Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Kath]

Lhuna and I aren't finished yet Eomer! Night 3 PM's here. This was the Night we had a major problem, because Nilp's inbox was full and Samwise repped him but we weren't sure he'd see it. I can't remember quite what we did to let him know now but it may have involved repping Lhuna (who also had a full inbox) and hoping she'd get the kill across to Nilp. Definitely a confusing Night!

Night 3 – Samwise
Well, we survived. Shame that Eonwe went so early, but then we were staring down the barrel of a wolf getting lynched. Haven't read what I missed in any kind of detail, so I'll do that before suggesting a candidate for lynching.


Night 3 - Kath
3/4 of us were under a lot of suspicion toDay and Lhuna barely made it through. Had the Day gone on much longer I think she would have been in serious danger.

Which brings us to the kill toNight and behaviour tomorrow. What with the 'revelation' that Eonwe was innocent:

Kath - defended Lhuna and voted Eonwe.
Samwise - votes Lhuna having begun the suspicions against her.
Form - defends Lhuna and Samwise (ish) and votes Kath (oh thanks )
Lhuna - voted Eonwe.

Which leaves Lhuna and I with something of a problem as we both voted for an innocent and seem to be working together.

*sigh* I so, so want to kill Eomer. But I've been under suspicion from him all Day and after one comment from Ang as to me being wolvish led to all that scrutiny toDay I'm not sure it's such a fantastic idea.

But Eomer or Farael would be my choices toNight. They put me right in the spotlight and so might get people to stop concentrating on Lhuna so much. But some of the players in this game tend to trust my innocence and 'rational mind' so I might get away with it. What do you guys think.


Night 3 – Samwise
Ok, just a quick PM before I head out.

We shouldn't kill Eomer tonight, that's my thought. We should kill a female. Some of the villagers mooted the idea of culling one sex: we should show that we can scupper any plans they may make. Show them who's boss, you know?

I also think if we can manage to frame someone it'd help me get out of my Lhuna suspicion mode. If we go totally random then I can't credibly forget my suspicions of Lhuna without raising my profile, and we should exploit the fact that at present I seem to be the least suspected wolf.

Just thoughts. I'll be back in about 4-5 hours. Please don't rush the vote tonight.


Night 3 – Form
Agreed in principle. For the same reasons that Kath voiced, I'd be extremely wary of killing Eomer right now. I think Kath can pull through for a while yet- if we don't go pointing fingers straight at her.

That said, I'm also in agreement about the sex thing. Samwise and I are the less-suspected wolves. Let's keep that fact alive by not narrowing down the number of male villagers left to be suspected of being the Lover.
Stick with the Lhuna suspicion for now. It'll give you incredible credit with the village if she ever ends up lynched. That said, try and shuffle her into a second place candidate- find some other scapegoat. Unless, of course, her lynching looks imminent again, in which case you have to stick to your guns and help vote her out.

Now, since I should be proposing candidates for the lynch tonight, and since I have suggested we lynch a female, let's look at the list of them:

Lhuna
and Kath are on our team, so not someones to consider.

Cailín
Caranlondien
Valier
tar-ancalime
Celuien
Naria
Lalaith
Thinlómien

I would be highly surprised if there wasn't at least one of the Seers hiding on this list. That said, I have no idea who it would be.

For that reason, I'm interested- as usual- in lynching someone with no ties back to us, someone whose death will also deprive the village of a potentially dangerous, intelligent voter.

I'm suggesting Celuien then. I believe (but please correct me if I'm wrong) that she's never posted serious suspicions about any of us (minor ones may be dealt with- and I'm sure the village will manufacture its own "why did they think she was a Seer"? argument). Celuien normally survives for the greater portion of the game, and she's generally non-controversial (ie. not an alternatively suspicious candidate).

So, what do you think? Who knows- we may even get a Seer. I'm betting that they're playing it as cool as the Lovers- not so much as a hint- until one of them is dead. Then the other one will starting hinting (to preserve the record) or tell all outright.


Night 3 – Kath
Ugh, you guys just had to choose long names didn't you. Takes me forever to spell them all right

Back on topic:
Ok so we don't kill Eomer toNight. Can we kill him soon? Please!

Instead we kill a girl. And Celuien has been suggested, let's see. Form you're in her probable innocent list so that's good. She's a bit suspicious of me as she's following Eomer somewhat but doesn't want to look at me too hard because I haven't spoken much. Again good. She does point the finger at Samwise because of all his questions about the Lovers (watch that Samwise or you'll soon have villagers and wolves wondering about you). She says it's ramblings but if she's killed people will look back and wonder. Yes indeed in fact she voted for Samwise! Not so good.

In light of that I'm not sure that Celuien is such a safe kill. If Samwise thinks he can deal with suspicions that will be thrown at him then ok, but it's risky.

But if we are looking for a set up check out Gurthang's last post. 'Kath is handling things calmly, possibly making her an innocent' is the gist of it. If we kill him, it could perhaps make people wonder if the wolves killed him to keep suspicion on me. Might make Eomer think twice.

I realise I seem to want to get myself killed here. Apparently I like living on the edge as a wolf!

Oh and another thought (I'm sorry I seem to want to kill all the males toNight) was TGWBS. He doesn't really say much of any use because of this wolf masquerade. And he only really seems to be attacking Eomer, though he has suspicions of Farael and Gurthang too. Votes Eomer.

Well, make of that what you will. I'll be around a few hours yet.
PS: Lhuna has too many PMs again


Night 3 – Form
You, m'dear, need a computer that remembers the people you've PMed in the past.
Depends on the circumstances. Eomer is very talented at attracting suspicion. It may well be possible to kill him through the village. Furthermore, his continued existence looks good for you, since it suggests that you're NOT a werewolf.
You could well be right about Celuien. I still think her a good kill- a somewhat risky kill tends to be better than a perfectly safe one if you can pull it off, but I agree that it's up to Samwise.
Could well be the case... And Gurthang is another village who's track record suggests that it would be wise to kill him- just like Anguirel.
For that reason it's safe to leave him for now... he's not been dangerous to any of us. True, it would be good to kill him while he's still leaving no trails, but I'm inclined to leave him be for now. His suspicions of Eomer, especially, could help save you if Eomer is ever lynched. The village could well go for him rather than you.
My dear sis is too fond of her PMs, methinks- or else she corresponds with too many people...

Anyway, to candidates.

If we exclude Celuien, I'd say that Lalaith, Cailín, Thinlómien, or Dancing Spawn should be our targets. Naria, Valier, and Caranlondien have all been fairly quiet, rather random, and not particularly dangerous. They're all too easy.

Of the four prospects, I'd like to leave Cailín alive for the moment, since she's typically a magnet for suspicion if left alive long enough- although killing her would be fine if the others want that.

Lalaith is dangerous, if left alive. I'd like to remove her soon, because she's too smart.

Thinlómien has been attracting suspicion of late, so leaving her alive is okay, but I foresee her becoming an accepted Innocent in time. Killing her now would confuse the village a fair bit, I suspect.

That leaves Spawn. I'm really thinking we should kill her. This being Nilp's game, she's got a strike in her favour for being on the good side. She's also way too smart for her own good. Taking her out now, before she's had a chance to point at any of us, is probably a good idea.

So, to sum: I am against no one's being eaten, since no one has really cast a shadow on my reputation yet. I'd like to kill a female over a male, and Spawn is my first choice.

++ Spawn, for our late night snack.

I may or may not be on for much longer. If not, I probably won't be back until close to the deadline- if at all (big event at the Church tonight...). If not, kill whomever you like, and consider it done with my support. I'll try and hang around for a little while in hopes that either Kath or Sam are online.

Had to split this Night's PM's. Rest in next post.

[Kath]

Night 3 – Kath
Points received, understood and agreed with. I want to do a quick check on who spawn has accused/supported through the Days so far but I think killing her is a good move.


Night 3 – Form
Excellent!

I'll be around a bit longer... Completely forgot to do the day's end for Survivor...

Bloody memory!


Night 3 – Kath
Well, she's been a pretty ferocious attacker of Lhuna toDay, but so have a lot of people, so if Lhuna thinks she can handle it we're ok. But we likely have to PM Nilp before Lhuna appears, so I don't know whether we should subject her to this without prior knowledge.

Still, a problem only really arises if spawn turns out to be a Seer. In which case uh oh, as the village will believe she dreamt of Lhuna.


Night 3 – Form
If Spawn is a seer, then we want to get her now, Lhuna's death or no. One death would be sad, but acceptable. We need to catch the Seers before they've dreamed of ALL of us!

If Spawn is not a Seer, then I think we'll be okay... Lhuna's going to be in for a rough day tomorrow whether Spawn's dead or not.

If Samwise agrees, we have a wolfish majority, enough to go to Nilp with. If not... then we've got a problem.


Night 3 – Kath
Sounds very Loverish that Form, but I must say I agree. *sigh* OK, I'll be online til about 2am my time, if Samwise agrees between now and then I'll PM Nilp. If not, well, we'll figure something out.


Night 3 – Samwise
I was going to come on and suggest Spawn, in all honesty, so you have my support. Form is right: at present any of us (though moreso the ladies because of their suspicions) is expendable, so one wolfish death is not the end of the world.

++ Dancing Spawn Of Ungoliant


Night 3 – Kath
Cross posted with Samwise. Form you want to PM Nilp now?


Night 3 – Form
Okay then, I'll contact Nilp (and send the two of you copies).

Kath, I didn't even realise that it could be construed that way, but very well, take it as you will.


Night 3 – Form
Milord Melkor,

Your loyal servants of the 19th Loyal Werewolves wish to inform you that Operation Night 3 is underway. We shall be attacking the Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant installation.

Captains K-wolf, SamwolfGamgee, and Weredacil signing. The Lady Lhunardawolf being absent.


Night 3 – Form
Well, that just rips!

Nilp has exceeded his storage space!

Those Filipinos and their PMs!

Anyway, I've sent you two my rather silly PM, and I trust you'll get the word to him one way or another (I don't think I can even Rep him).

Off for the night,


Night 3 – Kath
I'll rep him and try PMing later, and I'll rep Lhuna if that doesn't work and hope one of them gets the message.


Night 3 – Samwise
I gave Nilp rep, telling him of our kill choice. But someone should keep trying to PM him
I'm off to bed now, guys, so don't rely on me to PM Nilp. We can only hope we can get hold of him.


Night 3 – Lhuna
I hope you're online, big bro; I'm sure Kath and Samwise aren't. Yet again my timezones had a hand in keeping most of your Night conversations from me. Please do give me an update...[/


Night 3 – Nilp
Sorry for my full inbox! As I said, I had very little time Saturday, not even time to clear my inbox.

I'm really sorry. It won't happen again (save on a Saturday. )

So yeah, killing spawn wasn't the smartest idea we ever had

[Cailín]

Of the four prospects, I'd like to leave Cailín alive for the moment, since she's typically a magnet for suspicion if left alive long enough- although killing her would be fine if the others want that.

Thanks for not overestimating me, Form.

I really love you, Kath, for saving all those PMs. Very interesting read.

[Kath]

Ah Cailín we love you really! Here's the last bit of PMing the traitor and I were alive for. After this you'll have to rely on Form and Samwise's memories.

Day 3 – Samwise
Ok, so my 1st post of day three is somewhat crazy. I'm running a fine line, guys, this I know. It'll either go amazingly well or spectacularly wrong. Here's hoping it's the former.

On another note: Eomer must die! He's FAR TOO GOOD. I just hope that his double lynch doesn't fly. On the bright side, though, it'd let me know who the lover was!


Day 3 – Kath
Here you go! Also, sorry to have got you in so much trouble toDay, we had hoped it would look too obvious a set-up, doesn't look like it now


Day 3 – Kath

What did I say, what did I say! How would it let you know who the Lover was Samwise?

*sigh* If anything I think we should start planning the Nights kill now as it seems likely that neither Lhuna or I will be around by toNight at this rate


Day 3 – Form

Comes of playing this game too many times, I fear....

No idea...

I had you pegged as the Lover from the beginning, but that was because of my Nilp-analysis, not from anything you've done.

I don't know. I think we must be resigned to the fact that one of you will go, but I think it's possible that one of you will survive yet.

In the meantime, I agree that we should begin looking at a Kill for the night. We definitely want to start looking for another Seer, if we can. If Samwise and I never get dreamed of, there's a good chance we can make a run for the gold- especially having had hands in lynching you two ladies- if that ends up being the case.

Meanwhile, I think we're going to miss your opinions on things if you end up going, and I can only speak for myself of course but they'll be sorely missed indeed.

The fact that Spawn was a Seer only confirms in my mind the idea that Nilp didn't exactly pick us at random- whatever Lhuna may say. I don't know if you're willing to divulge who the other Lover is, Kath (assuming that you ARE the Lover), but I'd really like to know, to see if it bears out my theory.

If it does, then we really ought to be looking for the second Seer among Nilp's closer acquaintances.

Or, to go with a more serious theory, we ought to be looking at who's suspicions over the past two and half days jived with Spawn's. Who else thought that Lhuna was guilty on Day 2? Who else was suspecting Kath- and Lalaith on Day 1?

Call me wrong, but I'm really thinking it's Eomer. If so, we should eat him tonight. Actually, with the girls nearly gone anyway, we should eat him quickly, before he can start suspecting Samwise or myself. He's too smart to leave alive.


Day 3 – Samwise
Because I know I'm innocent, so if you and Lhuna die today and aren't lovers then I know Form is. And if either of you are then, hey, I don't have to worry anyway- you'll be dead!

I don't really want to start discussing tonight's kill. We still have ten hours of posting left, so let's not be hasty.

Contradictory, this, but what think ye of Farael?

Had to halve it again.

[Kath]

Day 3 - Kath
Oh gee thanks Form If I get lynched I'm blaming you!

Anyway, I'm sorry but I am not the Lover, and so cannot tell you who my counterpart is as I don't have one.

Samwise - a double lynch is really not good for us at the moment whether it tells us who the Lover is or not. We can afford to lose one person perhaps, but not two, not this early with a Seer still running about.

On the subject of the Seers, are we thinking that the second one will be a 'special' pick by Nilp as spawn was? In which case who are we looking at? He seems to have gender balanced everything so far so I'm inclined to agree with Form and think it's Eomer. He needs to die anyway whether he's the Seer or not, and if we do kill him toNight and I'm still alive (unlikely) the villagers will lynch me if he is the Seer so hopefully taking suspicion off Lhuna if she's still alive, and if he isn't we may be able to convince the villagers that I wouldn't put myself in danger 3 Days in a row.

However, if both Seers are female then I would suggest looking at Lalaith. Why? Because spawn mentioned her in passing on Day 1 and has since pretty much ignored her. Spawn and Lalaith are good, experienced players, if they were working together they'd know how to hide their tracks.


Day 3 – Form

Fully deserved, to be sure, but I cannot flipflop and suddenly decide it's Lhuna- and I think I need the security that being an "Innocent" will grant me.

Ah well... I'm sure we'll know one way or another eventually. It just would have been nice to have acquired a bit of confirmation for my theory.

Quite so. I dislike double-lynching in general- as all Werewolf threads with my opinion will show- but I dislike them even more as a Werewolf.

Agreed. It's a bit early to be casting votes for tomorrow's vote, but barring other ideas, I'm really leaning pro-Eomer with regards to the vote. And I am inclined to agree that Nilp would have maintained the gender equity.

Actually, Lalaith also came to mind for me. She's definitely a meal to consider for the future. And, since she's a quieter player, eating her shouldn't box us too much into the "oh look, all the loudmouths are dying! Which ones are left!" situation.


Day 3 – Kath
Lhuna, I'm so sorry

Form I'm certainly agreed on Eomer. If you and Samwise are ok with killing him toNight then go for it. I have to go to bed now and so won't have a clue what's happened until morning. Good luck to you and me!

Could really have done with some of that luck there, but it wasn't to be. Ah well, to next time!

[littlemanpoet]

My my my. Fascinating reading.

I think a reevaluation of hero status is in order, and Eomer merits as first half most valuable player, saving second half merits for Gurthang.

Reading over all the analysis, I'm struck by - how shall we say? - how the werewolves' analysis and the motivations behind them actually worked toward their demise in the end. LotR-ish, that. I kinda like that. Of course, there was a huge amount of luck involved that could still have turned the game in either direction.

Examples: The werewolves left Eomer alive - with good reasons for having done so - one Day too long, such that he was able to do major damage to their cause on his "Day of grace".

Counter-example: If the Seers had gone with Spawn's earliest suspicions, we would have had three of the four werewolves dreamt of on the first three Nights!

[tar-ancalime]

Great game, everyone! I'm sorry about having to leave so suddenly...but I was facing several days without computer access (I'm just now back online), and I pm'ed Nilp to ask how he'd like to handle it. He and I both thought that taking me out during the Night would be better than defaulting my way out of the game by not showing up. It certainly worked well for the Village and I was happy to do my part in absentia; however, I hope my absence didn't skew things too far. I would hate to have been a party to corrupting what was otherwise a fantastic and well-played game.

Now, some other thoughts:

This is the first game I've played in in which I haven't been lynched. Innocent or guilty, I always seem to engender the same amount of suspicion. It eventually gets me killed. The wolves always leave me alive because I take attention away from them. However, in this game I was almost universally exonerated right from the beginning. I played exactly the same way I always do, with one exception:

I KEPT MY BLOODY TRAP SHUT ON DAY 1!