Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Nogrod]

Roa!

You are either too sincere, or then a frustrated wolf. And I really can't say which, for now...

But I must say, that vote of yours looks very suspicious! For your chance of being right seems to be 1/32. Well, that's a chance - and we should not openly outrule it, but still, I wouldn't bet on it...

Must come back to reading this.

[Nogrod]

Btw. Roa (again)

The only good reason to kill Zali tonight is another ranger-revelation. You know that as well as we others know it... So why this vote?

Or maybe it's you two? As you see, suspicions are easy to throw at people. I would like to see better. But still, I do not like Roa's sudden vote at all.

I try to make something like a Sherlock Holmes -puzzle, trying to cross-examine different possible pairs. It might take a while, but I'll keep my eye open and see the thread every now and then.

[Nogrod]

Triple posting: Where are you people?

So what do we know now about us people?

Now living:
Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy: A barrel of apples
Roa_Aoife: aspiring ballad writer

“revelations” (by):
day1 not known (Shaman)
day2 Jenny –orc (Zali)
day3 Sleepy – innocent (Nogrod)
day4 Nogrod - innocent (Naria)
day5 Zali – innocent (Grendelien)

This looks somewhat trustworthy, as those dreams have criss-crossed each others. There is always the "maybe", but the probability of an orc having a dream of another orc is quite low...

If we would trust the dreamers too (from 3/4 to 2/3 probabilities), it would leave us with the unknowns:
Caran, Celuien, Roa...

As I am kind of “double credited” (shaman wanted to see, whether I was fooling with my revelation). It leaves the situation of the dreamers as Naria being a bit less suspicious than Grendelien – but that’s only mathematics, not anything we should jump for at this point...

But then people getting over each other – or defending them.

There is a nice threesome, that looks quite convincingly innocent to me now (it could be two orcs using an ordo to come along with them, of course).

That is Grendelien – Zali – Celuien.

Celuien’s depiction of her actions match with my suspicions – I thought she was taking the role of a shaman as the situation made it possible (I myself thought of adding to the confusion among the orcs by “revealing” myself as the shaman on DAY4 – I checked, that I could have had a convincing case: Celuien was first on all my innocent-lists DAY1, so that could have been the shaman-hint, if I would have been dead after NIGHT1 – happily or not, Naria’s revealment kind of undid my possibilities of doing it, as no shaman dreams of himself...), and I have tried to back her up ever since. She seems very logical in her twists and turns with this shaman impersonation – and possibly has pulled the leg of those orcs for a couple of times... (killing Diamond as believing her being protected + trying her last night)

She has the theory of orcs going after Spawn the first two nights, because the open suspicion on Roa (by Spawn, that is). That is believable, if what Zali tells us is true, that she defended Spawn the first night. (Btw. she also trusts Naria.)

Zali admitted protecting Celuien last night. If she’s the real ranger, she wouldn’t lie. So if there is no rivalling ranger claim, we should believe her – and thence believe Celuien also... Of course there might be some wolfish thing here, but, wait for Grendelien... (Btw. She is declaring to vote for Naria.)

Grendelien dreamt of Zali last night. Added, that we could trust Celuien as well. Somewhat she is also seeing Roa a bit less suspicious. If she would be an orc, she probably wouldn't have told us about Zali's innocence - had she the dream! An orc, having an innocent dream today, would just have shut her mouth? Or tried to confuse us by being seemingly helpful...

I’ll come with more in a minute (½ hour or something...)