WWJ VIII ~ Things That Go "Quack" In The Night

[Anguirel]

Oh dear. This day seems to be on the brink of sliding into Mith/Spawn duel to an even more serious extent than yesterday's Roa/Nogrod duel. That was a conflict of issues, but this is a tad more ad feminem-could be bitter.

Mith, do you have strong suspicions of anyone besides Spawn? It must be said that she's currently beating you on breadth of coverage.

I do not wish morm to escape scrutiny by virtue of his admittedly diligent surveyance of all our opinions on Nilp. Often werecreatures make sure they are the first to reach the evidence so that those too idle to view it directly will see it through were-tinted spectacles.

It is true to say that it's fascinating how many independent quarters Mith has drawn suspicion from. Saucie and Roa both felt her lightweight (though admittedly before waiting long to judge her-besides I trust neither of them). Kath felt her statistical approach an uncharacteristic angle, and even with Mith's accountancy in the picture I must admit that was in my mind too. Now dancing spawn has singled her out above other targets.

Mith's performance yesterday was hardly illuminating, but Lady Spawnowen's was still less so; as she pointed out herself, she failed to vote. However, she has produced a forceful case today that should be considered, and that struck many a reluctant chord in my brain.

Above either Spawn or Mith today in my mind are Roa and morm, both of whom I have accused countless times. Yesterday, bar post #46, I called morm a Goose. I now say Boo to that (vide Mith's signature) and declare him a full-feathered duck.

He fudged on Nilp yesterday, but did not include himself on the list of negligible Nilp-watchers, or any list at all. As it was not a suspicion ladder per se this is a rather evasive move.

He's also been, let's face it, pretty unhelpful with a slightly reasoned vote, until this morning, when the aid he brought was...well, similar in quality to Mith's statistics yesterday morning. A useful but scarcely enlightening task performed, that's all.

EDIT: The alleged signature of Mith's regarding Booing I referenced is either no more or belonged to someone else all the time. Sorry for confusion caused...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Oh dear. This day seems to be on the brink of sliding into Mith/Spawn duel to an even more serious extent than yesterday's Roa/Nogrod duel.

I'd rather have reasoned analyses from everyone than any kind of a duel (am I imagining, or is it going pretty heated between you and morm, too).

Originally Posted by Ang

He's also been, let's face it, pretty unhelpful with a slightly reasoned vote, until this morning, when the aid he brought was...well, similar in quality to Mith's statistics yesterday morning. A useful but scarcely enlightening task performed, that's all.

Your case against morm is interesting.

I went back to analyse him myself.


- mormegil

#6 Laments his own death in the future, Day 1 chatting.
- Seems typical 1st post for morm. -

#30 Says that killing Ducks isn't lofty enough for his brain. Doesn't like the Owl talk much, but talks about possible Goose scenarios. Clarifies the rules (ie. we don't see the deceaseds' roles if they were the Goose or a Gifted). Says that if he were the Goose, he'd step forward and say that he's the Owl.
Says that both Kath and Sauce should be lynched.
- This is mostly an insightful post with the example and all, but it looks like he'd be giving advice for the Goose on how to act... -

#51 Ang criticized morm's Goose post, so morm replies to it by saying: "All I did was point out something in advance to the owl so that he/she wouldn't fall for a ploy that may be employed by the goose." He also says that he understands why he looks suspicious.
- Well, that's a good answer. However, his previous post might still be considered suspicious and he understands it himself, splendid. -

#95 Agrees with Kath that if he were a Duck, he'd not kill the talkative people early, but wonders why he is speculating it. Says that he has some problems with net connection, so he has to vote. Wonders if killing Nilp would be an "easy way out", but says that he might be guilty. Says that killing Nogrod would slow down the speed of the discussions, but he might be guilty, too. Says that he's fairly clueless and votes for Nogrod.
- Another 'if I were a baddie' scenario. Hmm, are you? One could have quite a few accusations similar to Glirdan's observation about Valier's slip, but otherwise this seems quite normal behaviour for morm. -

#106 Finds Sleepy's vote for Nilp odd and it makes Sleepy suspicious. Says that Roa makes a good point about Nogrod that in last games "he's been toning down his agression. Strange, did he just decide to drop his (albeit relatively) subdued manner in the passion of his argument? Or is he just being a bold Duck?" ~Roa
Morm's opinion is that Nogrod is more likely to be a bold Duck.

#121 Says that Nilp's death and guilt were surprises although he had his suspicions. Collects quotes of Nilp by everyone and lists the votes for Nilp between them in chronological order. Finds Cailín's comment the oddest and mentiones that Ang and Jenny defended Nilp, and Jenny voted for someone else "at a critical point". Due to voting thinks that Valier is innocent.
- I just realised that I hadn't listed Jenny's vote for Sleepy to my list of the votes. She voted between Sauce and Roa.

Anyway, I wonder why morm didn't list Mith's words about Nilp; "For now I will take this [Nilp's self-vote] as an honourable route if it is the only participation possible. I don't know if he makes a habit of this but I shall not necessarily be always so lenient. Non-participation makes life so difficult for the true villagers and often plays into the hands of the "three"." ~Mith

Also, morm lists a lot of quotes, but doesn't really comment them. It looks helpful, but anyone could just do a list of quotes. The lack of personal thoughts about the gathered information seems duckish since morm is very well capable of doing analyses... -

#133 Says that he realises that if Mith turns out to be guilty it will look bad for him, but he defends Mith by saying that he didn't see anything unusual in Mith's snappishness. Says that he doesn't understand why we concentrate on four exclamation marks, but says that there are other things that make her look moderately guilty.
- Interesting that after I've explained my post about the ! marks and posted my theory about Mith which had little to do with exclamation marks, morm brings them to the discussion again. Also, this is the second time when he says that he understands why people find him suspicious. He defends Mith, then admits that she looks somewhat suspicious, then talks about punctuations again and how they aren't a good reason. If you read my case, you are aware that I don't suspect Mith because of them. -

Uh, I need a break now. I don't know what to think of this all, but I'll keep an eye on him, that's for sure.


ps. Roa, I don't think that criticizing dead villagers' playing styles is very relevant right now. It's Nilp's tradition to vote himself on Day 1, like it or not. If you've read recent WW games past the first Day, I don't think you have a reason to complain.

edit: Cross-posted with everyone since #145.

[Valier]

Wow way to go nightinggale!! I can't believe Nilp actually was a duck! I voted for him, because like I said I am never sure if this time he will be a baddie and my gut was right this time.

For all the people who think I am a cunning duck ie:Ang,Cailin etc... Thanks for the vote of confidence, but I assure you I am just a cunning villager..

I understand Roa's thoughts on Nilp I too find this type of play annoying, I know Nilp is way smarter than he plays in ww games.

Well he's gone now, so lets not dwell on it. Lets keep our luck up and get another Duck.

I will read through the posts and see what I can come up with. I'll Be back in a bit, with hopefully something tangible.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Kath

Followed by a vote for a different reason! It was this contradiction that made me look at you. Had you not bothered to repeat the bit about always voting randomly I wouldn't have thought anything of it, but after you so specifically mentioned it, not following that looks a little odd.

I still fail to see your side of this matter. It was a special circumstance as the seer statement was supposed to eximplify, which in itself was meant as a sort of joke. The seer revealing themself on Day 1? Yeah right...

And how about I say my vote for Nilp was done at random because I pulled a name out of a hat and thats what I got, does that make you happy?

[Mithalwen]

I don't want to fight anyone. I am hypersensitive, I know - it is the reason I took a long break from WW. If you attack me, I will defend myself. I want to do my best to catch the remaining ducks. Lynching me will not help you do this. You can always kill me later but I am pretty sure the Ducks will save you the trouble so you might as well consider a few other options.

I am not a duck. You really will do better to look elsewhere. I can only prove this absolutely by dying but that really won't be in your favour. We( ie the village) are in a strong position here. Don't blow it by focussing on my personality flaws. They are many but dishonesty is not one of them. Wearing my heart on my sleeve is.

I cannot stay to the end. In fact I have about 2.5 hours. I have a lot of reading to do. I have wasted a lot of time defending myself which is quite exasperating.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't want to fight anyone. I am hypersensitive, I know - it is the reason I took a long break from WW. If you attack me, I will defend myself. I want to do my best to catch the remaining ducks. Lynching me will not help you do this.

Which is why I suggest complete removal of direct attacks on people, whatever the reason but I believe this is a matter for elsewhere.

[Kath]

Which is why I suggest complete removal of direct attacks on people, whatever the reason but I believe this is a matter for elsewhere.

Excuse me? How else are we going to find out if they are guilty or not!

And how about I say my vote for Nilp was done at random because I pulled a name out of a hat and thats what I got, does that make you happy?

No, it wouldn't. But I won't argue anymore. We'll just have to agree to differ.

[Anguirel]

Excuse me? How else are we going to find out if they are guilty or not!

Quite, Kath. You're proving a breath of sanity this game-I wonder why on earth I voted for you yesterday evening...no hard feelings I hope...

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Kath

Excuse me? How else are we going to find out if they are guilty or not!

As I said its a matter for elsewhere, I'll fill you in on all the details elsewhere even though that comment/question of yours strikes me as rude. Now back to finding the ducks.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

As I said its a matter for elsewhere, I'll fill you in on all the details elsewhere even though that comment/question of yours strikes me as rude. Now back to finding the ducks.

It's not a matter for elsewhere. It's a question of strategy. We are not going to find ducks by shyly questioning each other about points of rules ettiquette and tickling each other with pads of cotton wool.

[Valier]

All this talk about fighting and defending oneself is getting annoying! If you are innocent and people are attacking you, defend yourself, but why get upset? You know your innocent, so you should care less what people say....I just think it's funny when people think I'm a wolf(duck) when I'm not. Then when I die I laugh at all who thought me bad. So noone get uptight, it's just a game remember!!!!

[The Saucepan Man]

Time for me to collect my thoughts on everyone, based on what has occurred to date.

Anguirel has seemed nothing but helpful and constructive so far. He has put forward some credible theories and generally talked good sense. That is exactly how I would expect him to behave, if a Duck, but I think it more likely at the moment that he is a helpful innocent.

Mithalwen was my main suspect and has done little to change my mind today. Her cases against me (initially) and spawn (whom she voted for) were entirely flimsy and she was jumpy and defensive in response to the merest of comments. Yes, she can be irritable. But experience tells me that she can be a very jumpy Wolf (and, therefore, Duck) too. She seems more measured in her responses today (perhaps having had a chance to reassess overnight and tone down her Duckish jumpiness), but is still complaining about being suspected for her use of exclamation marks. For my part, it was not her use of punctuation, but her reaction to being called on it, which raised my suspicions of her.

Mormegil seemed slightly off to me yesterday. He jumped in today with a seemingly helpful analysis of what was said yesterday concerning Nilp. But, as others have pointed out, it provides him with the opportunity to appear helpful while planting seeds of suspicion where he wants them to grow. I rather agree with Nogrod that those who expressed suspicion of Nilp but did not vote for him are more suspicious than those who said little about him (even though I myself fall into that category – as does mormegil, of course).

Valier – more likely innocent than not for her vote for Nilp. It has been said that she has a good instinct for spotting Ducks, so I’d like to hear more from her today.

Nogrod – despite my disagreement with him yesterday, he seemed genuine enough in his intentions. And thankfully, he is concentrating more on looking for Ducks today and I agree with much of what he has said. Probably innocent.

Kath has not really said enough for me to form much of an opinion of her (although I sympathise with her reasons for being quiet yesterday). Her second vote for Sleepy might be regarded as suspicious, but it’s not enough to go on. I am glad that she looks to be feeling up to participating more today, and what she has said so far looks to be constructive (although she seems more argfumentative than usual).

Cailín is talking good sense. For some reason (probably something to do with a past life ) I generally trust Cailín, and I have no reason not to do so at present.

Roa Aoife has made a name for herself for being aggressive and for her argument with Nogrod. Neither particularly suggest Duckishness to me, although I am aware that she is more than capable of carrying off such behaviour as a Duck. Not sure about her making such a fuss over Nilp’s behaviour. It would be strange for a Duck to berate her fellow Duck so openly.

Glirdan was overly defensive yesterday, even though he was not under much serious suspicion (most of the suspicion expressed about him yesterday (mine included) came up during the opening Day 1 “in-character” banter). As I said yesterday, his point about Valier was a weak one, and seemingly gratuitous. While Nogrod has pointed out that Wolves sometimes make slips, I don’t see how saying “I never wanted her dead” about someone whose death was a foregone conclusion can be construed as a Duckish slip.

Lote22's only real contribution was to vote for Nilp. I currently believe her innocent for it, so would welcome some further input from her.

Lalaith has offered seemingly helpful and constructive comments, although nothing truly incisive. Then again, how many of us have? I have no reason to suspect her at the moment.

JennyHallu’s vote for Sleepy, tying him on 3 votes with Nilp, unnerves me. She was fairly vocal yesterday, without saying much that was constructive. I believe that she is capable of more. So I’m keeping my eye on her.

Elu Ancalime has contributed virtually nothing. He did not vote and has not explained why (other than some vague comment about there being a lot of discussion, which I didn’t really understand). Based on what Nogrod has said about his prior experience of Elu, I think it quite possible that he’s a silent Duck.

Sleepy Ranger was effectively the alternative candidate to Nilp yesterday. We would have to have been incredibly lucky to have had two Ducks on the ropes. But it’s not beyond the realms of possibility. Difficult to say at the moment.

Dancing spawn of ungoliant is one that I traditionally suspect, even though she usually talks sense and offers helpful analyses. She has been doing just that in this village, and yet I don’t find myself suspecting her. Which troubles me, if that makes any sense. For now, I am inclined to trust her.

So, in summary:

Probably innocent: Lote22

Currently inclined to trust: Anguirel, Valier, Nogrod, Cailín, Lalaith, spawn

Don’t know: Kath, Roa, Glirdan, Sleepy

Suspicious: mormegil, Jenny, Elu

Decidedly Duckish: Mithalwen

Originally Posted by The Diamoddess

The Nightingale can protect the same person any number of times but not on consecutive nights.

I think we should consider the consequences of the Nightingale not being able to protect the same person tonight. More on this shortly.

[Mithalwen]

Oh Saucie .... you disappoint me. Now I am certain you are the goose.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

I'd rather have reasoned analyses from everyone than any kind of a duel (am I imagining, or is it going pretty heated between you and morm, too).

A wee bit...though to give the chap his due he himself hasn't had time to respond to my more serious accusations yet, and I've been the aggressor throughout. Make of that what you will...

[Mithalwen]

Ang - I did say quite clearly in my lunchtime post that I suspected Roa for what, out of some vestigal regard for the conventions of the downs I called hypocrisy.

What I meant was more on the lines of economy with the truth. Top three is high so to then say it isn't is just untrue.

I really want to get away from the Spawn stuff since I know my innocence will be shown posthumously. However I think it may be one of those unfortunate and destructive personality clashes. I don't see anything wrong with my goose logic. If we lynch someone strongly suspecting them to be a duck and they turned out to be "innocent" = and we know that term covers some distinctions, it is a stong possibility that they were the goose rather than an ordo or a gifted.

As for other suspects.... well I have to look at you and Morm becasue you know me best.....

Also I want to look beyond my normal circle of acquaintanceship. Lote's "emperor's new clothes" vote made me realise that we can get stuck on what we know of each other.