Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You're right Lalaith.

More fun with maths (much simpler this time):

We should begin the double-lynches. They ensure that more kills are made by the village than the wolves. They ensure that we have greater chances of catching wolves.

And my picks for today, though I agree we should wait to hear from them, are Kath and Lhuna.

I don't think games should include double-lynchings, but since we are 'blessed' with them, it would be folly to not maximise their benefits.

[Cailín]

You know, Eomer has a point about the double-lynching thing. I mean, who says it is beneficial for the village to drag things out? The wolves only would have more time to confuse us.

That said, I don’t wish to jump to conclusions yet. There are many villagers we still need to hear from and this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that.

[SamwiseGamgee]

this is becoming a rather one-sided story if you ask me. One third of us is now guilty, and Lhuna and Kath ain’t enough to cover that. (Cailin)

What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.

I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.

[Celuien]

So spawn was one of the Seers...

Three possibilities:

1. Kath and/or Lhuna are wolves who killed spawn for her suspicion of them.
2. Evening the male/female ratio, as suggested previously.
3. Wolves setting up an innocent Kath/Lhuna and happened coincidentally to find a Seer.

I agree with the double lynching plan, though not with TGWBS's version of lynching all males. Both because of the previously mentioned problems with numbers of remaining villagers and the possibility of killing the remaining Seer,
but also because it diverts attention from my side of the divide too well. I would be quite surprised to not find at least one female wolf.

Originally Posted by lmp on Farael

1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.

I'm inclined to think this is the case.

I'm off to reread Lhuna's posts.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

What do you mean by that Cailin? I'm not accusing you or anything, I just don't catch your meaning.

I was trying to imply that of the nine (now ten) people who have posted so far, I would not be surprised at least one of them has their own hidden agenda.

I can see Eomer's point, in that there's no advantage to us drawing this affair out, but what if we've been wrong and Kath and Lhuna are both innocent? From Spawn's accusations of them both we can be fairly sure neither of them is the seer, but losing two ordos would be a major blow nonetheless, much moreso than losing only one. We could potentially lose three innocents (one of which could be the seer) by daybreak tomorrow. Are we ok about that? It's an idea with merit, this I do not deny, but it's a risky one, and we should all be aware of that before we commit to a course of action.

Well, that's why we should wait for all people to have a say first, as far as that is possible. But it is unlikely - if the wolves indeed are smart - that suspicion of either Lhuna or Kath would disappear tomorrow if it does not toDay. By lynching them one at the time, all we would do is buy the wolves another Night to kill more innocents and we'd be in the same position with less allies left.

I hope you see my point: unless Lhuna or Kath is the other Seer (which is almost impossible), the Seer would not be sacrificing him/herself to save one of them and one more Night is not beneficial for either them or the village. The villagers are by now so suspicious of the both of them that unless someone comes along with groundbreaking theories or evidence, they are going to end up lynched anyway. And then a double-lynching is better than one.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I've just gone back through some of the earlier posts by Lhuna and Kath and have come to the conclusion that maybe a double lynch would be the correct action for today. I want to make it clear, though, that while I support such a course of action today I do not necessarily think it should be the norm from now on.

Also, I said we could end up with three dead innocents by daybreak, but that's only one eventuality. There are many possibilities, too many for me to list, but her's the best possible scenario: we could have three dead wolves by daybreak. How? Well, there are other ways it could work but: Kath and Lhuna are wolves, but not lover wolves (that's two dead wolves). By night the first wolf vote cast is for the ordo-lover. That would kill the third wolf and rid us of the lovers. So, on closer inspection Eomer's plan is a good 'un.

[Kath]

Well, well, how nice of you all to plan my death while I'm not around Obviously I don't agree with you killing me but there is little point in proclaiming my innocence as that never goes down well.

As for spawn and her accusations of me, I'll have to go back and have a re-read as I hadn't noticed they were that strong until Eomer and Farael started pointing them out.

On the subject of double-lynches, I dislike them whether I'm one of the prospective lynchees or not, and would prefer not to have them, at least not this early where there is still such a high chance that we would lynch two innocents in one go.

TGWBS's idea about lynching all the males to find the Lover and possibly a wolf is a little dangerous, especially since it again involves double lynches. If all the wolves are female (as someone suggested) it adds even more danger as only the deaths of the ordo Lover and one wolf would be gained, leaving a pretty low ratio of villager to wolves. (That last bit was based on guesswork, if someone could provide the actual maths I'd be very grateful.)

As for Lhuna, I agree that spawns' death makes her look bad (and yes myself too) and I'll take a look at the posts made by her and in regard to her.

So, I'll be back later with a post when I've got all these things clear in my head.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Actually Kath, I didn't refer to Spawn's accusations at all. I just agreed with the people who had already analysed Spawn's posts. Your name cropped up here, there and everywhere; and I had already suspected you.

I don't like double-lynchings either — that's why I've often campaigned against them. But since we have them at our disposal...

Use double-lynchings and 67% of deaths are decided by the village and only 33% by the wolves.

Yes, we lose innocents quicker, but our chances of catching wolves increase.

[the guy who be short]

Suit yourself guy, suspect me as you please... there are a few more "reminders", read up to my post if you want to see where I found them. Then you can go check by yourself.

Oh, apologies. I left out, what, one post? That brings the total up to 4 extremely vague mentionings of somebody being discussed anyway. Quick! Lynch her!

And here's the one post you mention, Farael, that I left out, because I thought it so trivial.

I'll say it once again, Kath did post before Anguirel made the "Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat" post. I don't know if that makes much difference, but it's good to keep the facts straight. Post 193, spawn

This is what you base your accusations on!

Answer me, if spawn had dreamt of Kath and not Lhuna, why she voted for the latter?

Yes, all of you pushing for a Kath lynching... you're just making it worse for yourself. We innocents aren't blind, you know. You can't make things up and expect us to accept them.

Call me shrill if you wish. When people dare to influence the village into accepting illogical arguments, I shall be shrill.