Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[tar-ancalime]

from Cailin:

I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

Interesting idea. Are you saying that the Seers decided spawn should "alert the village," even to the point of sacrificing herself? Because I agree with you that spawn's pursuit of Lhuna yesterday looks like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. However, I'd discounted that out of hand because, well, it looks a little too much like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. I would have imagined spawn to be more subtle than that. But there it is--spawn is dead, Lhuna is alive, we still have a Seer, and as for my previous post, I did say it was a crackpot theory. It may be that the simplest solution is the best. Lhuna? Care to convince us otherwise?

I still think there may be something, even a tiny nugget of something, in my crackpot theory--I really think the wolves (a) know who the Lover wolf is, and (b) think it's expedient at this point to keep the Lovers alive...for a while. They're in no danger yet, and as long as we villagers are talking about Lovers they've got conversations in which to hide.

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)

No, the Seers were in communication with each other, but they chose one person to dream about each Night. That means we don't have double the amount of dreams, but tthe dreams spawn already had are not lost with her death.

You are very sure that spawn did not dream of Lhuna. I'm not sure I follow your logic here--even if I concede the point that spawn thought Lhuna was innocent (which I'm not ready to do, in addition to the fact that we don't know what the other Seer thought at the time), it can be just as important for Seers to build up a list of proven innocents as to target wolves. We don't know what the Seers' strategy was, nor what it will be now that there is only one left.

[Farael]

Well Tar-a, I don't think it's logical to make a list of known innocents this early on the game.... those lists "make themselves" as the seers choose the wrong people to dream of. Why in Eru's name would they dream of someone they think innocent when they (obviously, as spawn did) had some suspects?

The logic is quite simple, actually. And the fact that the seers have only one dream makes it more likely. On Day 1 there should be plenty of suspicious people to dream of... why dream about someone that either of the seers thinks Innocent?

And remember, I'm saying that Spawn thought that Lhuna was innocent ON DAY 1... that changed on day 2, but it was too late for her dream anyway. Spawn did not mistrust Lhuna until the end of the day, which means (to me) that she was swayed during the day by the arguments made. And she decided to vote for Lhuna rather than Kath (whom she knew a wolf... or so my theory goes) because the wolves had already ridden themselves of someone who had voiced loud suspicions of Kath and it's too early to sacrifice a seer for a wolf. Thus, she hinted subtly that we should not forget Kath. When she said so, I thought that spawn was just sort of agreeing with me.... now I think that it was even more than that, she was saying that Kath is not innocent as we may think her to be.

I know I have a bit of a reputation for having crazy theories, but think about it.... Spawn did not suspect Lhuna until mid day 2.... and she has steadfastly suspected (and hinted that we should not think innocent) Kath.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin:

Those two comments by Spawn were made on the same day!!! A seer would not change her views of a wolf she's going after mid-day. I'm not trying to say that Lhuna is not a wolf though and you might be on to something when you say that maybe both women are wolves... but I think that Spawn's change of mind during the day shows that she was going after a "wolfishly looking" unknown rather than a known wolf. There is no reason for a seer who has chosen to go all out against a wolf to change their views mid-day. If anything, it will make her accusations seem like a flip-flop.

[Cailín]

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

I see now Spawn did not immediately attack Lhuna, but she did shortly after she made her first post. I can think of merely two reasons why Seer-Spawn would attack anyone so strongly. It is not like her to be very outspoken in her accusations anyway:

1) She did not believe Lhuna to be wolvish at all and wished to delude the true wolves.

2) She was almost convinced to the point of sure that Lhuna is a wolf. She must have known that she would be a likely target - she is always a likely target - for the wolves had Lhuna been lynched and found guilty. I just don't believe she would be so easily swayed by the other villagers.

--

Your ideas concerning Kath are not at all far-fetched, Farael, but I think you are dismissing the Lhuna case too easily.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

If that's the case, then I must correct my notes. Still, I think that

*Spawn seemed to be rather swayed by the villagers about Lhuna

*Spawn was not swayed at all with regards to Kath, even if some people argued in Kath's favour.

*Odds are against the Seers having found two wolves (specially now that I know they only get one dream/night)

Now, I still find Kath more suspicious than Lhuna... and I think the big fuss made about Lhuna's vote is misguided. Sure, Lhuna was (Hope you forgive me... and that the ProphetNilp does not smite me in a fit of brotherly love) pretty silly as it would (and did) make her look as lupine as it gets.... but that's the only strong piece of evidence we have against her

Her edgyness can be attributed at the fact that many people were suspecting her.

Now, I don't want to defend Lhuna, but it seems the best way to explain my thoughts about Kath... I think that one of them is a wolf (at least) and I think that it's more likely than Kath is a wolf than Lhuna. It might just be me, but I think it's better to take a risk trying to clear the air now rather than later....

Here's what I propose, feel free to reject it:
*We lynch Kath, whom I still think is the most suspicious

*If Kath is a wolf, we celebrate

*If Kath is not a wolf and Lhuna does nothing to change our collective minds, we lynch her

*If neither Kath nor Lhuna turn out to be wolves, I shall start thinking that I'm not as smart as I feel right now.....

*If either is a wolf.... it will be up to each of us to decide whether or not we think it's likely that both will be. I am uncertain on that matter and so I can't really plan for it.

I will get a lot of heat for "trying to sway the village" but I have my reasons and I'm sticking to them. If anyone can come up with a better plan, speak up.... It might be a little early on the day for me to propose a plan as wolves could latch on to it, create a bandwagon and hide in the background noise..... but I am "so certain" that either Kath or Lhuna are a wolf and pretty much convinced that Kath is rather than Lhuna that I am hoping you all will agree.

Now, THAT WAS NOT A SEER HINT. Please, note that I wrote ""so certain"" (in between "" thingies that I can't recall how they are called) and "pretty much convinced".... I'm basing this certainty and convincement on my reasoning, in which I believe strongly.... And if you don't think I am, maybe you should learn your history and read up on the Eighteenth time a village has been infected by wolves *hint, hint*... and sorry Nilp but it IS in itallics... so it's allowed, right?

[Lalaith]

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect,

Farael, I'm not sure if I've understood you correctly here, but if I have, I'm not sure I agree with you. If I were a Seer in Nilp's game, I'd dream of Lhuna asap!

As for what we should do today, I'd started combing through spawn's posts this morning but I now find I've been called away. By the time I get back, a lot more people will be around (I expect) and a consensus may already have been reached. Oh well, I'll try to be as helpful as I can when I get back.

But, oh woe! Four innocents gone, including our incomparable Seer-spawn - this is not looking good, villagers....

[the guy who be short]

Day 1


Post 7

~

Post 17

Jokingly reprimands Cailin for unreasoned vote. Nothing serious, as it wasn't really her fault and she had nothing to go on.

Post 30

Says Valier and I are probably not lovers. Damn right. We're not that stupid, are we, love?

Ambiguous regarding Cailin.

Post 124

Cailin, Eomer, TGWBS, lmp, Valier - ambiguous about us.

Says Lal could be seen as suspicious due to safe vote.

Says Kath's vote was weird.

Disagrees with tar-a, but says her vote is the best reasoned.

Celuien - says she doesn't look suspicious.

Glirdan - confused regarding him, but says he acts normal.

Farael - says he's acting normal.

Caralondien - not suspicious.

Post 128

Votes Eonwe. Says Lhuna makes sense.

Post 129

~

Post 132

~


Day 2


Post 151

Says Anguirel's death could point to Kath and Eomer, and could not.

Says Ang's death could make Glirdan look bad, but she doesn't support this theory.

Post 164

Says Lhuna needs closer examining. Points at her "I was afraid Ang may have been a bold Seer" statement.

Says Form's tie-making is interesting and risky.

Post 166

Not suspicious of Naria, because she's acting normally.

Post 175

~

Post 193

Points out to Eomer that Kath had spoken before Ang accused her. She also had to point this out to tar-a.

Tells Lhuna that votes saving Garin don't tell us much.

Post 199

Snaps at Eonwe for not suspecting anybody, but says she won't vote again because there are better candidates. [Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

Wants to hear from Naria.

Post 207

Says wolves would not bother killing people to set up others, rather than trying to get Seers. Points at Kath or Lalaith and Cailin.

Says Ang probably died for protecting Garin and not for suspecting Kath.

Post 212

Votes Lhuna based on previous evidence, new behaviour, and a twisted quote.



Conclusion

I believe spawn did not dream of Lhuna on Night 2 and find her a wolf. I find it likely that she dreamt of Eonwe, whom she chastised for being unhelpful, but refused to vote for again. I see this as an attempt to get him to talk more and be a better asset to the village, now that she knew him to be innocent.

So, that meant we have only two useful dreams, as the Eonwe dream was wasted. From spawn, we can hope only to find one. As there is nobody she strongly defends, I see attempting to do so as a fruitless, if not dangerous, exercise.

So why was spawn killed? A threatened Lhuna wolf certainly looks likely, but perhaps they only wanted to get rid of the gender imbalance and chose somebody sensible who suspected few people and was under no suspicion herself.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

[the guy who be short]

A few cross-posts here.

Farael, you make sense, and you do not make sense. The sense you have made is enough to assuage my suspicion of you.

You make sense in saying Lhuna was not dreamt of. 'Twould be most unlikely.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I see no reason why Kath would be dreamt of on Night 2 after Day 1s proceedings. Unless Eomer had already been dreamt of and found innocent. Hmm.

But still, I don't think her accusation is anywhere strong enough to condemn Kath. She remains wholly ambiguous.


No wolves were dreamt of.

[Cailín]

[Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

I find this wholly unlikely.

1) Spawn is not the only Seer.

2) I find it very hard to believe - much harder to believe in fact, than a dream of Kath - the Seers would dream of Eonwe on the second night.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I am not saying you are wrong, but you risk underestimating people like Kath and the Seers. Loudmouths like Garin and TGWBS ( ) are far too good at getting themselves lynched early on, while players like Kath, newbie Caranlondien and Lalaith are better at staying undercover.

Besides, you are disagreeing with yourself here.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

That's the way of the game, but you are definitely all flip-floppy and ambiguous right now.

[Cailín]

Farael... how do you explain this if Spawn did not dream of Lhuna:

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense,

Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

You may have a point with regards to Kath... I don't know. However, Spawn was not the only Seer and it may be likely that her fellow Seer did find Lhuna's vote suspicious.

You managed to confuse me further Farael! Argh. Maybe Lhuna and Kath both are wolves, would that not be the easy solution? I shall have to consider this more, but I am hesitant to write my thoughts because I don't want to aid the wolves in finding the second Seer. Maybe I should stick to analysing voting patterns.