Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Hmm, Caranlondien is currently "as faithful as Samwise"

It's a sign! They are both wolves!

You're starting random suspicions again, are you?

Nice to see you around Samwise since I'm having a few questions for you. See my analysis on you.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Samwise

Hello, villagers. Well, you can forget favourable interest rates next time you come to me for a loan! Oh, and nobody should join in that joke, because it seems that if you have a laugh with me you end up DEAD!

I'll take that risk.

Originally Posted by Samewise

It was my understanding that when we committed to a double lynch on day two we were committing to a course of action to ruthlessly weed out the werewolves. Now that I find people backing out I grow somewhat uncomfortable.

In a larger village, certainly it was in our best interest... and though I am hesitant to bring this up again: we still have a Seer. With double-lynchings each day, his or her dreams will become less effective. It will get easier, fast, for the wolves to find him or her and there's even a possibility s/he will be up for lynching. With the terrific job this Seer is doing, we should be equally careful.

Now I agree that the wolves were probably willing to sacrifice one of their number, that's true, but would a fellow wolf really raise the original suspicion of one of their foul kin?

In the Lover's scenario... yes, in principle, they could.

Nice analysis, Thinlómien, though it does not really sway me either way... And Naria, my random accusation was just a joke based on Caranlondien's current reputation level.

[SamwiseGamgee]

In the Lover's scenario... yes, in principle, they could. (Cailin)

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second?

[littlemanpoet]

Question: Who has voted for the most innocents and Lhuna?

tar-ancalime: d1 Farael, d2 Eomer, d3 Kath, d4 Glirdan - 2 times.

Caranlondien: d1 Anguirel, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 no vote - 3 times.

Thinlómien: d1 Glirdan, d2 Naria, d3 Lhuna, d4 Guy - 3 times at least, perhaps 4.

Samwise: d1 Garin, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 Glirdan - 4 times.

Valier: d1 Glirdan, d2 Eonwe, d3 Kath, d4 no vote - 2 times.

Lalaith: d1 Guy, d2 Eonwe, d3 Lhuna, d4 Glirdan - 3 times.

Naria: d1 Guy, d2 Eonwe, d3 Kath, d4 no vote - 2 times.

Formy: d1 Guy, d2 Kath, d3 Kath, d4 Naria - 1 time, perhaps 2.

Gurthang: d1 LMP, d2 no vote, d3 Lhuna, d4 no vote - 2 times, but the d3 vote was legit.

Cailín: d1 Lalaith, d2 Eonwe, d3 no vote, d4 no vote - 1 time, perhaps 2.

LMP: d1 Eomer, d2 Lhuna, d3 Lhuna, d4 Guy - 4 times.

Well, that doesn't change a whole lot except to bring Thinlómien a little higher on my suspicion list, and drop Caranlondien a bit. That leaves Samwise and me as those most deserving of votes for lynching. I leave this village to be the judge. My single-minded, single-hearted effort speaks for itself, and there is much that I've added to this discussion over the days, as you all know. I've tried to be as helpful as I could, given the limits upon my intelligence and value to this village. Do what you must.
****************

Originally Posted by Formy

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere.

It should not have in my humble opinion, and I am to blame as much as anyone. But Guy may he r.i.p., is more culpable than most by attracting undue attention to himself for his Nilpy antics. Quite a distraction. Said distraction finally, mercifully, out of the way, fresh objectivity results in the current suspicions. That's the way this game goes. Samwise has been on my "probably innocent" list all game long too. But then it suddenly dawned on me that the werewolves, most likely well aware that Lhuna was the lover-werewolf, wanted her lynched. Thus, those who regularly voted for her are likely candidates for werewolf. The three who fit that catetory are Samwise, Caranlondien, and me. I've allowed myself to be played. That's why I think, despite their nay-saying to the contrary, that these two are most likely our werewolves.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If I had analysed anyone else, would I suspect him/her rather than Samwise?

That is a malady that I fall into over and over again, which is why I've been trying (and often failing) to stick to as objective a set of criteria as I can muster.

I think that we would do well to be as objective as possible toDay. All of our analysis and hunchy suspicion is proving to send us all over the board. Meanwhile, there is evidence in the votes. The later in the game, the more that evidence aids the village. It's really quite deplorable that the site was down for hours yesterDay, and many of us didn't get a chance to vote. That doesn't help. Nevertheless, I would like to urge calmness. Don't panic. The werewolves may be focused, but they're also desperate. Do the math and figure it out. That said, I vote now for one of the three against whom the evidence is most telling:

++ Samwise

My "final post" list has not changed since yesterDay, except for the removal of Guy, Glirdan, & Celuien from them.

There's just one thing I wish to add: though their voting records are evidence to the contrary, I can't get over this sick feeling that Valier & Naria are quietly laughing in their sleeves, watching us flounder about, looking at people for this, that, and the next reason, but no zeroing in on them. *sigh*

[littlemanpoet]

I feel somewhat relieved to be voting the same as Formy, who has had an uncanny knack more often than not this game for getting the vote right. I see also that Gurthang has done a better job of what I was trying to do with the vote analysis. I hope mine helps a little bit.

[Cailín]

I have been going over Caranlondien's post and can find little substantive against her except for the mere facts, voting records...

Nothing truly incriminating, though.

There is someone out here who is a remarkably skilled liar. And I don't like it.

Ok, but would they also then urge for the death of the second?

Clearly, they would. Otherwise they'd look suspicious. This is no formal accusation, Samwise, merely pointing out that by now I'd expect anything from the wolves.

Caran, I see you correctly brought up my original plan for lynching males so as to identify the Lovers. However, at that time I was still a little... caught up in my own setting for this game. As you probably know, I more or less invented the Lovers as they were played here and was planning on modding a game involving them myself. I already figured out for myself I'd use two male wolves and two female wolves... and somehow in my mind this developed into the assumption that all Lover-games would necessarily need two male and two female wolves. Completely silly of course, but I hope that explains my switching positions here just a little.

[Caranlondien]

Another cancelled Lumberjack Class...

Back to work on my LMP analysis.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, I was on Day Three, post #416...

Post #416, continued
Says perhaps werewolves took advantage of Eonwe's situation on Day Two (he had trouble getting to a computer), and took advantage of that to lynch him.
Summarizes what the dead innocent said that we still aren't sure of:
Garin thinks Cailín is innocent
Anguirel defends Cailín against Samwise; LMP points suspicion to Glirdan, since Anguirel voted for him.
Makes another list, which you can go back and read if you want; It's too much to try to summarize his summaries!

DAY FOUR

Post #417
Analyzes Spawn's posts for clues.

Post #418
Says Eomer, TGWBS, and Farael have all sown confusion. We now know that none of these people were wolves, although Farael was a Lover.
Says that Kath is worthy of "having an eye kept on her", but right now all the noise about her is a distraction from the more obvious candidate, Lhuna. Says TGBWS's suggestion that Spawn did NOT dream of Lhuna is "garbage".

Post #419
Rejects TGWBS's plan.

Post #423
Corrects himself about Lhuna's Day One vote.

Post #424
Says perhaps Lhuna's response to TGWBS's plan ("it makes me think you are the sole male wolf") is close to the truth - perhaps there are 3 females and 1 male wolf. Suggests we double-lynch TGWBS with Lhuna instead of Kath. Trying to shift suspicion away from Kath? Possibly...

Post #426
Responds to me saying I would support a TGWBS lynching.

Post #429
Realizes he can't rely on Lhuna to help lynch TGWBS, and so votes for Lhuna.
Explains his suspicions of Eomer and TGWBS. Mild accusation against Formendacil for defending Lhuna and accusing Kath. Continues to think all the talk of Kath is a distraction.

I think tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Thinlomien, Samwise, & Farael are probably innocent. I think that Gurthang & Cailín are probably not werewolves either. I'm not sure about Valier, Lalaith, Glirdan, Kath, Naria, & Celuien. I'm really suspicious of Formendacil, Eomer, & Guy. And I think Lhunardawen is so furry it must hurt

DAY FOUR

Post #479
Agrees with Lalaith's suspicions of TGWBS. Calls Cailin "one of the more suspicious based on voting records." Responds to Lalaith (who said she was most suspicious of Formendacil, TGWBS, and LMP) by saying that a healthy analysis of all three should point her in the right direction.

Post #481
Agrees with Cailin that we shouldn't put any stock in what Lhuna said at the end of Day Three. Says he is suspicious of TGWBS. Asks Lalaith to post more to allay suspicions of her.

Post #482
Agrees with tar-a that we should look at Glirdan.

Post #485
Thinks Farael may have let something slip in his desperation.

Post #522
Posts chart of votes. Concludes TGWBS is a werewolf, and makes conjectures about others' innocence based on TGWBS's assumed guilt.

Post #532
Responds to a point raised in my analysis of Farael, and says maybe TGWBS isn't a wolf. Thinks more, then says maybe he is a wolf.

Post #533
Agrees with TGWBS that double-lynches favor the innocents.

Post #534
Correction / joke

Post #550
Defends tar-a's post as not seeming contradictory to him. Agrees that Lhuna voters are not automatically innocent.

Post #551
Continues to think TGWBS is guilty, and votes for him. Makes a "just for the record" post of who he thinks is guilty / not guilty.

DAY FIVE

Post #574
Now thinks Lhuna voters are more likely to be guilty.

Post #591
Analyzes everyone based on several factors; conclude Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP look the most suspicious (but exempts himself since he "knows he's innocent").
Points out that perhaps double lynches should not continue, since we no longer have a large number-advantage.

Conclusion:
I keep asking myself why LMP is still alive. A lot of us have been inclined to trust him. This is bordering on dangerous territory, but he is definitely clever enough to fool us all through an implied masquerade. I'm just not sure about him, and I have to think.

I'll be back in a bit

[Formendacil]

Good Morning, good village...

It's nice to wake up and find oneself still alive!

Okay, reading over the Day's discussion, it seems that we have two main topics on our minds. The first, of course, is Why Did the Wolves Kill Celuien? The second is, Is SamwiseGamgee Guilty?

To address the first: I have no idea.

Thinking on the issue, I am in agreement with those who think that Celuien must have exhibited some Seer-ish qualities. At this point in the game, I don't think the Wolves can afford to leave the Seer alive.

That said, however, I'm a hedgehog if I can see anything in Celuien that looked Seerish. Now, I obviously can't see it as the Werewolves do, but from where I'm sitting, nothing about her looks particularly suspicious. Most of Celuien's suspicions weren't expressed strongly, and they tended to wander a little, I thought.

But what reason does that leave for the Werewolves to go after Celuien? You'd think, that if they couldn't get the Seer, they'd take down one of the more prominent- more dangerous- villagers. LMP definitely comes to mind.

So, the question for me is: did the Werewolves, having no idea who the Seer was, opt to throw the village into mass confusion by killing someone who was otherwise pointless to kill?

I am left rather confused by this whole matter, and shall set it aside then, and move on to SamwiseGamgee, the second matter.

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere. He's been on my "seems innocent" list since Day 1, and on a lot of other people's lists as well. And, looking back, I can't really say that he looks particularly guilty. He was, as much-noted, a member of the anti-Lhuna campaign that saw Lhuna lynched. Now this, in and of itself, does not strike me as particularly guilty- several people voted Lhuna. On the other hand, it is a strike against him.

On the theory that Lhuna's Lover-ness was NOT deduced by the Werewolves until the course of that day, is it possible that Samwise was setting himself up the day before (when he also came out against Lhuna) to look good if Lhuna got lynched?

I'm still unsure as to where to place Samwise in my mind: Guilty or Not? The trust of the village in him over the last few days is a hard habit to break. I mean, it's one thing for me to think him relatively innocent- most of the village has been in agreement.

On the other hand, the evidence does seem to be pointing in his general direction, and from what little I know of him from elsewhere (such as the Warg Society), he definitely comes across as intelligent enough to pull the wool over the village eyes.

Still not sure... but I'll be back later...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

To be honest, it feels as if this whole anti-SamwiseGamgee movement came out of nowhere.

That's usually the case with villagers who tend slip under the radar that become suspected.

I know my suspicions of Samwise come mainly from the things I found in my analysis. A strange idea came to my mind. If I had analysed anyone else, would I suspect him/her rather than Samwise? For wolvishness can be seen in anything, if it's looked for. Anyway, he remains at the top of my suspicions' list.

I would like to add that I don't suspect him - or anyone else - strongly. The whole village is playing an innocent -looking game and I have to suspect someone.

I agree the person who said we're having a few good liars in the village. Or if not liars, then good hiders(sp?).

[SamwiseGamgee]

Response to Lommy #604: it wasn't a mathematically backed-up theory, it was simply based on the assumption that day one votes tend to be somewhat random and not necessarily based on good reasoning, so day one is the least wise day to double lynch. I guess I'm paying the price now for not being precise enough back then.

I agree with Cailin that we have a very talented liar in our midst and I think we must all be very careful.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

Response to Lommy #604: it wasn't a mathematically backed-up theory, it was simply based on the assumption that day one votes tend to be somewhat random and not necessarily based on good reasoning, so day one is the least wise day to double lynch. I guess I'm paying the price now for not being precise enough back then.

Now I got your point. I agree you should express yourself more clearly, Mr Cash.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I' about to go out for the next six hours or so. Please don't view my absence as suspicious. I will be back with analysis and theories aplenty!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

I' about to go out for the next six hours or so. Please don't view my absence as suspicious. I will be back with analysis and theories aplenty!

Ok, but I don't promise not to vote you during your absence!

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Caran, I see you correctly brought up my original plan for lynching males so as to identify the Lovers. However, at that time I was still a little... caught up in my own setting for this game. As you probably know, I more or less invented the Lovers as they were played here and was planning on modding a game involving them myself. I already figured out for myself I'd use two male wolves and two female wolves... and somehow in my mind this developed into the assumption that all Lover-games would necessarily need two male and two female wolves. Completely silly of course, but I hope that explains my switching positions here just a little.

Yes, this does explain it.

In any case, I'm not really that suspicious of Cailín right now. There certainly isn't anyone I've entirely ruled out as a possible werewolf, but, she and Valier are both on my Least-Suspected list, the latter because she really seems sincere.

Formendacil said that all this suspicion of Samwise seemed to come out of nowhere; However, I agree with Thinlómien:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That's usually the case with villagers who tend slip under the radar that become suspected.

I don't think that our overlooking someone for the first few Days means we should feel obligated to continue to overlook them.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Formendacil said that all this suspicion of Samwise seemed to come out of nowhere; However, I agree with Thinlómien:

I don't think that our overlooking someone for the first few Days means we should feel obligated to continue to overlook them.

Oh, I agree...

I'm merely pointing out the fact that he HAS been overlooked- and either the fact that he was overlooked or the fact that he is now being looked at probably points to a Werewolvish influence.

If the first fact, the one that was being overlooked to begin with, is the Wolvish fact, then we know clearly where to lay the blame- at the feet of SamwiseGamgee.

If the second fact, the once that he is now being looked at, is the Wolvish fact, then we must ask ourselves who the Wolf is that is instigating this whole possibly wild goose chase.

Of these two possibilities, I'm of the opinion that the first one seems more likely- and I would not be surprised indeed if there was a Wolf hiding in SamwiseGamgee. Nevertheless, if only because he has been so UN-suspicious over the past few days, it behooves us to ask WHY he is no longer unsuspicious. Have we begun to see through his disguise? Or are we being coerced into thinking we are?

I think the first more likely- but I do not discount the second.

[Lalaith]

It was Cailin this morning who first began to talk about Samwise, I think, and then Thinlomien followed up with her analysis of him.
Not saying that's suspicious, in itself. But that's my impression of how the Samwise thing began.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Thinlomien

The whole village is playing an innocent -looking game and I have to suspect someone.

I completely agree with you on this point! I have found this game and the players in it hard to judge. I have been fairly quiet and not throwing random and strange theories out there. I normally see weird connections and plans forming around me. I usually get a feeling about someone and say 8 times out of 10 I tend to be correct at the end. I see analysis as confusing, I swear my brain does not work that way. I think the things I see about others are usually arbitrary or soft in reasoning. But this game........wow it's hard to tell.

I think I will read over posts from Lalaith and samwise's posts and see what I can get out of them. I will likely vote for one of these two.

[Lalaith]

Er....Mithalwen isn't playing in this game, Valier....

[Cailín]

First time experience for me: my computer crashed while I was writing an extended post. Good thing, perhaps. It was all nonsensical anyway.

I am still waiting for the Big Yellow Schoolbus to hit me.

Innocent(-looking)

Valier
Tar-ancalime
Gurthang
Cailín

Don't Know / Not Overly Suspicious

Formendacil
Lalaith
Thinlómien
Naria

Feel Slightly Uneasy About (mainly due to presumed intelligence)

Caranlondien
SamwiseGamgee

Feel Genuinely Worried About

Elempi

---

It basically comes down to this. Analysis is making my head hurt right now -my intellect seems to be failing the village- and I am inclined to vote instinctively toDay. I have a bad feeling about littlemanpoet (I always have bad feelings about him, though. Even when I was a wolf myself in XII I thought him guilty). Unless something eventful happens or I find evidence against mystifying Naria, I shall most likely vote for him.

Am rather sleepy now, so expect me back in about 8 hours from now.

[Lalaith]

I think we are all (I mean the innocents) feeling befuddled today, and I think voting is going to be scattered all over the place. I don't know who to vote for either, I've got a couple of hunches but that's really all they are, just hunches, no evidence.

And it's the scattering that worries me. The innocents are blundering, the wolves know what they are doing and they are focused. They'll be able to push through the lynch they want.