Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Statistics dictate that two lynchings are better than one. Whether I am a wolf, an innocent or a psychotic bunny, this will not change.

They do?

Most double-lynchings I've seen have been two ordos. Occassionally you'll get a Wolf as well. Yesterday's doublelynch, while extremely fortuitious for us, was a first, I'm sure, in Tol-in-Gaurhoth history. However, catching two Werewolves means that the number of Werewolves in the village has been halved, while the overall numbers of the village are still over half the original number- meaning that the chances of catching a Werewolf, based on simple stats, have gone DOWN since yesterday.

Which does not mean that a Double-lynch could not catch us a Werewolf- it just means that I refute TGWBS's statement here, and reaffirm my dislike of double-lynchings. Yes, it may catch you a Werewolf, but it will also kill off an innocent.

Fortunately, our village is not yet so low in numbers that we are desperately in need of every Innocent we can lay hands on, but it still seems rather wastefully imprudent to me to be lynching people off every which way we turn.

Anyway...

Having ranting against the ills of double-lynchings, let me say what I'm thinking about TGWBS, yet again:

He's innocent. At least, I think he is. Past experience leads me to think that he's being as innocently normal as we can expect. TGWBS is certainly capable of bold strokes such as he's been accused of, but I somehow don't think that he's guilty of them this time. If he is, then the Werewolves are in serious trouble, with two of their number gone.

Naria's name has also come up a fair bit today as being potentially wolfish. I'm much more hesitant to declare her innocent than TGWBS, although she has been playing to form. However, Naria's style is, by its very nature, rather quiet and cryptic. It wouldn't take much to change suspicious Innocent to suspicious Wolf in her case. I think her a more likely wolf than TGWBS, but I'm not sure yet that she's wolvish...

[Formendacil]

Crossposted, for the record, with two Gurthang posts.

[Lalaith]

Two? I see only one...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Two? I see only one...

Whoops!

That "other Gurthang" post was a Caralondien post, I guess...

Which serves me right for posting about cross-posting before reading what was wrote.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Lal

I'm getting confused about Guy again. I started today fairly sure I was going to vote for him but now I don't know.

You don't want to vote for me.

Yes, you do. He's a dirty werewolf!

Quiet, Abrahadam! This isn't a good time.

It's never a good time with you.

Shhh...

Originally Posted by Caran

What I mean is that if, say, I were the one under a lot of suspicion right now, I would know myself to be innocent, but I would understand if people waited until I was dead to follow my advice (since they wouldn't know I was innocent until then).

Fairy Nuff. This sounds logical.

In any case, I think we need a free vote because this stuck out to me:

Hmm. I can't find the exact quote. Basically, having rigid voting schemes will result in wolves being able to use the scheme - "I had to vote to keep with the double lynching plan - to escape detection.

So a free vote today, for later analysis.

And if I am killed and proved innocent, double lynchings thereafter. Sound's fair.

But I'd hardly call this a random sampling, since you're the one, TGWBS who picked out Naria to be lynched.

Naria doesn't have to be the other lynchee. I simply view her as more suspicious than others. Left to its own devices, I believe the village would pick Glirdan as its other lynchee.

Statistics say that if we randomly lynch two people everyday...

This isn't random. It is maths in conjunction with analysis. We pick the two most suspicious.

They do?

Yes. You refuting this, you bringing up former games, you doing anything cannot change this. If there is x chance of catching a wolf on any day, then double lynching results in a 2x chance of catching one.

And now I retire for the night. Farewell.