Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Cailín]

I think one of the biggest problems of this village is that we don't work together. We're divided in several factions disputing with each other and it's always only by one or two votes majority that an innocent is lynched.

I do agree with this, Thinlomien. Hopefully, with a few less villagers communicating may become a bit easier.

But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

I was the first to propose such a sensible strategy. However, I was under the impression that Nilp would have ensured a wolf team consisting of as many males as females. Ergo, the chance of finding a wolf would be much higher when lynching a suspicious male than a suspicious female.

That might be a bit presumptuous, I admit, I'm thinking too much about what I would have done were I the Mod of this game.

Cailin keeps defending Lhuna. Either she is guileless or desperately trying to keep her fellow werewolf from the gallows. Somehow guileless and Cailin don't seem to fit well in the same sentence.

You have the truth there, littlemanpoet, I cannot honestly claim to be an artless person. However, you missed another option. At that point in the game, I saw no reason to find Lhuna any more suspicious than anyone else.

But now things are different. Lhuna's vote for Lalaith never seemed incriminating to me. Neither did it seem so to Dancing Spawn at first, as Lhuna pointed out herself yesterDay. At the start of Day 2 however, Spawn seemed to be making a 180-degree turn, blaming Lhuna for her non-committing vote. This smells like a Seer trying to subtly point out a wolf to the rest of the village. I am not 100% certain, but I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

[Cailín]

spawn was under no real suspicion; she was writing lucid, smart posts; maybe they had pegged her as a Seer to boot; but I think she was killed for being a smart girl.

This seems more likely than the wolves trying to balance the sexes. They seem to have no reason to let the Lover live that long: they're with four and can afford a loss.

However, I somehow do believe they saw a Seer in Spawn. See my previous post.

[Farael]

Given my limited time, I’ll go through her posts and see who she defends, who she accuses and how strongly she does. I think it’s fair to guess that if she defends/accuses someone strongly, it might be someone she’s dreamt about. Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)
Day 1

Post 7
Her first post. Makes a few “in character” comments and then answers a few things that have been said before her. Nothing too remarkable.

Post 17
Answers more concerns… nothing I can see as a hint of having found a wolf or an ordo.

Post 30
Defends Valier and Cailin.

Post 124 (there was another post before that but it was just a comment that she was around and she’d be back after she caught up with all that had happened)… (and sigh, she commented on everyone. Ok, here we go… I won’t add her comments on the dead ones)

Disregards Cailin’s and TGWBS’s vote as it’s based in occupations

Finds Lailath’s vote somewhat suspicious

Finds Kath’s vote somewhat weird.

Thinks that Tar-a’s vote was well reasoned, although she disagrees with her.

Does not find Celuien’s vote suspicious

Finds LMP’s vote disconcerting but not exactly suspicious

Thinks Glirdan has not been far too out of his normal self, but expresses some concern over his vote.

Thinks I’m acting as expected, although she disagrees with what I think

Thinks that Naria is also being her usual self, although Spawn doesn’t like her vote

Thinks that Caranlondien is not suspicious

Does not like Valier’s vote but thinks that she cannot tell much from it.

Post 128

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense, votes for Eonwe (but obviously, she has not dreamt of him as we know he’s not a wolf.

Post 129
Jokes about SamwiseGamgee making a wolfish slip-up

Post 132
Jokes around with Formen.

End of the day, my thoughts so far:

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

For possible wolves:
Lailath
Kath


For possible innocents:
Valier
Cailin
Lhuna

Day 2
Post 151
(Goes through Anguirel’s posts, I won’t comment on that but on her thoughts about other villagers)

Thinks that we should not disregard our suspicions of Kath after the night’s death.

Mildly defends Glirdan

Post 164
Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

Post 166
Analyzes Naria, Seems to think that Naria is innocent first, but then says that “a horrible thought just occurred her” and that Naria might not be as innocent as she thought.

Post 175
Explains Thinlomien that Naria did not slip up on something she said.

Post 193
Still argues that we should not get our minds off Kath

Defends Naria again against accusations of a slip up

Then she answers something Lhuna said, but I’m not sure what she means.

Post 199
Tells Eonwe to explain more her thought process

Wants to hear more from Naria

Post 207
Again comments that we should not get our sights off Kath

Post 212
Votes for Lhuna based on a comment made by her (Lhuna) and the arguments made by other villagers.

End of day

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect, and given that there are 4 wolves, there are still plenty of villagers and another seer, it’s (very) likely that Spawn did not want to risk voting for a wolf and blowing up her cover so soon… and thus she voted for her most likely to be a wolf unknown.

Now, I’m not saying that Lhuna is NOT a wolf for sure… all I’m saying is that Spawn probably did not dream of her on Night 2 and it sure looks as if she was pointing at Kath very subtly, yet very consistently.

Ok, that’s all I have for now…. I think that Kath is a wolf and I shall vote for her today. I ask of you fellow villagers, go through Spawns posts by yourself and tell me if I’m wrong…. I’m sure you will agree

P.S: That was not a seer hint or anything like that.... it was just the confindence that comes from a well done reasoning.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Farael

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Maybe it was well done reasoning. But it was all based on your summaries of posts instead of quotes. How can we be sure you summarized correctly, or even with innocent intent? It looks more like a trumped up story than solid reasoning, as there are not real facts in your post.

And villagers, let's please stop casting votes based on what annoys us? Annoyances are highly subjective and tell us little about the suspected person, a lot more about ourselves. So Eonwe wasn't being helpful; he wasn't causing any real problems either. We should be more concerned about villagers that are casting suspicion where it ought not to rest than people who vote on a whim, or declare themselves werewolves. Such folks are distractors. As to Guy, his declaration that he is a werewolf is only one fact out of many facing us. Let's please not let it carry more wait, nor less, than it should.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, I've scanned everything so far. Not read carefully, just scanned ... to get a general sense of the arguments.

On Farael: 2 possibilities occur to me:

1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.

2. He could be a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love.

I suggest that we double lynch Lhuna and Farael today, and clear up this confusion.

[Farael]

Ok, I lied... I haven't gone to bed yet, but what keeps me up is not really werewolf related.

Anyway,

LMP you are a smart man.... there's no denying that. But I never meant my posts to be The One List of Evidence..... I bothered to add "Post number" so that you all could go back and look at it. Humor me, do it... you will find (I hope) the same thing I did. Just make sure you go through all the posts I mentioned and you look carefully enough. Remember, this is a game of details.

And if you think I'm the male lover, why don't you lynch me and Kath? or Lhuna and Kath? if Lhuna and I are the lovers, then we'll die together.... but given that at least I'm innocent, I know it won't happen. As I (tried to) show before, I will let myself be lynched if it's for the better of the village... but I don't think that I have been rendered useless just yet. Maybe this is another of my crazy theories and feel free to prove me wrong. But until you do, I will still have Kath as my prime suspect and Lhuna as a possibility for later on....

Edit: Cross posted with Tar-a.... you forget one thing though, what if all the wolves happened to be female? I mean, if it was random, it is plausible to happen.... so if we embark ourselves in a "Let's lynch the males" campaign, we might find that all of a sudden the wolves change their collective minds and get rid of a male as well.... finding the traitor in their midst.

Furthermore, what if the Seer is male?

I think it's too early for TGWBS's plan.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think the wolves are, for the most part, staying out of this Seer talk. They want the villagers to get in a tangle all by themselves.

I think we should double-lynch Kath and Lhuna. The day after, Glirdan and Farael.

[littlemanpoet]

Obviously, being in a werewolf village is a gamble in itself. However, playing the odds with possible percentages has a real chance of backfiring. The only number that I trust in your maths analysis is the 100% for a male lover. That one's obvious. But all the other numbers could prove disastrously wrong. Maybe all the werewolves are women. Think about it: the Mod God probably randomly picked roles first, getting his 2 werewolves and 2 seers, and then from the werewolves picked a lover, and from the innocents (minus seers obviously) picked the ordo lover. That means that, probabilities nonetheless, there could be all women werewolves. Obviously I can't know this, but I don't want to discount it either.

Far better to go with a thorough combing of every word said by everyone. I don't trust in probabilities, though your offering of them gives me hope that you're not a werewolf yourself.

[Lalaith]

Quickly popping in here -
I just want to say that I don't think we should lynch anyone before they've had a chance to say something. The reason should be obvious....

[Gurthang]

First off, sorry for the posts after Day ended yesterday. I had just jumped into reading without checking the end or the admin thread. Our dear Prophet has told me the posts can remain, which is good, because I don't have to retype my thoughts now.

Later I'll finish up the reading and catch up on everything. Oi, long day coming...

[tar-ancalime]

from Guy: There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.

This isn't the whole story. Your Day 6 should read: 0,6 because when we finally get the male Lover (assuming we get him last, worst-case scenario) the female Lover dies too.

That leaves 6 people. Real worst-case? Three innocents, three wolves. Game over.

I think you have an intriguing idea, but it's one that we can't let play out to this conclusion.

This is assuming that at least three wolves are women, which is unlikely, but if the wolves were chosen at random it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[tar-ancalime]

from Cailin:

I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

Interesting idea. Are you saying that the Seers decided spawn should "alert the village," even to the point of sacrificing herself? Because I agree with you that spawn's pursuit of Lhuna yesterday looks like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. However, I'd discounted that out of hand because, well, it looks a little too much like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. I would have imagined spawn to be more subtle than that. But there it is--spawn is dead, Lhuna is alive, we still have a Seer, and as for my previous post, I did say it was a crackpot theory. It may be that the simplest solution is the best. Lhuna? Care to convince us otherwise?

I still think there may be something, even a tiny nugget of something, in my crackpot theory--I really think the wolves (a) know who the Lover wolf is, and (b) think it's expedient at this point to keep the Lovers alive...for a while. They're in no danger yet, and as long as we villagers are talking about Lovers they've got conversations in which to hide.

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)

No, the Seers were in communication with each other, but they chose one person to dream about each Night. That means we don't have double the amount of dreams, but tthe dreams spawn already had are not lost with her death.

You are very sure that spawn did not dream of Lhuna. I'm not sure I follow your logic here--even if I concede the point that spawn thought Lhuna was innocent (which I'm not ready to do, in addition to the fact that we don't know what the other Seer thought at the time), it can be just as important for Seers to build up a list of proven innocents as to target wolves. We don't know what the Seers' strategy was, nor what it will be now that there is only one left.

[Farael]

Well Tar-a, I don't think it's logical to make a list of known innocents this early on the game.... those lists "make themselves" as the seers choose the wrong people to dream of. Why in Eru's name would they dream of someone they think innocent when they (obviously, as spawn did) had some suspects?

The logic is quite simple, actually. And the fact that the seers have only one dream makes it more likely. On Day 1 there should be plenty of suspicious people to dream of... why dream about someone that either of the seers thinks Innocent?

And remember, I'm saying that Spawn thought that Lhuna was innocent ON DAY 1... that changed on day 2, but it was too late for her dream anyway. Spawn did not mistrust Lhuna until the end of the day, which means (to me) that she was swayed during the day by the arguments made. And she decided to vote for Lhuna rather than Kath (whom she knew a wolf... or so my theory goes) because the wolves had already ridden themselves of someone who had voiced loud suspicions of Kath and it's too early to sacrifice a seer for a wolf. Thus, she hinted subtly that we should not forget Kath. When she said so, I thought that spawn was just sort of agreeing with me.... now I think that it was even more than that, she was saying that Kath is not innocent as we may think her to be.

I know I have a bit of a reputation for having crazy theories, but think about it.... Spawn did not suspect Lhuna until mid day 2.... and she has steadfastly suspected (and hinted that we should not think innocent) Kath.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin:

Those two comments by Spawn were made on the same day!!! A seer would not change her views of a wolf she's going after mid-day. I'm not trying to say that Lhuna is not a wolf though and you might be on to something when you say that maybe both women are wolves... but I think that Spawn's change of mind during the day shows that she was going after a "wolfishly looking" unknown rather than a known wolf. There is no reason for a seer who has chosen to go all out against a wolf to change their views mid-day. If anything, it will make her accusations seem like a flip-flop.

[Cailín]

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

I see now Spawn did not immediately attack Lhuna, but she did shortly after she made her first post. I can think of merely two reasons why Seer-Spawn would attack anyone so strongly. It is not like her to be very outspoken in her accusations anyway:

1) She did not believe Lhuna to be wolvish at all and wished to delude the true wolves.

2) She was almost convinced to the point of sure that Lhuna is a wolf. She must have known that she would be a likely target - she is always a likely target - for the wolves had Lhuna been lynched and found guilty. I just don't believe she would be so easily swayed by the other villagers.

--

Your ideas concerning Kath are not at all far-fetched, Farael, but I think you are dismissing the Lhuna case too easily.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

If that's the case, then I must correct my notes. Still, I think that

*Spawn seemed to be rather swayed by the villagers about Lhuna

*Spawn was not swayed at all with regards to Kath, even if some people argued in Kath's favour.

*Odds are against the Seers having found two wolves (specially now that I know they only get one dream/night)

Now, I still find Kath more suspicious than Lhuna... and I think the big fuss made about Lhuna's vote is misguided. Sure, Lhuna was (Hope you forgive me... and that the ProphetNilp does not smite me in a fit of brotherly love) pretty silly as it would (and did) make her look as lupine as it gets.... but that's the only strong piece of evidence we have against her

Her edgyness can be attributed at the fact that many people were suspecting her.

Now, I don't want to defend Lhuna, but it seems the best way to explain my thoughts about Kath... I think that one of them is a wolf (at least) and I think that it's more likely than Kath is a wolf than Lhuna. It might just be me, but I think it's better to take a risk trying to clear the air now rather than later....

Here's what I propose, feel free to reject it:
*We lynch Kath, whom I still think is the most suspicious

*If Kath is a wolf, we celebrate

*If Kath is not a wolf and Lhuna does nothing to change our collective minds, we lynch her

*If neither Kath nor Lhuna turn out to be wolves, I shall start thinking that I'm not as smart as I feel right now.....

*If either is a wolf.... it will be up to each of us to decide whether or not we think it's likely that both will be. I am uncertain on that matter and so I can't really plan for it.

I will get a lot of heat for "trying to sway the village" but I have my reasons and I'm sticking to them. If anyone can come up with a better plan, speak up.... It might be a little early on the day for me to propose a plan as wolves could latch on to it, create a bandwagon and hide in the background noise..... but I am "so certain" that either Kath or Lhuna are a wolf and pretty much convinced that Kath is rather than Lhuna that I am hoping you all will agree.

Now, THAT WAS NOT A SEER HINT. Please, note that I wrote ""so certain"" (in between "" thingies that I can't recall how they are called) and "pretty much convinced".... I'm basing this certainty and convincement on my reasoning, in which I believe strongly.... And if you don't think I am, maybe you should learn your history and read up on the Eighteenth time a village has been infected by wolves *hint, hint*... and sorry Nilp but it IS in itallics... so it's allowed, right?

[the guy who be short]

Day 1


Post 7

~

Post 17

Jokingly reprimands Cailin for unreasoned vote. Nothing serious, as it wasn't really her fault and she had nothing to go on.

Post 30

Says Valier and I are probably not lovers. Damn right. We're not that stupid, are we, love?

Ambiguous regarding Cailin.

Post 124

Cailin, Eomer, TGWBS, lmp, Valier - ambiguous about us.

Says Lal could be seen as suspicious due to safe vote.

Says Kath's vote was weird.

Disagrees with tar-a, but says her vote is the best reasoned.

Celuien - says she doesn't look suspicious.

Glirdan - confused regarding him, but says he acts normal.

Farael - says he's acting normal.

Caralondien - not suspicious.

Post 128

Votes Eonwe. Says Lhuna makes sense.

Post 129

~

Post 132

~


Day 2


Post 151

Says Anguirel's death could point to Kath and Eomer, and could not.

Says Ang's death could make Glirdan look bad, but she doesn't support this theory.

Post 164

Says Lhuna needs closer examining. Points at her "I was afraid Ang may have been a bold Seer" statement.

Says Form's tie-making is interesting and risky.

Post 166

Not suspicious of Naria, because she's acting normally.

Post 175

~

Post 193

Points out to Eomer that Kath had spoken before Ang accused her. She also had to point this out to tar-a.

Tells Lhuna that votes saving Garin don't tell us much.

Post 199

Snaps at Eonwe for not suspecting anybody, but says she won't vote again because there are better candidates. [Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

Wants to hear from Naria.

Post 207

Says wolves would not bother killing people to set up others, rather than trying to get Seers. Points at Kath or Lalaith and Cailin.

Says Ang probably died for protecting Garin and not for suspecting Kath.

Post 212

Votes Lhuna based on previous evidence, new behaviour, and a twisted quote.



Conclusion

I believe spawn did not dream of Lhuna on Night 2 and find her a wolf. I find it likely that she dreamt of Eonwe, whom she chastised for being unhelpful, but refused to vote for again. I see this as an attempt to get him to talk more and be a better asset to the village, now that she knew him to be innocent.

So, that meant we have only two useful dreams, as the Eonwe dream was wasted. From spawn, we can hope only to find one. As there is nobody she strongly defends, I see attempting to do so as a fruitless, if not dangerous, exercise.

So why was spawn killed? A threatened Lhuna wolf certainly looks likely, but perhaps they only wanted to get rid of the gender imbalance and chose somebody sensible who suspected few people and was under no suspicion herself.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

[Cailín]

Farael... how do you explain this if Spawn did not dream of Lhuna:

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense,

Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

You may have a point with regards to Kath... I don't know. However, Spawn was not the only Seer and it may be likely that her fellow Seer did find Lhuna's vote suspicious.

You managed to confuse me further Farael! Argh. Maybe Lhuna and Kath both are wolves, would that not be the easy solution? I shall have to consider this more, but I am hesitant to write my thoughts because I don't want to aid the wolves in finding the second Seer. Maybe I should stick to analysing voting patterns.