Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[littlemanpoet]

A few questions and answers to help us:

1. Who has voted for Kath & Farael, and not Lhuna?

tar-ancalime - 2x (Farael once, kath once)
Valier - 1x (& late, helping secure the tie)
Naria - 1x (& late, helping secure the tie)
Formendacil 2x (both times Kath)

2. Who has voted for Lhuna instead of Kath or innocents?

Caranlondien - 2x
Samwise - 2x
LMP -2x
Thinlomien - 1x
Lalatih - 1x
Gurthang - 1x

3. Who have the killed innocents suspected & voted for?

Celuien suspected & voted for Samwise. - Day 2

Eomer voted for LMP based on a random selection. - Day 1

Glirdan voted for Naria - Day 2

Guy voted for Naria - Day 4

4. Who has contributed the least to the discussions?

In order (rough estimate) of least help:

Naria
Valier
Formendacil
Samwise

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Question #4's answers are offset by the answers to questions #1-3.

The upshot of this little investigation is that:

a. Formendacil, Naria, and Valier are not our most likely choices for the werewolves.

b. Samwise, Caranlondien, and LMP should be considered to be the most suspicious.

c. Of the three listed in point (b), I know that I trust myself most, obviously. The other two need a thorough investigation.

One thing of note is Samwise's outburst regarding the Lovers information. How do we interpret that?

Caranlondien has exhibited the intellectual acuity that I've seen in tar-ancalime and Spawn. In other words, I think you ladies are smarter than I am. I admit it. Therefore, I'll put nothing past Caranlondien.

Samwise I can see playing this cunning a game with Caran's help. I'd say he's about as smart as I am (which ain't stupid).

I think there's a weakness, if not a flaw, in Guy's double lynch logic, which is this: each Day we double lynch 2 innocents, the more likely a werewolf win becomes. Pretty obvious, but I still think it needs to be said. I'm not sure we can afford to be wrong yet another Day.