Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers.

That's presposterous, TGWBS's plan does not increase the villager's odds... it decreases them!! Sure, the mathematical odds increase, but this is not a game of math, as even after TGWBS's plan is done and all the males are dead, we'd have to revert back to analysis.

This game is won and lost by proper analysis. I offered my analysis and so far no-one has commented upon it properly. TGWBS's offers statistics and I say "they will be our doom". Why? because we will still need analysis yet once we commit to statistics we will loose the groundwork from which analysis is born. Namely, discussion. There will be no real discussion involving the female wolves, only their male counterparts.... thus the females will hide and then it will be too late for analysis. Eomer, your support of TGWBS but mostly your attack on those who try to show why his plan is misguided really worries me.

[Valier]

I for one do not think we should kill just the men. Women can be very crafty when backed into a corner remember...I do agree in a double lynch though.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, we will revert back to analysis — once we have found at least one and probably two wolves. It's hopeless analysing people when we don't know a wolf. Anything can appear as anything. Once we find one, more doors open up for us and our analysis has a proper basis.

Unlike now, where we are scraping about in the dark with little clue.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

And Farael, you misrepresent what I said. I agreed with TGWBS; but I did not attack those who disagreed with his plan; I said I would suspect anyone who doubts the merits of double-lynchings.

That's different.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

And Farael, you misrepresent what I said. I agreed with TGWBS; but I did not attack those who disagreed with his plan; I said I would suspect anyone who doubts the merits of double-lynchings.

That's different.

My mistake Eomer, I stand corrected.

[Cailín]

Something has changed.

TGWBS, despite your vote for me yesterday, I have faith in you.

Why, Eomer, suddenly I know why we should lynch you on the first Day. This superior arrogance, as if you know something we do not, is absolutely agonising.

--

I wish Lhuna would post something -silly timezones-, but she remains my primary suspect. If we were to orchestrate a double-lynching (which seems the wisest idea), I'd likely support Farael, possibly Kath, perhaps Glirdan and maybe one of the people I am forgetting about.

That said, Gurthang, I am really sorry. I shall henceforth mention you in all my suspect-lists.

I remain hesitant of TGWBS' plan. With three or even four female wolves, this Plan could turn out to be disastrous. I just don't know what to think. I doubt much support could be gathered for it anyway.

[Lalaith]

So many posts, so little time....
One thing I want to say. Spawn was a very careful and experienced player. She used the word "wolfish" with regard to Lhuna. This is a word she did NOT use when she voted for Eonwe the day before. (He was of course an innocent.)
I do think this is significant.
But I do wish Lhuna would come and post. I don't want her lynched before she can speak out.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, I concede. But I think that TGWBS is innocent because he suggested a mathematical method to root out wolves. Wolves are not happy playing with statistics; they thrive on twisting every piece of analysis this way and that.

If you're not happy with the plan then fine. Let's not do it.

Double-lynchings are a must, though. I trust we all see the wisdom in them?

Wow, Cailín. So I'm not just arrogant, but I have superior arrogance? That's what happens when the King himself tells you that you're brilliant.

All that happened was that I hit upon a new theory. It might be right, it might be wrong. Nothing important. Don't worry about it.

[Caranlondien]

I agree about double lynchings; As has been said, that gives us two kills based on the villagers' votes, and only one based on the werewolves (granted, the werewolves can influence our votes, but still...)

Eomer, I think TGWBS's plan is dead. While many of us agree about double lynchings, I think few of us will go along with an all-male lynching campaign. However, Eomer's continued defense of the plan does make me more inclined to believe him innocent; would a wolf continue to beat a dead horse?

Anyway, I've been convincd by arguments that Lhuna and Kath belong on our suspect-list. I'm going to go back and re-read their posts myself, since I can't trust any of you.