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#1 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Dananananananana Nananananananana BATMAN! (Oh, like you weren't thinking it.....)
*BAM!* *POW!* Holy Wereducks! A fowl plot is clearly afoot. Upon webbed feet, no less. What sinister mind could have spawned this scheme? Who among us would so boldly fly in the face of justice? I shall bend all of my mental powers to discerning this riddle. Hopefully my military experience will aid me in this quest.
Okay, I've had my fun. (For those of you who don't know, that was referencing the original Batman, which is far more comical than the current.) Well, several things I'd like to point out. 1. We have a lot of people saying "Concentrate on finding the Ducks!" *coughSPMcough* with out actually suggesting how. Highly suspicious. 2. I actually understand not wanting to vote for certain people on Day 1. There are certain people in the village who can be a great help when they are innocent, and I certainly don't want them gone so quickly. 3. I find Nilp's self-vote annoying. Does he actually become more helpful if he survives Day 1? If so, leave him. If not, get rid of him. (This goes back to point 2.) 4. As a highly intelligent Jenny once said (even if she was a WereOrc), "Maybe the reason we can never find anything on Day 1 is because we all just sit around complaining about Day 1." (Maybe slightly off, but that was the gist of it.) Based on this, I have moved Nogrod and SPM to the top of my list. As well as Mith- she's not being her usually thoughful self.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#2 | ||||
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Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Grrr! I should be in the fields scaring off birds. But there are some (rather hastily made) points which need answering.
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For my own part, I have outlined my current suspicions, based on what has been said so far. I stand by them, and you must judge me on them as you see fit. I will certainly be judging you all on the same basis – and will vote accordingly. Quite possibly wrongly, given the limited information available, but most certainly not randomly. I'm off to the fields now for a few hours. I'll be back later to see what has transpired.
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Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! |
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#3 | ||
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Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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On the other hand, there's very little else we can do. I think I narrowly prefer Saucie's "find some flimsy reasoning" basis to Sleepy's "random" basis. Random votes are almost always not random anyway... I myself often surrender to the strong temptation to thrw analysis to the wind and spend the first day avenging some absurdly petty grudge... Quote:
And I think perhaps we should give Mith a chance. The statistical stuff was useful for a short post, if a bit disturbingly dispassionate, I suppose. She'll be back with Enlightenment.
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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#4 | |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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EDIT: Cross posted with Nogrod
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#5 | |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Nogrod- think of it this way. We won't know when the Owl dies, but niether will the Ducks, unless s/he chooses to reveal him/herself. This makes the game quite difficult for them. Rather than depend on dreams, (which, even when we find out who the seer is after death, can still be very misleading) why not depend on reasoned cases? We can all make those. You seem a little nervous this game. Something wrong?
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There is no reason for the Owl to not follow normal tactics because no one will know who they are when they die. We won't knw if dreams have been lost, niether will the ducks. This allows us to operate in confidence, while they must operate in paranoia. (Much like you seem to be showing.) Obviously is the Owl is about to be lynched s/he should come forward, but beyond that, I should think not. Now, let's leave the Owl alone and focus on Duck Hunting. (Awesome Old-school game....) I accept SPM's answer... for now. However he is far too dangerous to not be looked at carefully. Especially if he is still alive tomorrow. Something seems distinctly off about Nogrod. He's looking more and more suspicious to me now. EDIT: Cross posted with last three
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#6 | |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#7 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Just as a note: We are still waiting to hear from
Lote22 JennyHallu Elu Ancalime They still have plenty of time, though.
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#8 |
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Everlasting Whiteness
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Ah that'll be a random one Roa. morm and I traditionally suspect each other, and we both suspect SPM. Just the way we do things!
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“If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.” |
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#9 | |||
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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And I have just been worried. The dreams have been quite instrumental in all the victories the villages have had - and that's 4/5 - as I have played the game (forgetting those "outside the Downs" -hints - that truly spoil the game - even if we win with them). I appreciate your contribution to the discussion - when you show (or try to show) me wrong. That's helpful for all of us. But I might like to ask, what makes you so jumpy to go on after others during the first day? Not kind of your way of playing? And about everyone hinting something Owlishly... Quote:
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I would like to hear, why should the Owl play by the standard modus operandi in a game when the dynamics are so different, where after her/his death everything might be down the drain? How is it, that we can "operate" in confidence, and that the ducks will be paranoid? I see you quick to rebutt ideas, but how about making some "reasoned cases" that you so much seemed to rever earlier in your post? But anyhow. Good to see you drawn into the discussion with some stakes. Brave of you. I hope you others dare to take that move too. Otherwise we just give this day to the ducks for free.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#10 | |
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Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Lord. Things are hotting up.
I do take issue with Roa on one minor point- Quote:
I tell you wereducks of true skill do not slay victims because of who they are, but because of what they do. This Nogrod/Roa spat seems sudden and almost amusing, considering their original Unity against the Forces of Saucie. I almost feel an accusation of orchestration coming on...
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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#11 | |||||||
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it.
Posts: 1,696
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Edit: Cross posted with Ang
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We can't all be Roas when it comes to analysing... -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen |
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#12 | |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I merely scanned, apologies if I missed something. First to answer some things:
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In the last few games I followed / participated in Anguirel and Spawn were (one of the) first to die. Incidentally, in the games Anguirel and I were in together, either he or I or even both of us died before the second Night had ended.Don't read too much in to it. I could not name all fabulous players in this game, now could I? As for Nogrod, so desperately wanting to discuss the new Seer. There are three basic things the Owl could do: - Declare himself rather early on - Leave (obvious) clues - Hoping to slip under the radar for a long time All three ideas have merits and disadvantages and the Owl should decide him/herself what is best. Honestly, every player has a different style and they should react to the situation as they see fit. You are putting too much stress on the issue, Nogrod. If I were the Owl, I would have a plan and would want everyone to stop speculating. -- I will have to read more closely to form actual suspicions. Nogrod and Roa_Aoife jump out with their continuous bickering, but then again Ordos can launch at each other as well. I trust Mormegil for now, even though he is a silly idle Elf. I am currently unsure about Anguirel and Saucepan Man. Both seem different somehow. The others have said too little to be on my radar as of yet. I am going to reread everything now. Be back soon. |
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#13 |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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I tried to be patient with you orc but you push me to far.
First, elves are not Tarks .Second, I pay people because I can and I use my own mind for high and mighty matters, not the slaying of some ducks. Now I've been thinking and while generally I'm not a fan of owl (seer) talk I think I have something to add preemptively before the goose, if he/she is intelligent will do. I see no harm in stating this though there are some that think ill of me. Let's think about this shall we: 1. When dead the roles will not be revealed, this includes goose and owl. 2. If the owl proclaims him/herself we will not know of the truth unless we try his/her words. 3. The goose wants to help the Ducks 4. What better way to help than flush out the owl early on? A strategem I would use, if I were the goose, would be to declare myself the owl on day 3, maybe day 2, and hope that the real owl declares themself. So if you are the real owl and an imposter declares themself, use your discretion. How is that SpM and Ang? Satisfy you? Now to get this out of the way, hopefully, I suspect both Kath and SpM of Duckery and say they should hang.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#14 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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If we all have even one good (or just plausible) idea, then the Owl will have much to think about - and we can communally drop the bad ones - to help her/him to judge the situation in the best way possible.
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#15 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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If everyone just declared a random vote, with one post on the first day, what would we have on the day2? Not much, but random accusations based on ill-informed hunches of those who had voted for an innocent to death... That's the kind of game the ducks would like to play. But we must fight back! Why to give the day1 to the werecreatures for free, just hiding our own backs?
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#16 |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Ok.
The thing troubling me is, that the normally wise seer-tactics may not be good Owl tactics. I'm sure the Owl has gotten that. I don't think s/he is a dummy. But even the wise need assistance - and I'm not saying, I'm the one to assist the wise - but we all together. See Lmp's game-planning in the TiG -thread. He's clearly an intelligent man - and has tested his game beforehand, but still there seem to be problems which he will have to revise. I myself like to go on coming up with theories, on how to protect the village the best way, and have handed them out for everyone to scrutinize. That way we have been able to abandon them, when they are faulty, or stick to them, when they are fine. I know that has brought about much controvesy, but that's the price one has to pay for playing to the village. So even as I totally trust our Owl to make her/his own decisions, we might try to help her/him. But I can't do it alone... Others need to join. But I'll start, as no-one else seems ready to play openly (I know this is hard). So. No tracks left after death. What does this mean? Normal tactics (hanker down, gather information and reveal them when you have enough - and back yourself up by leaving hints behind you to be recollected after your death & general revealment of being the seer) might not be the best code of conduct here, as every day passing makes it more probable, that an untimely death comes to visit, and all has been in vain? All dreams totally lost? Well that's my first question: is there any reasonable way for the shaman to work confidently for a longer period? In a normal game there is. But now any hinting might call the ducks around at night, and we rest would be left uniformed. Maybe it would be good, if we all ordos would go on hinting of our Owlish knowledge - just to confuse the ducks? I'm not sure about this one. In the bad instance, it would just leave us with even more confusion - if the ducks get the Owl untimely. But otherwise, it might give our Owl more time. So self-sacrifying villagers needed? I could personally go for this... if you others don't bring good cases against it.My second question: the Owl might have a dream of a wolf. What to do? In a normal game - if the situation is not desperate - the seer could just go on unnoticed (leaving a track). But now? Is it wise to possibly die with a knowledge of one duck? This I found a hounting question. Can you others see the advantages or disadvantages of this situation better than me? There might be some reasons to reveal oneself after one duck-dream. But then, I see, that at least myself, I would be somewhat hesitant, wanting to go on with the game and hoping for the best... Or do we have ways to make those dreams known? I understand, these should not be discussed here, as there we might come to the area Spm was worried about - and I am too. But just saying, there is, would help the Owl, and make her/him think more clearly. And before you just say: that must be a duck, trying to make our Owl reveal her/himself prematurely, just think about the logic of this game! The Owl is not a seer... EDIT: X-posted with Spm and Ang
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#17 | |
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Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,461
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#18 | |
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Maundering Mage
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,651
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” |
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#19 |
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Twisted Taleswapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity
Posts: 1,706
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Well I have read through and I noticed that Nogrod,SPM,Roa and Ang are all going at it. I know in most *ahem* games Nogrod is always the first to urge awareness of the gifted and Roa normally has something to say about it. SPM I have not played alot with ,but I am pretty sure this is how he plays. and Ang...well he normally gets killed fairly quickly. First day analysising is useless for me...so I won't do it. It is nice to see a loud village though for once. I say we look at the quiet ones who tend to slip below the radar for most of the game and not lynch our loud and multiple talkers.
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grand return?........ |
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#20 | ||
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Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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#21 | |
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Twisted Taleswapper
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity
Posts: 1,706
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grand return?........ |
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#22 |
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Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,461
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Time for more substance.....
Traditionally, I have tended to find first and early posting suspicious but this theory has been less reliable of late and I seem to recall that Glirdan, Morm and Valier have posted early before without proving guilty. In anycase these are "I'm here posts" . Unremarkable so far but we are only an hour in.
More interesting is Cailín stating so early who she is not voting for. this could be a hint at giftedness or a duck-trick or a bluff or nothing. Since only the ducks are a gang of three to name two others would be a bold move for a wolf. However the Owl and the Hawk/Nightingale Alliance/Combo/Whatever to avoid creeping out the Saucepan Orc (!), with the use of what I regarded as a neutral term "league", know about one other so to name two might be a fudge. However it seems a clumsy and premature tactic. I don't know Cailín much from personal experience but she has the reputation which suggests greater sophistication. So this is a puzzle which perhaps will become clearer. At this stage I am very much just tossing balls in the air and seeing what happens. Ang makes the first attempt address the situation seriously. That is a mark in his favour but I must not be prejudiced by my fondness for Mozartian opera -Hopsassa! As a birdcatcher he could prove useful unless he has developed webbed feet Slightly puzzled by his reference to the words about the seer?Then follows a lot of stating of the obvious regarding the conditions (again understandable - I rather think my first post counts as such)... and Nilp's self vote. For now I will take this as an honourable route if it is the only participation possible. I don't know if he makes a habit of this but I shall not necessarily be always so lenient. Non-participation makes life so difficult for the true villagers and often plays into the hands of the "three". Long and insubstantial post from SpM followed by a short but pertinent one by Kath. I seem to remember SpM being Mr- Strategy- and- Plans in previous times.... seems a bit off ..... especially since he goes after Nogrod who could be seen as picking up on Lalaith's sensible suggestion to discuss general strategy. I am going to break up this post since there have been quite a lot of posts since I started this and there may well be more profitable ways to spend my time. Especially since you have more time to read through the posts for yourselves than I have to decide my vote.
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#23 |
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Byronic Brand
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The 1590s
Posts: 2,778
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Mith, the bit that puzzled you was a bad Malbeth gag...
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Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso |
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#24 |
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The Pearl, The Lily Maid
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And the final villager checks in. Incorporeally, of course, as it is just too much of a hassle to climb down from my mountaintop. Great view from up here, though.
I've read over the current loquacity, and I'm going to think some things through before voting later tonight. But a few quick points: Val, in a village this size (truly the largest I have ever overseen), I'm not sure if we can call the ultra-loudness of a mere 4 villagers a loud village. Roa right now disturbs me a bit. I am used to seeing her careful and thoughtful, and she seems to have thrown caution to the wind, picking little arguments with people on everything but who the ducks might be, and drawing all our attention to the question of why she's being so aggressive. I don't think she's a duck, because I see an evil Roa as even more cautious than usual, but this ultra-aggressiveness is worrisome, especially with a Goose about. Noggie, dear...you're beating a dead horse again. Unlike many of the villagers, I am so used to seeing you take a hardline position day 1 and argue about it until the village loses its collective hearing, that I tend, at this point, to trust in your innocence. I look forward to seeing you settle into your more helpful late-game persona. Frankly, I'd like to hear more from most of the village (As I'm sure they'd like to hear from me).
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<=== Lookee, lookee, lots of IM handles! |
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#25 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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But yeah. One has to do, what one sees best the first day, and then on the second, and so on... And it seems to be a bit different on other days than day1. So if I'm alive, rest assured...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#26 |
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Pilgrim Soul
Join Date: May 2004
Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle...
Posts: 9,461
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I'm tired, hormonal, my blood sugar is crashing and I want to go home and eat and if noone is talking I may as well. Has anyone got else anything to say before I vote?
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“But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.”
Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace |
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#27 |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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As the kind of European vote is getting nearer, we should try to get some things going... (We probably have two large voting cycles with these "deadlines")
I just watched out for a totally different thing from what we have mainly been discussing about - and possibly insignificant, as there is time still - but anyhow. Untill now: Glirdy has posted twice, saying nothing (the first posts of the day, so can't blame him on that) Nilp has made only a self-vote. Kath has made one "catching the rainbow -thing and explained the past of her, Morm & Sauce. Sleepy has posted once, saying he will vote randomly. Elu has posted once, just checking in. Lalaith has posted twice, being very careful not to say much of this or that. Jenny & Valier have posted little, but taken some stances... The others, I think, have posted somewhat decently. But as I said, there is time still...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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