Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Caranlondien]

Jenny:

DAY ONE

#13: Agrees with Celuien that dreamers should not reveal their dreams immediately. Jokingly accuses Dancing Spawn, Roa, Sleepy, and Diamond

#27: Says she'll be in and out today. Tells village to quit obsessing over dreams. Says that revealing dreams helps the orcs narrow down who the Seer is, and thus Nogrod's fierce support for the plan makes her nervous.

#47: Lists those she finds suspicious: Nogrod, because she thinks he's supporting a bad idea; Diamond for "general hyperness"; and Sleepy for random vote.

#52: Votes for Diamond, for lack of substance.

DAY TWO

#108: Rejoices we are all still here, but says she almost wishes we knew who the "wolves" had gone after (hmm, wonder why she'd wish that ). Says she awaits Celuien's analysis with interest.

#121: Tells Diamond there is a big difference between volume and substance.

#136: Tries to explain away Diamond's suspicions of her by saying that she didn't object to a discussion about dreams, but did object to spending the whole day on them. Says she still finds Diamond pretty suspicious.

#157: Tells Nogrod she's suspicious of him. Says she thinks Dancing Spawn is innocent (noting most of the village is, too - perhaps trying to go along with the majority?).

By the time she made her next post, Jenny knew she was going to die. I have to assume that from this point on, she's doing her best to confuse us, and she's done a heck of a job...

#219: Implies Zali is another wereorc. Says both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name and are "sneaky sneaky". Implies one of the orcs is male, and another is experienced in the role. Tells the orcs not to kill the dreamer, but rather someone like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.
Votes for Grendelien, for "the joyful friendship we've been developing".

#222: Says Findeasea is a wolf.

#223: Says Naria is an orc.

#227: Sarcastically wishes Sleepy good luck in analyzing her posts.

#229: Says Naria really is an orc.

Summary: In her posts before the revelation that ensured her death, Jenny mostly talks about suspicions of Diamond. She initially suspects Dancing Spawn, but then (sensing the village's general opinion, I think) backs off and decides Spawn is innocent. She also mentions Roa, Sleepy, and Nogrod jokingly, and follows up suspicions on the latter two. She mentions Celuien (although only to say she eagerly awaits her analysis).

In her posts after it became clear she would die, she tells the other orcs to kill Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond. She also essentially asserts six things about the identities of the orcs:

1) Zali is an orc.
2) Both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name.
3) One of the orcs is male and another is experienced in the role.
4) Grendelien is an orc.
5) Findeasea is an orc.
6) Naria is an orc. (And she says this twice.)

Clearly, they can't all be true. Possibly, none of them is true. But, I suspect, at least one of them is true. Unfortunately... I have no idea which one(s).

EDIT: Cross-posted with a bunch of people...

[Nogrod]

When do I get to sleep!!?? Just have to make "just one comment" more...

The Jenny-analysis...

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

#47: Lists those she finds suspicious: Nogrod, because she thinks he's supporting a bad idea; Diamond for "general hyperness"; and Sleepy for random vote.

#219: Tells the orcs not to kill the dreamer, but rather someone like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.

#47 I think my idea is shining ever more brightly after these occasions...

#219 I think it should be read differently: she was talking to us villagers, to get rid of Spawn, Roa, myself and Diamond? Well, that should be checked... I was a bit confused myself about the subject of that sentence when I read it the first time.

Good night. (Good morning...)

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Jenny in post #219

No need for an orc to kill a dreamer, boys and girls, what are the odds he/she gets a dream again? Kill someone really threatening, like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

#219 I think it should be read differently: she was talking to us villagers, to get rid of Spawn, Roa, myself and Diamond? Well, that should be checked... I was a bit confused myself about the subject of that sentence when I read it the first time.

Actually, that's how I read it at first, too, but after re-reading it, I think she is talking to the orcs. She starts out talking about how there's no reason for the orcs to kill a dreamer (I guess she means Zali?), and her second sentence seems to be in reference to the first, so it looks like she's still talking about the orcs doing the killing.

Even more cunning, perhaps it's meant to be ambiguous, to confuse us even more...

[Caranlondien]

And I, too, must get some sleep. Hopefully things will seem clearer on the morrow...

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Actually, that's how I read it at first, too, but after re-reading it, I think she is talking to the orcs. She starts out talking about how there's no reason for the orcs to kill a dreamer (I guess she means Zali?), and her second sentence seems to be in reference to the first, so it looks like she's still talking about the orcs doing the killing.

Frankly, I think she wanted the villagers to find Spawn, Nogrod, Roa, and Diamond as suspicious. By telling the Orcs to kill them, she could be pretending to bluff, by basically telling two of the Orcs to kill themselves. That's what I'm guessing she wanted some villagers to think. Look who's on the list.

Spawn = Innocent
Me = The person she's been trying to get lynched
Nogrod = possibly innocent, looking so if he's honest about Sleepy
Roa = the person who would be extremely suspicious if Spawn had been the Shaman

So right now I'm thinking this is a case of speaking the truth to make it look like lies. Or just speaking the truth, period.

There is a possibility this is split in half, with me and Spawn innocents and Roa and Nogrod Orcs. But I don't believe that. My instincts tell me all four are probably the same and therefore all four are innocent.

[Diamond18]

The Crazy Orc That Was
Or, an Analysis of Jenny's Posts

Jenny's posts:

#13 - #47 - #52 - #121 - 3108 - #136 - #157 - #129 - #222 - #223 - #227 - #229


The thing that stands out most to me, about Jenny, is understandably that she was my loudest accuser. I did not at first understand why she was so quick to jump on me for lack of substance, I began to suspect that she was an Orc who had sniffed out an easy scapegoat, and now I'm sure of it.

In her second post, it's Nogrod, Diamond, and Sleepy she points the finger at. I am thinking she was testing the waters to see who she could get others to bandwagon for. Especially since Nogrod has claimed to dream of Sleepy's innocence. If this is true, that shows that Jenny accused three innocents in this post. Like I said, testing the waters.

Third post, she votes for me. I later said this about this post:

Originally Posted by Me

#54 Votes for Diamond saying not enough substance. (Diamond finds this whole trend highly annoying and no fun at all, and thinks Jenny is one to talk, but then she’s already spoken her piece about that. )

(It was post #54 when I wrote my analysis, and now it is #52. You'll remember some posts had to be deleted, changing the post numbers after that.)

To this Jenny was quick to say:

Diamond, there is a big difference between volume and substance.

Still going after me, and probably feeling the heat of my suspicion. After I wrote a more detailed opinion post, she wrote a more detailed defense of herself. This can all be considered rubbish now that we know she was guilty. I was right to suspect her posting and she knew it.

So anyway, because Jenny seemed set on me as her favored scapegoat, I really have to wonder: what were her fellow Orcs doing? Were they supporting her in this endeavor? Were they playing the Good Cop to her Bad Cop? I know that a few players agreed with Jenny about me (Naria, LiS, Kitanna, Caran, Nogrod and Celuien at first) and others didn't (Grendilien, Nogrod and Celuien eventually, Roa, and Sleepy) so now I'm of course wanting to look closely at these people. Though Nogrod and Sleepy may be off the hook.

Of course, her fellow Orcs may have decided to mostly ignore me in order to distance themselves entirely from Jenny.

And then, I may be totally narcissistic to think any of the posts to or about me have any real significance. But Jenny didn't make many posts and most of them (pre-outing) either were excuses as to why she couldn't be active, or accusations of me.

I'm not sure I even want to try analyzing her posts after she was slated for death. They're obviously only there to drive us crazy.