Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Eomer, you cut me to my core! Come, let us drink and womanise until the wee small hours and you shall find I am no less of a man than you remember!

P.S.- We're both male, so keep you crackpot lover theories to yourselves!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gurthang, you make reasonable points against double-lynchings. But if the Seer does choose to reveal some known innocents then we cannot afford to let the chance slip by.

Aye, Samwise! Let us drink rum 'til we forget the worries of our time; and the sorrows of this village. But the womenfolk may well be locked-up in their homes tonight, rather than partying at the saloon.

[SamwiseGamgee]

A wise point, Eomer. One can only imagine the horror of finding that the evening's pull is a huge, slavering, toothy wolf! I think 'yuk' fails to cover it.

[Farael]

Master Samwise, given that you seem to be around, would you kindly explain to me why we should ignore the fact that Spawn was not likely to dream of Lhuna on the second night?

As far as I can tell, it is plausible if not probable, and thus we should not forget it. As a matter of fact, we should not forget a thing that has been said, for evidence may lay on the most inconspicuous statements.

Furthermore, care to explain exactly why you seem to be in Lhuna's tail? you have been accusing her with no real reasoning for the past two days and this anti-lhuna theories play straight into your hands. You can get her lynched without being the man to propose it, and thus avoid most of the heat if she turns out to be an innocent. I'm not saying that she will, but she sure seems more innocent than Kath right now.

Finally, why should we villagers unite? I think we should stay at each other's throat, allies one day and enemies the next as a united vilalge will fall to the wolves. We cannot tell who the wolves are right now, and that is our problem. If we "unite and work together" we shall also die together, as we would be welcoming those furry beasts into our supposedly synergistic group.

Really, you should know better than that. OR do you have other interests in mind?

Finally, I find it very unsettling when a villager posts a comment that does not include one bit of analysis after day 1. I will not hold it against you given that this is a game after all and we are supposed to have fun, but try to contribute something to the discussion if you are to post.

[Glirdan]

I said I'd finish analysing spawn later, so, I will.

Post #166 - Does an analysis of Naria and after it, doesn' suspect her.

Post #175 - Nothing much except quotes and answers to them.

Post #193 - More quote and answers.

Post #199 - Asks Eonwe if he had any suspicions instead of voting for Valier simply because Valier posted before him. Says she won't vote for him that Day because there are better lynching candidates. Quoted and agreed with Gurth. Wanted to hear more from Naria.

Post #207 - Quotes and agrees with Eomer that it's possible that the Wolves didn't attack Ang to frame Kath. Quotes and agrees with Eomer once again.

Post #212 - Quotes Lhuna and asks if she's confessing. Finds Lhuna the most Wolvish and votes her.

Well, there's not much that I see there leading towards a Kath or Lhuna dream. I think she voted for Lhuna on instinct mostly and the facts that she had gathered against her. I'll be back with some more thoughts.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Excuse me Farael, I did say "Forget 'it doesn't make sense for Spawn to dream of Lhuna'." Or words rather close to those, but what I should have said was "Forget for the minute..." I guess I got somewhat carried away in the moment of my thought. I don't think we should completely ignore it, but when we trust in speculation on what makes sense we err. What makes sense to you, Farael, may make no sense whatsoever to me. 'Sense' is subjective, and that's why I'm uncomfortable with leaning on it.

I became suspicious of Lhuna yesterday morning. Maybe after the night had an ordo been killed I would have put it on the backburner. However, learning of Spawn's seerishness and bearing in mind what she said regarding Lhuna means that she is my chief suspect. That's why I've been on her tail so closely: because I believe she has one!

Now, my unity call was made out of frustration. Frustration mainly at what I saw as you and TGWBS's bickering. Even as I read that I was agreeing with TGWBS, and now that I've read your last post I am very uncomfortable. Just compare the reactions to my 'working together' post of Eomer and Farael. I can't help but think that Farael, staring down the barrel of getting lynched, is desperately trying to shift everyone's focus.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

I can't help but think that Farael, staring down the barrel of getting lynched, is desperately trying to shift everyone's focus.

Feel free to think that way, those who know me also know that I don't mind being lynched when my presence has become a disturbance to the village rather than help, but I think I can still help, even if some suspect me. Furthermore, I think I've been pretty consistant, even from before the first suspicions were voiced.

I suspect Kath much more than Lhuna, although I don't think Lhuna to be innocent "For sure"

After today's happenings, I also have second-thoughts about TGWBS

I think we should lynch Kath (and so I have for the last two days) and then tomorrow possibly TGWBS.

Of course, that shifts focus away from me... because I'm obviously not advocating my death just yet. But it's an irrational statement, your comments on me also shift the focus away from you and into me.... and Glirdan's last comments on spawn shift the focus to Kath and Lhuna again.... every comment shifts the focus, and I obviously won't get the focus on me because there is nothing to focus on!

[SamwiseGamgee]

That's not wholly true, Farael. Explaining oneself doesn't shift focus, does it? My real point was the fact that it seemed somewhat desperate.

But I'm not going to vote for you today, because I'm going to vote for:

++ Lhunardawen

I know I said I'd only wait half an hour when I first posted this evening, but then Family Guy came on, so I delayed!

Vote total is now thus:
Lhuna: 4
Farael: 1
Kath: 1

[Celuien]

Voting update:

Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short --> Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)

I'll probably vote for Lhuna unless we're still trying for a double lynch today, in which case I'll vote Kath.

EDIT: crossposted with Samwise. Voting summary edited to reflect his vote for Lhuna.

EDIT again: I'm actually somewhat more comfortable with voting for Kath than I am for Lhuna. Besides, my vote may be needed to coordinate the double. And I don't know how late I can stay to wait for Lhuna. So, to keep my word not to vote for Lhuna before hearing from her and for the other reasons above.

++KATH

And I've edited the vote count once again to reflect my vote below:

Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short --> Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 2)

[Kath]

Disclaimer from the last post should be repeated here!

Day 2:

Spawn:
Mentions that I had spoken before Ang made his post and agrees that Ang’s death possibly makes me and Eomer look bad, but doesn’t think so really. Links Ang to Eomer and suggests Eomer is a wolf. Points out that Ang spoke out a lot against Glirdan, but she doesn’t think him a wolf as he has been posting normally. Possibly an indication that she dreamt of him, found him innocent and is dismissing him from her suspicions, but that’s a stretch.

Looks again at Lhuna, making a case against her and finds her actions and words seem wolvish. Now if she did dream of Lhuna that’s pretty damning evidence, but if not it’s simply speculation. It is, of course, impossible for us to know which.

Voices some suspicion of Naria. Again could be a dream, but I think it would be far less likely for spawn to dream of Naria than Lhuna given the choice.

Makes a point of repeating that I posted before Ang, but I don’t know which direction that’s pushing in.

Pretty cross with Eonwe for his unreasoned vote but says she won’t vote for him.

Seems to feel that the wolves taking time out on Night 2 to specifically set me up is a little farfetched. Thinks it’s possible I am a wolf, but after she begins that train of thought she stops claiming it confuses her. Is defending me far more than accusing me. I’m not harping on about this really, I’m just trying to work out where the idea that spawn was blatantly accusing me of wolvishness came from.

Picks up on Lhuna’s ‘a wolf either way’ comment. Votes Lhuna claiming that the arguments of others have swayed her. Now if she dreamt of Lhuna and wanted to get her lynched without revealing herself to be the Seer that has to be one of the best ways to go about it. And this post combined with that idea is seriously swaying me toward the ‘Lhuna is a wolf’ camp.


Lhuna:

I was afraid that Anguirel might have been an extremely bold Seer; thank the Mod God he isn't.

This has been quoted a lot and seemed to start off the suspicion of Lhuna. Why should it be so wolvish? Is it not possible that she was simply thankful that the wolves had not got the Seer? I’m not saying it isn’t the first option, but there are two possibilities here. And yet there is still the matter of not breaking this double lynch. It really does speak against her, but it’s so obvious! I just can’t help thinking a lupine Lhuna would be more subtle.

Defends herself about leaving the double lynch as it stood, saying she couldn’t vote for Guy due to principles. This again has been taken as a wolvish statement but again it seems too bold. But Lhuna could well be a bold wolf.

Tar-a picks up on Lhuna’s use of ‘we’ when speaking of saving Garin and though I think this is a little pedantic the point remains that she could be trying to ally herself with a group of innocents. If Lhuna is a wolf perhaps those she included herself with should be viewed as innocents, that’s Ang, Lommy, Form and spawn. Well we know two are – Ang and spawn.

Lommy begins to make a case against Lhuna over her reluctance to take sides. Now Lommy can’t realistically accuse anyone of flip-flopping when she herself does it so often, but the scenarios she gives are acceptable. Her scenario 3 seems to be following the same lines as my mind toDay, except that I think Lhuna did ponder her vote, and chose to go with her principles. However, that doesn’t exclude the possibility that her principles helpfully coincided with her wolvish desire to let the tie stand.

Put on Eomer’s suspect list due to, apparently, her thinking Glirdan and Garin were innocent and being worried about it. Not much reasoning there.

Gives a simple defence, reiterating her reasons for not breaking the tie. It’s a calm defence too, but I’m not sure whether that speaks in her favour or suggests she’s a cool wolf.

Cailín is somewhat suspicious of her as is Gurthang. But nothing concrete from either of them.

Samwise repeats his reasons for suspecting her and they are fair ones but seems quite happy to switch his vote to someone else. Odd that.

Has some support from Lommy over the ‘wolf either way’ comment. However as I think Lommy innocent that doesn’t help much.

Samwise votes for Lhuna based on his earlier suspicions, presumably because no one better turned up.

Has some support from Cara, who thinks the comments that spawn and others picked up on were blown out of proportion (which I tend to agree with).

Lhuna returns and repeats her defence, answering questions thrown her way. She does keep pointing at Samwise, with good reason for some things but it seems more like she’s trying to shift the suspicion from her to him.

Argues against spawn saying she too left the tie and voted elsewhere, but this is unfortunately incorrect. Spawn voted after the tie had been dealt with. It looks here like Lhuna is trying to ally herself with spawn, and if Lhuna is a wolf then she is trying to ally herself with a known innocent (to her). Votes Eonwe because of the silly vote.

Suspicion from lmp because of the ‘Ang. . .Seer’ quote and the ‘we wanted to save Garin’ quote. Votes Lhuna due to her digging herself into a hole.

Cara votes Lhuna because she seems more suspicious than Eonwe.


Farael:
Explains why he didn’t become suicidal and why he defended me rather than Eomer or Glirdan. Then, within a post, switches from defending me to accusing me. His options are a little rigid for my liking (but then they would be, they make me guilty either way) and I don’t think they cover all of them. The case is there, but it’s not solid.

Cailín has him at the top of her suspect list.



Ok, well, I obviously don’t like Farael’s point of view as he is making a case against me. As to everyone else doing the same thing, if you are basing this on spawn’s words then please go back and reread them, as I really cannot find anything she said that would make me out to be a wolf. Everything she said about me was vague and flip floppy, especially in comparison to what she said about Lhuna.

And as for Lhuna, I did not want to think her guilty, I still don’t. But looking at the evidence from the last two days and the sheer strength of the arguments against her, as well as support of those arguments from a Seer . . . well.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Oh and looking at that most recent post from Farael, why is he completely ignoring Lhuna? His suspect list from his words goes Kath, Lhuna, Guy, but his order of lynching goes Kath, Guy.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Kath

Oh and looking at that most recent post from Farael, why is he completely ignoring Lhuna? His suspect list from his words goes Kath, Lhuna, Guy, but his order of lynching goes Kath, Guy.

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear.... I said that Lhuna is still a suspect, but not as much as you..... and given our latest exchanges, Guy.

[Caranlondien]

I may not be able to return toDay, so I shall cast my vote now:

++LHUNARDAWEN

I suspected her yesterday, and I suspect her today. Good luck, everyone; May we lynch a wolf!

Edit: Cross-posted with Celuien's Edit and with Farael; I see Celuien's point about the possibility of a double lynch, but I'm just not sure about Kath, and I'd hate to lynch an innocen just for the sake of doing a double lynch...

[Formendacil]

Kath, I hate to say it- well, actually, I don't hate to say it, since I'm on your case anyway- but that vote of yours really looks like a Werewolf trying to save their neck rather than the reasoned vote for a Seer-confirmed candidate that you make it out to be.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Off to bed, but before I go, it's Lhuna: 6 and Kath: 2. If there's going to be a double lynch better get a move on.

[Gurthang]

Well, I'm becoming less and less sure of what I thought I was sure of...

I'm still in support of lynching Lhuna toDay, and it looks like it is going to happen. Kath has explained herself a little, and it also brings to mind that some of what I had been basing my opinion of her on was what Farael was saying. I'll have to go back and check to see exactly how spawn mentions Kath. But, my main suspicion of Kath is that it would emake sense with both Ang's death and spawn being taken away and is not only based on what spawn may or may not have said about her.

I am also still in support of a double lynch toDay. I am becoming a little more suspicious of Farael, so either he and Lhuna or Kath and Lhuna would be alright with me. As things are going though, it looks like it might be Lhuna only.


One more thing; After TGWBS mentioned The Plan toDay, a lot of discussion (and by a lot I mean possible as much as half) was wasted on it. I don't suspect him a lot right now, but, even given that The Plan was supposedly made with good intentions, it was definitely a hindrance to toDay's discussion.

Voting:
Lhuna - 6
Kath - 2
Farael - 1

I will be voting later; probably close to the end of the Day.

[Lalaith]

I hope I've counted right, but I believe we currently have a vote for Farael,(tgwbs) a vote for Kath, (Form) and two votes for Lhuna. (Lommy, Eomer)

I keep thinking about poor spawn, wherever she's been taken by her white-robed figure, silently shouting at us, no, you fools, can't you see I meant xxxxxx....

So, what or who was this xxxxxxx? It could of course be nothing but two innocents, ie, she never dreamt of a wolf at all. I can see the argument in favour of a wolf-Kath (particularly the way spawn kept repeatedly rebutting the idea of a "Kath frame-up") but I will trust in her specific use of the word "wolfish" against Lhuna.
Perhaps we should, as some here have suggested, do a double-lynch, of Lhuna and Kath. I however will vote for the one I think is most suspicious.
In an ideal world, I would wait for Lhuna herself to speak - I wish I could, but I can't be sure that I can get back online in time tomorrow morning.

++LHUNARDAWEN


PS

One third of us is now guilty

Again, Cailín, I find myself challenging you on numbers. We are now 18. A third of that is six but if you count the lover as guilty, that still only makes five....don't want to be a pedant, but as we are quibbling on odds and percentage points, we need to get these things right.

[littlemanpoet]

Who did Spawn defend, suspect, & accuse on Day 1?

a. Defend: in #30 does NOT defend Cailíin so much as say Sam's accusation of Cailín doesn't have much substance.

b. Suspect:
- in #30 she mentions Cailín's early vote as suspicious to due randomness which can be a werewolf cover.
- in #124 she feels funny about Kath's vote for Eomer

c. Accuse: Eonwe because his voting reasons were a bit too weird.

Who did Spawn defend, suspect, & accuse on Day 2?

a. defend:
- in #151mildly questions and defends Glirdan as a werewolf who thought Ang was seer, but thinks he's just been playing his normal game.
- in #166 says she's not suspicious of Naria.
- in #199 she takes Eonwe to task:

I won't vote for you again toDay because to me there are better lynching candidates, too, but you're not being very helpful, if I may say that.

Now, what's interesting about this is that she says that she will not vote for Eonwe because there are better lynching candidates, meaning others of whom she is more suspicious. Hence, it's a reasonable conclusion that she did not dream of Eonwe, at all; if she had, there's not way she would say this because of the trail it would leave once she was dead. I just hope the other seer's as careful as she seems to have been.
- in #212 defends Samwise as having saved the village from a possible double lynch, which she has already pointed out Lhuna could have done and didn't.

b. suspect:
- in #164 she suggests closer examination of the Lhuna issue; comments on Lhuna's changed play, more insecure and apologetic.

Villagers whose actions are decorated with apologies are creeping me out.

Translation: they are acting wolvish ... like Lhuna.
- in #164 she observes that Formendacil has made a tie 12 minutes before the deadline.
- in #166 she concludes by saying that maybe she's suspicious of Naria anyway, more or less wiping out her defense of Naria earlier in that post; safe to say that Spawn most likely didn't dream of Naria and wanted to make sure in case of her murder that no-one thought she had.
- in #193 she retorts to Lhuna:

I don't think our votes can be ragarded as helpful when talking about saving Garin.

- in #207:

Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused.

As seer, she seems to want to be careful here, basically saying that she's not sure about any of these three, suggesting that she had not dreamed of them by this time.

c. accuse:
- in #164 Spawn notes Lhuna's strange comment about fearing Ang was a seer and says,

A wolvish confession?

Right now your actions feel rather wolvish, young missy.

- in #212 she straight up accuses Lhuna and votes for her.

I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour.

Here again Spawn is pointing out the disconnect between Lhuna's odd apologetic behavior and the supposed stubborness she claims. What's interesting about this is that by this point it seems like Spawn is trying to point at Lhuna so that nobody will miss her meaning. Which means that she strongly wants Lhuna lynched; this makes it pretty obvious that she has dreamed that Lhuna is a werewolf.

What are the facts of the case that we did not know at the outset?

Fact: Spawn was one of our seers.

Fact: On Day 1 Spawn voted for Eonwe on Day 1

Fact: On Day 2 Spawn said that she didn't think Eonwe was a werewolf.

Fact: On Day 2 Spawn accused and voted for Lhuna.

Fact: I haven't been able to isolate any hints as to whom she dreamed of that was innocent. It's pretty obvious to me that she must have dreamed of Lhuna; which Night, who knows? I doubt we can come to a safe conclusion as to which Night, not that it matters a whole lot.

[littlemanpoet]

Who has sown confusion?

Eomer, Guy, & Farael.

Two points to cover the three of them:

1. This whole Kath business seems like a tempest in a teapot to me, garnering far more attention than it deserves. Of course, Kath is as worthy of having an eye kept on as any other, but not as a distration away from the more obvious candidates; like Lhuna.

2. Related, is the preposterous notion that Spawn dreamt of Eonwe instead of Lhuna and that her pointing at Lhuna on Day 2 is somehow ambiguous. That is tripe. Nonsense. Distracting garbage. Makes me suspect Guy.

Obviously, this means I've changed my tune somewhat on Eomer. Well, so it is. Seems to me a lot of hot air is being wasted on Kath, although I do think Eomer may be on to something regarding Farael, I'm just not sure.

Well, I'm half way through page 9 and have a lot of reading to do. At least with these posts I'll know where I added my info.