WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 05-02-2006, 10:08 PM

Surely no surprise this one...

But this seems to give us one possible good news, as it seems, that the goose is also dead. So five villagers against one duck. That should mean, that we have two chances to win this one, today and tomorrow.

We have three known innocents and three unknowns. So with two lynches, it is 2/3. We could make it. But that means some real investigation into the cases of Kath, Morm and Cailin. And surely, if you wish, to mine. I know, I haven't changed into anything featherd the second night. But as we all know, that can be proven only with my death.

mormegil · 05-02-2006, 11:11 PM

My guess about Kath's behavior today will be that she'll be quiet and cautious so as to not arouse suspicion but will poke and prod a bit here and there on the most common alternative 'non-Kath' theory. I would love somebody to give us another analysis of Kath, that way people will know that it's not slanted by me; in fact I'd love to see two that way I would know that at least two innocent did the analysis, one of the others and me.

As far as Cailin goes, I'm fairly convinced of Cailin's and non-Cailin's innocence, but of course we should give her the once over too. I'm glad you admit, Nogrod, that there is a possibility that you are a Duck but also we need to keep in mind that there is a slight chance SpM is too. Now I would save that analysis for tomorrow if we don't get the duck today. I would love to see SpM, Valier and Kath go over my posts as well as the other two but particularly those three.

Valier · 05-02-2006, 11:37 PM

Well I am off to bed now. I can't promise an analysis of any value to others, since I don't work that way, but I will definately look over all that has been written when I get up tomorrow. I would like to hear from Kath and Cailin by then. Till the morrow then.

Nogrod · 05-03-2006, 02:33 AM

As I walked back home from school (takes almost an hour), I had time to think a little this Owl/goose -stuff that bothered me a bit already earlier. And I must admit being a bit more anguished by it now. And as we will have at most two chances to win this game, I don't think we can afford leaving any stones unturned.

Assuming we didn't have two Owls - or any other miraculous things going on (someone given an extra-dream etc.), then it should be clear that of our two owl-candidates, one was the owl, the other was the goose. No ordo would start that kind of game.

We have quite all accepted Mith as the owl, and Glirdy as the goose. I admit, having somewhat being of that opinion too. But now I'm not so sure anymore (not meaning, I'm sure the otherway-around is true).

If we look at both of them, one at the time, as Owls, they both make sense. Mith was coming under some attacks and she was facing her bedtime. If she would not react, she might just wake up in the morning, finding out herself dead - and two dreams of innocents lost from the village, possibly a third one with the Nitghtingale's help.

But Glirdy then? He had a dream of an actual duck. In the case of his death at night (you never know) we would have lost all the dreams (one duck, one innocent) and would be left in the hands of a false Owl (by that time it was a possibility that Mith might even be a very bold duck). In a game where the giftedness is not revealed in death, the life of an Owl is much harder - and I believe, revealing just one duck could be wiser than to risk losing it altogether.

Both acted a bit strangely, as their giftedness was questioned. But surely Glirdy failing to dream the next night was the weirdest thing. It was just so astonishing, that it might even be thought of as a genuine failure to dream?

But the problems arise, when we start thinking about the goosiness of these two. So let's see both of them as a goose this time.

Glirdy as goose seems to me just totally insane character. What possible thing might he had in mind? If he tried us to disbelieve Mith's annoucement, he took the hardest (and the most unprobable) way possible. He decided just to guess for a duck! From the village then, he had a chance of 1/5, and had he missed, he would be dead himself the next day.

Mith as a goose seems much more effective. As she was only revealing innocents, she could hope to hit a duck eventually. Well: the best gift a goose could give to the ducks would be taking the position of the Owl and manage to declare a duck innocent! That would be fantastic indeed...

Well I have some more thoughts about how this could affect our current situation. I'll come to them in a moment.

Nogrod · 05-03-2006, 03:32 AM

If we can all assure ourselves, that Mith was the Owl and Glirdy the goose. Then it would seem "bussiness as usual".

And we would have an overall scheme about the following:
Valier - dreamed innocent
Spm - dreamed innocent (very high probability)
Nogrod - dreamed innocent (high probability)

Cailin/non-Cailin - not suspected much
Morm - suspected / not suspected
Kath - highly suspected

But if we come to think of Mith as the goose, the situation changes, taking one of the dreamed ones out of the list. It does not mean, that one of the dreamt ones is a duck, but it opens that possibility. Now then: it would not be Spm, as he was backed by Glirdy too (if Mith is a goose, then Glirdy is the right Owl). I know, it wouldn't be me, as I have not changed. That would then move Valier to my list of possible ducks.

That leads to the reasons / motivations, why the goose-Mith was killed?

Firstly, it's possible, that the duck was afraid of being caught as a duck (believing Mith the owl). That would mean, that the dreamt of's are all innocents.

Secondly, the duck might have thought of Mith as the goose, but as she seemed not to get any ducks on the lineup of innocents, she had to be stopped before she got too many innocents revealed. That also leaves all the dreamt of's innocent.

Thirdly, and most anguishly, the duck might have just gotten to the list, and decided to stop it to the best place possible. As the least suspected person, Valier could basically secure herself alive after tomorrows lynch (three left), and thence win the game. If either I or Spm would have been the duck, we should have killed her earlier, not to bring too many innocents to spoil our game.

I'm not saying, that Valier is the duck. I'm just pointing out, that if the case Mith is rethought (as I see possible, even though not as evident), then Valier could be one of our real suspects. That's because: I know, that only she can be the duck from us three dreamt of's, and because her place on the list fits Mith's death only today, and is the best possible for sealing the victory.

I would like to hear your comments on this Owl/goose thing today.

I will promise to look at Kath's earlier posting more closely today. But a bit later.

Kath · 05-03-2006, 06:30 AM

I simply don't understand why I'm under all this suspicion. If you're all determined to think of me as a Duck then ok, but please tell me why.

Nogrod's theory about Mith being the Goose rather than the Owl is intruiging, but she was just too convincing to me. I don't think she could have kept the act up so calmly.

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay.

So now if I follow the pattern I'm a Duck and if I don't I'm trying not to, and so am a Duck.

Still, I think out of the unknowns Cailin looks innocent leaving, to me, morm as the last Duck. At least, lets hope it's the last, Diamond's already given us one surprise!

Nogrod · 05-03-2006, 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay.

So now if I follow the pattern I'm a Duck and if I don't I'm trying not to, and so am a Duck.

I do agree with you Kath, that Morm's "pre-analysis" was kind of nasty way of putting things forwards. It hasn't at least lessened my suspicions of him. For good or for evil, he seems to be set to lynch Kath - and if Kath turns out to be innocent, then I'm probably the next. And if he is the duck indeed, I must congratulate him, if he succeeds. But as I said, we must consider all believable possibilities today.

That's why I would like to hear your assesments concerning the possibility of Mith being the goose. I'm not saying she is, but I do not think, her not-being a goose is self evident - as seems to be the general tone around now.

I hope someone will make an analysis on Morm today - as at least I have promised to look for Kath's posts. Funny though: Morm quite openly declared not wishing me to analyse him...

05-02-2006, 10:08 PM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Surely no surprise this one... But this seems to give us one possible good news, as it seems, that the goose is also dead. So five villagers against one duck. That should mean, that we have two chances to win this one, today and tomorrow. We have three known innocents and three unknowns. So with two lynches, it is 2/3. We could make it. But that means some real investigation into the cases of Kath, Morm and Cailin. And surely, if you wish, to mine. I know, I haven't changed into anything featherd the second night. But as we all know, that can be proven only with my death. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

05-02-2006, 11:11 PM	#2
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	My guess about Kath's behavior today will be that she'll be quiet and cautious so as to not arouse suspicion but will poke and prod a bit here and there on the most common alternative 'non-Kath' theory. I would love somebody to give us another analysis of Kath, that way people will know that it's not slanted by me; in fact I'd love to see two that way I would know that at least two innocent did the analysis, one of the others and me. As far as Cailin goes, I'm fairly convinced of Cailin's and non-Cailin's innocence, but of course we should give her the once over too. I'm glad you admit, Nogrod, that there is a possibility that you are a Duck but also we need to keep in mind that there is a slight chance SpM is too. Now I would save that analysis for tomorrow if we don't get the duck today. I would love to see SpM, Valier and Kath go over my posts as well as the other two but particularly those three. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

05-02-2006, 11:37 PM	#3
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	Well I am off to bed now. I can't promise an analysis of any value to others, since I don't work that way, but I will definately look over all that has been written when I get up tomorrow. I would like to hear from Kath and Cailin by then. Till the morrow then. __________________ grand return?........

05-03-2006, 02:33 AM	#4
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	As I walked back home from school (takes almost an hour), I had time to think a little this Owl/goose -stuff that bothered me a bit already earlier. And I must admit being a bit more anguished by it now. And as we will have at most two chances to win this game, I don't think we can afford leaving any stones unturned. Assuming we didn't have two Owls - or any other miraculous things going on (someone given an extra-dream etc.), then it should be clear that of our two owl-candidates, one was the owl, the other was the goose. No ordo would start that kind of game. We have quite all accepted Mith as the owl, and Glirdy as the goose. I admit, having somewhat being of that opinion too. But now I'm not so sure anymore (not meaning, I'm sure the otherway-around is true). If we look at both of them, one at the time, as Owls, they both make sense. Mith was coming under some attacks and she was facing her bedtime. If she would not react, she might just wake up in the morning, finding out herself dead - and two dreams of innocents lost from the village, possibly a third one with the Nitghtingale's help. But Glirdy then? He had a dream of an actual duck. In the case of his death at night (you never know) we would have lost all the dreams (one duck, one innocent) and would be left in the hands of a false Owl (by that time it was a possibility that Mith might even be a very bold duck). In a game where the giftedness is not revealed in death, the life of an Owl is much harder - and I believe, revealing just one duck could be wiser than to risk losing it altogether. Both acted a bit strangely, as their giftedness was questioned. But surely Glirdy failing to dream the next night was the weirdest thing. It was just so astonishing, that it might even be thought of as a genuine failure to dream? But the problems arise, when we start thinking about the goosiness of these two. So let's see both of them as a goose this time. Glirdy as goose seems to me just totally insane character. What possible thing might he had in mind? If he tried us to disbelieve Mith's annoucement, he took the hardest (and the most unprobable) way possible. He decided just to guess for a duck! From the village then, he had a chance of 1/5, and had he missed, he would be dead himself the next day. Mith as a goose seems much more effective. As she was only revealing innocents, she could hope to hit a duck eventually. Well: the best gift a goose could give to the ducks would be taking the position of the Owl and manage to declare a duck innocent! That would be fantastic indeed... Well I have some more thoughts about how this could affect our current situation. I'll come to them in a moment. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

05-03-2006, 03:32 AM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	If we can all assure ourselves, that Mith was the Owl and Glirdy the goose. Then it would seem "bussiness as usual". And we would have an overall scheme about the following: Valier - dreamed innocent Spm - dreamed innocent (very high probability) Nogrod - dreamed innocent (high probability) Cailin/non-Cailin - not suspected much Morm - suspected / not suspected Kath - highly suspected But if we come to think of Mith as the goose, the situation changes, taking one of the dreamed ones out of the list. It does not mean, that one of the dreamt ones is a duck, but it opens that possibility. Now then: it would not be Spm, as he was backed by Glirdy too (if Mith is a goose, then Glirdy is the right Owl). I know, it wouldn't be me, as I have not changed. That would then move Valier to my list of possible ducks. That leads to the reasons / motivations, why the goose-Mith was killed? Firstly, it's possible, that the duck was afraid of being caught as a duck (believing Mith the owl). That would mean, that the dreamt of's are all innocents. Secondly, the duck might have thought of Mith as the goose, but as she seemed not to get any ducks on the lineup of innocents, she had to be stopped before she got too many innocents revealed. That also leaves all the dreamt of's innocent. Thirdly, and most anguishly, the duck might have just gotten to the list, and decided to stop it to the best place possible. As the least suspected person, Valier could basically secure herself alive after tomorrows lynch (three left), and thence win the game. If either I or Spm would have been the duck, we should have killed her earlier, not to bring too many innocents to spoil our game. I'm not saying, that Valier is the duck. I'm just pointing out, that if the case Mith is rethought (as I see possible, even though not as evident), then Valier could be one of our real suspects. That's because: I know, that only she can be the duck from us three dreamt of's, and because her place on the list fits Mith's death only today, and is the best possible for sealing the victory. I would like to hear your comments on this Owl/goose thing today. I will promise to look at Kath's earlier posting more closely today. But a bit later. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

05-03-2006, 06:30 AM	#6
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	I simply don't understand why I'm under all this suspicion. If you're all determined to think of me as a Duck then ok, but please tell me why. Nogrod's theory about Mith being the Goose rather than the Owl is intruiging, but she was just too convincing to me. I don't think she could have kept the act up so calmly. It also seems that I'm not allowed to give any suspicions of my own, as morm has dictated how I will play toDay. So now if I follow the pattern I'm a Duck and if I don't I'm trying not to, and so am a Duck. Still, I think out of the unknowns Cailin looks innocent leaving, to me, morm as the last Duck. At least, lets hope it's the last, Diamond's already given us one surprise! __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

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