Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Poor Farael! We shall find those Orcs and avenge his death. That said, I'll get down to business.


Many have expressed their opinion about the dreams. I trust that people can make their own minds how to act if they receive a dream, but I'd like to say one thing.

Originally Posted by Celuien

Actually, though, it might not be a bad idea for each of us to find some way of leaving obscure hints so that if someone receives a dream and dies before being able to reveal it, there's still some way of picking up on what was known.

Rather than leaving "obscure hints", I'd prefer having reasoned cases. I believe that once we recover from the shock, everyone starts accusing, suspecting and defending other villagers. It is easier to hide a dream into a good case since there will be so many of them around anyway (I hope) that the orcs can't tell which one of the arguments is based on a dream. And if the orcs should kill the one who had the dream, we shall see easily, whom that person dreamed of.

Okay, this post is just to let you know that I finally got here. More later once I've reread everything.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

And if the orcs should kill the one who had the dream, we shall see easily, whom that person dreamed of.

No! On the contrary: we shall never know, that that person had the dream in the first place! You can't come back from behind the grave to announce, that "btw. I was one who had a dream!". So the dream is completely wasted - and we don't even have the "seer-archives", to give us help on the later date... Believe me: I have really been worried about this disadvantage we have here.

And Jenny: I might be narrowing down the chances for the orcs (hadn't thought of that), but also narrowing the scope for the seer! But I admit, not knowing, which one of these is the heavier thing.

But from a somewhat different reason, I say my plan is a flawed one, and badly. So let's forget it for now...

The reason is as follows. At least a good seer (don't know, how a good shaman would do) would try to find out first about the most experienced and "best" players. If we that way openly reveal them as innocents, then wolves killing them do not look suspicious - even if those people would have hit right before their nightly deaths. So we risk our best villagers by following my plan. Not good.

But that said, this looks quite grim: we will be wasting a lot of dreams and therefore, kind of play without a seer (except if the dream is on an orc, when of course every decent villager voices that out loud and clear).

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by spawn

Rather than leaving "obscure hints", I'd prefer having reasoned cases. I believe that once we recover from the shock, everyone starts accusing, suspecting and defending other villagers. It is easier to hide a dream into a good case since there will be so many of them around anyway (I hope) that the orcs can't tell which one of the arguments is based on a dream. And if the orcs should kill the one who had the dream, we shall see easily, whom that person dreamed of.

Good point. I really haven't decided what I'll do should I be fortunate enough to be granted a dream.

Not a whole lot of time to post right now. So far, as usual, most of you are looking completely innocent to me. I have a couple of theories, but not enough to post on now, as I haven't enough time to review and attempt to build a case at this point. And there are a few more villagers I'd like to hear more from first.

Oh, and I retract my random triad silliness from earlier. Derned illuminator never did work properly.

[Naria]

Roa, I said that because it's true. They will pick us off one by one and someone coming forth and saying so and so is an ordo(for sure) or worse a gifted will definitely ensure that person's death. And yes the orcs will pick us off one by one regardless, but I think that someone saying someone is an ordo will just help the orcs a little too much for my liking.

That being said, I agree that we should just drop this for the time being and concentrate on finding us some Orcsies.

The second quote was not mine, sorry.


PS: My computer is going in for servicing right away, but I will try my best to get on a computer somewhere and vote before the Day's end.

[Kitanna]

Day ends in a couple of hours, does it not? Or am I just really messed up timewise?
Well in any case I don't have a whole lot to add. Since my first post I see little that would lead me to be overly suspicious of anyone.

A lot was said on the dreams and it appears everyone has reached a consensus about not revealing the dreams as they come.
Plenty of in character comments, but that's not much to go on.
Nogrod continues to push for the revealing of dreams in post 28.
Sleepy has openly proclaimed a random vote. Not that random voting is bad, but I just wish he'd wait before making such a declaration. A lot can happen from the beginning and end of the day. I suppose it just irks me when a declaration like that is made without the actual vote being in the same post. Meh, but that's just me.
Norgrod continues to his defense of the shaman dreams in post 34. You seem to stand alone on this Nogrod. In a regular seer situation you'd never tell the seer to come forward like you would with the shaman dreams. I say treat each dreamer like a seer and let them come forward from their own judgement. And with that I hope this will be the last time I give my opinion on the subject today.
Spawn has given her thoughts on various villagers and what she has said made sense to me, though I'm not so sure I agree with it all. But those she mentioned (Roa and Diamond mostly) deserve some looking at.

EDIT: So that's most of the major points since I last came on. It is not really much to go on. Most posts have revealed little and been quite unhelpful.

[Nogrod]

Ok. I'll get to it too. I have read the whole discussion again and have some remarks.

First of all, I totally agree with Jenny, that the kind of “I agree”-stuff, with no reasoning, or points to clarify their agreement, are suspicious. I would also add, that clearly flawed reasoning is suspicious too. I believe, as Jenny does, that we are all intelligent people, and then flawed reasoning would just point to a deliberate “turning away the discussion” from the real danger for the orcs.

Secondly, I find all who say, that the one can’t do anything on the first day, suspicious (if my memory serves me right, out of the 4 games I have played, we have caught a WW three times on the first day! – for different reasons, to be sure, but nevertheless) – at least, if they use it as a scapegoat to avoid good discussion.

Thirdly: anyone fighting against a good idea is an orc!

The third one put aside, here is, what I can say up to now (the "agree"-issue being the shaman-vote):

Celuien plays very-very carefully, but thoughtfully (those random-accusations put aside).

Roa seems to be her reflective self, making good points. Though I can’t understand, how she could have meddled my line to be one of Naria’s, and then asking for explanations from Naria.

Jenny first goes with the current (“I agree” with some bad reasoning), but then goes on to point some grounded reasons for nervousness. Criticises my idea with a good point. Asks for better focus.

Spawn agrees, but demands reasoned cases. Makes somewhat an analysis on other players (or some of them: notes Diamond speaking nonsense, quite fast on suspecting Roa, gives a kind of benefit of doubt to Findëasëa, wonders Sleepy)

Caranlodien agrees with the concensus – also notes that there is one. But clearly gives a point, why it should be accepted (not revealing the “strategy” to the orcs). Is considerate in her last post.



Grendelien makes the "I agree" move with some points, but also bad reasoning.

Glirdan goes too to the “I agree”, but with very bad reasoning (check #9) – and misreads grossly Roa’s ideas on #5.

Kitanna makes the “I agree”, confessing to go by gut feeling – and then giving very bad reasoning indeed. Continuing, in her last post to grossly misunderstand me again (I'm not pushing it forwards any more: I stated, that I found a flaw on it!)...

Findëasëa makes the "I agree" move with no grounds at all.

Naria makes the "I agree" move with some bad reasoning.


NB. Bad reasoning can here be interpreted in various ways. If I would have analyzed myself, I would have used the same characterisation of my first post at least... It's anything from really flawed reasons to thoughtlessness etc.



Diamond acts suspiciously. Mostly chit-chat (in role, I admit), but otherwise just “I agree” with no reasoning + stating, that there is nothing really to do.

Sleepy announces to be voting in random, or safe today, and then pleads everyone not to kill him...

[Caranlondien]

Nogrod, thanks for the synopsis/analysis. I must add that, as a recent newbie myself, I sympathize with Findëasëa and Grendelien. I don't think I'll vote for either of them today, since, whatever other factors are at work in their posts, there's a "newness factor" at work too. The potential confusion caused by newness should wear off in a bit, and until then, I'll be content to keep an eye on them.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Secondly, I find all who say, that the one can’t do anything on the first day, suspicious (if my memory serves me right, out of the 4 games I have played, we have caught a WW three times on the first day! – for different reasons, to be sure, but nevertheless) – at least, if they use it as a scapegoat to avoid good discussion.

I agree - perhaps the only reason things often don't get done on Day 1 is that people just sit around saying how nothing can be done!

From both Nogrod's and Dancing Spawn's lists, I find Diamond18 most suspicious. I tend to view lots of posts that say little of substance as a cover for guilt. Of course, my ancestors have been known to be wrong on that count...

Sleepy seems suspicious too, but I think he's posted too little to really judge. Please do speak up, my dear barrel of apples! (Mmm, apples sound good...)

[Roa_Aoife]

Naria I am terribly sorry. For some reason I read your post and Nogrod's post as one. That's what I get for rushing in before class....

Spawn, my response to Jenny was as much nonsense as the accusation. As for my ideas on random voting- if at the end of the day we have no suspicion to go on, a moderate spread of random votes increases our chances of catching a wolf. I hope to have something to go on, but if others don't, then so be it. Like I said before, a random vote is better than no vote.

EDIT: Cross posted with Caran

[Farael]

We interrupt your game to bring you a fantabulous announcement!!

We are the owners of the Barrow Downs and because of an error on a shipment, we are currently over-stocked with wraiths!!! That is right, we have more wraiths than what we can handle so we are practically giving them away!!!

Wraiths have many uses, ask them to scare your friends away, scare your girlfriend so that you can save her or have a week long discussion about who exactly is that Tom Bombadill fellow!!!

Just call 1-800-Oh-My-Wraith and you can get two wraiths for the price of one!! just 1-800-Oh-My-Wraith.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also, I'd like to announce that the deadline is 6PM Central Time, 12 AM GMT.

And now, back to the game!!

[Farael]

The scrolls go on to tell us how the villagers argued their way into a lynching on the first day. It was not an easy process but after many thought and deliberation (and some random votes) it was decided that Glirdan was to be given the noose.

It was a figurative noose, as instead they decided to strap the werewolf hunter onto one of Diamond’s light-absorbing Silmarils and turn it on. Yet as soon as they had him tied up and secured, a terrible transformation occurred. He sprouted lots of hair and big fangs, his voice turned gruff and his gaze deadly. Glirdan was a werewolf!!!

Glirdan: “You fools, I am not a wereorc”

Nogrod: “Well, I see, but you are still a werewolf! Consequently, my theory says that we should kill you all the same”

Glirdan: “But didn’t you read what Farael wrote? He was attacked by wereORCS not wereWOLF.”

JennyHallu: “Who cares? The world is going to end, kill him anyway!!!! He’ll just be the first of many”

SleepyRanger: “No, I say you kill me!!”

Celuien : “Oh, shut up, you are just an apple barrel, you are not even supposed to be talking!!!”

Glirdan: “So, will you please let me go now?”

Roa_Aoife: “Well, I guess so… but only if’

Thud

Naria: “What was that?”

Thud
Thud
Thud

Findëasëa: “Is it… no, it can’t be… but it is!!”

Diamond: “Sleepy!! Stop throwing apples at him!!”

SleepyRanger: “But he stole my thunder!! I wanted to set a new record of lynchments”

Nogrod: “Lynchations you mean”

SleepyRanger: “What ever…”

Glirdan: “ughhugmp umph umphhhhhhhh sssss”

Azaelia: “What? Speak up man! Or elf… or werewolf, what ever you are”

Glirdan: “ughhugmp umph umphhhhhhhh sssss”

Azaelia: “Stop playing games and get that apple off your mouth.. what are you trying to tell us?”

But it was too late. Glirdan was actually begging them to take the apple of his mouth, as he was choking on it and his hands were tied. As a show of respect, the villagers decided to bury him and to put a light-absorbing Silmaril as a headstone, under the agreement that no-one would turn it on and blow the grave up.

An innocent villager…. Or sort of… has died. Here’s the list of the still living.

Caranlondien: aspiring harpist
JennyHallu: Doomsday prophet
Nogrod: unemployed barber.
Grendelien: village whittler
Findëasëa: paleoelfropologist
Celuien:lampwright
Zali: stringer-of-bows
Diamond: Inept Jewel Smith
Dancing Spawn...: a merchant
Kitanna:(still playing? If so thou shall be...) The town's gate-keeper
Naria:The grower of magnificent flowers
Sleepy A barrel of apples*
Legolas in spandex:For now he shall be Legolass (A movie-Legolas impersonator) unless he gives me another role
Roa_Aoife aspiring ballad writer

3 Wereorcs, 1 Ranger and 1 Shaman are still alive..

Now dead:
FaraelMod: He dyed… erm I mean died.
GlirdanRepentant werewolf : Choked on an apple. No wonder why werewolves are carnivores.

Edit: Wereorcs, you can PM each other and send me your night's kill BEFORE 6PM CT, 11 PM GMT

Shaman, your dream must be in before the same deadline

Ranger, I need your pick.

No one but the Wereorcs may PM with regards to this game.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Celuien

Good point. I really haven't decided what I'll do should I be fortunate enough to be granted a dream.

Nor have I, and it's something I've been giving a lot of thought to. But the only conclusion I can come to is that if and when I dream about someone, my plan of action will depend on a variety of factors - how far into the game, who I dream about, and what I find out about them.

Nice work, Dancing Spawn, on the analysis so far. I'll be looking at those people, but, of course, it's early on, and there are some people we haven't even really heard from yet. I'm still in the stage where I don't have any well-founded suspicions, so instead I just suspect everyone...

EDIT: cross-posted with Kitanna

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Thanks, Nogrod, that's right, of course, although the Shaman knows whom s/he dreamed of, and therefore should be able to use that kind of information, too, but that's not probably the most relevant subject toDay.

I'll leave the of talk of tactics and move on to doing something else, like commenting on other villagers' behaviour, for example. A couple of things have caught my attention. It is Day 1, yes, but we have to start from something, so...


- Diamond18. She has spoken relatively much, but most of it is occupation-based chatting. Is she a wereorc trying to make her presence clear by posting "fun nonsense in character" to make it clear that she's not flying under the radar because that's what is usually considered suspicious?

- Roa_Aoife. Another villager who's posted a lot - not that it would be a crime, on the contrary. The thing that made me feel uneasy about her was her subtle way to excuse random voting.

I personally don't like random voting- I like to vote for whoever is the most suspicious to me on any given day, no matter how marginal that suspicion is. If, however, you get to the end of today and are completely lost, by all means vote randomly. It's better to make a random vote than not vote at all.

Of course everyone should vote for the one they find the most suspicious. I don't think that pulling a name out of a hat and voting for the one that got unlucky helps the village much. People can have strong suspicions or just a feeling about a villager, but it's better to vote with a reason, no matter how silly it is, than to excuse oneself from all responsibility and vote 'randomly' for someone.

Another thing that I wonder is, why Roa wanted to take the time to answer Jenny's accusation of her. She, according to herself, just quickly popped in to check the situation while other business demanded her attention, and still she wrote something to defend her although the accusation seemed to be just normal Day 1 chatting.

Originally Posted by Roa

Well, yeah, but what does that have to with wereorcs?

- Findëasëa. She has made only one post, in which she settled for telling that there are three wereorcs in the village and Farael is dead. Well, she did agree with a dream issue, but she didn't say why. Where are her own thoughts? Since she appears to be a new arrival, I won't pursue this matter further toDay, though.

- Sleepy Ranger. Serious business, you say? You don't seem to be taking it very seriously...