Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Thinlómien]

I skimmed through Celuien's posting. She suspected both Lhuna and Kath. A thing that surely matters. She was one of the first Kath-suspectors. That surely might tell us something.

[littlemanpoet]

The werewolves were playing us (innocents) off against the Lovers; of this we can be sure. That means that whoever voted for Lhuna is more likely to be a werewolf than whoever voted for Kath. That does not exonerate those who voted for Kath, but the likelihood of their innocence is greater than the Lhuna voters. Granted, that does not make me look very good, but I can live with that.

[Cailín]

Thinlómien… Before I continue, I'd like to explain why double-lynching is more beneficial in principle (though admittedly, there is a slight flaw that has to do with the Seer). If we had not lynched Glirdan or TGWBS yesterDay, we would probably have done so toDay as they were the most suspicious characters. This would give the wolves two nightly kills instead of one. If we as villagers can double-lynch, we hold the power. The only downside is that the Seer only has one dream per three people dying. That makes me unsure whether we should double-lynch toDay. Actually, I think not.

Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Cailín
Naria
Valier
Lalaith
Thinlómien
Formendacil
littlemanpoet
Gurthang
SamwiseGamgee

Amidst these people are still two werewolves.

I know I am not one. I am not certain about anyone else. My intuition tells me Caranlondien, tar-ancalime and Gurthang are innocent and I will consider them so for the moment.

Naria was under suspicion yesterDay. TGWBS -known ordinary- voted for her, as well as Formendacil. Celuien analysed her and came up with nothing. The general consensus was suspicious, quiet, cryptic and yet not overly so. I'd love to hear more from her toDay. I remain undecided.

Valier is quiet. Too quiet. I do not suspect her, really, but I need more active participation.

Lalaith is a controversial person. She seems genuine, and yet she is known for her ability to stay under the radar. I will go through her posts again toDay.

Thinlomien… I do still suspect her a little. Skimming through her posts, I see she has brought up quite a lot of theories and disagrees with them immediately afterwards (her legendary indecisiveness I presume), but none of the things she says particularly make sense. Sorry, Lommy, I just don't quite follow your stream of thoughts. Now I don't know whether swaying is Lommy's style or not -having never played with her before- but I'd normally suspect anyone behaving in such a matter. But - the cluelessness that shimmers through her posts leads me to believe she is innocent again. So I guess I am indecisive as well.

Formendacil seems more innocent as the days go by. His vote for Naria yesterDay was rather safe, and yet he expected more people to vote than who eventually did, so he might really have been pushing for a lynch of someone he just thought more likely to be wolfish. He did from the start say he did not consider TGWBS or Glirdan specially wolfish… so he has been consistent and maybe perhaps right in the end. His vote for Kath earlier was very innocent looking, too. If Formendacil is a wolf, he is playing a remarkably cunning game. I know he is smart, but is he that smart? Possibly. I shan't be underestimating him.

Littlemanpoet… recent events make him look less good. He's eager to point them out himself, though. He seems like ever - remarkably self-assured and convinced of his own insight (). His persecution of Guy yesterDay was too strong to be wolvish, and yet littlemanwolf(?) has been in a rather safe, unsuspected position thus far, allowing him to be more frank. I must analyse him toDay - yet find him still not overly suspicious.

SamwiseGamgee I just don't get at all. While he does seem innocent, his vote for Lhunardawen was the most suspicious one of the Day. Seeing he was all in agreement with Eomer over the double-lynch thing, I would have thought he'd vote for Kath or Farael at that point. Also, twice in a row SamwiseGamgee's 'buddy' has been eaten by wolves (Eomer is obvious, Celuien and he had some friendly exchanges yesterDay). Anyone volunteer to analyse this banker?

[Lalaith]

Here goes. This is LONG, but hopefully thorough. Thank goodness Celuien didn’t post that much this game.
First post: in character. Says she thinks the wolves will spot the lovers first, and someone coming out strongly against a villager could be a wolf turning on a traitor. She’ll look out for pairs. Says, in character, that Lommy’s visits are protected by patient confidentiality, and she cannot disclose their content without risking her license. Says she has no “psychic powers, delusions of grandeur or romantic involvements” This comment might have been picked up by wolves as protesting too much?
Second post: more character. Agrees with me about the amount of lunacy in village, points to Anguirel’s delusions. (Again, this might be mistaken as Seerish, she knows Ang’s Seerish claims are delusions?) Valier and Guy are unlikely lovers, lovers are unlikely to hint. Thinks they are both innocent. Is worried about Eomer, but wants to know more about his strategy so won’t vote for him.
Third post: this was her “men only” analysis that I picked up on earlier. Thinks Garin is overly defensive. Then goes through nearly all the other men: Form, Lmp, Glirdan, Farael, Ang, Eonwe, Gurthang, Samwise, and – hmmm… doesn’t find any of them suspicious. This is quite interesting. I actually thought this a rather wolfish post at the time, analysing everyone and not coming to any conclusions. (On the other hand, at this point the Seers could only have dreamt of one person, and the wolves knew this.)
4th: votes for Garin, for his defensiveness and possible backfiring-suicide strategy. Apologises.
Fifth post: nothing important.
Sixth post: says she understood Eomer’s plan. Thinks Ang was mistaken for a Seer by the wolves, also killed because he was smart. Names the following as probable innocents: Guy, LMP, Eomer, spawn, tar-a and Form.
Then says she wants to look more closely at Kath, Farael and Glirdan.
Seventh post: comes back with doubts about Kath’s behaviour but doesn’t know if its enough to vote for her. Was going to look at Glirdan and Farael but is now struck by Eonwe’s odd behaviour.
Eighth post: tabulates vote count. Doesn’t particularly suspect Farael or Glirdan. Doesn’t particularly suspect anyone, doesn’t want to throw away her vote. Will wait to vote to prevent double lynching.
Triple post: Reminds Caranlondien that odd behaviour (this time in the case of Guy) often indicates innocence. Then tells Samwise that the ordo-lover wouldn’t masquerade as seer for fear of wolf-attack. Then wonders if Samwise’s outrage at lmp over the lover question isn’t annoyance at having lover-tactics revealed.
Then after this, comes back and votes for Samwise for his village-polling. Says she may vote for Eonwe tomorrow, and thinks I (Lalaith) bear watching.

Next day. Spawn has been killed by wolves.
Gives three possibilities – that spawn was killed for her correct suspicion of Kath and/or Lhuna, that it was done to even out the male/female ratio, or that Kath and Lhuna were being framed by wolves. Likes double-lynch plan but doesn’t want to do the Guy male-lynching plan. Thinks there is at least one female wolf. Likes lmp’s idea that Farael is just going after his suspect whole-hog (rather than being a lover on the defensive, which was of course the true case).
Comes back, finds Lhuna very suspicious. Notices the “back and forth” between spawn and Lhuna on the first day, thinks that might have triggered a Lhuna dream. But has alternative explanation and so wants to wait ( I assume she was worried that Lhuna might be the other seer. This was something I was worried about too and had already alluded to.)
Then mentions Valier’s “I don’t eat sheep” remark to Guy, but in a neutral way.
Comes back with voting update. Says she will vote for Lhuna unless we are still wanting a double lynch. Then says she’s actually more comfortable about voting for Kath. Also because village needs a Kath vote to co-ordinate double-lynch, and because of not wanting to vote for Lhuna before she’s spoken. Votes for Kath.
YesterDay: praises Eomer. Answers my question about the men-only analysis, says that was just a coincidence. Says she thinks LMP is innocent. Is suspicious of Guy.
Comes back with long breakdown of all Glirdan’s posts.(Post 536, if anyone wants a closer look) Concludes that he is suspicious. Doesn’t think the previous day’s voting tells us much.
Again she protests LMP’s innocence, and also this time Gurthang’s.
Next post, she’s mainly talking to tar-a. Apologises for getting a couple of Glirdan points wrong. Says “support for Caranlondien stands”, don’t quite know what she means by this. Then some discussion about the pros and cons of Guy’s Plan which I don’t really understand. Says she was against the Plan for diverting attention away from the women.
Wonders about Eomer’s suspicion of Glirdan, could he have got three out three right? (We now know the answer is no).
Now thinks Guy is probably innocent..
Next post is a big one, analysing lots of people’s posts. Thinks Guy’s actions the day before were very suspicious. Wonders if Eomer was trying to hide the real Seer. She says in passing that she thinks Naria is innocent. Is puzzled by Guy, thinks he felt guilty the day before and innocent today. (Quite right, I felt the same way) Thinks she will vote for either Guy or Glirdan.
Then moves on to analyse Naria. Repeats that she’s not suspicious.
Then votes for Guy. Apologises. Supports double lynch of Glirdan “if suspicion continues to hold”.
Some joshing with Samwise about double-posting.

Conclusion: If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.

Sorry Cailin, haven't had time to read your most recent post. Will do so now.

[Cailín]

Conclusion: If the wolves did think Celuien is the Seer, then LMP, and probably Naria and Gurthang, are innocents. I find little evidence of new wolvish candidates here, however, except possibly Samwise.

Thanks Lalaith - very thorough.

However, I disagree with your conclusion. If the wolves thought Celuien the Seer, it would make Samwise (in principle) look less suspicious since Celuien did not pursue her suspicions any further, which she would have done if she had dreamt of Wolf-Samwise. It rather suggests a dream of Samwise and finding him innocent. Though Celuien was not the Seer of course; but it certainly does not make Samwise look more lupine. I hope that made sense.

I agree with the rest of your conclusion, but we cannot trust Celuien's words blindly.

[Lalaith]

No, of course Celuien knew no more than any other innocent ord. But we have to presume that if the wolves thought she was the Seer, she must have got something right.
I think that what she got "right" was more likely to be someone's innocence than someone's guilt.

[Gurthang]

Well, I've gotten up early to post an analysis I typed up yesterday; I'll put it up shortly, after I remove Celuien's name. I am also puzzled by the wolves choice, which, among other reasons, may have been why they chose her: to confuse us. Only time will tell.

I would also like to apologize for not voting yesterday. For what it's worth, I was highly suspicious about Glirdan and probably would have voted for him; I don't know if I would have supported a double or not. Turns out I would have been wrong either way.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

The werewolves were playing us (innocents) off against the Lovers; of this we can be sure. That means that whoever voted for Lhuna is more likely to be a werewolf than whoever voted for Kath. That does not exonerate those who voted for Kath, but the likelihood of their innocence is greater than the Lhuna voters. Granted, that does not make me look very good, but I can live with that.

I agree with this entirely, and one part of my analysis (my next post) is based on this.

[Gurthang]

Okay, bear with me on this, because this is going to be long. Seeing as most of our suspects (all five of them) have been killed in the last two days, I've decided to do my own analysis of everyone by using... unconventional methods. Well, maybe not so much unconventional as not often used. After each part, I'll list who I find innocent and who I find suspicious from each part. If I'm undecided on any person, then they won't be in either list. Anyway, I hope I can make sense of it when I'm done. (Oh, and keep in mind that I typed most of this up during the Night.)


Part 1: Gut Instinct

Laugh all you want, but I've found that my gut can sometimes be more trustworthy than my brain. So, I thought I'd give my gut some say and here's what it says:

Feels innocent:
Cailín
Formendacil
SamwiseGamgee

Feels suspicious:
Caranlondien
Naria
Valier
LMP


Part 2: Day 3 Voting

Here's the facts(courtesy of TGWBS's post):
Known innocents in italics; known enemies in bold.

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)
15. Naria --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 7)
16. Cailín --> No one (Lhuna 7 - Farael 1 - Kath 7)
16. Lhuna --> Kath (Lhuna 7, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)
17. Gurthang -> Lhuna (Lhuna 8, - Farael 1 - Kath 8)

Okay, to me, it would seem logical that the wolves, being the (presumably) intelligent evil beings that they are, would see that there was a lot of suspicion for Lhuna going into the Day. Knowing this, and maybe even thinking she was the female lover, they would probably turn on her. Meaning that the other wolves probably voted for Lhuna. On the other hand, I sincerely doubt that they would put Kath on the platform. It would be to easy for the wolves to just bandwagon onto Lhuna, rather than make the unnecessary sacrifice of voting for another wolf. This also makes LMP's vote look questionable, because, if we wanted to double lynch, then we would need to keep the votes close, and he tried to make the gap wider when we really needed some votes for Kath.

So, from the voting on Day 3:

Looks innocent:
Formendacil
tar-ancalime
Valier
Naria
Cailín


Looks suspicious:
LMP
Thin
Lalaith
SamwiseGamgee
Caranlondien
Gurthang
(I know I'm innocent, but you guys don't, so my name will stay.)


Part 3: First Day Mentionings

I would think that, especially on the first Day, that wolves would avoid either accusing or defending each other directly. I just think they'd avoid mentioning each other at all. So, here are what we know about who named who on the first day. (I will list only those who are still alive.)

Mentioned Lhuna or Kath
Cailín
LMP
Gurthang
Formendacil
Thin (Only to state crossposting)

Mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Lalaith
Naria

Did not mention or was not mentioned by Lhuna or Kath
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

I believe that's right. I scanned through the first day thrice. Lhuna and Kath only had about 7 posts total between them, so there wasn't much there. I don't think I missed anyone talking about them, though. I also won't put someone in the 'looks innocent' category simply for having the word Lhuna or Kath in their post; it needs to be a decent mention. So, assuming my research to be correct:

Looks innocent:
Lalaith
Naria
Formendacil
LMP

Looks suspicious:
Caranlondien
tar-ancalime
Valier
SamwiseGamgee

[Gurthang]

I'll be back on later toDay to post Part 4: Individual Voting and to post a summary of who I think this information implicates. I don't know that my decision will be based wholly on these Parts, but I don't know that I have a lot else to go off of.

I'm almost thinking of doing a Part 5: Votes Received, but I don't know that that would tell us anything. I'll just have to see when I have time.

[Lalaith]

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

[Cailín]

Interesting Gurthang...

Especially since Caranlondien pops up on your suspicion lists so often, while I -primarily based on instincts or because I was impressed with her contributions as a newbie to the game- have never considered her as wolfish before. Maybe I should review that feeling.

I am very much inclined to trust you, Gurthang, so I value your thoughts. Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

[tar-ancalime]

Interesting, Gurthang. It's funny how Day 1 always seems to grow in importance, the longer the game goes on.

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know why everyone is so quick to discount Celuien as a possible Seer in the eyes of the wolves. Any Seer who's lasted this long is laying very low indeed (and bravo to you, good madam or sir!). It could be that the wolves have stopped looking for obvious Seer clues and are getting a little paranoid--starting to knock off those who have been playing smart but a little quiet. They started with the loudmouths and caught a break with spawn; could they have moved on to a different strategy after failing with Anguirel and Eomer (seeing as how they're running out of loudmouths)?

[Gurthang]

Quick answers, I have to leave soon.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Thanks for all this, Gurthang.
Just one thing - you've emboldened poor Glirdan as an enemy, and he was an innocent.

Oops. I'll edit that.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Would you say that a Wolf-Valier or Naria would have tallied the scores, knowing full well two of their allies would die?

It's possible, but I would doubt it. I think that we wouldn't have looked twice if they had voted for Lhuna, simply saying they didn't like the double lynch. It would have been very easy for them to do that and stay out of trouble. So, yes they could still be wolves, but from that part of the analysis, they look innocent. I guess that's key, I used the words 'look' and 'feel' rather than just saying 'definitely are', since none of this is ever for certain. Still, I think that coming up with enough places where someone is looking guilty can lead to a wolf.

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

How about "mentioned by Farael?" Would that be worth looking at? Granted, his agenda was a little different than, say, Kath's, but still he knew the score. He proved to us on Day 3 that he wasn't shy about using his knowledge.

I don't know. The only trouble is there's no way to cross-reference with anything, since none of the wolves would have known he was a lover either, they would not have avoided talking about him. Still, you can never tell, so if you want to, then go ahead. I don't see how it could hurt.