What if Smaug the dragon lived?

[deal_with_it]

Originally Posted by lomion

Do you think it would have made any difference in the war? I bet he could take care of Minus Tirith pretty quick.

If Bards arrow goes astray, Smaug destroys Lake Town. The dwarves (via the Ravens) hear Smaug is coming back and are forced to leave. They return to the Iron Hills. Bilbo and Gandalf return to the West. There is no Battle of Five Armies. There is no rebuilding of Dale or of Erebor.

When the Battle of Dale occurs, Lake Town may have been rebuilt, but without the aid of the Dwarves, the men are quickly defeated. If Smaug helps, its a quick battle. Logically, Thranduil's kingdom is the next logical target. I don't see Thorin or Dain sending aid from the Iron Hills.

The Battle of Mirkwood - Here's where it can take a turn for good or bad. I'll keep it short. The wood elves, like the Lorien elves, use the woods as there defense and can easily defend against the Easterlings, also the wood elves are likely better archers than Bard of Lake Town was. If they have knowledge of Smaug's bald patch, they could in effect stop Smaug right there at the eaves of Mirkwood. The Easterlings would probably flee the woods in fear.

On the other hand Smaug could make quick work of the Elven Palace and burn the forest to ashes, creating another Desolation in the immediate area. The fleeing elves would get picked off by spiders (who stay out of the fight) and flee to Rivendell and Lorien. At that point the Eastern Army would proceed to conquer the lands east of the Misty Mountains.