Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

As promised... The Analysis... Within the categories, there is no particular order.

Nogrod: He seems normal enough. Nothing that he's been saying is sending up any red flags.

Celuien: Logically pointed out that revealing dreams is going to get us "picked off one by one".

Diamond: Posts are chatty, cheerful, and in character...pretty much standard procedure for the first day...It wouldn't be a problem except that the majority of them are that way. I just don't see much substance. I'm willing to let it slide for now, being, as it is, the first day. It does earn her a place on the "watch me" list.

Glirdan: Is busy in RL, makes a random vote. I'm putting him on my "watch list", because as I said before, I really don't like random votes.

Caranlondien: Suggests that dreamers come straight out, which is flawed because it would be very easy for an Orc to have a dream about an innocent and then point them out as an orc. I like her later assesment that so little happens on day ones just because we all sit around saying that nothing can happen.

Roa_Aoife: I don't like the suggestion that a random vote is better than no vote at all. The truth is that neither is a good option, and I would personally prefer to abstain from voting than to make a random vote.

Kitanna: First post is strong and to the point. She makes some good points, and for now, I am not worried about her.

Findeasea: Has posted too little to really register on the radar for me. I'm content to wait, though I'd like to hear more from her as time goes by.

Grendelien: See above

Naria: And...wow. Another see above.

JennyHallu: Is logical and tries to move discussion along.

Sleepy Ranger: Without participating in the discussion at all, he can proclaim from his first post that his vote will most likely be random or safe. It sends up a flag for me. To just expect your vote to be random is to overlook some things that could possibly be staring you right in the face. So he goes on the Watch Me! list.

Dancing Spawn: Looks innocent and logical to me, at least for now.

Farael: Appearing from beyond the grave to make a (quite funny) post of nonsense on the subject of wraiths... Suspicious. Just kidding.

Legolas in Spandex: Hasn't shown up yet. Where are you?

The following lists may be completely wrong, but hey, I have to start somewhere. The fact that only three people wound up in my watch me! category may or may not be suspicious. I won't be so bold as to claim that they are orcs as of yet, but I think that they bear watching, at any rate.

Leaning towards Innocent.
Me
Dancing Spawn


Watch Me!
Diamond
Sleepy
Glirdan


Hasn't shown up:
Legolas in Spandex


Don't know.
Caranlondien
Nogrod
Grendelien
Findëasëa
Celuien
Glirdan
Naria
Roa_Aoife
Kitanna
Jenny

[Nogrod]

After my being an idiot, here's the current vote, with my comments...

An update, considering Findëasëa's vote legal, due to her inexperience. I guess we all agree (well Glirdan possibly not, but... ) that interpretation?

Roa 1 (Spawn I)
Diamond 2 (Celuien II, Jenny VI)
Glirdan 2 (Roa III, Findëasëa VII)
Jenny 1 (Sleepy IV)
Sleepy 1 (Glirdan V)

Even though I have my suspicions on Diamond and Glirdy: they have played quite unsubstantially, comparing to their normal behaviour, and Diamond maybe somewhat weirdly, but I still just don't quite feel at home with this one. Well, who should there be in front? I don't know...

Happily we have some time left.

I would very much like to hear something from Diamond.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Azaelia

Caranlondien: Suggests that dreamers come straight out, which is flawed because it would be very easy for an Orc to have a dream about an innocent and then point them out as an orc. I like her later assesment that so little happens on day ones just because we all sit around saying that nothing can happen.

I didn't suggest that dreamers come straight out; I said that the suggestion that dreamers come straight out was flawed... I think that's what you meant to say?

I'm torn about my vote. My gut instinct is for Diamond18 over Sleepy, because she's been talkative without saying much of substance. But that's really very little to go on... however, since it's Day 1 and there's no voting record to go by (and I'm not sure I'll be able to get back before time's up), I'll have to go with my gut.

++Diamond18

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I didn't suggest that dreamers come straight out; I said that the suggestion that dreamers come straight out was flawed... I think that's what you meant to say?

My bad. Yes, that's what I meant. My apologies--I told you I wasn't feeling well

Sleepy, what's this? Channeling the famous Nilp, are we?

I'm going to have to vote now, and honestly, it's between Sleepy and Glirdan. I'm happy to give Diamond the benefit of the doubt for now. Her most recent post indicates innocence to me.

I agree with Kitanna that sleepy's move at the beginning of the day was a bit bold for a wereorc. But he and Glirdan send up equally red flags, for reasons I have discussed before.

I think I'll vote

++Glirdan

today. I have already expressed my reasons for suspicion of him, so I am going to act on it. My apologies, Glirdan, if you're innocent. It's the first day, and while this vote is based on actual suspicion (That I've already mentioned in my analysis before), there really isn't much to go on yet.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

Caranlondien: Suggests that dreamers come straight out, which is flawed because it would be very easy for an Orc to have a dream about an innocent and then point them out as an orc.

Kitanna: First post is strong and to the point. She makes some good points, and for now, I am not worried about her.

I wouldn't like to bring this to the fore again, but well. I just feel I have to (remember Jenny's point on me: fighting against a good idea...)

Anyone bored with the topic should run over this message. It is not intended as a general discussion topic at this hour.
So please see this point you make on Caranlodien (probably isn't her point, but mine, but anyhow, that's not the point, the argument is).

Yes, it would be easy for an orc to have a dream about an innocent and then to point her/him as an orc. But what then? We lynch an innocent and discover the innocence. Do you think, we will have any trouble finding the one to lynch the next day, as this deceiving has been revealed by the death of an innocent? The exchange ratio of 1:1 (villager vs. wolf) is more than good!

And to Kitanna's points. F.ex. Should the shaman reveal a dream s/he has gotten to her/himself? Of course not! That would be the stupidest thing to do! Or the second point about a villager having a dream about an orc, revealing it, and then be spared by the wolfs - and lynched the day after! Hello! If someone reveals an orc dream, then that orc will be lynched and we are one point nearer to the goal! Why should we run lynching someone, who has given us an orc?

The only problem here I see is an orc betraying a fellow orc, and thus achieving credibility by helping in the lynch of an orc. But I don't see, why we should be running to declare all the dreamers innocent? The dreamed-of's are innocent (or wolves, but known one's), not the dreamers.

But as I said much earlier, there are other problems in this plan (#34), and I don't support it any more!

Let's get back to today's bussiness... Just had to defend an idea from wrong accusations.