogrod? He's usually a pretty much permanent fixture in the village throughout the Day ...