Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's almost closing time, so here's the vote count:

Kitanna 2
Naria 1

Have we heard from everyone today?

2½ hours to go - as we have one more hour by Farael, as the starting was delayed...

But good question. Legolas iS I think I haven't seen, but others missing?

[Nogrod]

”The case Grendelien” – read as a Devil’s advocate...

I thought long before I posted this. I see the mood has changed, and what I started as a quite harmless occupation of looking at certain people who have avoided any thorough analysis or negative interpretations, seems to me now quite doubtful. But after all, it's just a game.

So Grendelien & others, read carefully! This is not an open accusation, but the thing I have gotten as I have analyzed your posts with the eye of you being an orc! That is not to say you are one.

I'm sure, that a similar story could be wrought out of almost anyone...

#24
if the dreamer tells us the dream, s/he will most likely be killed if the dream is incriminating

Trying to distract us? The dreamer is not the first to be killed...

#83
Ah, I've been beating my brains over this this choice for some time..this is a very difficult decision to make. It is true that Diamond18's posts lack significant substance, which is suspicious, but the detailed analyses of each elf (or orc) by certain players, such as Celuien and Norgrod could be a diversion. It's really hard to say. My suspicions of everyone are high at this point. However, I will have to cast my vote for

++Glirdan

This is funny: managing to cast suspicion on three vocal villagers, and then giving a vote for a fourth innocent...

#139 is so carefully crafted! Throwing accusations on Caranlodien, binding them to the innocence of Spawn – which the orc would know beforehand –and withdraws herself by saying she just goes by her paranoia!

Though I was suspicious (I need to find a synonym for this word) early on, at this point, I can find little evidence, other than my normal paranoia, that Caranlondien is a wereorc. Her posts seem reasonable (gah, more paranoia rising to the surface) and unhasty. If we later discover that Spawn is innocent, this may be some ilk of indication that she is a wereorc...but at this point, everyone is making claims, so I cannot find evidence to prove her guilty.

Then she “worries” about Celuien and Nogrod, toned down by:

This is no reason to believe right off that Nogrod or Celuien are definitely wolves, or are definitely innocent.

If orc-stuff, very well crafted!

Then comes this quite interesting posting sequence: #190 & #193

At #190 she seems to be an expert on were-gaming, outlining the possible ways the orcs would think and act, basically seeing lots of defensiveness as a sign of orcsery. Then on #193 she goes on saying, she would have voted for Spawn or Nogrod (not the two I might think of having foremostly been on the defence!)

, but that Zali’s announcement would regard her some analysis over Jenny’s posts and other analysis over her.

So is she trying to divert us? Hoping the others would also think, that there is some analyzing to do? About half an hour before the deadline, when everything hanged on the balance of action?

After my post:

I don't think you need to. Jenny has been dreamed of, and I trust it, because it would be fool's work to be an orc-Zali and to lie about the one dreamt of. We should find the lie out immediately after Jenny's death, and would kill Zali the next day...

She very quickly retreated and started to play a villager... Even trying to make things nice and right in her post #203

You're right, Nogrod, Azaelia, and Sleepy, I don't know what I was thinking...if Jenny's innocent, then we know Azaelia was lying...but I trust Azaelia's truthful!

& #209...

Then there was this quite an odd exhange of posts between Grendelien and Diamond (posts #260-263). I must admit, I didn’t quite get the point.

#267 Analysis of possibilities between me and Sleepy as I had revealed my dream.

But why this haste to speculate my orcness? I don’t think it bad to raise the question, but why to go then from my post, stating:

Nogrod#278
Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?) Also see Spawn's analysis on her! See for yourselves! This is just a "look and see" -warning. I don't know what to make of her. Looks very good - and thence very bad...

To this:

#287
I was planning on analyzing other villagers’ posts, but Nogrod’s recent suspicion of me came as a surprise.
... LOTS OF SPECULATION OF POSSIBLE ORCNESS IN HERE ...
Right now Nogrod seems the most suspicious to me. It is possible that he is an ordo, but my suspicions tell me he could very well be an orc.

Jumping around a bit – but still staying calm enough to make the save at the end (“it is possible...”)?

I don’t know, what to say about this. If there is a bandwagon tonight, you others will see, how it was started. Caran helped a lot in that. I try to hang on long enough to make some sort of analysis over her too, but let’s see.

I would hate to see Grendelien as an wereorc, and my guts tell me she isn't one. But I hope you others (Grendelien included!) help me with this. Mainly I would like to hear some points concerning the stuff I have bolded. Remember: only two people are orcs, others are goodies. Let's be careful, about the reasons we trust and join the lynch today...

[Nogrod]

And all of you: remember the thought behind Devil's advocacy! We should try a thought (here, a person) as hard as we can, and if we can't find a problem, we think her/him good! So this is also one way of building trust among each other.

[Grendelien]

[QUOTE=Nogrod]I don’t know, what to say about this. If there is a bandwagon tonight, you others will see, how it was started. Caran helped a lot in that. I try to hang on long enough to make some sort of analysis over her too, but let’s see.

I would hate to see Grendelien as an wereorc, and my guts tell me she isn't one. But I hope you others (Grendelien included!) help me with this.QUOTE]

Nogrod and the rest of the villagers, please understand me and take me as sincere when I say that I certainly would not want to start a bandwagon to lynch Nogrod, because a lot of consequences follow, and I certainly would not want to take responsibility for anything so drastic, especially if Nogrod is innocent. Even though I raised, rather boldly for my liking, what Nogrod's possible plans could be, and even though I may still vote for Nogrod at some point because mysuspicions are not put to rest, I would not want people to vote for you solely on the reasons I proposed. It would not be wise, because there is the possibility that I'm an orc too, (although I maintain my innocence). I don't think a majority vote for you is going to occur anytime soon because I'm sure people suspect me.
I am not going to ignore the chance [1) on my annoying list of possibilities)] that Nogrod is innocent. If you are innocent, and you have a plan in mind, you should probably not disclose it. And if you do have a plan as an innocent villager, I hope it is fulfilled. It would be awful, and I would feel awful, if you are not an orc and are lynched, because, assuming you're innocent, you are/would be a great asset to the village. I too would hate to see you as a wereorc, but the possibility remains, so I do not plan on taking you off my suspicions list anytime soon.
This post gives people another reason to suspect me for thinking I am backing off (for the possibility of Nogrod's innocence is very probable), but I'm not backing off as far as thinking Nogrod could be a severe threat. I hope, Nogrod and fellow villagers, that this explanation will suffice for the time being.